Brock Purdy- Shoulder Injury

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Why don't you take out a second mortgage and put it on SF if you really believe this? Put your money where your post is!

I have a good amount of money I put on them to win it all at the start of the season before all the injuries happened. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

I have a good amount of money I put on them to win it all at the start of the season before all the injuries happened. 

 

Guess that went down in flames.

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

We have the same DVOA as last year, which was the lowest DVOA we have had in the 2020’s. In 2022 in was 38.9 which was the best in football. EPA aligns with this as well. 

 

You know I've been willing to be critical of this regime. However I will say this year genuinely does feel different. Part of it is the record for sure. I am very much a "you are who your record says you are" kind of fan. Putting all the analytics aside, we're 9-2 for the first time ever under this regime. That's meaningful.

 

We're 3-1 in games decided by one score (personally I would also classify the Chiefs game as a close game win, in the spirit of the term, and put us at 4-1 in that scenario). That's markedly improved from recent years. I know the common belief is that one score games are coin flips and that the record in those games isn't indicative of anything. I don't agree with that. I believe some teams have the structure and fortitude necessary to pull those games out more than others. Our team this year appears to have that makeup.

 

I'm not going to discount analytics but they don't tell the whole story. The Chiefs rank 7th in DVOA yet I'm sure you would agree they are the Super Bowl favorite until proven otherwise. The reason for that is what I described above - they have the uncanny ability to pull out close games. I think a lot of games come down to 5% of the snaps. Analytics can tell you how a team compares in their performance over an entire game, but DVOA does not properly account for high leverage moments at critical junctures in a game. That 5% is not properly weighted in the data. The Bills and Chiefs have both been making winning plays in that 5%. That to me is more indicative of championship potential than whatever difference exists between them and other teams over the course of an entire game.

 

What stands out to me is that we are finding multiple ways to win. Offense, defense, and special teams have all had a turn in creating blowouts or pulling out close wins. I'm more impressed with the defense than I have been in recent years. I recognize the analytics say that prior year defenses were better, but this defense creates plays in a way that I'm not used to seeing. We have at least one takeaway in every game this year. We got pressure on Mahomes like we never have before. We're making stops on 3rd and 4th down. The numbers might not show it but it feels different to me. On offense I feel the same. We have shown an ability to win in multiple ways. Again, I'm sure the 2020 numbers for example are better, but explosive passing offenses like that are mostly a relic of the near past. We have enough variety in our personnel that we can genuinely beat defenses any way they want to play us, and that has not been the case ever in the Josh Allen era.

 

Also part of me thinks (hopes) that our injury luck may have been reversed this year. In the past we had seemingly nonstop injuries pop up in late December and January. This year all of the injuries are getting out of the way by the end of November. Of course we still have to see what our injury report looks like in a month, but again it just feels different to me.

 

So I know a lot of this is just my feelings/eye test and I don't have the numbers to back any of it up. I will still worry about our coaching staff's ability to execute in high leverage moments in playoff games until they prove otherwise. But the results so far to me do not feel like more of the same. As of this moment I feel more optimistic now about the Bills Super Bowl chances than I ever have at this time of year in the Josh Allen era. If you don't, I get it.

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

When fans say “eye test”.  It means they have a narrative and it’s just a fake addition of “information” to support that narrative. 

 

Scouts attend games to give the players the "eye test".  If they didn't their jobs would be taken over by a statistic computer program.

If some fans abuse it that does not lessen its importance. 

[Dan]

17 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

That’s fine Gunner. I respect you as a poster but we are just looking at this different.
 

I measure this team on how deep they get, period. At the end of the day I don’t really care what the circumstances are. Life tends to not care about the “variables” and when you introduce them it turns into a never ending hypothetical. Nobody cares that I overcame X or Y to get to the place I’m at. Life isn’t about these nuances. 

 

Have we been the better franchise excluding the playoffs? Sure. We have been more consistent. Our floor is higher but so far there ceiling is higher and I would rather this mo fo be cathedral ceilings with how I look at this. They just have gotten way deeper.
 

We did the whole champions of the decade in the 90’s. Would I trade it for one 2010‘s Eagles or 1990’s Giants/Redskins style Super Bowl? Hell ya I would. We already had won the round as the team of the decade and it’s hard to top the 90’s with that designation.
 

