AFC playoff race

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

Yesterday was a bad day for us.  What is even more frustrating is Chiefs are pretty much a lock for AFC championship game with getting the faltering Steelers or Texans in Divisional.  I think our best case is Harbaugh bowl brings LA to us and not BMore in divisional, assuming we get out of wildcard.  I really hope we don’t get Cincy. Oh well.  Beat the Jets and let’s Buckle up. Go Bills. 

Why on Earth is everyone in this thread afraid of a Cincinnati team that has the worst defense in football and a very tiny chance of even making the playoffs?  
 

Can we be confident that the Chargers will win one of either at NE or at LV?  If so, they’re in.  Lose both is close to 0%.

 

That leaves Cincy needing to beat Denver.  Ok that’s in their hands.  Let’s be VERY generous and give them 75% odds.   Then they go on the road against Pittsburgh who still can win the division.  That’s 50/50 at best.  Denver would also need to lose at home against KC who has zero motivation while Denver, who basically already beat them in KC has everything to play for.  Generous again: 50/50.  .75*.5*.5= 18.75% to even get that far.

 

Is Indy really going to lose to either the Giants or the Jaguars?  Really?  I’ll give Indy 75% chance against the Giants and 80% chance against Jax meaning 60% chance they win both so 40% chance they lose at least one.  18.75* .4….down to 7.5%….

 

Now the Fish have to lose against either Cle or NYJ.  I think this is more likely than Indy losing one….maybe 50/50.  
 

So trying to be super generous to Cincy they have a 3.75% chance of making the playoffs.  And if they get there they still have a terrible defense that needs to play against #17.

 

Shirley you can’t be serious with this crap.

[RichStadiumGuy]

24 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Why on Earth is everyone in this thread afraid of a Cincinnati team that has the worst defense in football and a very tiny chance of even making the playoffs?  
 

Can we be confident that the Chargers will win one of either at NE or at LV?  If so, they’re in.  Lose both is close to 0%.

 

That leaves Cincy needing to beat Denver.  Ok that’s in their hands.  Let’s be VERY generous and give them 75% odds.   Then they go on the road against Pittsburgh who still can win the division.  That’s 50/50 at best.  Denver would also need to lose at home against KC who has zero motivation while Denver, who basically already beat them in KC has everything to play for.  Generous again: 50/50.  .75*.5*.5= 18.75% to even get that far.

 

Is Indy really going to lose to either the Giants or the Jaguars?  Really?  I’ll give Indy 75% chance against the Giants and 80% chance against Jax meaning 60% chance they win both so 40% chance they lose at least one.  18.75* .4….down to 7.5%….

 

Now the Fish have to lose against either Cle or NYJ.  I think this is more likely than Indy losing one….maybe 50/50.  
 

So trying to be super generous to Cincy they have a 3.75% chance of making the playoffs.  And if they get there they still have a terrible defense that needs to play against #17.

 

Shirley you can’t be serious with this crap.

That's a whole lot of numbers you've thrown around there but they all add up to zero in the making any sense department. If one didn't know any better they'd be inclined to think that you're some kind of mathematical wizard or something?

[Gman10]

36 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Why on Earth is everyone in this thread afraid of a Cincinnati team that has the worst defense in football and a very tiny chance of even making the playoffs?  
 

Can we be confident that the Chargers will win one of either at NE or at LV?  If so, they’re in.  Lose both is close to 0%.

 

That leaves Cincy needing to beat Denver.  Ok that’s in their hands.  Let’s be VERY generous and give them 75% odds.   Then they go on the road against Pittsburgh who still can win the division.  That’s 50/50 at best.  Denver would also need to lose at home against KC who has zero motivation while Denver, who basically already beat them in KC has everything to play for.  Generous again: 50/50.  .75*.5*.5= 18.75% to even get that far.

 

Is Indy really going to lose to either the Giants or the Jaguars?  Really?  I’ll give Indy 75% chance against the Giants and 80% chance against Jax meaning 60% chance they win both so 40% chance they lose at least one.  18.75* .4….down to 7.5%….

 

Now the Fish have to lose against either Cle or NYJ.  I think this is more likely than Indy losing one….maybe 50/50.  
 

So trying to be super generous to Cincy they have a 3.75% chance of making the playoffs.  And if they get there they still have a terrible defense that needs to play against #17.

 

Shirley you can’t be serious with this crap.

because Bengals/Burrow can put up serious numbers. Their D isn't much worse than Bills (aside from red zone) which is probably more important, but its still the worst of the 3 possible teams (Broncos, Fins and Bengals)

 

Edited 20 hours ago by Gman10

[Kelly to Allen]

56 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Why on Earth is everyone in this thread afraid of a Cincinnati team that has the worst defense in football and a very tiny chance of even making the playoffs?  
 

