The Real Topic - What happens if/when the Chiefs and Bills meet again in January?

[PoundingDog]

The Bills missed Milano, Kincaid, Coleman, Carter, Smoot. The Chiefs missed Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Charles Omenihu, Jaylen Watson, Harrison Butker.

 

For the Bills, Allen played probably his best game overall this year, and based on his Chiefs game history, I have reason to believe he can play at about the same level. Cook and the running backs ran into a wall last Sunday. I'm sure the Bills will look at that and revamp the running game considerably. I can't believe they could do worse than what they did overall. Receiving wise, how much better can Kincaid & Coleman do topping what Knox and Samuel provided in their place last Sunday? Honestly I don't see much there.

 

For the Chiefs, Mahomes is about as steady as they come for playing at a high level. Rashee Rice is done for the year. I do see Hollywood Brown will do more and better than Worthy - the main reason Worthy opened a lot first half was because the Bills put a lot of attention to Kelce and Hopkins. A healthy Brown should do better but his health, coming of IR without much pre-season/live game action with Mahomes, is something to wonder about. Pacheco will certainly do better than Hunt and Hunt himself actually did pretty well last Sunday, just that Reid kind of got away from the running game a bit like he usually do. This is an area that worries me some because while the Chiefs do not run the ball like Ravens, but they can do damage and potentially derail the Bills defensive plan. If we expect Andy Reid to adjust his game plan, this is certainly where he's looking into.

 

Defensively Rousseau is proven to be a huge problem for the Chiefs - in fact the Chiefs O-line tackles have been exposed for awhile now. This where I don't see the Chiefs improving their passing attack too much because there is really no additional help coming in that area, and the Bills with Rousseau, Von, Epenesa, Smoot are probably good enough to harass Mahomes like they did last Sunday. Milano coming back could be huge for the Bills if he's healthy and close to a level where he was before. We don't know where Carter's level is, but if he's continuing his upward trend like he was before he hurt his wrist, he could be a positive contributer helping to nullify what the Chiefs might do on the ground with Pacheco.

 

The Chiefs defensive will get a small boost when Omenihu comes back. He had 7 sacks last year. But Jaylen Watson is key to their secondary. If he's out for the year, they would have just one quality CB in McDuffie. Lasy Sunday game showed when they moved him to cover Cooper, Shakir took off. Chris Jones looked to me slowed down some, maybe the age (30) and the high snap counts (82% as a DT!!!) is catching up to him. 

 

Injuries can certainly change things from now to the playoff. But overall, what we saw last Sunday is pretty much both team playing at a high level while missing important pieces. I don't see it change much when they meet again even when all the missing pieces are back. Last Sunday, the Bills executed a little better and the coaching decisions showed quite a bit improvement from what they did against the Chiefs in the past. To finally overcome the Chiefs in the playoff, they probably don't need to overthink and make drastic changes. 

 

 

 

 

[T.E.]

I feel better about it than in years past. We had a bunch of injuries on Sunday, Allen was far from perfect as a passer, and we still won by two scores.

[Success]

I watched the replay. The game was so close; for some reason, when I was watching it, I felt like we were in control the whole time  In a way we were, but there were a lot of "ifs," and certainly if a couple of plays had gone differently, it would have likely been a different outcome. If Mahomes led Worthy on the long pass, if Hopkins had hauled in that long pass in the 4th (he thought he did), if Shakir loses the ball on that 3rd and long in the 4th like most receivers would on a hit like that.

 

These are 2 evenly matched teams.  Like you said - they'll get key guys back, as will we.  

 

I'd like our chances just based on the law of averages.  But there is a psychological factor which of course makes me uneasy - the "Bills always win the regular, then lose to them in the playoffs" narrative. That will probably be on every player's mind in January, and every fan's.  

 

On a more positive note, I don't believe they "switch it on" in the playoffs. They're just a very good team who has gotten more postseason breaks than we have to this point.  

 

I just wrote a lot, but didn't say much. I think it will be a game like Sunday - pretty close the whole time, and whichever QB makes the big play in the 4th will see his team win.