My outlook at this point is pure results.  That, we don’t really have. I’m hopeful on this iteration. We will see how it goes. If we don’t make the conference championship at this point I will keep feeling as I do. We need to accomplish more outside the regular season and early playoffs. 

I’ve decided to just stop reading this thread because of the devolution of discussion.  But on my way out, just felt the urge to rhetorically ask, why you’re even here?   If nothing the Bills have ever done or are doing matters, until they win the Superbowl, why not just tune out until that game?    It’s fairly clear that nothing they accomplish currently matters.  I do wonder though, if they win the Superbowl this year… does the narrative become well you can’t support them till they win 2 in a row like the Chiefs?    Some people just can’t be happy, and seem to only enjoy when they tell us all how unhappy we should be.  
 

In an effort to contribute something,  I’ll just say I don’t think it matters Purdy or not.. If we shut down the run game we win.  I just don’t see Purdy with a sore shoulder or a backup coming to Buffalo in that weather and being able to move the ball effectively through the air. 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

For me, I'm reminded of 2022.

 

I'm not saying things will turn out that way, but you don't have to look that far back to see when people were saying things like "you are what your record says you are" and hand-waving away the obvious issues. We controlled the 1 seed the 2nd half of the season until the Bengals game was cancelled, and people thought it was definitely our year.

 

I've seen a lot of revisionist conversations around that year, with a lot of people acting like "well of course we were going to lose in the playoffs... everyone saw that coming!" but in reality, most people didn't want to hear that at the time.

 

Again, I'm not saying "this is 2022 all over again!" I'm simply pointing out that it could still go either way.

 

Things that would help convince me this team is different & to REALLY buy in:

 

1. Allen playing more efficient like at the beginning of the year. He's thrown 5 INTs in the last 4 games vs 0 INTs in the first 7.

2. Defense being able to stop / better manage good RBs

3. Defense continuing to get pressure on QBs

4. Being able to establish the run against good defenses & Cook being more productive overall

5. WRs & TEs making plays down field. We've been effective getting WR screens & short outlet passes going, but it'd be nice to see more plays further down the field open up. The better defenses in the playoffs will look to stop the short game, and we haven't shown that we can punish them over the top.

 

Not all of these things need to happen, but I'd like to see any of them happen when the opportunity presents itself. Like they have a chance to prove #2 against the 49ers & especially the Lions. #1  & #5 would be a good time vs the Rams, Lions & Patriots, as they're in the bottom half of the league in pass defense.

3 of those 5 int's were 100% the fault of Cooper, Coleman & Knox.  I still have my doubts about our front 4 stopping the run or getting sacks. Once the playoffs start, QBS are elite.

[26TrapDraw]

16 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Where are you getting your stats from?

 

Yes I realize it is 2nd half stats. but come on.  You really think they are worst than 2020-2022?

 

 

To me this just screams quality coaching. We know that to be true as Brady and Babich both have their units playing great in the second half after adjustments. Great teams adjust at the half and win games period. 

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

I’ve decided to just stop reading this thread because of the devolution of discussion.  But on my way out, just felt the urge to rhetorically ask, why you’re even here?   If nothing the Bills have ever done or are doing matters, until they win the Superbowl, why not just tune out until that game?    It’s fairly clear that nothing they accomplish currently matters.  I do wonder though, if they win the Superbowl this year… does the narrative become well you can’t support them till they win 2 in a row like the Chiefs?    Some people just can’t be happy, and seem to only enjoy when they tell us all how unhappy we should be.  
 

In an effort to contribute something,  I’ll just say I don’t think it matters Purdy or not.. If we shut down the run game we win.  I just don’t see Purdy with a sore shoulder or a backup coming to Buffalo in that weather and being able to move the ball effectively through the air. 

Fresh take, since I’m willing to debate against my team when it makes sense I should just shut up and leave. Nice way to build a balanced community. I’m sorry I don’t fit in your little box. 

 

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know I've been willing to be critical of this regime. However I will say this year genuinely does feel different. Part of it is the record for sure. I am very much a "you are who your record says you are" kind of fan. Putting all the analytics aside, we're 9-2 for the first time ever under this regime. That's meaningful.

