Bye Week - The 2025 Cap & Roster

[Lost]

I'm really iffy on resigning players over 30 for 4 year contracts after the Von Miller fiasco.   

[WotAGuy]

Unless Cooper really blows up, I don’t see him staying beyond this year in Buffalo - I assume he can get more money and a longer contract than the Bills can and should give him. Time to keep adding youth to the WR corps because it’s such a high priced position. 
 

Benford will be expensive but they should sign him and let Douglass go, as it will be tough to keep both. 
 

As long as they keep drafting well, they will need to keep cap space available in future years to sign the keepers. That means limiting the big dollar, long term contracts to older vets. 

[appoo]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I would happily sign Cooper to a 2 year deal but nothing beyond that.  I'm sure he'll want at least 3 years. Emphasis has to go to Groot, Shakir, Benford & Bernard.  And yes I'm still drafting a speed wr in April. Douglas is as good as gone.  God knows what they're going to do with Elam?

Didn't he start the one week where Ras wasn't available? I think McDermott still likes him

2 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Unless Cooper really blows up, I don’t see him staying beyond this year in Buffalo - I assume he can get more money and a longer contract than the Bills can and should give him. Time to keep adding youth to the WR corps because it’s such a high priced position. 
 

Benford will be expensive but they should sign him and let Douglass go, as it will be tough to keep both. 
 

As long as they keep drafting well, they will need to keep cap space available in future years to sign the keepers. That means limiting the big dollar, long term contracts to older vets. 

I don't think the Bills win without Cooper's big plays against the Chiefs. 

 

He's such an incredibly skilled WR, that it's going to be next to impossible to replace him without spending a lot of capital. Keon looks like a future star of the physical WR type, and I think Shakir has a long future ahead of him as a slot guy. But when you're thinking of the guy opposire Keon who's an elite route runner with high end body control and technique? I mean I think that's going to be really invaluable as Keon becomes more and more unguardable in 1 on 1 matchups. 

 

I get the philosophy of not giving big contracts to older players, but I think Von was worth it, and I think Cooper is as well. It's nice to have that as a general philosophy but there should be exceptions

[WotAGuy]

8 minutes ago, appoo said:

I get the philosophy of not giving big contracts to older players, but I think Von was worth it, and I think Cooper is as well. It's nice to have that as a general philosophy but there should be exceptions

Really?  You are one of the few I’ve seen that feels Von was worth it.  As for Cooper, he has to want to be here as well, and I suspect he will prefer a warm weather team for his next and maybe last big contract. 

[appoo]

6 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Really?  You are one of the few I’ve seen that feels Von was worth it.  As for Cooper, he has to want to be here as well, and I suspect he will prefer a warm weather team for his next and maybe last big contract. 

 

You can assume older players will get injured, but I think assuming someone like Von was gonna get a torn up knee that held him back 2 years is another thing.  

 

When he tore his ACL he was playing at an all-pro level, and he may very well have been the difference in that Chiefs game.

 

I loved the signing when it happened, I thought it was well on its way to working out well for the Bills, and I think it's unfair to use the ACL tear to retcon that choice into a bad one

Edited yesterday at 01:14 AM by appoo

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 hours ago, appoo said:

To start, the Bills will carry just $5.4M in Dead cap ($68M this season) with 5 players with Tre White having 4.1M of that.  

 

Total Cap Liability - 266M

Top 51 - 260M

Total Projected Cap space - 8M

Total Roster - 45

 

Probable Cuts

• Von Miller,  8.4M Net cap savings, 15.4M Dead cap
• Jalen Virgil - 1M
• Austin Johnson - 0 (Void year)

 

After Cuts

Top 51 - 250.5M

Cap Space - 9.5M

Roster Size - 43

To get to 54 - 11

 

Extension: 

• Josh Allen - 8 year, 400M, 15M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base Salary to ~2M, ~ savings of 10M in 2025)
• Gregg Rousseau - 5 year 100M, 20M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base to ~ 3M, ~ savings of 7M in 2025)
• Rasul Douglas - 2+2 year 8M, 3M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base to ~1M ~ Savings of 2.5M  in 2025)
• Amari Cooper - 4 year, 60M, 10M Bonus ~ 10M 2025 Cap Hit

