MVP hype for Allen

[Blank Stare]

9 minutes ago, AllenMania said:

The crazy thing with this: I went and looked at their 2023 All pro teams. 

Josh was their highest graded QB last year but still had Lamar as the first team QB.

Why am I not surprised? Never seen anyone fall over themselves as much they can to change the goal posts to avoid giving Josh his credit. Didn’t the guy sit out an equivalent of two full games this year because he was kicking the other teams ass so badly or could choose to skip the majority of the game because they didn’t need it? Only one I’ve seen even mention that is Chase Daniel. Truth is, Josh would’ve likely exceeded Lamar’s stats (except for INTs) if he had to. He didn’t, but let’s not let facts get in the way of a “good” argument for these talking heads. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Blank Stare said:

Why am I not surprised? Never seen anyone fall over themselves as much they can to change the goal posts to avoid giving Josh his credit. Didn’t the guy sit out an equivalent of two full games this year because he was kicking the other teams ass so badly or could choose to skip the majority of the game because they didn’t need it? Only one I’ve seen even mention that is Chase Daniel. Truth is, Josh would’ve likely exceeded Lamar’s stats (except for INTs) if he had to. He didn’t, but let’s not let facts get in the way of a “good” argument for these talking heads. 

you cant blame them lol PFF were the original Wrong Joshers

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Above average in this case is a bad thing because it means we faced perfect coverage more than the average offense. Looking at that chart it looks like Allen faced perfect coverage about 38% of the time.

 

Here's perfect coverage defined by PFF:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-effect-perfectly-covered-plays-nfl-offenses

 

 

I don't think it's a failing of scheme for the most part, it's more the personnel. We shake off coverage at a below average rate. But Allen manages to average out a positive outcome on those plays, which has to be unprecedented I would think.

 

More fuel to add to Allen's MVP case:

 

Allen is at the very bottom of average WR separation while Lamar is at the very top.

Allen is winning the MVP. But these stats are so dumb. Literally no one thought the Ravens had a special receiving group before the year. Zay Flowers is a good wr buts he’s a borderline 1 and doesn’t come close to the elite 1s. Bateman is superior over Cooper or Shakir? No one would ever say that. 
 

again, Allen is winning the MVP. But why I hate this award (though it is fun to debate) is how hard we work to act like their teammates aren’t good. Once we got Cooper, this became a good receiving group. 

[Ray Stonada]

Most important thing is that we’re still playing when MVP is announced

[UKBillFan]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Allen is winning the MVP. But these stats are so dumb. Literally no one thought the Ravens had a special receiving group before the year. Zay Flowers is a good wr buts he’s a borderline 1 and doesn’t come close to the elite 1s. Bateman is superior over Cooper or Shakir? No one would ever say that. 
 

again, Allen is winning the MVP. But why I hate this award (though it is fun to debate) is how hard we work to act like their teammates aren’t good. Once we got Cooper, this became a good receiving group. 

The post you quoted doesn’t refer to the quality of the receiving group but the time to throw and average separation. Ravens receivers are far more open than Bills receivers, no matter their individual quality, and this lives up to the eye test as well.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

It definitely is but Lamar got 45 out of 50 1st team all pro votes and 49 out of 50 MVP voters last year.  That's at least four voters who thought all pro and MVP were different criteria.  So, if Lamar gets say 28 first team all pro votes Allen could still win MVP.

Agreed, and in Lamar’s case last year, he got more MVP votes than 1st team All Pro.  Which is how I see it probably going for Josh this year, as I think All Pro can be more stats focused whereas there’s more to it when talking MVP.  At least that’s how I view the difference.

[julian]

20 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Most important thing is that we’re still playing when MVP is announced

Josh apologizing for not being there in person to accept his 1st MVP on a prerecorded message while he prepares for the SB.

 

This is how I envision it playing out.

[C.Biscuit97]

13 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

The post you quoted doesn’t refer to the quality of the receiving group but the time to throw and average separation. Ravens receivers are far more open than Bills receivers, no matter their individual quality, and this lives up to the eye test as well.

Good post but this is my problem with analytics in football. There are so many other factors in football that can just be measured in football like in baseball. Analytics say it is much better to pass way more than run. That doesn’t take into account than o lineman would much rather run block than pass block. Also, run blocking can wear out a d line that can significant effects later in the game. 
 

No one thought a receiving group of Flowers (best version is worse version of Diggs, good player), Bateman (never healthy) and Agalor (garbage) was anything special before the season. How would that group be in Vegas or Tennessee? This is a stat that illustrates how dangerous Lamar is and Henry. 
 

Allen is going to win the MVP but as much as nerds they, stats just don’t blindly fit in football. 
 

both Allen and Lamar have top 5 lines (the Ravens lost 2 or 3 starters this offseason as well) but both of those lines and WRs are helped tremendously by their qbs and their teams ability to run the ball.

Edited 18 hours ago by C.Biscuit97

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Good post but this is my problem with analytics in football. There are so many other factors in football that can just be measured in football like in baseball. Analytics say it is much better to pass way more than run. That doesn’t take into account than o lineman would much rather run block than pass block. Also, run blocking can wear out a d line that can significant effects later in the game. 
 

No one thought a receiving group of Flowers (best version is worse version of Diggs, good player), Bateman (never healthy) and Agalor (garbage) was anything special before the season. How would that group be in Vegas or Tennessee? This is a stat that illustrates how dangerous Lamar is and Henry. 
 

