Great Article on QB Zone vs Man

[Mikie2times]

Came across this and noticed it had a lot of Allen/Bills content. Really great article breaking down QB performance vs coverage type. 

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-vs-man-and-zone-coverage

 

Calls out how teams play a lot of man vs us because we shred zone. Also that we have a very high rate of open WR’s vs zone. Also touched on the concept that the better man QB’s might be that way more a a result of better WR’s. Which makes a ton of sense and why that number one or high end WR is still a big deal. FYI the Lions play the most man in the NFL.

Edited 1 hour ago by Mikie2times

[bigduke6]

nice.  either way,  we shred zone,  or they play man,  which of course necessitates a spy on JA17,  which takes a player out of coverage.  seems good to me.

[GunnerBill]

It's a good piece, and the overall conclusion that the trick to being great against man might just be having true high end man beating receivers is right in my view. However, on the opposite end you have to have really talented DBs to be successful playing a lot of man coverage. The Jags for instance tried to play man vs Buffalo in week 3 when the Bills were very much still bedding in Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper was still running downfield while Deshaun Watson got sacked.... they were shredded. Why? Because Tyson Campbell was out and the rest of their DBs just aren't good enough to play man coverage even against a mediocre set of Bills receivers. Similarly over the years the Dolphins have tried to play a ton of man against the Bills, and Josh has been excellent against them. Even since they have had Jalen Ramsey, Allen has just looked at the defense, worked out man or zone and if it's man don't throw at Ramsey, throw somewhere else and the others won't be able to carry their assignments. 

 

The Chiefs, missing their #1 outside corner Jaylen Watson, took a different tack in week 11 and as a team that normally tries to play the Bills in a lot of man coverage they switched to primarily playing zone. That was likely in part to protect Nazeeh Johnson who was starting opposite Trent McDuffie outside and Chamarri Conner who has replaced McDuffie in the slot since Watson's injury. It didn't work. The Bills targeted Johnson 12 times and had 9 completions for 103 yards and Conner 6 times for 5 completions and 55 yards. But if you are Steve Spagnuolo you probably say to yourself "if they got cooked that bad in zone maybe it was a good thing I didn't play more man."

 

So while there is definitely a question for the Bills as we look toward the post season in respect of "can their receivers win consistently enough vs man coverage?" (and I think that especially applies outside the numbers) there is a question for the teams we are going to face as well as to whether they trust their DBs enough to play us in man, and if they do, does it work?