Can we be confident that the Chargers will win one of either at NE or at LV?  If so, they’re in.  Lose both is close to 0%.

 

That leaves Cincy needing to beat Denver.  Ok that’s in their hands.  Let’s be VERY generous and give them 75% odds.   Then they go on the road against Pittsburgh who still can win the division.  That’s 50/50 at best.  Denver would also need to lose at home against KC who has zero motivation while Denver, who basically already beat them in KC has everything to play for.  Generous again: 50/50.  .75*.5*.5= 18.75% to even get that far.

 

Is Indy really going to lose to either the Giants or the Jaguars?  Really?  I’ll give Indy 75% chance against the Giants and 80% chance against Jax meaning 60% chance they win both so 40% chance they lose at least one.  18.75* .4….down to 7.5%….

 

Now the Fish have to lose against either Cle or NYJ.  I think this is more likely than Indy losing one….maybe 50/50.  
 

So trying to be super generous to Cincy they have a 3.75% chance of making the playoffs.  And if they get there they still have a terrible defense that needs to play against #17.

 

Shirley you can’t be serious with this crap.

 

 

Past trauma particularly with McDermott's defense has set in massive PTSD in the buffalo sports consciousness. 

 

13 seconds is like a Greek tragedy in everyone's mind 

 

One could argue our existence as Bills fans is basically a greek tragedy 

 

We're the red Sox or cubs for decades before they finally won a title. 

 

I am personally always asking, " how are they going to screw this up this time?"

 

During the 13 seconds after Allen took the lead. I literally went outside and couldn't watch the game. I knew they were going to screw it up....

Edited 20 hours ago by Kelly to Allen

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, RichStadiumGuy said:

That's a whole lot of numbers you've thrown around there but they all add up to zero in the making any sense department. If one didn't know any better they'd be inclined to think that you're some kind of mathematical wizard or something?

Huh?  Cincy is in an almost impossible position regarding making the playoffs.  If you can’t make sense of that I’m not sure what to say.

1 hour ago, Gman10 said:

because Bengals/Burrow can put up serious numbers. Their D isn't much worse than Bills (aside from red zone) which is probably more important, but its still the worst of the 3 possible teams (Broncos, Fins and Bengals)

 

Of the teams you list, the one with by far the best chance of making the playoffs is Denver.  After that, the Colts have by far the second best chance but you haven’t even listed them.  The Fish are next a long way behind the other two and Cincy is a long way behind the Fish.

Edited 19 hours ago by 4merper4mer

[Gman10]

24 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Huh?  Cincy is in an almost impossible position regarding making the playoffs.  If you can’t make sense of that I’m not sure what to say.

Of the teams you list, the one with by far the best chance of making the playoffs is Denver.  After that, the Colts have by far the second best chance but you haven’t even listed them.  The Fish are next a long way behind the other two and Cincy is a long way behind the Fish.

Yes, but Stranger Things have happened and it's definitely a possibility. And out of that possibility, they are the team I would fear the most.

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

Yes, but Stranger Things have happened and it's definitely a possibility. And out of that possibility, they are the team I would fear the most.

 

I doubt the Chargers lose to the Pats. Even if the Bengals beat the Broncos, they still have to hope KC's backups go into Denver next week and beat the Broncos. That probably won't happen either. 

[Gman10]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

I doubt the Chargers lose to the Pats. Even if the Bengals beat the Broncos, they still have to hope KC's backups go into Denver next week and beat the Broncos. That probably won't happen either. 

Right. I agree it's a longshot, but it's still possible.

[chongli]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

I doubt the Chargers lose to the Pats. Even if the Bengals beat the Broncos, they still have to hope KC's backups go into Denver next week and beat the Broncos. That probably won't happen either. 

 

I doubt KC rests its starters two weeks in a row.

[Fleezoid]

5 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

 

Past trauma particularly with McDermott's defense has set in massive PTSD in the buffalo sports consciousness. 

 

13 seconds is like a Greek tragedy in everyone's mind 

 

One could argue our existence as Bills fans is basically a greek tragedy 

 

We're the red Sox or cubs for decades before they finally won a title. 

 

I am personally always asking, " how are they going to screw this up this time?"

 

During the 13 seconds after Allen took the lead. I literally went outside and couldn't watch the game. I knew they were going to screw it up....

 

That's been my thought the entire season. It's conditioning. And there's still plenty of ways a playoff game will go South. We just don't know what that is....yet. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Messing around with the playoff machine, If the browns can upset the ravens in week 18 (never know with a division game) And Steelers win, ravens may end up As the 5, and steelers As the 3. That would Really be ideal. 

