Week 13 - 49ers at Bills Game Week Thread

[njbuff]

So, is the snow going to be a major problem or is everything going to be south of OP?

[AKC]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

We had the Coleco with the magnetic ball.

I'm going to presume we had a pretty early version- the ball IIRC was felt. It didn't hold our attention for long. NFL Strategy popped up in the 70s and that one kept us engaged a lot longer, although the random flick thing was laughably bad.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, scuba guy said:

So in Rochester we call this the Wegmans report just go and spend lots on money on food.  And the storm never comes

 

Yeah, trust me when they put out a watch 3 days early it's coming and it's not going to be good.

[TheWeatherMan]

14 hours ago, Big Turk said:

And there it is...

 

Winter Storm Watch in effect already for multi-day duration Heavy Lake Snow Event from Friday to Monday.

 

Issuing it early Tuesday afternoon means they are going to get hammered most likely.  

 

Would expect Northern Erie to follow suit later tonight/tomorrow once they get a better idea of the model with wind direction/storm placement.

 

(Revised) Narrow bands of heavy snow i.e. lake effect (or enhanced) is nearly impossible to forecast due its reliance on micro scale effects and the super sensitivity to the slightest changes in environmental conditions.  Forecasting a lake effect snow event is super easy you just need cold air advection over relatively warm water with a long wind fetch (distance over water). Now determining the exact impact area is nearly impossible more than 24 hours out.  A 1 degree shift in the wind direction or a 1 degree change in temperature can be the difference in getting 3 inches vs 3 feet.  The watch is simply saying there will be a lake effect event. Because of the impact that the Great Lakes have on weather systems (usually slowing them down) models tend to struggle with the timing and intensity of lake effect events especially out to 72-96hrs.  Once we’re inside of 12-24 hours forecast fidelity increases significantly.  Lake effect and fog are probably the hardest single point phenomena to forecast @Big Turk

Edited November 27 by TheWeatherMan

[zow2]

Fun to watch on TV but weather forecasts like this weekend are awful for out of towners coming in for the game. The stress and anxiety just ramps up, on how weather will affect travel.

[Breakout Squad]

7 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Narrow bands of heavy snow i.e. lake effect (or enhanced) is nearly impossible to forecast to the the micro scale effects and super sensitivity to the slightest change in environmental conditions.  Forecasting a lake effect snow event is super easy, determining the impact area is nearly impossible more than 24 hours out.  A 1 degree shift in the wind direction can be the difference in getting 3 inches vs 3 feet.  The watch is simply saying there will be a lake effect event. 

The kid inside me is hoping you’re Patrick Hammer or Todd Santos 😂

1 hour ago, Comebackkid said:

 Leanard Floyd leaves buffalo to chase superbowl asperations with SF.

 

Maybe not the best choice

No Floyd was very specific and made it clear. He was going to whoever paid him the most. 

[Sierra Foothills]

10 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Narrow bands of heavy snow i.e. lake effect (or enhanced) is nearly impossible to forecast to the the micro scale effects and super sensitivity to the slightest change in environmental conditions.  Forecasting a lake effect snow event is super easy, determining the impact area is nearly impossible more than 24 hours out.  A 1 degree shift in the wind direction can be the difference in getting 3 inches vs 3 feet.  The watch is simply saying there will be a lake effect event. 

 

Aren't you supposed to toss it to the sports anchor now?

 

[Billsfed1]

I, for one, cannot wait for this game.  A historically good Bills team coming off a bye, in a prime time game at home, against a team that just lost by 30 points last week.  This should be a 44-7 type game

[The Helmet of]

1 hour ago, PoundingDog said:

Floyd said openly that he follows money.  Nothing wrong with that! 
Player agencies remind these guys constantly their youth is very limited. If someone offers 1 more guaranteed dollar, it’s a good bet he’s advised to take that offer. 

It’s cool to follow the money. It’s also cool you to cement your legacy as a champion. It’s not always possible to do both.

[streetkings01]

4 minutes ago, Billsfed1 said:

I, for one, cannot wait for this game.  A historically good Bills team coming off a bye, in a prime time game at home, against a team that just lost by 30 points last week.  This should be a 44-7 type game

You do know the NFL doesn’t work like that right?

