McDermott among the most aggressive 4th down coaches in the NFL(2nd to Campbell)

[Big Turk]

Can we please put to bed that McD is way too conservative/ultra conservative/some version of reality that isn't true?

 

 

Edited November 20 by Big Turk

[Kelly to Allen]

There is a common misconception that ppl skeptical about McDermott are critical of him being conservative overall ...This is not true. 

 

I and others worry about McDermott with the psychology of a playoff elimination game and McDermott getting tight in that context 

 

His defense doesn't have to necessarily be great in the playoffs. But it can't be only 6 forced punts in his last 4 elimination games bad. Ppl forget his defense was really bad vs the colts in the wildcard but Allen and Davis went alien mode and we survived in 20 until the afc championship. 

 

I need something similar to how KC defense played in the 22 playoff 

 

For context the ravens forced KC to punt 7 times in just the AFC championship 

Edited November 20 by Kelly to Allen

[GASabresIUFan]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Can we please put to bed that McD is way too conservative/ultra conservative/some version of reality that isn't true?

Don't let facts get in the way of a McD hater mantra.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

There is a common misconception that ppl skeptical about McDermott are critical of him being conservative overall ...This is not true. 

 

I and others worry about McDermott with the psychology of a playoff elimination game and McDermott getting tight in that context 

 

His defense doesn't have to necessarily be great in the playoffs. But it can't be only 6 forced punts in his last 4 elimination games bad. Ppl forget his defense was really bad vs the colts in the wildcard but Allen and Davis went alien mode and we survived in 20 until the afc championship. 

 

I need something similar to how KC defense played in the 22 playoff 

 

For context the ravens forced KC to punt 7 times in just the AFC championship 

 

That's why I think the biggest difference on defense could be Babich and him not being afraid to continue being aggressive in the playoffs where McD went more conservative in his playcalls.

Edited November 20 by Big Turk

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Can we please put to bed that McD is way too conservative/ultra conservative/some version of reality that isn't true?

 

 

 

It has been the case since 2020. The Bills have been a top 5 team in terms of 4th down aggression by the numbers since Josh broke out basically.

[Kelly to Allen]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's why I think the biggest difference on defense could be Babich and him not being afraid to continue being aggressive in the playoffs where McD went more conservative in his playcalls.

I'm thinking it won't matter as I've said repeatedly I think Allen will keep the team so far ahead it won't matter 

It's a Strawnman that critic's of McDermott thinks he's just conservative. 

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

There is a common misconception that ppl skeptical about McDermott are critical of him being conservative overall ...This is not true.  

That's not true. McDermott haters complain about McDermott being conservative, wanting to run the ball too much, and playing prevent defense ALL the time. They are wrong about those things. They make these assumptions because he is a defensive coach and that is the perception of defensive coaches.

 

All the other stuff you said about the defense not playing well in elimination games is certainly valid. That is criticism worth talking about. Injuries on the defense is a big part of it. Poor execution by the players. And yes, coaching. Those things all need to improve in the playoffs.

[Process]

This should be a surprise to no one who actually pays attention 

[Bimmer323i]

I believe it although sometimes it doesn’t feel that way cause he has chickened out on occasion punting when we prolly should have gone for it

[Kelly to Allen]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

That's not true. McDermott haters complain about McDermott being conservative, wanting to run the ball too much, and playing prevent defense ALL the time. They are wrong about those things. They make these assumptions because he is a defensive coach and that is the perception of defensive coaches.

 

All the other stuff you said about the defense not playing well in elimination games is certainly valid. That is criticism worth talking about. Injuries on the defense is a big part of it. Poor execution by the players. And yes, coaching. Those things all need to improve in the playoffs.

 

Every well thought critic of McDermott is about McDermott getting tight in critical situations and especially in the playoffs with elimination creating even more pressure. His brain literally shuts off....

 

Go look at the defensive formation vs the jets on the hail Mary. I literally thought I was on acid looking at it. It made zero sense 

 

 

I don't want to start a debate about McDermott. He's a great leader and I've forgiven him for 13 seconds. And I want him to be the bills coach for as long as Landry or bellicheat. 

 

Go Bills 

Edited November 20 by Kelly to Allen

[MJS]

12 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

Every well thought critic of McDermott is about McDermott getting tight in critical situations and especially in the playoffs with elimination creating even more pressure. His brain literally shuts off....

 

Go look at the defensive formation vs the jets on the hail Mary. I literally thought I was on acid looking at it. It made zero sense 

 

I don't want to start a debate about McDermott. He's a great leader and I've forgiven him for 13 seconds. And I want him to be the bills coach for as long as Landry or bellicheat. 

 

Go Bills 

Fans might not agree, but they were also defending the sidelines for the possibility that they would complete one and then kick a field goal. That was a possibility, despite what fans say. If the Bills went all in on the hail mary and the Jets completed an easy one and got out of bounds and kicked a field goal, fans would be moaning about that as well. It's just how it is sometimes. Cover 1 broke that play down and came to the same conclusion.

 

Anyway, we can agree to disagree. Regardless of who is to blame, they have to figure it out in the playoffs and get it done.

[Kelly to Allen]

20 minutes ago, MJS said:

Fans might not agree, but they were also defending the sidelines for the possibility that they would complete one and then kick a field goal. That was a possibility, despite what fans say. If the Bills went all in on the hail mary and the Jets completed an easy one and got out of bounds and kicked a field goal, fans would be moaning about that as well. It's just how it is sometimes. Cover 1 broke that play down and came to the same conclusion.