 

We're 3-1 in games decided by one score (personally I would also classify the Chiefs game as a close game win, in the spirit of the term, and put us at 4-1 in that scenario). That's markedly improved from recent years. I know the common belief is that one score games are coin flips and that the record in those games isn't indicative of anything. I don't agree with that. I believe some teams have the structure and fortitude necessary to pull those games out more than others. Our team this year appears to have that makeup.

 

I'm not going to discount analytics but they don't tell the whole story. The Chiefs rank 7th in DVOA yet I'm sure you would agree they are the Super Bowl favorite until proven otherwise. The reason for that is what I described above - they have the uncanny ability to pull out close games. I think a lot of games come down to 5% of the snaps. Analytics can tell you how a team compares in their performance over an entire game, but DVOA does not properly account for high leverage moments at critical junctures in a game. That 5% is not properly weighted in the data. The Bills and Chiefs have both been making winning plays in that 5%. That to me is more indicative of championship potential than whatever difference exists between them and other teams over the course of an entire game.

 

What stands out to me is that we are finding multiple ways to win. Offense, defense, and special teams have all had a turn in creating blowouts or pulling out close wins. I'm more impressed with the defense than I have been in recent years. I recognize the analytics say that prior year defenses were better, but this defense creates plays in a way that I'm not used to seeing. We have at least one takeaway in every game this year. We got pressure on Mahomes like we never have before. We're making stops on 3rd and 4th down. The numbers might not show it but it feels different to me. On offense I feel the same. We have shown an ability to win in multiple ways. Again, I'm sure the 2020 numbers for example are better, but explosive passing offenses like that are mostly a relic of the near past. We have enough variety in our personnel that we can genuinely beat defenses any way they want to play us, and that has not been the case ever in the Josh Allen era.

 

Also part of me thinks (hopes) that our injury luck may have been reversed this year. In the past we had seemingly nonstop injuries pop up in late December and January. This year all of the injuries are getting out of the way by the end of November. Of course we still have to see what our injury report looks like in a month, but again it just feels different to me.

 

So I know a lot of this is just my feelings/eye test and I don't have the numbers to back any of it up. I will still worry about our coaching staff's ability to execute in high leverage moments in playoff games until they prove otherwise. But the results so far to me do not feel like more of the same. As of this moment I feel more optimistic now about the Bills Super Bowl chances than I ever have at this time of year in the Josh Allen era. If you don't, I get it.

Sure, some of me feels like this is different. But then I remind myself that I said I would never judge this team or coach on the regular season again. Just been fooled hard way too much.
 

I’m about as far toward the positive with this team as I can be right now. I didn’t think I would get here this season but I am, and it makes me very happy. We have just seen the rug pull way too frequently with this regime so I’m still going to argue the side of balanced perspective. Not that you aren’t, as I largely feel the same as your post, just in general. 

Further I’m not even sure KC is the main threat at this point. All these AFC contenders can really run the ball and play physical defense. Seems like a really bad year to be an undersized pursuit defense. 
 

I’m curious given we have been aligned on some of this stuff before, how do you evaluate this year if we get no deeper than the Divisional again? Is it then become same old Bills? If you want to DM me a response that’s fine. Simon is not happy with this thread and I don’t blame him. 
 

I didn’t see updates on Purdy today either in case somebody has heard something. 

[Allen2Moulds]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know I've been willing to be critical of this regime. However I will say this year genuinely does feel different. Part of it is the record for sure. I am very much a "you are who your record says you are" kind of fan. Putting all the analytics aside, we're 9-2 for the first time ever under this regime. That's meaningful.

 

We're 3-1 in games decided by one score (personally I would also classify the Chiefs game as a close game win, in the spirit of the term, and put us at 4-1 in that scenario). That's markedly improved from recent years. I know the common belief is that one score games are coin flips and that the record in those games isn't indicative of anything. I don't agree with that. I believe some teams have the structure and fortitude necessary to pull those games out more than others. Our team this year appears to have that makeup.

 

I'm not going to discount analytics but they don't tell the whole story. The Chiefs rank 7th in DVOA yet I'm sure you would agree they are the Super Bowl favorite until proven otherwise. The reason for that is what I described above - they have the uncanny ability to pull out close games. I think a lot of games come down to 5% of the snaps. Analytics can tell you how a team compares in their performance over an entire game, but DVOA does not properly account for high leverage moments at critical junctures in a game. That 5% is not properly weighted in the data. The Bills and Chiefs have both been making winning plays in that 5%. That to me is more indicative of championship potential than whatever difference exists between them and other teams over the course of an entire game.

