Bills have faced the highest percentage of Man Coverage in the NFL this year

[djp14150]

5 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

That’s interesting, I thought teams leaned away from Man vs us due to Allen’s running ability?

on theory a man D means you have an extra player to spy Josh and be in the box to help stop the run.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

The one guy that was great against man coverage was Lil Dirty. Go re-sign him! 

[gordong]

6 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

So do we interpret this as that other teams don’t believe our receivers have the speed and/or separation skills to beat them?

 

Because it seems like in a vacuum, that Josh Allen destroys man coverage 

yeah but he's even better against zone... soooo.    LOL.  

[Comebackkid]

i wonder how much of this having to do with us running a fairly shallow offense lately? 

 

easier to run man with less amount of field to defend.   

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

i wonder how much of this having to do with us running a fairly shallow offense lately? 

 

easier to run man with less amount of field to defend.   

 

Maybe, but again they faced top 5% of man since 2019 - even when Dabol was dialing up shot plays down field to Davis, Diggs, and Brown.  2020 they faced man nearly 35% of the time.

 

I am sure there are many factors and the offense and WRs play into it and who knows exactly how the data was actually acquired and if it is 100% accurate, but there seems like their is more to it than whatever is this year.

 

It could be teams we face: NYJ, Miami, NE, KC are all on the schedule every year and maybe they run a higher % of man - I would then expect the other AFC East teams to be higher, but it certainly could be a factor.

 

Just logically- as Man is typically dangerous versus a QB that can run - if this data is true - Josh is the one consistent across the 5 years and we know many times teams try to stack the line and blitz - they also like to have a spy  and try to force Josh to move in the pocket on his runs where the spy can catch him more squarely.

 

I actually think the shallow offense is Brady’s counter to man and blitzes - it has also driven the choices in WR - going bigger with bigger catch radius and RAC ability gives the Bills an advantage in these situations.

[klos63]

14 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I have trouble leaning into the validity of these numbers. Aside from how difficult it is to actually know the true coverage on a play, how is the data being accumulated? Does anyone know this sources (Trumedia) process for classifying coverages? 
 

Its a cool chart and an interesting thing to discuss, but I wonder how accurate they numbers are. 

Is it really that difficult to tell if it's man or zone coverage?  I've never thought that. 

 

 

[warrior9]

15 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

That’s interesting, I thought teams leaned away from Man vs us due to Allen’s running ability?

Blitz and spy, make him get rid of ball early (I'm guessing is the approach?) 

 

I'd have to see how often we're blitzed. 

10 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

i wonder how much of this having to do with us running a fairly shallow offense lately? 

 

easier to run man with less amount of field to defend.   

Yes, now this off-season, we go get a speed guy. That's why I was so against drafting Worthy this go around. We needed a #1 first before we get a guy like that. If we already had Cooper on the team, I would have been all for Worthy. Now we have 2 big bodies outside, Shakir on the inside.. our next addition needs to be a speed guy, whether we resign Coop or not.

[YattaOkasan]

5 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Maybe, but again they faced top 5% of man since 2019 - even when Dabol was dialing up shot plays down field to Davis, Diggs, and Brown.  2020 they faced man nearly 35% of the time.

 

I am sure there are many factors and the offense and WRs play into it and who knows exactly how the data was actually acquired and if it is 100% accurate, but there seems like their is more to it than whatever is this year.

 

It could be teams we face: NYJ, Miami, NE, KC are all on the schedule every year and maybe they run a higher % of man - I would then expect the other AFC East teams to be higher, but it certainly could be a factor.

 

Just logically- as Man is typically dangerous versus a QB that can run - if this data is true - Josh is the one consistent across the 5 years and we know many times teams try to stack the line and blitz - they also like to have a spy  and try to force Josh to move in the pocket on his runs where the spy can catch him more squarely.

 

I actually think the shallow offense is Brady’s counter to man and blitzes - it has also driven the choices in WR - going bigger with bigger catch radius and RAC ability gives the Bills an advantage in these situations.

Great analysis for both the posts, and agree shallow is the counter.  particularly mesh which were running a ton of.  i dont remember a ton of rub plays in past years and for a while this season that seemed the only way we could get separation in M2M (now we have cooooop as well).  I think teams are still stuck on Josh turning the ball over.  Its not really discussed much but I feel as if a lot of scouting (particularly common opponents) happens in the offseason so you have less to prepare during game week (obviously diminishes as the season progresses).  if true, then i could still see teams thinking they can get TOs off Josh by heating him up with extra rushers and M2M (and spy) on the back end.  Great posts!

Edited 21 hours ago by YattaOkasan

[JP51]

17 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Wouldn't this correlate with our WRs not separating well? Just play man and bet you win?  I mean it's not working well anyways!  

I think this is their thought... go man they cant separate ... 

[Mat68]

They are getting better vs it.  Samuel, Shakir, Cooper and Coleman can do it in different ways.  Depending on match up and scheme the backs and Te can create mismatches.  This is why I feel this is the best team Allen has had.  Maybe not the 101 MPH fast ball of the 2021 Bills.  Its still high 90’s with a slider and change up.   What the defense presents Buffalo has options to exploit it in the passing or running game. 

In the have to have it play KC played zone.  Allen shredded that game on third down and most were 3-7 plus.  Mostly vs man.