Allen is going to win the MVP but as much as nerds they, stats just don’t blindly fit in football. 

I think, if Josh does win MVP, then the last two years prove that stats don’t blindly fit football or the MVP vote. Lamar didn’t have the best underline stars in 2023 and Josh doesn’t have the best in 2024.

[Billsfanatic8989]

How often does the league MVP not make first team all pro?

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Good post but this is my problem with analytics in football. There are so many other factors in football that can just be measured in football like in baseball. Analytics say it is much better to pass way more than run. That doesn’t take into account than o lineman would much rather run block than pass block. Also, run blocking can wear out a d line that can significant effects later in the game. 
 

No one thought a receiving group of Flowers (best version is worse version of Diggs, good player), Bateman (never healthy) and Agalor (garbage) was anything special before the season. How would that group be in Vegas or Tennessee? This is a stat that illustrates how dangerous Lamar is and Henry. 
 

Allen is going to win the MVP but as much as nerds they, stats just don’t blindly fit in football. 
 

both Allen and Lamar have top 5 lines (the Ravens lost 2 or 3 starters this offseason as well) but both of those lines and WRs are helped tremendously by their qbs and their teams ability to run the ball.

Analytics were never meant to be the end all or be all.  It's just a tool you use along with human judgement and experience.  If you're a terrible 4th and short team you'd take the field goal even if the analytics say go for the first down.

 

The stats about WR separation are what they are regardless of who his pass catchers are.  He has more wide open throws so his stats will be inflated compared to the average QB.  It's a combination of scheme, teams loading up the box more often to stop Henry and Lamar in the running game, a good pass protecting o-line, and Lamar extending plays with his legs.

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Allen is winning the MVP. But these stats are so dumb. Literally no one thought the Ravens had a special receiving group before the year. Zay Flowers is a good wr buts he’s a borderline 1 and doesn’t come close to the elite 1s. Bateman is superior over Cooper or Shakir? No one would ever say that. 

 

Which group gets to run routes against 8 and 9 in the box all day? That might have something to do with it.

[Scott7975]

 

[Dr.Sack]

What are Allen’s odds of being Super Bowl 59 MVP?

[Kelly to Allen]

11 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

What are Allen’s odds of being Super Bowl 59 MVP?

He's second I think 

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

I think, if Josh does win MVP, then the last two years prove that stats don’t blindly fit football or the MVP vote. Lamar didn’t have the best underline stars in 2023 and Josh doesn’t have the best in 2024.

 

It's a combination of stats and the eye test.  There are intangibles at play as well.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Allen is winning the MVP. But these stats are so dumb. Literally no one thought the Ravens had a special receiving group before the year. Zay Flowers is a good wr buts he’s a borderline 1 and doesn’t come close to the elite 1s. Bateman is superior over Cooper or Shakir? No one would ever say that. 
 

again, Allen is winning the MVP. But why I hate this award (though it is fun to debate) is how hard we work to act like their teammates aren’t good. Once we got Cooper, this became a good receiving group. 

Cooper hardly played.  Got him week 7 and he missed three games due to injury.  Ravens have Derrick Henry who has a better mvp case than Lamar imo he just got straight up snubbed.  I’d be less upset if Henry or Barkley got it over Josh than if Lamar did 🤣

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It’s so weird you can even bet on mvp in most places cuz the voters pretty much tell you who they’re voting for on social media haha I think that’s what has swung the odds even more…even some of the never joshers are coming around 

3 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Which group gets to run routes against 8 and 9 in the box all day? That might have something to do with it.

It’s legit crazy how often Lamar is throwing to comically wide open guys from a clean pocket haha idk if there’s some kind of advanced metric for that but he’s gotta be miles above everyone else in that category if there is.  Derrick Henry is that teams mvp but Lamar seems to have gotten all the credit as far as end of season awards have gone 

Edited 12 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Stretch]

5 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

It's a combination of stats and the eye test.  There are intangibles at play as well.  

And racial bias. 😂

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

What are Allen’s odds of being Super Bowl 59 MVP?

 

Right around +700 is what I’ve seen.  With the Bills at +600 or +650

to win it all, the odds of Josh being the corresponding MVP are slightly juicier.  Given that someone else potentially could take SB MVP if the Bills win.

[Doc]

12 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Good post but this is my problem with analytics in football. There are so many other factors in football that can just be measured in football like in baseball. Analytics say it is much better to pass way more than run. That doesn’t take into account than o lineman would much rather run block than pass block. Also, run blocking can wear out a d line that can significant effects later in the game. 
 

No one thought a receiving group of Flowers (best version is worse version of Diggs, good player), Bateman (never healthy) and Agalor (garbage) was anything special before the season. How would that group be in Vegas or Tennessee? This is a stat that illustrates how dangerous Lamar is and Henry. 
 

Allen is going to win the MVP but as much as nerds they, stats just don’t blindly fit in football. 
 

both Allen and Lamar have top 5 lines (the Ravens lost 2 or 3 starters this offseason as well) but both of those lines and WRs are helped tremendously by their qbs and their teams ability to run the ball.

 

It doesn't matter what people thought before the season.  Again everyone thought the Bills' offense would be terrible because they lost Diggs and Davis.  As it turned out the offense was better than ever despite not having a 1,000 yard WR and a barely 1,000 yard RB.

Edited 6 hours ago by Doc