 

What stands out to me is that we are finding multiple ways to win. Offense, defense, and special teams have all had a turn in creating blowouts or pulling out close wins. I'm more impressed with the defense than I have been in recent years. I recognize the analytics say that prior year defenses were better, but this defense creates plays in a way that I'm not used to seeing. We have at least one takeaway in every game this year. We got pressure on Mahomes like we never have before. We're making stops on 3rd and 4th down. The numbers might not show it but it feels different to me. On offense I feel the same. We have shown an ability to win in multiple ways. Again, I'm sure the 2020 numbers for example are better, but explosive passing offenses like that are mostly a relic of the near past. We have enough variety in our personnel that we can genuinely beat defenses any way they want to play us, and that has not been the case ever in the Josh Allen era.

 

Also part of me thinks (hopes) that our injury luck may have been reversed this year. In the past we had seemingly nonstop injuries pop up in late December and January. This year all of the injuries are getting out of the way by the end of November. Of course we still have to see what our injury report looks like in a month, but again it just feels different to me.

 

So I know a lot of this is just my feelings/eye test and I don't have the numbers to back any of it up. I will still worry about our coaching staff's ability to execute in high leverage moments in playoff games until they prove otherwise. But the results so far to me do not feel like more of the same. As of this moment I feel more optimistic now about the Bills Super Bowl chances than I ever have at this time of year in the Josh Allen era. If you don't, I get it.

Good read, a lot of good info/analysis.  Thanks for posting.

 

I agree with how you feel and point to 2 things, that has me feeling encouraged.  

 

1. Improved physicality in the trenches.  I was upset with them letting Morse go but now believe that this starting 5 is better than last years.  I'm not expert, but only assume it's because it's the continued excellence of Aaron Kromer.  I think McGovern is also a more physical player than Morse, which allowed us to make a mini shift there. I believe it was Chris Simms that said, that the Chiefs feared our running game, and played us as such.  Teams now have to play us as honest as they ever had to, and it's making us nearly unstoppable in that lower redzone area, where most teams struggle.

 

2. This WR group is not the best we've had but seems to be built for January football.  Although elite in his prime, Diggs was not excelling in the playoffs.  Playoff football is a different brand, that requires physicality over finesse, hence Diggs lack of production, especially in the KC games.  Amari Cooper is not known for being physical, but if you watch him, his blend of speed and power is extremely difficult to contend with, or slow down.  Keon is an upgrade over Gabe, and thrives in these physical matchups, and Khalil Shakir is the best YAC guy we've had, and an upgrade over Beasley. The only thing missing is the John Brown deep threat, but Coop does just enough to keep teams honest, along with Keon and his 50/50 ability.  

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I’m curious given we have been aligned on some of this stuff before, how do you evaluate this year if we get no deeper than the Divisional again? Is it then become same old Bills?

 

My standards haven't come down at all. I still think the floor of calling this year a success is reaching the Super Bowl. If we lose in the divisional it will indeed be same old McBeane. I just mean my feelings about the team now are better than they have been in past years around this time. And maybe part of that is the seeming weaknesses of other AFC contenders. 2020 was fun but the Chiefs were clearly ahead of us and I knew it. 2021 we had a ton of issues down the stretch including the infamous Jags/Urban Meyer loss. 2022 Von was out for the season and the good vibes went in the toilet soon after. Last year was nailbiter after nailbiter through basically the entire 2nd half of the season. This year feels different than all that. But who knows, maybe tomorrow the locker room will catch fire and the entire roster will suffer 3rd degree burns. I've seen it all.

[Doc Brown]

18 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Fresh take, since I’m willing to debate against my team when it makes sense I should just shut up and leave. Nice way to build a balanced community. I’m sorry I don’t fit in your little box.  

He has a point though.  If nothing matters to you unless they win in the playoffs why are you here?  You’re just venting about previous playoff failures that just comes across as whining.