 

After Extensions:

Top 51 - 240M

Cap Space - 10M

Roster Size  - 43

 

Restructures

• Ed Oliver ~ 6.5M Savings
• Dawson Knox ~ $7M Savings

 

After Restructures

Top 51 - 225M

Cap Space - 35M

 

Roster Make up

 

Starters Needed

 0

 

Upgrades Desired (obviously up for discussion)

1 - Safety over either Rapp or Cole Bishop

1 - Corner over Rasul Douglas

 

Depth Needed

1 RB

2 WR

1 TE

1 OT

1 DT

1 EDGE

1 Safety

 

Draft Picks - 8 Total

1st Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Minnesota, via Houston)

4th Round Pick (Buffalo)

4th Round Pick (Chicago*)

6th Round Pick (Buffalo)

6th Round Pick (New York Giants)

6th Round Pick (Cleveland)

 

Thanks for all the work on this - good work to level-set the cap space and draft picks the team has to work with. 

Two high-end 6th Round picks from the Giants and Browns.

 

After the Cooper trade, I took the stance that I did not want the Bills to re-sign him. I think the Bills should invest at WR, get younger and faster at WR. 
 

And while I think Cooper is still in his late prime, the pragmatic thing to do is save that money for our own up and coming players - Shakir, Benford, Bernard and keep runway for players best years. 

Rasul Douglas is in the same boat for me. He’s very good, but paying 30 year old corners? 
 

Someone like London Fletcher bit the Bills letting him go at 31, Andrew Whitworth walking crippled the Bengals line for years, so like anything else there are no guarantees. 
 

8 Draft Picks - Needs would be DT, DE, LB, S, CB - Bills really have no young perimeter corners beyond Douglas and Benford. Basically the Bills would need reinforcements at every position group. Start preparing for life without DaQuan Jones. 

 

Offensively, I’d keep Knox’s contract the same and invest at WR, search for an X.
 

OT, IOL - two offensive lineman that are best available. 
 

Cook will be in his last year, Ray Davis on a rookie deal, probably good enough to come back, but Cooks ypc has come down every year, another back with speed would be helpful, and Ty Johnson has become the Bills 3rd down back. Ray Davis is not a #1 back. 
 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 01:47 AM by Straight Hucklebuck

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Cheers @appoo for the detail on this. I am thinking the offseason moves as far as re-signing players would be Groot and Benford. If they were going to try to extend Douglas, I think you would have seen it last off season.

 

Cooper I am really not sure what to make of it. With Shakir, Samuel and Coleman all guaranteed back next year (plus Kincaid and Knox), I don’t see this as something they’re going to over extend themselves on.

 

If my prediction of Benford isn’t right, then its likely going to be a Bernard or Shakir extension. They’ve got a couple young up and comers that need new deals and you can’t wait on all of them. If they want a guy long term, best to do it now. 
 

Long story short, they really are in a solid position moving forward. 
 

Best QB in the league

OL and RB room returning

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Knox, Kincaid under contract

 

Groot Epinessa Oliver Carter 

Milano Bernard Williams

Benford Rapp Bishop

 

A lot of cap room and still plenty of draft capital.

 

I think CB2, 1T DT, DE and WR are where we can look to improve or will need help. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Josh Allen is gonna sign an extension with an AAV out of the top 10?   Come on.  It will be more like 63M per

10 hours ago, Lost said:

I'm really iffy on resigning players over 30 for 4 year contracts after the Von Miller fiasco.   

I agree, actually I think they pay too many players.  This team is able to develop player.   But with Von He tore his ACL.  And he is playing well again.  Any player can tear an ACL.  

[PonyBoy]

20 hours ago, appoo said:

To start, the Bills will carry just $5.4M in Dead cap ($68M this season) with 5 players with Tre White having 4.1M of that.  

