AFC playoff race

[skibum]

Lots of scenarios out there, but my hope is that the Bills can host Denver, and that somehow they can avoid both Baltimore and Pitt in round 2. I'm surprised Baltimore has slid so far -  A few weeks back, it looked like they would finish no worse than #3 seed. Watching the Ravens yesterday, I just could not understand why they didn't give the ball to Henry more. Stupid.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, skibum said:

Lots of scenarios out there, but my hope is that the Bills can host Denver, and that somehow they can avoid both Baltimore and Pitt in round 2. I'm surprised Baltimore has slid so far -  A few weeks back, it looked like they would finish no worse than #3 seed. Watching the Ravens yesterday, I just could not understand why they didn't give the ball to Henry more. Stupid.

 

Eagles are really good. Give them credit. Many fans say the Lions are the best team in the NFC and the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I think the Eagles are right there with the Lions. For the Eagles to get a win Baltimore after falling behind 9-0 was pretty impressive.

[zow2]

2 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Looking at the Chiefs schedule. I see them dropping some games especially the last two. Chargers won't be easy and neither will the Texans.

 

Chargers

at Browns

Texans

at Steelers 

at Broncos

 

They Absolutely should drop a couple and this Chargers game is one that we really need. KC has abused LA for years en route to AFC West dominance.  LA really wants this one as will Denver.  KC has to lose one of those games and hopefully at Pittsburgh too. 

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Looking at the Chiefs schedule. I see them dropping some games especially the last two. Chargers won't be easy and neither will the Texans.

 

Chargers

at Browns

Texans

at Steelers 

at Broncos

Greg, I’d add the Steelers who won again yesterday against the Ravens, and the Payton led Broncos.  You’re right in our agreement in that I just don’t see the Chiefs the way they are playing barely beating the Panthers and Raiders.  I’d lay $ they lose at least two of these games.  This isn’t the Chiefs if a couple of years ago lighting opponents up.  They’ve had a strong defense last year and this year, but the offense is anemic and the luck is ridiculous.

[HappyDays]

I really hope I'm wrong about the Chiefs and they somehow drop two games. I see the Bills finishing no worse than 14-3, and that record really does deserve the #1 seed and a bye.

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I really hope I'm wrong about the Chiefs and they somehow drop two games. I see the Bills finishing no worse than 14-3, and that record really does deserve the #1 seed and a bye.

 

The Chiefs can literally lose to anyone.  The luckiness they have had with late game implosions by teams over and over again to allow them to win might be unprecedented in NFL history.

Edited December 2 by Big Turk

[WNYFAN1]

3 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

 

This is a mirage with Baltimore. 

 

It's the same thing as when Miami beat buffalo 30-7 in 90. Or KC ran all over an injured bills defense in KC in 91. Only for both teams to get completely destroyed in the playoffs 

 

We've seen this over and over again. 

 

Lamar had 50 yards passing vs the Texans last year in the playoffs in the first half and his running bailed him out vs a very limited inexperienced QB in Stroud.

 

Then it was Lamar 2020 playoff all over again in arrowhead. The chiefs literally dared Baltimore to pass and it was a disaster for the ravens. KC easily should have won like 27-10

 

Anything can happen obviously " any given Sunday" but until Lamar is not terrible in the playoffs I can't Magically believe he's going to suddenly be Dan Fouts in year 7....

 

Hes having a great regular season and is a legit MVP candidate but I don't trust him at all in the playoffs. It's been really bad 

To be fair, Baltimore has played a FAR tougher schedule that we have. Chiefs (same), Commanders, Steelers, Broncos, Chargers, Eagles. Bills are fortunate to be playing the AFC East, NFC West and AFC South. Three really soft divisions. Being in the AFC North is brutal.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Eagles are really good. Give them credit. Many fans say the Lions are the best team in the NFC and the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I think the Eagles are right there with the Lions. For the Eagles to get a win Baltimore after falling behind 9-0 was pretty impressive.

This is more devils advocate than anything at this point haha but I could see it pivoting pretty hard away from the lions being the team to beat down the stretch.  If they drop games to GB and Buffalo the ‘who have they beaten’ talk is gonna get pretty loud 

 

I’ve seen it said about us a bit but the detroit schedule also has been pretty light on big time games. 
 