[gonzo1105]

Guys this is about Brock Purdys bum ass shoulder lol. Apparently he threw lightly on Monday. We’ll see when he has to ramp up that shoulder on Wednesday 

[2003Contenders]

Getting back to the notion of the original thread -- and tracking Purdy's shoulder injury...

 

The last I heard was that Purdy did some light tossing and workout yesterday, he is resting today, and they want to see how he feels tomorrow. My guess is that he will officially show up on the injury report all week as Questionable regardless of his true status. That said, it will be worth watching to see if he practices tomorrow -- and what he does on Thursday and Friday to see what direction he trends.

 

The 49ers have been notoriously dishonest with the injury designations -- they outright lied about McC's status early on, and were misleading regarding the nature of Aiyuk's injury as well. So we are unlikely to get much in the way of "official" intel on Purdy. As I said, I suspect he will be designated all week as "Questionable" and his activity will be listed as "Limited".

[Billl]

25 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I’m about as far toward the positive with this team as I can be right now. I didn’t think I would get here this season but I am, and it makes me very happy. We have just seen the rug pull way too frequently with this regime so I’m still going to argue the side of balanced perspective. Not that you aren’t, as I largely feel the same as your post, just in general. 

It seems like this team has proven everything it possibly can in November.  I would say the same thing for the Lions.  At this point, there are exactly 5 teams with a legit chance at winning the Super Bowl.  Two of them (Philly and KC) have at least proven they can get to the game.  The rest (Buffalo, Detroit, and Baltimore) are always going to have to listen to the doubters until they eventually break through.  It’s why I don’t see too many Chiefs fans getting too worried that the team looks as unimpressive as a 10-1 team can and why there are a lot of Bills fans who can’t get too excited about being 9-2.  

 

 

[Saint Doug]

18 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Getting back to the notion of the original thread -- and tracking Purdy's shoulder injury...

 

The last I heard was that Purdy did some light tossing and workout yesterday, he is resting today, and they want to see how he feels tomorrow. My guess is that he will officially show up on the injury report all week as Questionable regardless of his true status. That said, it will be worth watching to see if he practices tomorrow -- and what he does on Thursday and Friday to see what direction he trends.

 

The 49ers have been notoriously dishonest with the injury designations -- they outright lied about McC's status early on, and were misleading regarding the nature of Aiyuk's injury as well. So we are unlikely to get much in the way of "official" intel on Purdy. As I said, I suspect he will be designated all week as "Questionable" and his activity will be listed as "Limited".

Now we know where McDaniel gets its from. 

[benderbender]

Purdy will be good to go by Sunday. He'll get the NFL Blitz style round of injections to go because their season is on the line. 

[st pete gogolak]

2 minutes ago, benderbender said:

Purdy will be good to go by Sunday. He'll get the NFL Blitz style round of injections to go because their season is on the line. 

So their season wasn’t on the line on Sunday? If they lose, at worst they are two games out of division lead with a bunch of inter-division games left.  They’ll play Purdy if he’s healthy enough to play. If he’s not, they won’t.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

I have a good amount of money I put on them to win it all at the start of the season before all the injuries happened. 

 

Bad bet.

[gonzo1105]

7 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

So their season wasn’t on the line on Sunday? If they lose, at worst they are two games out of division lead with a bunch of inter-division games left.  They’ll play Purdy if he’s healthy enough to play. If he’s not, they won’t.

Yea I don’t understand this line of thinking either by posters. Last week was a conference game against a fellow WC contender. Their season was just as much on the line last week as this week. Their only chance is really the division now 

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, Billl said:

It seems like this team has proven everything it possibly can in November.  I would say the same thing for the Lions.  At this point, there are exactly 5 teams with a legit chance at winning the Super Bowl.  Two of them (Philly and KC) have at least proven they can get to the game.  The rest (Buffalo, Detroit, and Baltimore) are always going to have to listen to the doubters until they eventually break through.  It’s why I don’t see too many Chiefs fans getting too worried that the team looks as unimpressive as a 10-1 team can and why there are a lot of Bills fans who can’t get too excited about being 9-2.  

 

I mean the Eagles got there beating the 49ers 4th string QB. The only one of the five teams I think you can say have proven their pedigree is the Chiefs... but they, arguably, look the most vulnerable of the five right here today, despite the record. Which isn't me writing them off btw. I still think it is going to takena very good team to knock your guys off in January.