Week 13 - 49ers at Bills Game Week Thread

[Matt_In_NH]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not 'innovation' but I think since the middle of last year when they sort of stumbled across the dime package because of injuries at linebacker the Bills have been a bit more willing to throw different looks out there on 3rd down. I think their passing down defensive packages are a bit more varied. Under Frazier they liked to stay very much in their nickel package. The question is whether that has been successful? 

 

See the numbers below which tell you that currently our 3rd down defense numbers are the worst of the McDermott era - and in a year where generally 3rd down conversions are at the lower end of the normal range league wide. However, the injuries have played a definite part in that. Through 5 weeks while we were missing Taron and Bernard for chunks of time we were running at 44% of 3rd downs surrendered, since then, when those guys have returned to the lineup it is down to 37.5% which is much more in keeping with our previous performance. 

 

Of course we'd all settle for being slightly worse on 3rd down in the regular season if that variation and unpredictability resulted in better playoff performance. So that will bear watching. 

 

Frazier's 3rd down conversion against rankings in his time here:

2022 - 37.5% (7th in the NFL)

2021 - 30.8% (1st in the NFL)

2020 - 39.8% (13th in the NFL)

2019 - 35.8% (7th in the NFL)

2018 - 36.5% (8th in the NFL)

2017 - 38.3% (17th in the NFL)

 

McDermott's 3rd down conversion against ranking:

2023 - 38.6% (19th in the NFL)

 

Babich's 3rd down conversion against ranking:

2024 - 40.8% (21st in the NFL)

Yeah 3rd down defense has been bad this year.  Somehow they did decent va the chiefs who have the best 3rd down offense.  Hoping with all the changes and injuries this trends better down the stretch.  Turnovers have been great which helps a lot.  

[eball]

Looking like no Kincaid again this week…hasn’t practiced at all.

 

[Big Turk]

9 hours ago, drummernut74 said:

Just like in our Super Bowl years. Always had the Division wrapped up way early 

 

Not always...think you are writing revisionist history now.

 

In their first SB appearance they finished 13-3 and the Fins finished 12-4.

 

The following year they were 13-3 again and the Jets finished 2nd at 8-8...in this case it was true.

 

In 1992, the Bills actually were the wildcard, losing the division to Miami even tho they had identical 11-5 records.

 

In 1993, the Bills finished 12-4 with the Fins in 2nd at 9-7. So partially the case here.

 

 

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

49ers injury report yesterday:

Williams, Bose and Lenoir all still DNPs. You would think that means trending towards not playing. 

Purdy still reporting as "limited" but who knows what that means. I still think he is unlikely to go. 

 

The one who I do expect to play is Charvarius Ward who has been missing for personal reasons and is now back practicing. 

I think that I agree with this list. There’s a guy on Twitter that seems to be kind of plugged in on the Purdy situation. He’s insisted for the last couple of weeks that he will be out the year (don’t remember what). He’s been saying, even before last week, that it would be announced after the Bills game. 
 

Either way, I can’t imagine that they run him out there, in that weather, with that shoulder. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze based on their current standing.

[Magox]

51 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that I agree with this list. There’s a guy on Twitter that seems to be kind of plugged in on the Purdy situation. He’s insisted for the last couple of weeks that he will be out the year (don’t remember what). He’s been saying, even before last week, that it would be announced after the Bills game. 
 

Either way, I can’t imagine that they run him out there, in that weather, with that shoulder. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze based on their current standing.

Honestly, It may not even be a 49ers call this could be Purdy making a business decision.

 

Purdy is one of those guys that could be on the cusp of a huge or a middling contract.   Sorta like Mayfield a few years back, Mayfield was headed towards a top level contract and then he had subpar year (largely due to his injury that he played through) and since he was viewed (wrongly) by many as a borderline franchise QB he never got the contract he deserved.

 

Purdy is in a similar boat, I think there is enough skepticism about him that if he were to suffer a significant shoulder injury he probably wouldn’t get a $55 M + a year contract.

 

I wouldn’t blame him for waiting till that shoulder is fully healed before he heads out on the field.  Too much money is at stake.

[BearNorth]

Wondering with the 49ers wide receiver injuries, their most common lineup is 2 WR's [Samuel & Jennings] TE [Kittle] HB [McCaffrey] FB [Juszczyk].  Esp with how dinged up their OL is, imagine we'll see a lot of Juszczyk [Good Buffalo name if I ever heard one].

 

 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

That was really well done

[ChasBB]

First-ever drone light show at halftime of an NFL game this Sunday night in Buffalo!  ...
https://www.buffalobills.com/video/sunday-night-lights-halftime-drone-show-teaser

[Straight Hucklebuck]

WGR 550 = Chiefs radio. 