They’ve squeaked by Minnesota who I have no idea what to make of, squeaked by Houston missing collins and Diggs, decent win over Arizona but we did that too, and a  nice win over GB.  They didn’t have a big time measuring stick game this year because the eagles and chiefs weren’t on the schedule and they didn’t play us yet.  SF isn’t what they used to be so there just isn’t a lot of opportunity for a huge regular season matchup over in the NFC anymore 

Edited December 2 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[machine gun kelly]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Chiefs can literally lose to anyone.  The luckiness they have had with late game implosions by teams over and over again to allow them to win might be unprecedented in NFL history.

Turk, exactly, and adding to my dialogue with Gregg, a Jim Harbaugh led Chargers, and a Sean Payton led Broncos are not going to implode at end of games as they are long lasting head coaches who lead very disciplined teams for the last 15 years of you add college and pro with Harbaugh.  I swear theBears must be dying they didn’t go for broke acquiring one of these coaches who someday I’m guessing will be in the HOF.  Maybe not now, but another 10-15 years and each team will win a SB.  Harbaugh was in one with the 49ers, and Payton won one with NO.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Turk, exactly, and adding to my dialogue with Gregg, a Jim Harbaugh led Chargers, and a Sean Payton led Broncos are not going to implode at end of games as they are long lasting head coaches who lead very disciplined teams for the last 15 years of you add college and pro with Harbaugh.  I swear theBears must be dying they didn’t go for broke acquiring one of these coaches who someday I’m guessing will be in the HOF.  Maybe not now, but another 10-15 years and each team will win a SB.  Harbaugh was in one with the 49ers, and Payton won one with NO.

 

I mean the Broncos just did implode tho...they had a 35 yard FG blocked that would have won the game if they made it and over the last 5 years has had a 92% success rate in the NFL.

[machine gun kelly]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

I mean the Broncos just did implode tho...they had a 35 yard FG blocked that would have won the game if they made it and over the last 5 years has had a 92% success rate in the NFL.

I agree, but this was also a fluke as you state, not an implosion.  As you state this is made 92% of the time.  Besides it wasn’t a botched kick, it was blocked.

[Mat68]

Kc is playing with fire.  I think they are as likely to lose out as they are to win out.  Offense is average.  Defense is good.  Defense was great last season and the offense was good.  Losing Rice has diminished the passing attack that was already limited.  The defense has to blitz because they are no longer elite outside losing Ward.  Buffalo is in a good spot for the 1 seed even with a loss at Detroit. Today I think Buffalo beats them.   

[djp14150]

28 minutes ago, WNYFAN1 said:

To be fair, Baltimore has played a FAR tougher schedule that we have. Chiefs (same), Commanders, Steelers, Broncos, Chargers, Eagles. Bills are fortunate to be playing the AFC East, NFC West and AFC South. Three really soft divisions. Being in the AFC North is brutal.

 

want to  play this game…. Afc west playing nfc south..worse than the nfc west

nfc east also isn’t good either

 

the nfc north is the toughest division and afc south and nfc west are playing them.

 

in thr NFC North you have Detroit, min, gb at 1,2,3 losses.  Then there is  the bears — L on Thursday when they coukd have tied, blocked FG against gb, Hail Mary against was, Vikings OT L, Texans, colts werr other 2 score loses.  They are now -8 but they could easily be 7-5

 

 

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Kc is playing with fire.  I think they are as likely to lose out as they are to win out.  Offense is average.  Defense is good.  Defense was great last season and the offense was good.  Losing Rice has diminished the passing attack that was already limited.  The defense has to blitz because they are no longer elite outside losing Ward.  Buffalo is in a good spot for the 1 seed even with a loss at Detroit. Today I think Buffalo beats them.   

everyonebof their W was a one score game in the 4th. 11-0 in one score games is a major outlier. Most teams in 11 one score games would be between 4-7 wins, not 11 so they should be more like 7-5 or 8-4

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

 

want to  play this game…. Afc west playing nfc south..worse than the nfc west

nfc east also isn’t good either

 

the nfc north is the toughest division and afc south and nfc west are playing them.

