Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV

[JP51]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

It's one of the things McCarthy struggled with in green bay.  Even moreso in dallas you really need to assert yourself and manage the entire organization - not just call plays.  Parsons in particular seems to be a player who... needs some extra attention.  Talent is there, you just need to figure out how to get that talent on the field every play.  A captain in the Sean Lee mold would do wonders for them.  

Yeah and Dak staying healthy wouldn't hurt, Cooper Rush just looks way out of his league I was hoping they would upset the Texans for obvious reasons, but it became apparent like 8 minutes in that wasn't happening. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, JP51 said:

Yeah and Dak staying healthy wouldn't hurt, Cooper Rush just looks way out of his league I was hoping they would upset the Texans for obvious reasons, but it became apparent like 8 minutes in that wasn't happening. 

 

Rush looked better last game, he was thrown to the wolves against philly.  I don't know how these coaches can put together game plans for backup QBs and have no threat down the field, then expect anything to happen on offense.  Reminded me of the first Devito start last season when they just handcuffed him completely and expected to have a chance to win.  I might have fired daboll on the spot after that train wreck.  

[Mr. WEO]

I was hoping for heat maps....

[JP51]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Rush looked better last game, he was thrown to the wolves against philly.  I don't know how these coaches can put together game plans for backup QBs and have no threat down the field, then expect anything to happen on offense.  Reminded me of the first Devito start last season when they just handcuffed him completely and expected to have a chance to win.  I might have fired daboll on the spot after that train wreck.  

I remember that game... he didnt throw the ball for like 2 quarters. They would have been better off in a wildcat formation

[ColoradoBills]

Awesome job @JGMcD2.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, JP51 said:

I remember that game... he didnt throw the ball for like 2 quarters. They would have been better off in a wildcat formation

 

I went through the box score, tyrod got hurt so he clearly wasn't prepared to play.  But isn't that on the coaching staff for having a backup who's wholly unprepared to play?  

[eball]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No, I don't. He gets major kudos for drafting Josh Allen. To win a Superbowl, he has to build around him. My question here is really how well we have done that. 

 

Fair enough.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, eball said:

 

My only "beef" with your comments -- and it's a minor one -- is that you consistently want to "exclude" the Allen draft pick when evaluating Beane as a GM.  He's the guy who evaluated all of the QBs and targeted Allen, when so many "experts" (yourself included) thought Allen would be a bust.  The guy who chose the most important player in Bills history deserves to receive full credit when evaluating his overall body of work.

 

 

I think that's a fair point.  But it's also a fair point that a team (and a GM's) ultimate success or failure depends not only on whether they land that elusive "Franchise Guy", but whether they are successful at putting a team around him, and especially after he 'gets paid".

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a point I've raised with @JGMcD2 in previous years. I think the work is excellent and the methodology decent but I do think it possibly undervalues that difference between star / elite level guy and good productive starter. But while the methodology might be imperfect it is better than gut feel and I think when you look at the top 10/12 it broadly feels right in terms of what the eye test tells you about teams who have drafted well in recent years.

 

As for the Bills specifically Brandon Beane misses on fewer draft picks than almost any of his peers. He has some advantages in that regard we should say, a Head Coach with whom he is in total lock step, an owner who does not interfere and trusts him to do his job and not a ton of scheme change / turnover on either side of the ball (they have changed offensive scheme somewhat this year but it is basically the first time since 2018). That helps him score well in this analysis and so it should. 

 

@JGMcD2 - one request... can we see a cumulative ranking without 2018? My contention is Beane's two best picks - Allen and Taron - came in that class and I'd like to get a sense of how he has built around Josh since. But even the year by year breakdown feels right - 2020 and 2021 were okay drafts, not great, then the 2022 class bounced back into that top 6 or so.

 

 

Yeah McBeane have created a ton of synergy by building a culture and systems that allow them to get more from the players they draft.   When a guy like Gabe Davis walks it's not surprising when he crashes and burns elsewhere.   Gone are the days when it seemed every player left Buffalo and became the best version of themselves as a player.   

 

The 1990's Bills had something similar and it allowed them to maintain a very deep roster despite being a playoff team and drafting late in rounds 10 times in 12 seasons from 88'-99'.    But what we learned from the 90's drafting is that eventually you can go broke just trying to make a profit.   You gotta' keep getting stars.  

[MJS]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree except he doesn't do the talent evaluation. Will McClay does that and is one of the best in the business. They pay him more than some GMs get to stay without the title. 

 

The bits Jerry controls, hiring coaches and the strategy for extending contracts and paying guys is where they have had issues.

Yes. The issue is that good, solid players are treated like superstars in Dallas, and they get paid liked that, which means almost everyone is getting overpaid there. So, while they have a lot of good talent, they are hamstrung by overpaid players who consistently underperform.

[GASabresIUFan]

Someone asked how well has Beane drafted around JA? I hope this helps.

1) pro-bowl running back - James Cook and an excellent complimentary back in Davis 

2) NFL leader in catch % and 2nd in YAC - Shakir

3) 8th in yards by a TE to start a career - Kincaid (plus an very good but overpaid backup in Knox)

4) Pro Bowl+ tackles - Dawkins and Brown (Dawkins drafted the season Beane arrived but by Whatley)

5) 2nd starter at Guard - Torrence.

6) Top 10 rookie receiver in Coleman.

By my count that’s 7 good to great starters and 2 extremely good backups all drafted by the Bills to support Allen.

 

Beane then brought in 3 good players to fill the draft holes in Cooper, Edwards and McGovern.  
 

I’d say Josh has a great support mechanism ———> 9-2

 

The other side of ball is getting closer to being filled with draftees (starters only)

DL - Rousseau, Oliver, Epenesa - (Carter in for Jones next season?)

LB - Milano (Whatley). Williams and Bernard

CB - Benford —->(Elam next year’s starter for Douglas?)

S - Hamlin —->(Bishop in for Hamlin next year?