Clinch playoffs with win next week

[loedward22]

The NY Times playoff tool says the Bills clinch the playoffs with a win against SF next week... I haven't seen/heard this discussed elsewhere.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

Edited November 22 by loedward22
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[LEBills]

1 minute ago, loedward22 said:

The NY Times playoff tool says the Bills clinch the playoffs with a win against SF next week... I haven't seen/heard this discussed elsewhere.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

If the dolphins lose a game before we play to get to 7 losses, yes

[loedward22]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

If the dolphins lose a game before we play to get to 7 losses, yes

 

No, this is saying regardless of everything else, if they win they clinch the playoffs.  The Dolphins getting to 7 losses would mean a win next week would win the division.

[Yobogoya!]

2 minutes ago, loedward22 said:

 

No, this is saying regardless of everything else, if they win they clinch the playoffs.  The Dolphins getting to 7 losses would mean a win next week would win the division.

Can’t be, the Bills can’t mathematically clinch a wild card with ten wins right now. Too many other teams could easily eclipse that if they win out — including Miami. 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, loedward22 said:

The NY Times playoff tool says the Bills clinch the playoffs with a win against SF next week... I haven't seen/heard this discussed elsewhere.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

You know how we used to not be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but we always knew we were kinda eliminated already?

 

This is like that, except backwards.

[loedward22]

6 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

Can’t be, the Bills can’t mathematically clinch a wild card with ten wins right now. Too many other teams could easily eclipse that if they win out — including Miami. 

 

This is why it stood out to me.  I looked at all the records of the other teams and questioned it because there are a bunch of teams still alive to get above 10 wins.  But it must be a combination of tie breaker stuff and that some of those teams have to play themselves.

 

I believe the NY times playoff machine.

 

2 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

We have to win and Dolphins have to lose and we clinch.

 

We’re 9-2 and Dolphins are 4-6. If we win next week and lose the rest of our games we finish 10-7. If the Dolphins win out they finish 11-6, there is no way we clinch the division next week without a Dolphins loss this week or next.

 

This argument is directed at the Bills path to clinching the division.  I'm not talking about winning the division.  I'm talking about clinching a playoff spot.

Edited November 22 by loedward22

[streetkings01]

5 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

Can’t be, the Bills can’t mathematically clinch a wild card with ten wins right now. Too many other teams could easily eclipse that if they win out — including Miami. 

I think the reasoning may be that some of those teams play each other?

2 minutes ago, loedward22 said:

 

This is why it stood out to me.  I looked at all the records of the other teams and questioned it because there are a bunch of teams still alive to get above 10 wins.  But it must be a combination of tie breaker stuff and that some of those teams have to play themselves.

 

I believe the NY times playoff machine.

 

This argument is directed at the Bills path to clinching the division.  I'm not talking about winning the division.  I'm talking about clinching a playoff spot.

Yea I know….i deleted my post.

[LEBills]

4 minutes ago, loedward22 said:

 

No, this is saying regardless of everything else, if they win they clinch the playoffs.  The Dolphins getting to 7 losses would mean a win next week would win the division.

Not sure that would be right. If we win next week the worst we could finish is 10-7. Indy, Denver, LAC, Baltimore and Miami all have less than 7 losses and are not already leading their division. Some of them do play each other over the next few weeks, maybe when that factors in it narrows it down enough the bills can clinch with 10 wins.

 

 

[Yobogoya!]

5 minutes ago, loedward22 said:

 

This is why it stood out to me.  I looked at all the records of the other teams and questioned it because there are a bunch of teams still alive to get above 10 wins.  But it must be a combination of tie breaker stuff and that some of those teams have to play themselves.

 

I believe the NY times playoff machine.

 

 

This argument is directed at the Bills path to clinching the division.  I'm not talking about winning the division.  I'm talking about clinching a playoff spot.

Damn. That’s some pretty wild schedule shenanigans if all the “in the hunt” teams — including Miami — play each other enough to make it mathematically impossible for any combo of teams to box the Bills out of the wild card… with 7 games left to play! 

[Dan Darragh]

15 minutes ago, loedward22 said:

I believe the NY times playoff machine.

Yes, the infallible NY Times.

