Week 13 - 49ers at Bills Game Week Thread

[Process]

11 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

If the spread is -6 towards the Bills, the expectation by Vegas is that Brock Purdy wont be playing. I dont think it would be that high if they thought he was playing.

The advanced line last week was -3.5. Then once Purdy was announced out vs GB they took the bills game off the board. Now it's opened at -6. So yea it sure seems like they are expecting him to be out. 

[MikePJ76]

Kyle Shanahan in games started by Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo on #49ers: 60-26, .698

Kyle Shanahan in games started by other QBs: 9-31, .225
 

#49ers Deebo Samuel has been held to fewer than 25 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games for 1st time since his rookie season in 2019 (Weeks 4-5 vs Browns and Rams)
 

this is from Josh Dubow on Bluesky.  The links don’t work when I post them.

 

 

49ers injuries from Sunday:

DT Jordan Elliot (concussion)
G Aaron Banks (concussion)
CB Renardo Green (neck)
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (knee)

 

 

Edited November 25 by MikePJ76

[Mat68]

Injury to Purdy or not I like the Bills.  Miamis offense without the speed imo.  Without the speed threat it allows the safeties to play a bit closer to the LOS and helps shrink the passing windows and fill the lanes in the wide zone.  10 point win with Purdy 21 point win if he is out. 

[Big Turk]

52 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Injury to Purdy or not I like the Bills.  Miamis offense without the speed imo.  Without the speed threat it allows the safeties to play a bit closer to the LOS and helps shrink the passing windows and fill the lanes in the wide zone.  10 point win with Purdy 21 point win if he is out. 

 

"The Hawk" has defeated QB's with far stronger arms than Brock Purdy before.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

The cure for that is to get a two score lead and hold it into the second half.  Make them pass the ball and play the way they don’t want to.

 

Screen passes, passes to the backs and kittle are what scare me the most in this game.  Everyone runs on Buffalo but it has only been the winning formula for one team, Baltimore.  
 

this is going to be like playing the dolphins again only this team is more talented up front and Miami is more talented at the skill positions.   SF linebackers (if healthy) are a real issue.  

Joe Mixon also had a great game against us for the Texans...they just didn't use him well in the 2nd half and we almost pulled off a win.   The same goes for Jonathan Taylor...He had something like 5 yards in the 2nd half.

[MikePJ76]

3 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Joe Mixon also had a great game against us for the Texans...they just didn't use him well in the 2nd half and we almost pulled off a win.   The same goes for Jonathan Taylor...He had something like 5 yards in the 2nd half.

Mixon was out that day.  

 

But yea the point stands, Buffalo has played a number of good backs this year and only one did enough to beat them and that was baltimore.  

 

The dolphins, jets, seattle, arizona and the colts all have good running backs.  They all had some varients of success against the bills defense (by design) and in the end had to throw the ball to win and could not do it.  

 

 

Edited November 25 by MikePJ76

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Ehh, I really don’t want them to feel they need to run the ball more against this team.  If there’s one major concern this year it’s run D, also just so happens to be the strength of almost all of the real contenders O.  A bit scary.

 

The best run defense is a dominating offense. Our two worst run defense games happened because we couldn't keep pace with Baltimore or pull away from Miami. Against Seattle and Indy we made the run defense a non-factor. The goal is to sell out to stop CMC early, get up by two scores as quickly as possible, and dare Purdy to beat you with his arm. The 49ers defense stinks this year and we will seemingly have our entire complement of weapons fully healthy so that strategy should be viable.

[wjag]

I remember the last time Buffalo played Niners in Arizona.  That was one of Josh's finest games as a pro.  I bet growing up in Cali he was probably a Niners fan, so maybe this gives him some extra motivation.

 

Watching the Niners yesterday, they certainly looked disinterested with so much on the line.

[Process]

Bills are -6.5 -120 now. -3.5 -110 last week.

 

Lines don't swing like that because of one bad loss to GB. Vegas knows. Purdy isn't playing. 

[JP51]

Things I like... 

 

We are hopefully getting healthier

9ers Midwestern trip... back home east coast trip

gonna be cold

Purdy banged up, winds, without an elite arm

Bosa hurt we will see if he plays

Home game

 

Things I dont like

 

Coming off bye weeks always freak me out although MCD has a good record

If it turns into a pound the rock game are we prepared

Trap game in a sense 

CMC, Kittle, Samuel combo.

 

i will say this, being a Bills fan for over 50 years I always get nervous before games.... I was the guy with the Bills up 51-3  that said... "If we stop em here we may have an outside shot at this one....: so consider that LOL 

Edited November 25 by JP51

[Jamie Nails]

14 minutes ago, Process said:

Bills are -6.5 -120 now. -3.5 -110 last week.