 

Total Cap Liability - 266M

Top 51 - 260M

Total Projected Cap space - 8M

Total Roster - 45

 

Probable Cuts

• Von Miller,  8.4M Net cap savings, 15.4M Dead cap
• Jalen Virgil - 1M
• Austin Johnson - 0 (Void year)

 

After Cuts

Top 51 - 250.5M

Cap Space - 9.5M

Roster Size - 43

To get to 54 - 11

 

Extension: 

• Josh Allen - 8 year, 400M, 15M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base Salary to ~2M, ~ savings of 10M in 2025)
• Gregg Rousseau - 5 year 100M, 20M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base to ~ 3M, ~ savings of 7M in 2025)
• Rasul Douglas - 2+2 year 8M, 3M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base to ~1M ~ Savings of 2.5M  in 2025)
• Amari Cooper - 4 year, 60M, 10M Bonus ~ 10M 2025 Cap Hit

 

After Extensions:

Top 51 - 240M

Cap Space - 10M

Roster Size  - 43

 

Restructures

• Ed Oliver ~ 6.5M Savings
• Dawson Knox ~ $7M Savings

 

After Restructures

Top 51 - 225M

Cap Space - 35M

 

Roster Make up

 

Starters Needed

 0

 

Upgrades Desired (obviously up for discussion)

1 - Safety over either Rapp or Cole Bishop

1 - Corner over Rasul Douglas

 

Depth Needed

1 RB

2 WR

1 TE

1 OT

1 DT

1 EDGE

1 Safety

 

Draft Picks - 8 Total

1st Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Minnesota, via Houston)

4th Round Pick (Buffalo)

4th Round Pick (Chicago*)

6th Round Pick (Buffalo)

6th Round Pick (New York Giants)

6th Round Pick (Cleveland)

 

 

 

It's posts like this that continue to amaze me the knowledge and passion of some posters on this site!

Where do some of you folks find the time?

Great work @appoo !!! 👏

[st pete gogolak]

19 hours ago, BearNorth said:

There was a school of thought when we traded for Douglas that he had a couple of years left as a cover corner, but could move to safety and extend his career.  He hasn't had a really big payday for a 29 yr old, so I think he will take the highest offer.  he does have a $4MM dead cap hit the Bills will have to eat.

I must be missing something. How can a FA who leaves to go to another team have a dead cap hit?  

[machine gun kelly]

19 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Douglas for 2 years at 8 mil would be a steal IMO.

 

I get his age, but 4 million average salary for a good corner seems very low

It’s double what’s suggested and he’d be worth it.  We also don’t need to extend Allen yet.  It’s to his advantage as well as his camp knows as the cap goes up, his next contract is even higher.

 

they can renegotiate Von to get one more year out of him amd lessen the dead cap.  Benford, Benford eventually will be extended.  I trust Beane and don’t proclaim to be a GM.  Besides we’re in season.  This can be fodder in February when we’re in the desert for football post SB.

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, dpberr said:

 I don’t see the Bills committing to a long-term contract for *any* player over 29.

 

While I’m a big fan of Rasul Douglas—he’s an exceptional zone corner—the Von Miller deal and the inevitable decline many players experience after that age suggest those resources would be better allocated elsewhere.

Depends on the deal with Rasul , as mentioned above he likely will pursue the money at this point.

 I see Bills looking hard at CB from outside.

 If they can keep Douglas and it makes financial sense? I support that as well

20 hours ago, BearNorth said:

There was a school of thought when we traded for Douglas that he had a couple of years left as a cover corner, but could move to safety and extend his career.  He hasn't had a really big payday for a 29 yr old, so I think he will take the highest offer.  he does have a $4MM dead cap hit the Bills will have to eat.

If he could successfully move to Safety that would be a boon for McD. loving that flexibility for disguise.

But then you need to draft one who will start by year two and possibly pay Douglas a bit more than we might like.

Nice thought though

[Sojourner]

17 hours ago, appoo said:

One thing that continues to intrigue me about the Josh Allen era Bills' roster is how few first round picks they play, yet they do have a lot of 2nd/3rd round guys

 

QB - Josh Allen - 1st round

RB - James Cook - 2nd round

WR - Amari Cooper - 1st round (traded at age 30)

WR - Shakir - 5th round

WR - Keon Coleman - 2nd round

TE - Dalton Kincaid - 1st round

LT - Dion Dawkins - 2nd round

LG - Davif Edwards - 5th round

C - Connor McGovern - 3rd Round

RG - Torrance - 2nd round

RT - Brown - 3rd round

 