[zow2]

5 minutes ago, Billsfed1 said:

I, for one, cannot wait for this game.  A historically good Bills team coming off a bye, in a prime time game at home, against a team that just lost by 30 points last week.  This should be a 44-7 type game

 

SF is a proud team with some good players and coaches.  They admitted they were embarrassed by the Packers. I think the Bills will win but this is the type of game that will end up being closer than most of us think it should be. It’s the NFL.

[Einstein]

26 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Narrow bands of heavy snow i.e. lake effect (or enhanced) is nearly impossible to forecast to the the micro scale effects and super sensitivity to the slightest change in environmental conditions.  Forecasting a lake effect snow event is super easy, determining the impact area is nearly impossible more than 24 hours out.  A 1 degree shift in the wind direction can be the difference in getting 3 inches vs 3 feet.  The watch is simply saying there will be a lake effect event. 

 

Enough of the mumbo jumbo, what’s it gonna be? And we want minute by minute.

[Big Turk]

33 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Narrow bands of heavy snow i.e. lake effect (or enhanced) is nearly impossible to forecast to the the micro scale effects and super sensitivity to the slightest change in environmental conditions.  Forecasting a lake effect snow event is super easy, determining the impact area is nearly impossible more than 24 hours out.  A 1 degree shift in the wind direction can be the difference in getting 3 inches vs 3 feet.  The watch is simply saying there will be a lake effect event. 

 

Yes, but the prevailing winds off the lake are typically in that area as the current storm placement passing by us favors veering winds with a W/NW flow after the frontal passage.  Agree the "exact" location won't be known but since the winds typically shift and meander somewhat frequently especially over 3+ day events, there is a good chance most places in that area get hit pretty good.  I mean 3 feet versus 6 feet maybe, but it still is going to be a lot of snow regardless.  I would also expect Northern Erie County to get added to the party with a Watch/Warning as we get closer.

 

Even during some of the heaviest 7+ foot events on record here there is significant time without snow in many areas as the winds shift slightly for a while before coming back...but when they come back they are dumping such a heavy volume of now that it doesn't need to stay over any one area long for multiple feet to fall.

Edited November 27 by Big Turk

[CaseyatBat]

Could they move the game to Detroit?
 

They are calling for snow and I know we always move it when it snows 

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, CaseyatBat said:

Could they move the game to Detroit?
 

They are calling for snow and I know we always move it when it snows 

There have been 2-3 games moved in 30 years 

 

It's not like it happens yearly

[CaseyatBat]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

There have been 2-3 games moved in 30 years 

 

It's not like it happens yearly

they already moved a game this calendar year for snow. A playoff game no less!

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, CaseyatBat said:

they already moved a game this calendar year for snow. A playoff game no less!

It went from Sunday to Monday in orchard Park 

 

Not like they played it in Pittsburgh

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, CaseyatBat said:

they already moved a game this calendar year for snow. A playoff game no less!

 

One of the effects of the much longer lasting warmer temps we have seen in this area over the last decade or so that has basically given us an extra month-month and a half of summer for all intents and purposes...Lake Temps that are near record highs this late in the season mean there is much more moisture to pull from them...one of the biggest factors is the difference between air and water temperatures as the wind blows over them.  The greater the difference, the more moisture gets sucked up.

 

Warm Lake Temps in mid November and early December  = Bad News Bears.

Edited November 27 by Big Turk

[CaseyatBat]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

It went from Sunday to Monday in orchard Park 

 

Not like they played it in Pittsburgh

I’m from the old skool and think they should be played as scheduled.

 

But either way my question is valid, they are starting to move games every year now and it supposed to snow

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, CaseyatBat said:

I’m from the old skool and think they should be played as scheduled.

 

But either way my question is valid, they are starting to move games every year now and it supposed to snow

 

Old Skool never had 7+ foot lake snow events.  This is a relatively new phenomenon that started in 2014. It is literally not possible to clear that much snow that quickly. Especially while needing to clear sidestreets and neighborhoods so emergency vehicles can get down them for any emergencies that may arise.

Edited November 27 by Big Turk