AFC playoff race

[Gregg]

I still think the Chargers and Broncos get those final spots for the AFC playoffs.

[BearNorth]

Am I the only one a bit worried that with most of our starting DB's & LB's nicked up or worse, that resting them will lead us to another sputtering first half like we saw yesterday in the first round of the playoffs?  Remembering how horrible we looked in the first half vs. the Cards after a similar amount of downtime.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, BearNorth said:

Am I the only one a bit worried that with most of our starting DB's & LB's nicked up or worse, that resting them will lead us to another sputtering first half like we saw yesterday in the first round of the playoffs?  Remembering how horrible we looked in the first half vs. the Cards after a similar amount of downtime.

 

As long as the #1 seed is still in play the Bills won't be resting anyone. If the Chiefs clinch the #1 seed, then maybe it's a different story but the Bills still have to clinch the #2 seed from the Steelers/Ravens.

[Matt_In_NH]

33 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I still think the Chargers and Broncos get those final spots for the AFC playoffs.

Probably...Chargers have two cupcakes and they need 1 win so they likely are in.   The Broncos have to play the Bengals and Chiefs....if they lose both then the 7 seed might be Colts (two cupcakes) or Bengals (Steelers week 17).

 

I think the Bills likely with the 2 seed will play Broncos, Colts or Bengals in that order of probability.  I feel like it is reasonable it could be the Colts.  It could also be the Dolphins if lots of improbably things happen.

 

I see the Bengals have a better shot than the Colts, not exactly sure why....I get they are better than the Colts but the Colts play Giants and Jags and Bengals play Broncos/Steelers.

Edited 5 hours ago by Matt_In_NH

[BearNorth]

9 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

As long as the #1 seed is still in play the Bills won't be resting anyone. If the Chiefs clinch the #1 seed, then maybe it's a different story but the Bills still have to clinch the #2 seed from the Steelers/Ravens.

By resting I meant - Hamlin, Rapp, Douglas, and Milano were all inactive yesterday.  If we hadn't already clinched division and were playing someone other than the 3-11 Pats at home, would any of those guys have played? 

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

By resting I meant - Hamlin, Rapp, Douglas, and Milano were all inactive yesterday.  If we hadn't already clinched division and were playing someone other than the 3-11 Pats at home, would any of those guys have played? 

 

Good point. I wasn't surprised yesterday was close. Sometimes those "easy" games are the hardest to win. Divisional games are usually close anyway as the teams are familiar with each other.

[Seventeen]

 

I'd be fine with KC beating Pitt on Xmas Day so #2 is locked up and we could rest Josh (and others) part of next week and all of week 18.

 

 

[Mr Info]

51 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

 

I'd be fine with KC beating Pitt on Xmas Day so #2 is locked up and we could rest Josh (and others) part of next week and all of week 18.

 

 

#2 seed is not locked up if KC beats Pitt. Ravens are still in play for #2.

Edited 3 hours ago by Mr Info

[Matt_In_NH]

9 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

 

I'd be fine with KC beating Pitt on Xmas Day so #2 is locked up and we could rest Josh (and others) part of next week and all of week 18.

 

 

But that is not a thing

[Gregg]

Just now, Mr Info said:

#2 seed is not locked up if KC beats Pitt. 

 

Exactly if the Chiefs lock up the #1 seed and the Bills lock up the #2 seed with a win vs the Jets then I could see the starters playing only a series or two at most at NE before putting in the backups. The starters will play vs the Jets.

[Mr Info]

4 hours ago, harryS said:

…

The 14-1 Chiefs are not going to all of a sudden go 0-2 against mediocre teams with the 1 seed on the line.  That's not even pot or cocaine thinking, it's LSD.

 

The Chiefs will get the 1-seed and the bye and the best way to combat that is for the Bills to get our own de facto bye in Week 18.

Though I enjoy the fun mushrooms, I am not partaking right now & disagree with you.

The Steelers will have incentive to win their division and the Broncos may be playing to get in the playoffs so both these teams will be highly motivated vs Chiefs.