Edited November 22 by Dan Darragh

[strive_for_five_guy]

Interesting, we’re essentially a coin flip with the Chiefs at this point to earn the 1 seed.  And given 17% chance to win SB while they’re at 10%.  In other words, even if we don’t get the bye, however this formula is working figures we still have a decent shot of winning it all.  If we do earn the 1 seed, those odds will go up a good amount.

[loedward22]

8 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Yes, the infallible NY Times.

 

Is this directed at the NY Times in general or their playoff machine?  Has their playoff machine proven wrong before?  I'm asking honestly because I'm not sure if it isn't flawed.

 

I played around with the ESPN playoff machine just now and I couldn't get the Bills out of the playoffs if I put a win in for next week.  I can't get all of the contending teams in and the Bills out.

[Gregg]

The magic number to win the division is 2. Either 2 Bills wins or 2 Dolphins losses or a combination of 1 Bills win and 1 Dolphins loss. Miami is 4-6 so another loss and the best they can do is 10-7. Bills needs 1 win to get to 10 and they swept the Dolphins. So, the tiebreaker goes to the Bills. Have to root for the Pats to upset the Dolphins this Sunday. If not, then I think GB will beat the Dolphins at home on TNF. 

Edited November 22 by Gregg

[loedward22]

3 minutes ago, Gregg said:

The magic number to win the division is 2. Either 2 Bills wins or 2 Dolphins losses or a combination of 1 Bills win and 1 Dolphins loss. Miami is 4-6 so another loss and the best they can do is 10-7. Bills needs 1 win to get to 10 and they swept the Dolphins. So, the tiebreaker goes to the Bills. Have to root for the Pats to upset the Dolphins this Sunday. If not, then I think GB will beat the Dolphins at home on TNF. 

 

But again, this is for a playoff spot not the division.   They're saying the magic number for the playoffs is 1.

Edited November 22 by loedward22

[MJS]

Cool.

[dorquemada]

24 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Yes, the infallible NY Times.

 

To be fair, and I am an absolute savage critic of the NYT regularly blowing things up in their comments sections, there's a huge difference at the NYT between their editorial slant (bad and uncool) and their hard reporting/production values/tech (really, really good).  I don't like giving the opposition money but I do subscribe to the times online bc there's enough of value to make it worth it.  Generally speaking their tools like the playoff machine are solid.

[patzen]

I just ran the simulation myself, and after 166,000 simulations it said 100% chance we make the playoffs if we beat San Fran next week. I then chose "more simulations", and the prediction changed to >99% chance to make the playoffs. So it's not a 100% chance, but I guess it's so unlikely that it didn't show up in the first 166,000 simulations.

[GASabresIUFan]

26 minutes ago, Gregg said:

The magic number to win the division is 2. Either 2 Bills wins or 2 Dolphins losses or a combination of 1 Bills win and 1 Dolphins loss. Miami is 4-6 so another loss and the best they can do is 10-7. Bills needs 1 win to get to 10 and they swept the Dolphins. So, the tiebreaker goes to the Bills. Have to root for the Pats to upset the Dolphins this Sunday. If not, then I think GB will beat the Dolphins at home on TNF. 

I wrote last week in another thread before the Chiefs game that our magic number was 3, but really 2 Bills win combined with one loss by NE, the Jets and Miami and we clinch the division.  The Bills Jets and NE all cooperated.  So now the number is one Bills win eliminates the Jets and Pats from the division.  We still need Miami to lose one.

 

As to the playoffs otherwise, my guess is the playoff machines look at the games the other 9 playoff contenders play against each other to determine who will be eliminated with each result.  
 

Ultimately it comes down to if the Bills win against SF and Miami losses to either NE or GB.  This way the Bills clinch the East and a playoff spot.

 

 

Edited November 22 by GASabresIUFan

[SoCal Deek]

I rarely look ahead anymore. Too many nightmare years being listed as ‘in the hunt’ on thanksgiving day. But…following the Steelers loss last night just go into the various AFC contenders remaining schedules and look at the win/loss records of their opponents. The Bills have ONE team left with a winning record (Detroit) whereas the other contenders are about to run a much more challenging gauntlet. 

[BillsFan130]

I believe the magic number is 2? Which is crazy to think