I think 14 wins gets the #1 seed.

[SF Bills Fan]

Agree. I think our only loss would be to the Lions, though we may not lose at all. I think the Chiefs have two more losses with that being a combo in the Denver/LA/Pittsburgh portion of their schedule. Even the Raiders can give them fits sometimes. The Texans will be fighting to maintain their lead in the division. no gimmes there.

 

That blocked kick with Denver two weeks ago is more annoying now.

[mjt328]

I'm very happy with how the season has gone so far.  But I still think the #1 seed is a longshot.

 

The Bills still have to play the Lions on the road (possibly the best team in the NFL).  The 49ers are a very good team fighting for their playoff lives (very similar to our situation last season).  The Rams aren't a bad team by any means.  The Jets are always a sneaky in-division matchup, regardless of how bad their year has gone.  14-3 would be an excellent finish, and I would honestly be satisfied with 13-4.

 

The Chiefs have three tough games left with the Chargers, Texans and Steelers, with a couple sneaky division matchups in the Raiders and Broncos.  Personally, I think their remaining schedule is easier than ours.  And they have a one-game lead.  Lots of people are suddenly seeing them as vulnerable.  But less than a week ago, many were considering us the "last hope" in keeping them from going undefeated.  Anything can happen, but I'm not holding out hope here.

 

If we can't get the bye, I think the next best thing is to root hard for the Steelers to win the NFC North.  I would love a scenario where we get the Broncos/Colts in the Wild Card, the Steelers/Texans in the Divisional Round, while the Ravens/Chiefs knock each other out.

 

[flmike]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

What’s up with everyone thinking we lose to the Lions?

 

Ill take Allen over Goff any day of the week.

 

I do admit that the Lions OC is a savant and they have many weapons, but I won’t be shocked at all if McD limits them quite effectively.

 

Im more worried about the 49ers. They are desperate.

We are still playing the bottom of our depth on Defense. 

[JohnNord]

11 hours ago, Gregg said:

Still a lot of football left to get to the #1 seed. But I think the Bills can officially clinch the division before they play SF. If Miami loses to the Pats this week and at GB on TNF next week then the Bills are AFCE champs.

NE loss probably isn’t happening 

4 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I'm very happy with how the season has gone so far.  But I still think the #1 seed is a longshot.

 

The Bills still have to play the Lions on the road (possibly the best team in the NFL).  The 49ers are a very good team fighting for their playoff lives (very similar to our situation last season).  The Rams aren't a bad team by any means.  The Jets are always a sneaky in-division matchup, regardless of how bad their year has gone.  14-3 would be an excellent finish, and I would honestly be satisfied with 13-4.

 

The Chiefs have three tough games left with the Chargers, Texans and Steelers, with a couple sneaky division matchups in the Raiders and Broncos.  Personally, I think their remaining schedule is easier than ours.  And they have a one-game lead.  Lots of people are suddenly seeing them as vulnerable.  But less than a week ago, many were considering us the "last hope" in keeping them from going undefeated.  Anything can happen, but I'm not holding out hope here.

 

If we can't get the bye, I think the next best thing is to root hard for the Steelers to win the NFC North.  I would love a scenario where we get the Broncos/Colts in the Wild Card, the Steelers/Texans in the Divisional Round, while the Ravens/Chiefs knock each other out.

 

How would this happen?  Chiefs would get the bye and it would be the Bills playing the Ravens

[Mister Defense]

13 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

they're at 9 wins. 7 games to go.

 

 

 

High level analysis here and very clear point. 

 

How did you come up with that insight?

 

Obviously the one small error though, as there are only 6 games to go for the Bills, but that can be overlooked because the rest is so sharp.

 

 

[Process]

5 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I'm very happy with how the season has gone so far.  But I still think the #1 seed is a longshot.

 

The Bills still have to play the Lions on the road (possibly the best team in the NFL).  The 49ers are a very good team fighting for their playoff lives (very similar to our situation last season).  The Rams aren't a bad team by any means.  The Jets are always a sneaky in-division matchup, regardless of how bad their year has gone.  14-3 would be an excellent finish, and I would honestly be satisfied with 13-4.

 

The Chiefs have three tough games left with the Chargers, Texans and Steelers, with a couple sneaky division matchups in the Raiders and Broncos.  Personally, I think their remaining schedule is easier than ours.  And they have a one-game lead.  Lots of people are suddenly seeing them as vulnerable.  But less than a week ago, many were considering us the "last hope" in keeping them from going undefeated.  Anything can happen, but I'm not holding out hope here.