 

Anyway, we can agree to disagree. Regardless of who is to blame, they have to figure it out in the playoffs and get it done.

 

Then you would have dbs instead of dlineman and they would just cover the wrs ( ie just in case one breaks off a sideline route) plus you would have tons of help on the back end. My brain hurts thinking about how dumb everything was on that play 

 

But it's bizzare because why are Rousseau and epenesa not rushing lol. Those two should be rushing, and the sidelines would just be covered with actual dbs. It made zero sense 

 

There was literally like 4 guys covering nobody on the play. 

 

There's 3-4 things that not only make zero sense, but are so ridiculous that you would literally design the defense that way to actually increase the chances of completing the hail Mary. 

 

I get mad thinking about it. 

 

Like I said looking at the defensive formation is similar to an acid trip.

 

Keon Coleman is also an all American college basketball caliber talent. Why is he not back there which would be completely rational and normal football othodoxy defending a hail Mary 

Edited November 20 by Kelly to Allen

[gjv]

AT this point of the season, I would only have Tomlin ahead of McDermott as NFL coach of the year. Dan Quinn would not be far behind McDermott.

[peterpan]

We have Josh Allen.  Who do the Steelers have?  That has to factor in.

 

that chart is confusing.  I have no idea what WP stands for. But I’m surprised to see the Chiefs on the far left.

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, peterpan said:

We have Josh Allen.  Who do the Steelers have?  That has to factor in.

 

that chart is confusing.  I have no idea what WP stands for. But I’m surprised to see the Chiefs on the far left.

 

I believe WP = Win Probability, ie the gain or loss in the probability the team wins by their 4th down decisions.

Edited November 20 by Big Turk

[MJS]

37 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Then you would have dbs instead of dlineman and they would just cover the wrs ( ie just in case one breaks off a sideline route) plus you would have tons of help on the back end. My brain hurts thinking about how dumb everything was on that play 

 

But it's bizzare because why are Rousseau and epenesa not rushing lol. Those two should be rushing, and the sidelines would just be covered with actual dbs. It made zero sense 

 

There was literally like 4 guys covering nobody on the play. 

 

There's 3-4 things that not only make zero sense, but are so ridiculous that you would literally design the defense that way to actually increase the chances of completing the hail Mary. 

 

I get mad thinking about it. 

 

Like I said looking at the defensive formation is similar to an acid trip.

 

Keon Coleman is also an all American college basketball caliber talent. Why is he not back there which would be completely rational and normal football othodoxy defending a hail Mary 

Because they wanted the defensive backs covering the hail mary. I think you are reading too much into that one play. They dropped some guys toward the sidelines just in case the Jets wanted a cheap completion.

 

Coleman could have been on the field, sure. But it is pretty common for defenses to defend the hail mary with just defenders, not with offensive players.

 

Sometimes you get beat. Sometimes the other team makes a play. The play call was not a dumb as you are saying. You may not agree with it, but it doesn't mean they didn't have their reasons. They were trying to account for all the possibilities.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Can we please put to bed that McD is way too conservative/ultra conservative/some version of reality that isn't true?

 

 

 

This is good intel.  Aggressive and on the cusp of being confused is not the worst analysis of McD. 

 

(I think this is his most impressive season of decision making personally, that Houston debacle notwithstanding)

[BigDingus]

When it's 4th & short, especially on the opponent's side of the field, it almost always makes sense to go for it when Allen is your QB.

 

If it's 4th & inches, he can sneak up the middle or get a tush-push. If it's 4th & a couple yards, he can scramble long enough to find an open man or get the yards himself.

 

He's big enough to take the hit & plow over someone if necessary, and he's just fast enough that he can out run a lot of defenders, especially if they're not coming from a great angle.

 

What hurts us is going for it on 4th down where we take it out of Allen's hands (like the fake punt to Damar). And this is just speculation, but I doubt the Bills practice these types of trick plays & gadget plays nearly as much as a team like KC does. So when it comes to execute in a game, it's more likely to go wrong.

[Billsatlastin2018]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Can we please put to bed that McD is way too conservative/ultra conservative/some version of reality that isn't true?

 

 

McD has LEARNED that he has one of the greatest talents at QB in the history of the NFL! Fully trained up. In EVERY end of half/ game decision where points or victory can be assured, I want that ball in Allen’s hands!

 

100% on 4th & 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s. from the 50 in.

Punt on the 4th & 8s or above… unless the game is on the line!

There was a 4th & 8 from no man’s land early that I agreed was the correct decision. 

 

THESE decisions are not McDs Achilles Heel.

 

They are the challenges, the idiotic TOs and the not having the discussions with Josh to play the end of game slow until you need to do something. With the Mahomeses, Burrows, Jackson,the goal is to take that clock as close to zero as you possibly can… WHILE your scoring.

 

NEVER give them another shot!

 

The difference on Sunday was a 2 score game. Depending on the numbers and TOs left, Allen might have slid at the 4, if that was necessary. 
 

It’s all about strategy against your opponent’s talent.

[Malazan]

2 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

I'm thinking it won't matter as I've said repeatedly I think Allen will keep the team so far ahead it won't matter 

It's a Strawnman that critic's of McDermott thinks he's just conservative. 

 

That's not what we're discussing here. No one made the claim that only thing critics of McDermott say is that he's conservative. Seems like your own strawman.

 

Maybe you are actually new here and aren't familiar with the full breadth of discussions that have taken place over the last few years.

Edited November 20 by Malazan