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Your stats are a bit deceiving.  
 

Goff thew 5 INT in one game.  That takes ratio to 7 TD and 5 INT.  Oh and Houston still lost this game.  

 

Allen passed for 131 playing in a game with a broken hand and without his best WR.  It still took a band sequence at the end for Buffalo to lose.  

 

Jordan Love was working his way back from injury and Houston still lost.

 

So that leaves 1 game against Tua.  
 

I don’t think their defense is as “elite” as you.  
 

But I guess we'll find out in 3 days against Baltimore.  

 

Sure - but I don’t think either of the scenarios happen.  Then again, I didn’t think Buffalo would only beat NE by 3 points

They're in the top 5 in just about every defensive metric advanced or otherwise and news flash, you dismissing something doesn't mean its actually dismissed nor it's even logical. You're talking about wins and losses as a way to discredit the defense they play then undermining it;s contribution to the games to somehow align with your argument which is very bizarre to be perfectly honest. Allen had the worst game of his career against them. Goff the worst game all season.

Edited 3 hours ago by Mikie2times

[JohnNord]

18 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

They're in the top 5 in just about every defensive metric advanced or otherwise and news flash, you dismissing something doesn't mean its actually dismissed nor it's even logical. You're talking about wins and losses as a way to discredit the defense they play then undermining it;s contribution to the games to somehow align with your argument which is very bizarre to be perfectly honest. Allen had the worst game of his career against them. Goff the worst game all season.

I’m not talking about wins and losses with Houston.  
 

If I was, I’d mention how the “great” defense gave up 30+ points to Will Levis and the Titans in a loss…. Or how a healthy Texans defense was boatraced in a big loss to Minnesota.  
 

Oh and by the way, as much as you love trashing the Buffalo defense.  Houston gave up the same number of points to a horrible NE team at full strength earlier this season.  

 

Besides the only reason I did anything is because you tried selectively using stats to prove their greatness that were heavily weighted by multiple games. 
 

Houston’s great defense has a chance to rebound against Baltimore in a few days. 
 

Let’s continue this conversation then.  

59 minutes ago, Mr Info said:

Though I enjoy the fun mushrooms, I am not partaking right now & disagree with you.

The Steelers will have incentive to win their division and the Broncos may be playing to get in the playoffs so both these teams will be highly motivated vs Chiefs.

I can see the Steelers keeping it close.   They are going to need to force turnovers which is possible versus Mahomes.   Not sure if Pickens plays, but if he does the entire offense should be Russ throwing moon balls to Pickens or Austin.  Whoever is not matched up with McDuffie.  KC’s defense is covering for CB2.  Joshua Williams really sucks and teams (like Buffalo) can have success throwing at him.  

 

Ultimately though, I think KC wraps it all up on Christmas Day.  Russ seems to be the type of QB that Spags has success game planning against  

Edited 3 hours ago by JohnNord

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I’m not talking about wins and losses with Houston.  
 

If I was, I’d mention how the “great” defense gave up 30+ points to Will Levis and the Titans in a loss…. Or how a healthy Texans defense was boatraced in a big loss to Minnesota.  
 

Oh and by the way, as much as you love trashing the Buffalo defense.  Houston gave up the same number of points to a horrible NE team at full strength earlier this season.  

 

Besides the only reason I did anything is because you tried selectively using stats to prove their greatness that were heavily weighted by multiple games. 
 

Houston’s great defense has a chance to rebound against Baltimore in a few days. 
 

Let’s continue this conversation then.  

 

In EPA they rank 4th and we rank 15th.

Since week 8 they rank 3rd and we rank 26th.

 

I'm harsh on the Bills and not them because our defense is trash. Houston's is not. Not very complicated.

 

I don't have to selectively pick games (which ironically you're actually doing in this post). 

 

 

 

[djp14150]

4 hours ago, Gman10 said:

I know. But he said Bangles win out is highly possible. Im just shocked he thinks Bangles beat Broncos, am I missing something?

If bengals best broncos since they play on Saturday.