 

Lines don't swing like that because of one bad loss to GB. Vegas knows. Purdy isn't playing. 

its -7 on bet MGM now. Tend to agree with you that Vegas is thinking/knowing he’s out. 

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, Process said:

Bills are -6.5 -120 now. -3.5 -110 last week.

 

Lines don't swing like that because of one bad loss to GB. Vegas knows. Purdy isn't playing. 

 

I don't know, if Purdy was guaranteed to not play we might be favored by 9.5.

[Process]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know, if Purdy was guaranteed to not play we might be favored by 9.5.

Yea I shouldn't say for sure he's not playing, but it's looking like it's trending that way. 

[Bigvinny]

Pretty sure the Bills can clinch the division Sunday with a win And a Dolphins loss to the packers Thursday night. 

 

 

Edited November 25 by Bigvinny

[msw2112]

12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

2 players with concussions left the game.

 

2 players with concussions left the game.

 

2 players with concussions left the game.

 

It was a must win for the Jets when they played us and the Fins when they played us too...apparently the Bills don't seem to care.

 

True, but the Fins game was very close, coming down to the final play.  The Bills would be wise to take no opponent lightly.  The Bills can beat any team in the NFL when they're on their game, but could also lose to many teams if they play poorly.  The Niners are not having a good year, but they have enough talent to be taken seriously and if they play well, they could be tough to handle.  With pretty much the same roster, they were in the Super Bowl last year and played well enough to go to OT, so a bounce here or there away from being the NFL champions.

 

Do I agree that the Bills are the better team?  I do, but they still need to play well to win.

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

True, but the Fins game was very close, coming down to the final play.  The Bills would be wise to take no opponent lightly.  The Bills can beat any team in the NFL when they're on their game, but could also lose to many teams if they play poorly.  The Niners are not having a good year, but they have enough talent to be taken seriously and if they play well, they could be tough to handle.  With pretty much the same roster, they were in the Super Bowl last year and played well enough to go to OT, so a bounce here or there away from being the NFL champions.

 

Do I agree that the Bills are the better team?  I do, but they still need to play well to win.

I think familiarity helped the Dolphins.  Even with that they were weird holding calls and a flukey touchdown turning to an int away from getting blown out again.  Coleman catches the slant clean and Allens TD run stands they are up big at half.  Miami abandons the run and Tua is a sitting duck in the second half.  

Edited November 25 by Mat68

[TheFunPolice]

On the topic of leaves, I ask permission from all of my neighbors to come and collect all of their leaves (as long as they don't have dogs) to use in my gardens. I suck them up with the rider and bagger. So far everyone has been happy to share, enthusiastic even!

 

100% the BEST thing you can do for your soil. But be careful not to include dog manure. Cat or dog manure is no good for gardens. One guy was like "what the heck, why can't you come get mine too, you get everyone else's!" so I had to explain, and he understood. 

 

On the topic of the game, we are going to roll the 9ers. They are injured, old, and have no QB. CMC is falling apart for good this time (anything Achilles is no good) and the Bills are in the middle of a movie right now that has a happy ending. I'm talking small town, gazebo, christmas lights, the whole 9 yards. 

 

Have the tissues ready for mid February this year because there's going to be a lot of happy tears!

Edited November 25 by TheFunPolice

[Scott7975]

Quote

The Buffalo Bills' drive for five straight division titles is likely to reach the finish line unexpectedly early this year.

Buffalo leads the second-place Miami Dolphins by 4.0 full games, and the Bills also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over their rivals due to the home-and-home season sweep.

If two results go a certain way this week, Buffalo will extend its advantage to 5.0 games with five to play and mathematically clinch the AFC East division title in Week 13.

The Dolphins visit the Green Bay Packers for a Thanksgiving night primetime affair on November 28. Should the Packers win on Thursday, then the Bills will play for the division title against the floundering San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.

To put it simply, one more Dolphins' loss coupled with a Bills' win clinches the AFC East for Buffalo for the fifth straight season.

 

[Big Turk]

19 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

True, but the Fins game was very close, coming down to the final play.  The Bills would be wise to take no opponent lightly.  The Bills can beat any team in the NFL when they're on their game, but could also lose to many teams if they play poorly.  The Niners are not having a good year, but they have enough talent to be taken seriously and if they play well, they could be tough to handle.  With pretty much the same roster, they were in the Super Bowl last year and played well enough to go to OT, so a bounce here or there away from being the NFL champions.

 

Do I agree that the Bills are the better team?  I do, but they still need to play well to win.

 

Yes, obviously.  I don't think the Bills take anyone lightly, especially not this year.

[Scott7975]

Popped up in my feed so thought I'd share with everyone else that is missing Bills football like me. Not gonna lie, I had a few tears when they showed that Bass 61 yard kick again. That must have been a great moment for him.