 

If we can't get the bye, I think the next best thing is to root hard for the Steelers to win the NFC North.  I would love a scenario where we get the Broncos/Colts in the Wild Card, the Steelers/Texans in the Divisional Round, while the Ravens/Chiefs knock each other out.

 

If we do end up at 2, Pit at 3 and Baltimore at 6 is definitely best case scenario. A dream really. 

[JoshAllin]

In the nytimes playoff simulator the bills percent at a bye is 41% to the chiefs 44%, I'll take those odds

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

I agree that the Bills can lose one more game and still get the first seed.

 

 It sounds silly but I worry about the last three games, against the Pats and Jets.  As bad as they may be, those teams have given the Bills problems over past few years…they will have nothing to lose and we’re likely to get one or more crazy weather games at that time of year…hopefully they will just be in tank mode, fighting it out for a high draft pick.

Only one of those division games is on the road so I think an upset would be pretty unlikely.  We seem to always struggle at MetLife and got that one over with at least 

Edited November 22 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[mannc]

25 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Only one of those division games is on the road so I think an upset would be pretty unlikely.  We seem to always struggle at MetLife and got that one over with at least 

The Browns-Steelers game tonight is exactly the kind of thing I’m worried about…crazy weather, division rival, etc.  Could happen in Buffalo or NE in December 

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, JoshAllin said:

In the nytimes playoff simulator the bills percent at a bye is 41% to the chiefs 44%, I'll take those odds

and that is not a long shot as some of the folks on this thread have chimed.  Go Bills !!!

1 minute ago, mannc said:

The Browns-Steelers game tonight is exactly the kind of thing I’m worried about…crazy weather, division rival, etc.  Could happen in Buffalo or NE in December 

The 6-3 game keeps coming to wind...

[mannc]

23 minutes ago, ganesh said:

 

The 6-3 game keeps coming to wind...

The Bills have played quite a few tight games against bad teams at home in foul weather…the Falcons game a couple years ago comes to mind, as well.

[DCofNC]

20 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

It would be great if they got upset by the Panthers this week but coming off a loss, I expect them to win by at least 10.

My wife is calling a Carolina win, she’s never wrong.

[Gregg]

4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

My wife is calling a Carolina win, she’s never wrong.

 

I hope she is right, but I just can't see it. This feels like one of those games where it will be something like 21-3 at the half with the final something like 34-10. I know the Chiefs usually play close games, but I think this one will be a blowout. First time in 15 games the Chiefs are coming off a loss. I think they take out their frustrations on Carolina.

[mjt328]

20 hours ago, JohnNord said:

How would this happen?  Chiefs would get the bye and it would be the Bills playing the Ravens

 

The ideal scenario is that we get the bye.

If we don't, this is the next best "realistic" scenario I could figure out.

 

Bills get the #2 seed.  They matchup with the #7 in the Wild Card Round.  Best bet would be Denver or Indianapolis.  Hoping Cincinnati doesn't go on a tear and scrape its way into the playoffs.  They are tougher than their record.

 

Pittsburgh gets the #3 and defeats Los Angeles at #6.  Houston gets the #4 and loses to Baltimore at #5.

In this case, we get the Steelers in the Divisional Round... then face the winner of Chiefs vs. Ravens in the AFC Championship.

 

Edited November 22 by mjt328

[eball]

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

My wife is calling a Carolina win, she’s never wrong.

 

She apparently also reads this forum.

 

[Billl]

On 11/21/2024 at 9:05 AM, chongli said:

My fear is both KC and Buffalo win out to be 16-1 and 15-2, respectively. Kind of like Jacksonville finishing 15-1 and Tennessee 14-2 in 1999.

Neither team is winning out.  I think both have 2 more losses in them.  Chiefs finish 14-3, Bills finish 13-4.  Nobody else finishes better than 11-6.

[Eastport bills]

Unfortunately the Chiefs are most likely to get 14 and 3 with the light schedule. Carolina,  Vegas, Chargers in KC, Denver, Houston and Pitt if it still matters.Bills can get there but they have to go 2 and 1 against SF, at Detroit at Rams and then run the table against Patriots (2) NY Jets,  I think playing the Lions indoors is tough, along with the Rams playing for their playoff lives at SoFi. The Chiefs will lose at least 1 but the odds are we will see them in KC going 4 and 2 in our last 6.

[Kelly to Allen]

Bills vs dolphins 1990 , bills number 1 seed

Edited November 23 by Kelly to Allen