 

[Big Turk]

If we are mostly healthy on D I think we win similar to the way we did this game.

 

 

[Comebackkid]

its an interesting thought because there are so many people that say you cant beat a team twice in the same year...

you can but its way harder.    

for example caroline who sux....played NO and lost 42-10

played them again this year and won 23-22

 

we had beat the giants in the reg season...lost in the superbowl.

 

i dont think u can rely on doing the same things...that got you this win or your going to lose. 

 

 

[PoundingDog]

On the Chris Jones snap counts. That is a "wow"to me. Let's hope the Chiefs continue to play tight games down the stretch and they need him to exert the most in the 4th quarter every game. They probably count on the first round bye to rest key and old guys like him and Kelce.

 

Edited Thursday at 03:53 AM by PoundingDog

[gonzo1105]

I agree that Jaylen Watson is key for them. Spags loves that pressure D and in the past has had guys to hold up on the back end. With him out blitzing it leaves them exposed. 
 

I suspect no matter who is injured or back it will be a dogfight like it always is. 

[Scott7975]

I think if the Bills see the Chiefs in the playoffs that the Bills will win that game too. I don't think the Chiefs are going to 3 peat this season. They just are not the same team. Every game they play is close. Someone is going to knock them out.

[JimmyNoodles]

The Bills rush defense is poor. The Chiefs had 17 rushing attempts this game. I would expect that number to double if we meet again.  Going to hard to beat teams that can run and control the clock. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

39 minutes ago, Success said:

I watched the replay. The game was so close; for some reason, when I was watching it, I felt like we were in control the whole time  In a way we were, but there were a lot of "ifs," and certainly if a couple of plays had gone differently, it would have likely been a different outcome. If Mahomes led Worthy on the long pass, if Hopkins had hauled in that long pass in the 4th (he thought he did), if Shakir loses the ball on that 3rd and long in the 4th like most receivers would on a hit like that.

 

These are 2 evenly matched teams.  Like you said - they'll get key guys back, as will we.  

 

I'd like our chances just based on the law of averages.  But there is a psychological factor which of course makes me uneasy - the "Bills always win the regular, then lose to them in the playoffs" narrative. That will probably be on every player's mind in January, and every fan's.  

 

On a more positive note, I don't believe they "switch it on" in the playoffs. They're just a very good team who has gotten more postseason breaks than we have to this point.  

 

I just wrote a lot, but didn't say much. I think it will be a game like Sunday - pretty close the whole time, and whichever QB makes the big play in the 4th will see his team win.

 

agreed. That’s how every game with them has been, regular season and playoffs. They all come down to 1 or 2 plays.

 

that’s why this media narrative of “can the bills beat KC in the playoffs?” Is bogus. There’s really nothing to do other than execute a play or two better near the end of the game.

 

[NickelCity]

It depends on the health of the teams. Then it depends on the Bills playing really well, with minimal mistakes. 

[PromoTheRobot]

We made them mad. So expect the Chiefs to try extra hard.

[Billznut]

51 minutes ago, T.E. said:

I feel better about it than in years past. We had a bunch of injuries on Sunday, Allen was far from perfect as a passer, and we still won by two scores.

Agreed. Buffalo couldn’t run the ball well, other than Allen. Allen also missed some easy passes he usually doesn’t. To me, the offense brought maybe their ‘B’ game Sunday and we still scored 30 and won by 9. If the Bills bring their offensive ‘A’ game in the playoffs, assuming injured offensive players (Coleman, Kincaid and Brown) all will be back for that one, I don’t see how the Chiefs will be able to keep up with us. 

[Boatdrinks]

45 minutes ago, Comebackkid said:

its an interesting thought because there are so many people that say you cant beat a team twice in the same year...

you can but its way harder.    

for example caroline who sux....played NO and lost 42-10

played them again this year and won 23-22

 

we had beat the giants in the reg season...lost in the superbowl.

 

i dont think u can rely on doing the same things...that got you this win or your going to lose. 