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, Mr Info said:

#2 seed is not locked up if KC beats Pitt. Ravens are still in play for #2.

It is if the Bills beat the Jets. If the Chiefs beat the Steelers and Bills beat the Jets the Bills will be 13-3 and the Ravens will be 11-5 with one week to play locking the Bills into the 2 seed 

[djp14150]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Probably...Chargers have two cupcakes and they need 1 win so they likely are in.   The Broncos have to play the Bengals and Chiefs....if they lose both then the 7 seed might be Colts (two cupcakes) or Bengals (Steelers week 17).

 

I think the Bills likely with the 2 seed will play Broncos, Colts or Bengals in that order of probability.  I feel like it is reasonable it could be the Colts.  It could also be the Dolphins if lots of improbably things happen.

 

I see the Bengals have a better shot than the Colts, not exactly sure why....I get they are better than the Colts but the Colts play Giants and Jags and Bengals play Broncos/Steelers.

 

IF Bengals LL…..

 

these are the scenarios..

 

Cincy W week 17 beating broncos…

 

week 18 CIN beat PIT and 

MIA W IND W.   WC7 is    IND 

MIA W IND L.     WC 7 is. MIA 

MIA L IND W.  WC7 is  IND 

MIA L IND L WC 7 is.  CIN *

 

Week 18 CIN  L to PIT and 

MIA W IND W      WC 7 is IND

MIA W IND L.  WC 7 is.  MIA

MIA L IND W.  WC7 is.  DEN**

MIA L IND L. WC 7 is DEN***

 

if chargers go LL and denver W one  game…..much above would be the same except the *

* LAC 

** IND

***LAC 

 

 

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

Exactly if the Chiefs lock up the #1 seed and the Bills lock up the #2 seed with a win vs the Jets then I could see the starters playing only a series or two at most at NE before putting in the backups. The starters will play vs the Jets.

If both BAL and PT L on Xmas then Bills clinch #2 seed

 

if Josh is hurt he likely doesn’t play on Sunday but plays first half in NE to  stay fresh   If he’s good he plays into the 3rd ( after 1st possesion) then  rest next Sunday at Pats

[Kelly to Allen]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Am I the only one a bit worried that with most of our starting DB's & LB's nicked up or worse, that resting them will lead us to another sputtering first half like we saw yesterday in the first round of the playoffs?  Remembering how horrible we looked in the first half vs. the Cards after a similar amount of downtime.

No. They are pacing themselves for a historic playoff domination. 

 

They're are going to rest everyone week 18, manage a few others and then open up the most prolific playoff run in NFL history. 

 

They are going to completely annihilate everyone except for KC on the road. But I think there is a good chance that they destroy KC too... KC will play their heart out in arrowhead but it won't be enough. Similar to the Detroit game 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Kelly to Allen

[djp14150]

2 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

No. They are pacing themselves for a historic playoff domination. 

 

They're are going to rest everyone week 18, manage a few others and then open up the most prolific playoff run in NFL history. 

 

They are going to completely annihilate everyone except for KC on the road. But I think there is a good chance that they destroy KC too... KC will play their heart out in arrowhead but it won't be enough 

 

 

 

I don’t the details of the practice squad roster rules on how many can be elevated to play in one week whrn buffalo claims entire D is banged up.

 

 

[Kelly to Allen]

Buffalo will use the jets game as a playoff dress rehearsal. The 2 seed and a defacto bye week is in hand with a win. 

 

You'll see buffalo play at extremely high level vs the jets but still hold things back scheme wise. Josh probably won't run vs the jets. 

 

 

1 minute ago, djp14150 said:

I don’t the details of the practice squad roster rules on how many can be elevated to play in one week whrn buffalo claims entire D is banged up.

 

 

 

You can elevate 2 extra guys per week. 

 

Unlimited call ups are allowed in the playoffs.

 

So for example if the bills want to elevate Hyde for each playoff game they can. 

 

In the regular season you're only allowed to be called up 4x I think. Anything more and said player has to be signed to the 53.

 

There are other caveats and loopholes but that's the general rules