Why is McD not being talked about as coach of the year?

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I believe the thinking is that McD has one of the best QB in the league who creates on his own.  Also, as another poster said, the Bills are expected to be perennially good now.  The people who vote for that stuff don't read the fine print and say "how is he managing to have such a solid D when they've moved on from last year's starting safeties, they lost their all-pro LB before the season and their MLB for an extended period, how is the O managing when they started out thin at WR and injuries made them thinner" etc etc

The perception is that McD is a solid coach but he's working with a full cupboard of player talent

 

 

You're right - but I disagree those who say McD has a "full cupboard of talent."

Beane has been good at getting solid, process guys but not as adept at finding playmakers.  And then you have to factor in injuries.  We probably don't have more injuries than other teams but it sure seems we have more injuries to key players - particularly on defense.

I think players in our D may be overrated because McD is good at coaching them to execute and play together as a unit.  Our D - and the players that compose it - wouldn't look so fine coached by a lesser HC/DC.   

 

On offense, well, McD does have the advantage of having Josh and that's undeniable.  I'm sure other coaches like Daboll, for example, fantasize about how many games they'd win if they had a unicorn for a QB.  

 

 

[TH3]

3 hours ago, Antonio said:

There is a lot of talk about JA being MVP ´cause without a lot of weapons he has the Bills sitting at 9-2 and beating the undefeated Taylor Chiefs...

 

I honestly think that McD should really be a Coach of the Year candidate, how can he not?! 
- He has the players buying into the culture.

- Suffering with a lot of injuries, the backups are well prepared to step up. 

- He might not call the defense, but its his system and trust me he is the one making the adjustments at half time with Bobby and Brady and completely dominating the 2nd half of the games. 

- A lot of good players and leaders departure this offseason and he has the Bills 9-2 when everybody thought we were rebuilding, at the end of the day, it is his team.

- Maybe not the best game manager, but you how can you not be pleased with his game decisions. He trusted Bass to kick a very difficult game winner and he delivered... the trust Allen to convert a 4th and 2 against the Chiefs and he delivered.

 

And the list goes on and on...

 

Odds for him to get it in BETUS are +2500... Mike Tomblin is the current favorite with +300 followed by Dan Campbell at +400. Is he really that far away? 

Haha....half this board was done with "Mclappy" after week 5.....

[TheWeatherMan]

3 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Haha....half this board was done with "Mclappy" after week 5.....

McD is regular season coach of the decade, that’s never been an issue.  Problem is, he sucks in the post season.  Egg against Jags, Texans meltdown, 13 seconds, Bengals embarrassment. I truly hope he proves me wrong, I’d gladly eat a years supply of crow, but until he does I’ll advocate for hope in the post season rather than rinse repeat failure. 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

First: Sean McDermott should have won coach of the year in the Damar Hamlin/blizzard year. Keeping the team together through all of that and achieving a 13-3 record was an incredible achievement, regardless of how the playoffs turned out.

As to the topic at hand: "Coach of the year", much like League MVP, has taken on a different meaning. These days, it more often than not tends to go to coaches who coached a previously bad team to a winning record. Guys who come in and resuscitate bad teams and make them good. Dan Quinn would fit the bill this year, as would Jim Harbaugh.

I don't think that SHOULD be what the award equates to, but it is what it is.

For the Bills to have the best point differential in the league since 2020 and to be as consistently good as they are, its downright criminal that McDermott has never won it. Alas, he is punished for his consistency.

 

Lions are first in point diff, Bills #2...but it's not even close.

 

Chargers aren't a "bad team", they just fall apart each year.  Not without significant talent.  Washington is pretty loaded too. 

 

Campbell should have been COTY last year (the Stefanski pick was mind numbing--he'll likely get fired after the season).  So far, Campbell should be the front runner, hands down.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Its criminal how McD is not getting COY consideration, and he has been screwed twice before too.  

 

Campbell a heavy fave over him is a joke, they are doing what was expected of them while McD and the Bills are grossly outperforming expectations and with a lot of injuries too.

 

Tomlin deserves his consideration, but what is wild is that he deserves it for a lot of the same reasons McD deserves it, yet one is +300 and the other is +2500.  More wild is McD has dealt with more adversity through injuries thus far too and is playing a tougher schedule.  

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

COTY is a regular season award. It’s voted on before the playoffs start. 

 

voters don't block out of their minds the playoff history of a HC when considering this year's COTY...

 

It's not unreasonable to expect 1-14 wins a season for the Bills.  Especially with everyone being back this weekend, this team is fairly stacked.

