Week 13 - 49ers at Bills Game Week Thread

[drummernut74]

56 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

If the Dolphins lose tonight the Bills clinch the division with a win lol. That is inconceivable. We weren’t in the playoffs until like the 11th hour of last season. Now we can clinch the week of thanksgiving 

Just like in our Super Bowl years. Always had the Division wrapped up way early 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

6 minutes ago, drummernut74 said:

Just like in our Super Bowl years. Always had the Division wrapped up way early 

That’s a huge advantage. But hey, let’s get it to the garage first. Still….

[paulmm3]

I wonder how much we'll strategically rest players to keep them healthy down the last stretch of the season - or really go all out like we're fighting for a playoff spot trying to get the first seed and the bye.

[That's No Moon]

23 minutes ago, drummernut74 said:

Just like in our Super Bowl years. Always had the Division wrapped up way early 

Yeah, this isn't true.

 

1990- won division in week 16 of 17

1991- clinched early

1992- didn't win the division 

1993- week 17 of 18

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, paulmm3 said:

I wonder how much we'll strategically rest players to keep them healthy down the last stretch of the season - or really go all out like we're fighting for a playoff spot trying to get the first seed and the bye.

If you don't use it you lose it.  They'll be extra cautious with injuries but that two seed means if you're going to get to the Super Bowl you'll face a maximum of one road game.

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:

Yeah, this isn't true.

 

1990- won division in week 16 of 17

1991- clinched early

1992- didn't win the division 

1993- week 17 of 18

One year we clinched late on a Nick Lowery chip shot in a blizzard that he missed and the Bills won like 16-14 

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, drummernut74 said:

Just like in our Super Bowl years. Always had the Division wrapped up way early 

 

1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:

Yeah, this isn't true.

 

1990- won division in week 16 of 17

1991- clinched early

1992- didn't win the division 

1993- week 17 of 18

 

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

One year we clinched late on a Nick Lowery chip shot in a blizzard that he missed and the Bills won like 16-14 

 

Be careful @gonzo1105... just... be careful.

 

[gordong]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Any chance these things will fly in the wind and snow?

 

 

they can fly is some wind but not heavy snow, they are not waterproof I imagine they would not want to chance hurting people in the stands should some fail.

[gonzo1105]

12 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

One year we clinched late on a Nick Lowery chip shot in a blizzard that he missed and the Bills won like 16-14 

I stand corrected it was Cary Blanchard who missed in 93 

[That's No Moon]

14 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

One year we clinched late on a Nick Lowery chip shot in a blizzard that he missed and the Bills won like 16-14 

You're close.  1993, week 17 v. the Jets. Cary Blanchard missed 3 FGs that day including one in the last minute, Bills won 16-14.  Wasn't snowing that day though, but it was cold.

Edited Friday at 05:26 AM by That's No Moon

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

You're close.  1993, week 17 v. the Jets. Cary Blanchard missed 3 FGs that day including one in the last minute, Bills won 16-14.  Wasn't snowing that day though, but it was cold.

I was going off my 8 year old brain trying to remember that one. Thanks 

[That's No Moon]

 

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

I was going off my 8 year old brain trying to remember that one. Thanks 

No worries.  Glad my 15 year old brain could pick you up.

[YattaOkasan]

12 hours ago, Brand J said:

People were asking how much Milano eats into Dorian’s PT, but I think a more interesting question is, once Milano gets his football endurance back and reps and proves to be a playmaker again, which LB stays on the field in dime packages? Him or Bernard?

Trick question. Leave both and take a DL off. You’re only going dime if you know they’re passing. Give me groot Oliver and von in full attack mode. Then any LB as spy.  Feel great we could get the QB off their spot and have plenty of coverage players 

[The Helmet of]

16 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Trick question. Leave both and take a DL off. You’re only going dime if you know they’re passing. Give me groot Oliver and von in full attack mode. Then any LB as spy.  Feel great we could get the QB off their spot and have plenty of coverage players 

It’s hard to see Bernard coming off the field. He’s been awesome and is a team captain. I gotta think Milano will be used situationally… maybe to sub Taron from time to time when O is going run heavy.  

Also maybe spell Dorian from time to time. Keep him fresh. He’s played a ton of snaps and may be relied on to tackle Pacheco or Derek Henry in the playoffs. 
 

Rotate and keep them all fresh.

Keep Milano on a pitch count until playoffs and then let him run wild.

[BillsFan619]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

One year we clinched late on a Nick Lowery chip shot in a blizzard that he missed and the Bills won like 16-14 

 

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

I stand corrected it was Cary Blanchard who missed in 93 

Great memory. I was at that game. One of the coldest.

 

Go Bills!

[716to540]

3 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

 

No worries.  Glad my 15 year old brain could pick you up.

I don't remember thing one about that game. My 28 year old self must have been really .... really stoned.

[The Helmet of]

11 minutes ago, 716to540 said:

I don't remember thing one about that game. My 28 year old self must have been really .... really stoned.

Both announcers were trolling Blanchard hard for his missed kicks. Especially Paul Maguire. Old school.

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

Yeah, this isn't true.

 

1990- won division in week 16 of 17

1991- clinched early

1992- didn't win the division 

1993- week 17 of 18

88 they won it early too I believe 

[GunnerBill]

49ers injury report yesterday:

Williams, Bose and Lenoir all still DNPs. You would think that means trending towards not playing. 

Purdy still reporting as "limited" but who knows what that means. I still think he is unlikely to go. 

 

The one who I do expect to play is Charvarius Ward who has been missing for personal reasons and is now back practicing. 

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Not sure 3-2-6 is “innovation”.  It is good to have to choose between great players.  Also, until Milano shows he is back it’s not really a discussion.  Bernard stays on.  

 

It is not 'innovation' but I think since the middle of last year when they sort of stumbled across the dime package because of injuries at linebacker the Bills have been a bit more willing to throw different looks out there on 3rd down. I think their passing down defensive packages are a bit more varied. Under Frazier they liked to stay very much in their nickel package. The question is whether that has been successful? 

 

See the numbers below which tell you that currently our 3rd down defense numbers are the worst of the McDermott era - and in a year where generally 3rd down conversions are at the lower end of the normal range league wide. However, the injuries have played a definite part in that. Through 5 weeks while we were missing Taron and Bernard for chunks of time we were running at 44% of 3rd downs surrendered, since then, when those guys have returned to the lineup it is down to 37.5% which is much more in keeping with our previous performance. 

 

Of course we'd all settle for being slightly worse on 3rd down in the regular season if that variation and unpredictability resulted in better playoff performance. So that will bear watching. 

 

Frazier's 3rd down conversion against rankings in his time here:

2022 - 37.5% (7th in the NFL)

2021 - 30.8% (1st in the NFL)

2020 - 39.8% (13th in the NFL)

2019 - 35.8% (7th in the NFL)

2018 - 36.5% (8th in the NFL)

2017 - 38.3% (17th in the NFL)

 

McDermott's 3rd down conversion against ranking:

2023 - 38.6% (19th in the NFL)

 

Babich's 3rd down conversion against ranking:

2024 - 40.8% (21st in the NFL)