Bills have faced the highest percentage of Man Coverage in the NFL this year

[Big Turk]

By a huge margin, the Bills face the most man coverage of any team in the NFL.

 

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.  Guess teams have decided to go down with the ship if they are going down against Allen...

 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

Wouldn't this correlate with our WRs not separating well? Just play man and bet you win?  I mean it's not working well anyways!  

Edited 5 hours ago by Goin Breakdown

[mushypeaches]

So do we interpret this as that other teams don’t believe our receivers have the speed and/or separation skills to beat them?

 

Because it seems like in a vacuum, that Josh Allen destroys man coverage 

[BigAl2526]

Well, that means they're still facing zone coverage the majority of the time.  Man coverage generally means it's tougher to run the ball (with running backs at least.  It also means probably facing a higher percentage of plays with a blitzing defense.  On the flip side, it makes defenses more vulnerable to Josh ripping off big plays on the ground.  If a receiver does catch the ball and get free of the DB covering him, he will have a chance to gain big chunks of yardage after the catch.  

[st pete gogolak]

Man, how valuable is Cooper going to be rest of the season and the playoffs?

[MJS]

I'm assuming this means that the Bills are also blitzed a lot? Blitzing often means that you have to have man coverage on the back end. There are zone blitzes, of course, but I do believe that Allen gets blitzed a lot.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Would seem Josh should be able to run well against man coverage. Yet his biggest run of the season was against zone.

 

[JohnNord]

14 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Wouldn't this correlate with our WRs not separating well? Just play man and bet you win?  I mean it's not working well anyways!  

Yes that’s exactly right.  Not only do teams not fear playing our WR’s in M2M coverage but they’ll often dedicate a player to spy Josh.  So it’s one less player in coverage.  This defense was a death wish when Diggs was playing here from 2020-2020.  
 

I do think Cooper will help big once he gets fully healthy.  You saw him make KC pay for the their coverage last week

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Would seem Josh should be able to run well against man coverage. Yet his biggest run of the season was against zone.

 

I believe teams are spying him because they aren’t overly worried about WR’s beating man coverage

[Shaw66]

You know what this discussion sounds like?  It sounds like a lot guys, collectively saying this: Whatever defenses do, the Bills find a way to attack and move the ball. They are diverse in the best way, because they seem to adapt to whatever the defense is doing. 

 

A lot has to do with Josh. Everyone knows his job, but Josh has to walk up to the line of scrimmage, look around, then decide whether to change plays, get everyone to understand the play change, and then execute. And every player knows if he does his job, Josh will find a way. 

 

Get Cooper back and fully tuned in to Josh, get Kincaid and Coleman back, this could be a smokin offense in a few weeks.  

 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

I’d imagine if one looked at the stats over the past 5 years, zone coverage in general is increasing.  For instance, back in 2020, we faced man 35% of the time, which was 5th in the league.  That’s more than we’re even facing man today.  That said, I’m thinking our running game is perceived as

stronger than our WR group, so defenses are more frequently willing to go man to try and stop our run game?

 

For those that know better than I, would 12 personnel or a 6th OL-man encourage defenses to go man against us more frequently too?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

That’s interesting, I thought teams leaned away from Man vs us due to Allen’s running ability?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I have trouble leaning into the validity of these numbers. Aside from how difficult it is to actually know the true coverage on a play, how is the data being accumulated? Does anyone know this sources (Trumedia) process for classifying coverages? 
 

Its a cool chart and an interesting thing to discuss, but I wonder how accurate they numbers are. 

[BearNorth]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

 If a receiver does catch the ball and get free of the DB covering him, he will have a chance to gain big chunks of yardage after the catch.  

And Shakir is I believe #2 in the league in YAC.

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Yes that’s exactly right.  Not only do teams not fear playing our WR’s in M2M coverage but they’ll often dedicate a player to spy Josh.  So it’s one less player in coverage.  This defense was a death wish when Diggs was playing here from 2020-2020.  
 

I do think Cooper will help big once he gets fully healthy.  You saw him make KC pay for the their coverage last week

I believe teams are spying him because they aren’t overly worried about WR’s beating man coverage

Didn't josh get sprung off of that Torrance block on jones?  Torrance is kind of the unsung hero of that play. KC had that play locked down. Josh is a beast tho. Yes Cooper should help going forward. I think him now being here and learning has helped. Plus being healthy is going to be awesome along with the health and availability of our other WRs. 

[Rew]

I'd like to see this normalized in some way for the defenses that we've played against. 

 

Also, it's very shallow (and incomplete ) without a more granular breakdown of scheme.  I thought the rap 2 years ago was that the way to stop the bills and the chiefs was some disguised cover 2 variant.  

 

This data could easily be explained by avoidance of some other set (as opposed to a preference for Man).  As an example, if Josh gives reason to avoid Cover 0, then we could show as higher than average for both Man and Cover 2.  

 

Also, this analysis doesn't really work for a lot of the split field coverages we've been seeing.  It would be great to see if that is called more frequently against us.

 

In summary, this seemed interesting at first glance, but I've talked myself into it not really having any meaningful conclusions.

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Wouldn't this correlate with our WRs not separating well? Just play man and bet you win?  I mean it's not working well anyways!  

 

3 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

So do we interpret this as that other teams don’t believe our receivers have the speed and/or separation skills to beat them?

 

Because it seems like in a vacuum, that Josh Allen destroys man coverage 

 

I think it has less to do with the WRs - although it may be part of the reason their separation numbers are so bad.

 

I believe it is more that teams have to spy Josh and blitz to stop runs and passes.  
 

The Bills have faced large amounts of man most years even with Diggs last year and years prior with Beasley and Brown - suggesting it has less to do with Current WRs and more to do with how teams perceive they must face the Bills Offense under Josh.  

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Yes that’s exactly right.  Not only do teams not fear playing our WR’s in M2M coverage but they’ll often dedicate a player to spy Josh.  So it’s one less player in coverage.  This defense was a death wish when Diggs was playing here from 2020-2020.  
 

I do think Cooper will help big once he gets fully healthy.  You saw him make KC pay for the their coverage last week

I believe teams are spying him because they aren’t overly worried about WR’s beating man coverage

 

If that was the case - why have they been in the Top 5 facing man every year since 2019 and the percentage this year is lower than 2020 and 2021.

 

I think it has more to do with Blitzing and having spy’s than who the WRs are.

 

Just my opinion, but the fact that 2020 was 35% with Diggs, Brown, Beasley, McKenzie and Gabe beating teams deep suggests it is not the WRs, but the gameplan that teams use.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Rochesterfan

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Allen kills the zone. Playing man gives the opposition their best chance to win,albeit slim chance.