 

in thr NFC North you have Detroit, min, gb at 1,2,3 losses.  Then there is  the bears — L on Thursday when they coukd have tied, blocked FG against gb, Hail Mary against was, Vikings OT L, Texans, colts werr other 2 score loses.  They are now -8 but they could easily be 7-5

 

 

everyonebof their W was a one score game in the 4th. 11-0 in one score games is a major outlier. Most teams in 11 one score games would be between 4-7 wins, not 11 so they should be more like 7-5 or 8-4

Now having the better qb shifts the odds in their favor.  But yes, the odds are against them.  Playing roulette and its red 11 times in a row.  Yes, the results do not change the odds but black is hitting soon or later.  Chiefs fans would point to last season.  They had some opposite luck.  Losing 1 score games early then going on a run late.  My thought is that run corresponded with the emergence of Rice that opened more room for Kelce.  The offense was outscoring people.  Playing from ahead and allowing the defense to attack.  That isnt really the case this season.  The defense is keeping the game close and the offense is doing just enough in the fourth quarter. Some suspect teams have put the Chiefs in a position to need some really incredible luck to win.  Eventually, that well runs dry.  Its not a case of Mahomes just being better its odd ball stuff. Blocked kicks, fumbled snaps.  

[djp14150]

13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Now having the better qb shifts the odds in their favor.  But yes, the odds are against them.  Playing roulette and its red 11 times in a row.  Yes, the results do not change the odds but black is hitting soon or later.  Chiefs fans would point to last season.  They had some opposite luck.  Losing 1 score games early then going on a run late.  My thought is that run corresponded with the emergence of Rice that opened more room for Kelce.  The offense was outscoring people.  Playing from ahead and allowing the defense to attack.  That isnt really the case this season.  The defense is keeping the game close and the offense is doing just enough in the fourth quarter. Some suspect teams have put the Chiefs in a position to need some really incredible luck to win.  Eventually, that well runs dry.  Its not a case of Mahomes just being better its odd ball stuff. Blocked kicks, fumbled snaps.  

 

thr idea of build leads and make opponent change their game plan whic is to the advantage of the defense is common 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

4 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Having Henry makes them more dangerous. I just don't like the matchup for the Bills. 

I still can’t believe Henry hasn’t broken down yet. Really amazing, especially given his high volume workload. 

[zow2]

Sounds like Lamar's mom got into his ear about not taking off and running enough.  I thought that was a pretty funny comment from his post game presser.  He seemed to genuinely take that to heart.  He's trying to hang in the pocket and be all "quarterbacky" when really, he should just run run run when the play isn't there.  He took some bad sacks. 

[Success]

Man, couldn't the Raiders have just kicked the FG instead of running one more play?

 

[Mikie2times]

Lions are not beating Philly. The wrong team is favored in the NFC. I called this out in the Thanksgiving game thread but the Lions have a Bills like quality as far as losing in impossible fashion. Call it the great lakes curse, they won't ultimately get it done this year.

 

I like the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC. I would include the Ravens, but I just don't see them making it past KC and the Steelers. Pittsburgh has Lamar's number and KC is just too clutch vs Baltimore's anti clutch. 

 

Put up or shut up time for us. McD and our performance are a great story but I will forever hold out full porn mode until we show it in the postseason. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

 

want to  play this game…. Afc west playing nfc south..worse than the nfc west

nfc east also isn’t good either

 

the nfc north is the toughest division and afc south and nfc west are playing them.

 

in thr NFC North you have Detroit, min, gb at 1,2,3 losses.  Then there is  the bears — L on Thursday when they coukd have tied, blocked FG against gb, Hail Mary against was, Vikings OT L, Texans, colts werr other 2 score loses.  They are now -8 but they could easily be 7-5

 

 

everyonebof their W was a one score game in the 4th. 11-0 in one score games is a major outlier. Most teams in 11 one score games would be between 4-7 wins, not 11 so they should be more like 7-5 or 8-4

The chiefs are a statistical freak show, their record in one score games is a crazy outlier, their turnover differential is pretty bad, their qb stats are pretty good not great,their net points is pretty bad given their record, they are 12th in DVOA which would tie the 07 giants as the lowest ranked DVOA team to win the superbowl in at least the last 13 years if they were to pull it off (11 out of the last 13 winners were ranked 8th or better, one was ranked 10th and I haven’t found the numbers from further back than that) 

 

that supposedly horrendous chiefs team in the regular season last year that apparently turned it on for just the playoffs was ranked 5th in DVOA 

 

Edited December 2 by Generic_Bills_Fan