[djp14150]

37 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

I doubt KC rests its starters two weeks in a row.

thry are resting them just one game against denver since they already played.  Mohones and Kelce and their top 2 RBs will not play, Jones and a  few of the other big players on D will not play.

 

if denver beats bengals clinching a spot, thry coukd be deciding who they want to play based on earlier game results

 

as 7 they are at Bills

at 6 at North

at 5 at Houston 

 

[Boatdrinks]

6 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

 

Past trauma particularly with McDermott's defense has set in massive PTSD in the buffalo sports consciousness. 

 

13 seconds is like a Greek tragedy in everyone's mind 

 

One could argue our existence as Bills fans is basically a greek tragedy 

 

We're the red Sox or cubs for decades before they finally won a title. 

 

I am personally always asking, " how are they going to screw this up this time?"

 

During the 13 seconds after Allen took the lead. I literally went outside and couldn't watch the game. I knew they were going to screw it up....

That must be a tough way to watch sports. After the last Allen touchdown Gabe Davis touchdown I was looking up AFCCG tickets on my phone. 

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Ravens are scary, goodluck stopping Henry.

But they also have lost 5 games..there is a footprint somewhere there that shows how to beat them.

[thronethinker]

17 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

 

During the 13 seconds after Allen took the lead. I literally went outside and couldn't watch the game. I knew they were going to screw it up....

I am convinced that had Buffalo won in KC that year they would have blown it against Cincinnati, and the narrative would be different but still the same.

Edited 3 hours ago by thronethinker

[DrBob806]

19 hours ago, Beast said:

The Ravens have had the best pass defense in the NFL the past month.

They're still vulnerable IMHO.

 

Madibuke & Hamilton are their only above average players on D.

[Dr.Sack]

If the Bills lose to a 41 year old QB on a bum knee they have no shot in the playoffs, or deserve the 2 seed. Take care of business and get a bye week. Meanwhile KC has a 2-week bye. And the Ravens will be gassed having to play week 18 to win their division. Relax Bills fan we got this.

[cd1]

18 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

 

Past trauma particularly with McDermott's defense has set in massive PTSD in the buffalo sports consciousness. 

 

13 seconds is like a Greek tragedy in everyone's mind 

 

One could argue our existence as Bills fans is basically a greek tragedy 

 

We're the red Sox or cubs for decades before they finally won a title. 

 

I am personally always asking, " how are they going to screw this up this time?"

 

During the 13 seconds after Allen took the lead. I literally went outside and couldn't watch the game. I knew they were going to screw it up....

PTSD indeed.

 

Many fans are too young to have experienced "Wide right", "Music City Miracle", those and the most recent "13 seconds" has left a lot of us too afraid to hope. 

 

Some ridiculous fluke or twist of fete swoops in and again leaves us in total shock and disbelief that victory was snatched away, yet again, in the very last moment.

 

Perhaps some of us just care too much and the disappointment is too crushing. 

 

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

I’m sure they’ll be a separate thread based on the possible playoff matchups soon but:

 

The most likely scenario has us playing either Denver or the Chargers here at home in the wildcard round. I would love to see a rookie quarterback come here. The chargers I’m a little bit more concerned about. But not really. 
 

Then the divisional round match up which would most likely be Baltimore coming here. With three linebackers on the field that’s a different game. And at home I think we have a clear advantage.
 

Then the dreaded championship game at Kansas City. We all know the bills can beat this team. I can’t even begin to express the pit of misery I would be in if we lost them again in the championship game. But you miss all the shots you don’t take and I still believe in my heart this is our year. The only thing that’s going to annoy me is having to watch the celebration on TV instead of in the stadium. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

23 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

Yesterday was a bad day for us.  What is even more frustrating is Chiefs are pretty much a lock for AFC championship game with getting the faltering Steelers or Texans in Divisional.  I think our best case is Harbaugh bowl brings LA to us and not BMore in divisional, assuming we get out of wildcard.  I really hope we don’t get Cincy. Oh well.  Beat the Jets and let’s Buckle up. Go Bills. 

It was a great day for us if your main concern is cincy in the playoffs lol.  Kc will be resting starters against Denver now which makes it nearly impossible for cincy to get in. 
 

they’d need Denver to lose out which seemed likely if the chiefs had something to play for (they no longer do), Indy to lose out against a cupcake schedule, and Miami to lose out against a very easy schedule even if the bengals beat Denver this week 

Edited 1 hour ago by Generic_Bills_Fan