 

Sal spending 98% of his time explaining procedural deadlines. 

[sunshynman]

23 minutes ago, ChasBB said:

First-ever drone light show at halftime of an NFL game this Sunday night in Buffalo!  ...
https://www.buffalobills.com/video/sunday-night-lights-halftime-drone-show-teaser

I'm guessing the weather cancels that. It's probably borderline if the game goes on depending on how much snow gets dumped in OP before Sunday evening. 

[Mat68]

52 minutes ago, Magox said:

Honestly, It may not even be a 49ers call this could be Purdy making a business decision.

 

Purdy is one of those guys that could be on the cusp of a huge or a middling contract.   Sorta like Mayfield a few years back, Mayfield was headed towards a top level contract and then he had subpar year (largely due to his injury that he played through) and since he was viewed (wrongly) by many as a borderline franchise QB he never got the contract he deserved.

 

Purdy is in a similar boat, I think there is enough skepticism about him that if he were to suffer a significant shoulder injury he probably wouldn’t get a $55 M + a year contract.

 

I wouldn’t blame him for waiting till that shoulder is fully healed before he heads out on the field.  Too much money is at stake.

No structural damage shoulder problem for a Qb with an average arm is worrisome.  If it’s contract related that would be wild.  Im San Fran I don't extend Purdy and I draft a qb.  Let them sit a year.  If Purdy wants to hold out or anything like that I trade him.  Mayfield looked pained.  I do not understand the handling of Baker in Cleveland.  Could have paid Baker half what they paid Watson and kept the capital.    

[Sierra Foothills]

12 hours ago, drummernut74 said:

Just like in our Super Bowl years. Always had the Division wrapped up way early 

 

11 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

Yeah, this isn't true.

 

1990- won division in week 16 of 17

1991- clinched early

1992- didn't win the division 

1993- week 17 of 18

 

10 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

One year we clinched late on a Nick Lowery chip shot in a blizzard that he missed and the Bills won like 16-14 

 

9 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

You're close.  1993, week 17 v. the Jets. Cary Blanchard missed 3 FGs that day including one in the last minute, Bills won 16-14.  Wasn't snowing that day though, but it was cold.

 

@That's No Moon, if you're going to insist that all of our Bills memories are factually accurate, I'll quit this board.

 

AND DON'T THINK I WON'T

 

 

[ChasBB]

9 minutes ago, sunshynman said:

I'm guessing the weather cancels that. It's probably borderline if the game goes on depending on how much snow gets dumped in OP before Sunday evening. 

I sure hope the game is played.  Not much of a home field advantage if all our snow games get cancelled, postponed or moved.

 

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Looking like no Kincaid again this week…hasn’t practiced at all.

 

Eman,  you’re correct, but I’d argue given Kinkaid’s play has not been expected and Knox has came up in critical situations, I don’t see it as a big temporary loss.  He could be back for the Rams, but I’m sure he’ll be ready for the Lions.

 

On the other hand, Cooper, Milano, Brown are full participants as everyone else on the list, but Coleman.  Coleman could be a full participant today, and more importantly is not wearing any cast or taped even.  He’ll be ready for the Lions.

 

The net positive is significant, and Knox will get those red zone targets that Josh loves throwing to him.

[Sierra Foothills]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

No structural damage shoulder problem for a Qb with an average arm is worrisome.  If it’s contract related that would be wild.  Im San Fran I don't extend Purdy and I draft a qb.  Let them sit a year.  If Purdy wants to hold out or anything like that I trade him.  Mayfield looked pained.  I do not understand the handling of Baker in Cleveland.  Could have paid Baker half what they paid Watson and kept the capital.    

 

Obviously shoulders are a very delicate deal for QBs.

 

Another QB whose shoulder was mismanaged was Chad Pennington.

 

(looks around for @That's No Moon)

 

[RiotAct]

3 minutes ago, ChasBB said:

I sure hope the game is played.  Not much of a home field advantage if all our snow games get cancelled, postponed or moved.

 

this game is NOT getting moved. The area  can handle a couple feet of snow over a 2-day period.

[GottaRun]

^^^

Yes.  They are not cancelling a game because of 8" of snow... 

[Sierra Foothills]

12 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

this game is NOT getting moved. The area  can handle a couple feet of snow over a 2-day period.

 

9 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

^^^

Yes.  They are not cancelling a game because of 8" of snow... 

 

We'll add these comments to the agenda so they're discussed at God's Weather Meeting tomorrow.

 

 

[sunshynman]

12 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

^^^

Yes.  They are not cancelling a game because of 8" of snow... 

Accuweather is saying 1-2 ft. at the stadium. The good thing is Buffalo proper, and the North of OP looks good. The plows should be able to keep up. But you never know when they decide to error on the side of caution. And if it shifts north any.