2 hours ago, MJS said:

They decide coach of the year before the Superbowl, don't they? I thought it was decided before the playoffs like all of the other awards.

 

see above

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Lions are first in point diff, Bills #2...but it's not even close.

 

Since 2020, the Bills are indeed number one in point differential, while the Lions are 18th.

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

Since 2020, the Bills are indeed number one in point differential, while the Lions are 18th.

 

sorry, didn't read that as cumulatively since 2020, just as highest in a year since 2020.

 

but yes, this points to pretty stacked O/D and only 1 AFCC appearance to show for it.  That' is not going to get you COTY votes.

 

this is why he doesn't win the award.

 

[benderbender]

Stefanski won twice. This award hasn’t meant what it used to and it shows. 

[RobbRiddick]

3 hours ago, teef said:

herpes.

I think McD is more the clap

[RobbRiddick]

IMO they should create a new award for most stunning turnaround and give it to Campbell.

 

When you look at the pathetic history of the Lions and how he has completely changed their fortunes, and not just in a flash in the pan one season wonder way like so many new coaches manage. He has gradually made them better and better each year since he got there. 

 

When they hired him I watched his infamous presser and thought the guy was another ra ra type who would crash and burn. To go to Detroit who hadn't won a playoff game since I was a kid and turn them into what they've become is an incredible job. Obviously a lot of credit goes to Johnson but he hired him and it's his culture

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sorry, didn't read that as cumulatively since 2020, just as highest in a year since 2020.

 

but yes, this points to pretty stacked O/D and only 1 AFCC appearance to show for it.  That' is not going to get you COTY votes.

 

this is why he doesn't win the award.

 

Nah. Last year's COTY was Kevin Stefanski. Year before that was Brian Daboll. Previous recent winners include Matt Nagy, Jason Garrett, Ron Rivera, Marvin Lewis, and Mike Smith.

AFCCG appearances have nothing to do with it.

McDermott deserves to have won one by now.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

It's because he's riding Josh's coat tails 

[BarleyNY]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

voters don't block out of their minds the playoff history of a HC when considering this year's COTY...

 

 

You think that COTY voters specifically consider playoff history? In what way? I certainly don’t see evidence of playoff success helping a HC win COTY. Andy Reid won the last two Super Bowls and is tied for 8th place with McD and LaFleur at +2500 odds. As I’ve already said, they consider expectations versus actual performance. A HC with a team that performed well in the playoffs obviously has a tougher time winning COTY. That makes it unlikely that Reid, McD, etc. will win it. But there isn’t more to it than that.

[TH3]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

McD is regular season coach of the decade, that’s never been an issue.  Problem is, he sucks in the post season.  Egg against Jags, Texans meltdown, 13 seconds, Bengals embarrassment. I truly hope he proves me wrong, I’d gladly eat a years supply of crow, but until he does I’ll advocate for hope in the post season rather than rinse repeat failure. 

Well - He is 5 and 6 in the post season - There are a handful (Belly) who might be significantly better - but 500 is actually pretty good. FFS Lamar is 2 and 6 - Andy Reid was SUB 500 in the post season until 3 years ago

 

Egg against the Jags? - That was a Jesus like miracle getting that roster to the post season - not sure how anyone can be critical of that season

 

 

[folz]

I mean, what is the criteria for these awards anymore. Heard one voter/former player say about MVP, that he indeed knocked Josh last year because Lamar had more wins (even though Josh played better, had better stats/season). So, is MVP now just the QB on the team with the best record? What a dumb way to decide the best or most valuable player. And I don't even think it should be a QB only award. 

 

And what is the criteria for Coach of the Year?...it would be nice if we knew what they (the voters) think the award actually means.

 

Is it best team turnaround?

                  2023 record      2024 (currently)

Ravens         13-4                      7-4

Lions             12-5                     9-1

Bills               11-6                      9-2

Steelers        10-7                      8-2

Broncos         8-9                      6-5

Vikings          7-10                     8-2

Comms         4-13                     7-4

 

I'd say the Lions, Bills, Steelers, and Broncos will all probably finish around 2 games better than last year. The Ravens will have a worse record than last year. With the Commanders and Vikings probably having the largest jump in number of wins.

 

Is it the coach who reclaimed a QB? Darnold in Minnesota, Wilson in Pittsburgh.

 

Is it the coach who has a rookie QB playing well? Nix in Denver, Daniels in Washington?