DE - Rousseau - 1st round

DE - AJE - 2nd round

DT - Ed Oliver - 1st Round

DT - DJ - 4th round

LB - Bernard - 3rd round

LB - Dorian Williams - 3rd Round

CB - Benford - 6th round

CB - Rasul Douglas - 3rd Round

NCB - Johnson - 4th Round

SAF - Damar Hamlin - 6th Round

SAF - Rapp - 2nd Round

 

Not saying it's good or bad or even normal/abnormal, but the among the starters there's 5 first round picks, one of them traded for at age 30. Also a ton of home grown talent

Um, we didn’t have a 1st rounder in 2020 and our 1st rounder this year is technically Keon Coleman. 
 

You’re also missing Tremaine Edmunds.

So including Josh’s draft year there’s been 6, technically 7 if you allocate Keon, first rounders. 
 

Every single one has seen significant roles or time on the field with the exception on Elam. 
 

I get your point being rounds in total and not by draft but only a small percentage of first rounders are mainstays in the league and most who are resign with the drafting team or are overpaid by another who’s less successful with hitting those same draft picks. 
 

So Buffalo, by that metric are in a good spot. They’ve hit the majority of guys they draft in that first round and don’t throw the bank at first rounders who move on from their team, outwith Von; whom you didn’t mention. 

[appoo]

2 hours ago, PonyBoy said:

 

 

It's posts like this that continue to amaze me the knowledge and passion of some posters on this site!

Where do some of you folks find the time?

Great work @appoo !!! 👏

Mostly an hour where I don’t feel like working lol

[ColoradoBills]

22 hours ago, appoo said:

Extension: 

• Josh Allen - 8 year, 400M, 15M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base Salary to ~2M, ~ savings of 10M in 2025)
• Gregg Rousseau - 5 year 100M, 20M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base to ~ 3M, ~ savings of 7M in 2025)
• Rasul Douglas - 2+2 year 8M, 3M Signing Bonus (Drop his 2025 Base to ~1M ~ Savings of 2.5M  in 2025)
• Amari Cooper - 4 year, 60M, 10M Bonus ~ 10M 2025 Cap Hit

 

Good OP Appoo but some of these extension details I have to disagree with.

 

Josh Allen is not signing an 8-year extension.  That puts him under contract until he's 40 years old.

No extension next season.  He does a simple $11M restructure.

Josh extending too early does not help the Bills.  It's why his 6-year deal was "club friendly".

When he does extend (most likely in 2026), he will be getting WAY more than $50M per.  

 

Douglas is an UFA and has $4.1M in void year cap.  That either goes to dead money if he walks or has to get folded into a contract extension.

Rasul will get someone to pay him $10M per for a 2-year contract.  One way or the other there will be no 2025 "savings".

 

Amari Cooper will be 31 when next season starts.  No one is signing him to a 4-year contract.

Although, the $15M per is about right.

 

Groot signs an extension that frees up some money but I'm hesitant to say it will be a 5-year deal.

[BearNorth]

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

I must be missing something. How can a FA who leaves to go to another team have a dead cap hit?  

The Bills negotiated a 3 yr contract at $21 MM for this season, but only his signing bonus is guaranteed $5.3MM, and they used a void year to spread the signing bonus out over 4 years.  Interesting this year, 2024 he also is hitting Green Bay's cap for $5.1MM in dead cap.

 

Bills are carrying a ton of dead cap for people who either left or were traded, Diggs, Tre White, Leonard Floyd, Ryan Bates, Micah Hyde, Mitch Morse, Mike Edwards and Poyer are all counting more than $2MM towards this years cap.

Edited 11 hours ago by BearNorth

[klos63]

18 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Really?  You are one of the few I’ve seen that feels Von was worth it.  As for Cooper, he has to want to be here as well, and I suspect he will prefer a warm weather team for his next and maybe last big contract. 

The issue with Von was a torn ACL. When 100%, he was dominant. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Umm... JA will get way more than $50m a year AAV when he's extended and he should.

 

Dak is getting $60. Josh & Mahomes will both probably get about $65 whenever they redo their contracts.

 

Gotta rework your numbers