 

 

Well, the division game you can throw out right off the bat. Those teams play twice every year and know everything about each other. Yeah , I know the Bills and Chiefs have played a lot in recent years but it’s still not the same as a division opponent. Also, any NFL game that is won so handily is almost certain to be much closer in the rematch. There can be gaps in talent, but no team is generally four touchdowns better than the next. As for the Bills / Chiefs contest likely to come in January expect more of the same. A close game where mistakes are magnified and neither team is able to pull too far ahead of the other. Then it comes down to the last 5-10 minutes; who makes the biggest plays in that span, and which QB has the ball with enough time to score while leaving very little time for the other guy. 

[90sBills]

30 minutes ago, JimmyNoodles said:

The Bills rush defense is poor. The Chiefs had 17 rushing attempts this game. I would expect that number to double if we meet again.  Going to hard to beat teams that can run and control the clock. 

This was what stood out to me. They played this game differently than their recent games. Didn’t stick with the run game to control t.o.p. Tried to force feed Worthy. If they meet again in the playoffs I bet KC’s gameplan would be completely different. More run base with Pacheco/Hunt and play action off that. Bills gotta adjust. 

[Charles Romes]

we were also missing our starting RT and best run blocker. If they were missing a starting tackle and had to play the guy Denver destroyed it would have been three scores. Bills have the edge in depth, which will be even more important in January. 

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

This was what stood out to me. They played this game differently than their recent games. Didn’t stick with the run game to control t.o.p. Tried to force feed Worthy. If they meet again in the playoffs I bet KC’s gameplan would be completely different. More run base with Pacheco/Hunt and play action off that. Bills gotta adjust. 

they didnt really try to force feed him..they did..   mahomes throws just a lil smarter ball and worthy gets  a td and bills get burned big time.   plus after that 

i guess they decided to put their toy back in the closet.    for as many times the D got burned by worthy on that drive they didnt pay much attention to him on the deep shot.  

so now u have pacheco and worthy and they just brought in Tyquan Thornton from the pats.   he may not see the field this year but

at 6'3 and 182 lbs he ran an unofficial 4.21 and an official 4.38.    he's like a 6'3 version of worthy.   so far he hasnt dont much of anything but 

who knows what they might get out of him.  

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I agree that Jaylen Watson is key for them. Spags loves that pressure D and in the past has had guys to hold up on the back end. With him out blitzing it leaves them exposed. 
 

I suspect no matter who is injured or back it will be a dogfight like it always is. 

Falling off that much missing one corner that’s not your lockdown guy is a depth issue and not an excuse imo.  Odds are pretty good you’re gonna be missing a defensive player or two of that caliber.  What gets real unlucky is when one of your super important players is one of those several guys injured or if you take a bunch of injuries in one position group 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

This was what stood out to me. They played this game differently than their recent games. Didn’t stick with the run game to control t.o.p. Tried to force feed Worthy. If they meet again in the playoffs I bet KC’s gameplan would be completely different. More run base with Pacheco/Hunt and play action off that. Bills gotta adjust. 

I still don’t get this…they threw worthy the ball when he was open and didn’t when he wasn’t.  Don’t think they trusted their third and medium passing plays you can’t really commit to the run when you’re not confident in those 

[gonzo1105]

8 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Falling off that much missing one corner that’s not your lockdown guy is a depth issue and not an excuse imo.  Odds are pretty good you’re gonna be missing a defensive player or two of that caliber.  What gets real unlucky is when one of your super important players is one of those several guys injured or if you take a bunch of injuries in one position group 

Their depth isn’t good there you’re correct. I believe I was talking to @GunnerBill about this. Veach doesn’t like giving out contracts to CBS for big money. He let Snead walk.  Watson was going to be their Snead this year and breaks his leg. Chamarri Conner was a backup mostly at safety and now he’s playing Nickle for them and McDuffie is playing outside where he is less comfortable. 

 

They are a mess there and it’s almost forcing Veach to have to pay McDuffie big money. Watson is a key guy cause he goes back outside and McDuffje can go back in the slot when healthy. 
 

Spags does a good job hiding their deficiencies but when your playing an elite QB that can throw and elude pass rush they are going to get caught a lot more often if their pass rush isn’t getting home