 

If McD gets knocked for having a great QB (Josh's play overshadows coaching job), why isn't it the same for Harbaugh with Jackson? Or really Tomlin with Wilson too. Yes, things were not good for Wilson in Denver, but he's still a Super Bowl winning QB. And even Goff has been a pro bowler and been to the Super Bowl. Not saying they are as good as Josh, but McD shouldn't have an automatic elimination because of Josh. Belichick won the award three times with Tom Brady as his QB. Harbaugh won with Lamar Jackson. Sean Payton won with Drew Brees as his QB.

 

Is it which team is outperforming pre-season expectations? Currently I'd say Minnesota leads here, then Washington, then the Steelers and Bills about even.

 

Is it who had a perceived biggest net loss in good players from the previous season. McD may have led here prior to the Cooper addition, but still up there. 

 

Is it who overcame the most adversity? Tough to answer this one without looking at every team's season and injuries, etc. But McD would be in this conversation.

 

 

Do the voters weigh in all such criteria and others? If so, then I'd eliminate Harbaugh. The Ravens will probably have a worse record than last year, may not win the division, despite having the MVP QB and adding Derrick Henry in the backfield next to Lamar.

 

If I add all of this up, then I'd say the frontrunner should be Kevin O'Connell. He ticks the most boxes. Next tier would be Dan Quinn, Sean Mcdermott, and Sean Payton (depending on which criteria you weigh more heavily), then Quinn (see below) and Tomlin (basically just got better QB play). imo. [That is provided that Minn, Wash, and Denver don't fall off as the season goes---I don't expect the other teams to fall off.]

 

 

 

As for Detroit, they were ranked #3 at the start of the season (so they were expected to be very good). And as far as their scoring, they have beat up on some bad teams (the Bills have too---some of the same teams funny enough, just not as bad).

 

Detroit's top scoring games [that leads to the large point differential. They only have one other game over 30 points (a 31-29 win vs. Minnesota)]:

vs. Seattle 42 points (Seahawks are 5-5)

vs. Dallas 47 points (Cowboys are 3-7)

vs. Tenn 52 points (Titans are 2-8)

vs. Jax 52 points (Jags are 2-9)

 

Bills have 8 games with 30+ points, Detroit has 5 games with 30+ points. They just had higher scores in those particular games.

 

Common opponents (points scored in wins):

                      Detroit            Buffalo

Seattle            42                    31

Tenn                52                   34

Jax                  52                    47

Arz                  20                    34

 

                    

 

 

Edited yesterday at 07:51 PM by folz

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Nah. Last year's COTY was Kevin Stefanski. Year before that was Brian Daboll. Previous recent winners include Matt Nagy, Jason Garrett, Ron Rivera, Marvin Lewis, and Mike Smith.

AFCCG appearances have nothing to do with it.

McDermott deserves to have won one by now.

 

I'm just reading the script!

 

Stefanski and Daboll will be the COTY's fired soonest after getting the award...Nagy was gone in 3 seasons.  Smith in 5.  Riverboat Ron won it twice!--years was still canned 4 years later.   Garret was gone after 4 years.  It's a kiss of death.

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 08:08 PM by Mr. WEO

[FireChans]

COTY is all narrative.

 

The narrative for the Bills may not have been as strong as it turns out, but taking playoff team to top 2 seed isn’t good enough.

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

COTY is all narrative.

 

The narrative for the Bills may not have been as strong as it turns out, but taking playoff team to top 2 seed isn’t good enough.

 

 

Neither is winning 3 of 4 SBs (in 5 seasons).  Reid has never been AP COTY in KC.

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

You think that COTY voters specifically consider playoff history? In what way? I certainly don’t see evidence of playoff success helping a HC win COTY. Andy Reid won the last two Super Bowls and is tied for 8th place with McD and LaFleur at +2500 odds. As I’ve already said, they consider expectations versus actual performance. A HC with a team that performed well in the playoffs obviously has a tougher time winning COTY. That makes it unlikely that Reid, McD, etc. will win it. But there isn’t more to it than that.

 

Playoff success may not make you a COTY, but spectacular playoff exits will keep you off it for sure.  It's a bias that sticks with voters.

 

McD isn't exactly making lemonade out lemons, despite how some posters go on...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

He's in my top 5 candidates yet the job Dan Quinn is doing great with a rookie QB to me deserves the COY. Next is the job guy in Minnesota is doing with Sam Darnold, I also have to give Sean Peyton his due with his rookie QB. Then I look Dan Campbell and Sean McDermott as the next two. 

 

think you forgot Tomlin.  As much as I think the Steelers should have fired him a couple years back, no one expected him to be doing what he is doing and in probably the toughest division in the AFC