MVP hype for Allen

[transplantbillsfan]

One thing I'd love to see some smart analysts like Orlovsky break down are QB audibles potentially from pass to run plays and how effectively Josh and Lamar do that.  One of the things I think we've really seen this year more than any other year is how much Josh has taken ownership of the offense and is reading the defense and changing protections and plays right up until the ball is snapped.

 

I don't watch the Ravens enough to know how much or how well Lamar does that.

 

Also, how about 4th down conversion %?  Someone brought up that Lamar and the Ravens failed on 3 4th downs in the game on Saturday against the Browns.  I don't know if I remember 3 4th downs on the year we've failed on.

 

Also, as far as their rushing, Lamar may be more explosive, but Josh is seemingly more effective when you consider Success rate.

 

For those who are unaware, success rate is (I believe I'm getting these right) gaining 40% of the yards required to gain 1st down on down 1, 60% on down 2, and 100% on downs 3 & 4.

 

The Ravens as a whole offense have a higher success rate as an offense (49.6%) than the Bills (45.2%), but that incorporates every time the Ravens have handed the ball off to Derrick Henry & Co. and every time we've handed the ball off to Cook & Co. on any down.

 

I can't find our passing success rate stats (anyone???), but according to PFR, Josh (64.7%) has a rushing success rate that is significantly higher than Lamar (56.1%), which is pretty interesting considering the rushing narratives between the 2 QBs.

 

Voters vote tomorrow.  I wish they'd bring some context to more of these conversations.

 

 

[AllenMania]

The All Pro ballots are due today and the results should be announced sometime this week.

Believe it is voted by the same 50 that vote for MVP. So, it should technically give us an indication of whether Allen is going to win it especially if he gets a lot more first place votes. At the very least, gives us an idea about the voters choice.

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, stevewin said:

I find the sports book odds weird in this case - to be relevant and accurate it would need to be based on an analysis of how each of the 50 people vote and nothing more.  Is the assumption they have some inside info on how each of the voters are voting?

Lamar seems like good value at +180 to +350 depending on the sports book.  In my experience, that's a suckers bet.  The sharps are on Allen based on the criteria with how MVP voters have voted in the past.

Edited 20 hours ago by Doc Brown

[HappyDays]

So basically Allen faces perfect coverage at an above average rate, and is the only QB that has a positive EPA in those scenarios which is absurd.

[Scott7975]

 

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

That's a load.  He's the QB with the most TDs in his first 8 seasons...and he just finished his 7th.  He is the first QB in history with 5 consecutive 40+ TD seasons. 

[Aussie Joe]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So basically Allen faces perfect coverage at an above average rate, and is the only QB that has a positive EPA in those scenarios which is absurd.

Interesting .. what makes the coverage “perfect at an above average rate?” … is this a failing of the scheme ? 

[UKBillFan]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So basically Allen faces perfect coverage at an above average rate, and is the only QB that has a positive EPA in those scenarios which is absurd.

 

Thing like this and, what was the other chart which was posted a couple of weeks ago? Throw accuracy against covered receivers, I think. And Josh was clearly the best at that too.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So basically Allen faces perfect coverage at an above average rate, and is the only QB that has a positive EPA in those scenarios which is absurd.

this is a fascinating stat. Also probably shows you how much more open the receivers get, with Lamar near the “top.” Interesting that Mahomes is also with him in terms of lowest percentages of being perfectly covered, which I think suggests that KC has better receiving talent than people think (and/or Reid schemes them open a lot).

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Interesting .. what makes the coverage “perfect at an above average rate?” … is this a failing of the scheme ? 

 

I'm assuming perfect coverage means the number of receivers covered by a defensive player? Which adds up when you see where Jackson is on the chart.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Interesting .. what makes the coverage “perfect at an above average rate?” … is this a failing of the scheme ? 

 

Above average in this case is a bad thing because it means we faced perfect coverage more than the average offense. Looking at that chart it looks like Allen faced perfect coverage about 38% of the time.

 

Here's perfect coverage defined by PFF:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-effect-perfectly-covered-plays-nfl-offenses

 

Quote

A perfectly covered play is one in which each coverage player receives either a positive or neutral PFF coverage grade. Coverage is a weak-link system, which means that even if only one player botches their assignment as the “weak link,” the probability of offensive success drastically increases. In essence, our definition of perfect coverage tries to capture whether any covering player on a play “messed up” or whether they played to expectation and made life difficult for the opposing offense.

 

 

I don't think it's a failing of scheme for the most part, it's more the personnel. We shake off coverage at a below average rate. But Allen manages to average out a positive outcome on those plays, which has to be unprecedented I would think.

 

More fuel to add to Allen's MVP case:

 

Allen is at the very bottom of average WR separation while Lamar is at the very top.

Edited 20 hours ago by HappyDays

[Doc Brown]

Interesting chart based on betting odds.  Allen not winning would be the exception to the rule

 

[stevewin]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

More fuel to add to Allen's MVP case:

 

Allen is at the very bottom of average WR separation while Lamar is at the very top.

This is a crazy one.  Email it to each of the voters!

Edited 20 hours ago by stevewin

[UKBillFan]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Interesting chart based on betting odds.  Allen not winning would be the exception to the rule

 

 

Lamar being -10000 last year just shows how everyone - Josh included - had doubts over them. In reality, he had an average at best year last year, especially when you compare it to what he's done for the Ravens this time around.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, AllenMania said:

The All Pro ballots are due today and the results should be announced sometime this week.

Believe it is voted by the same 50 that vote for MVP. So, it should technically give us an indication of whether Allen is going to win it especially if he gets a lot more first place votes. At the very least, gives us an idea about the voters choice.

If Josh gets voted in as 1st team All-Pro, I think it’s a lock that he will be MVP (if it isn’t already).  Even if Lamar is 1st team and Josh 2nd team, still think Josh’s MVP chances are good.  But I think some voters may have a different definition between All-Pro v. MVP, since Lamar’s been amazing this year too and his stats are arguably better.

[BearNorth]

PFF came out with their All-pro team.  Only Bill mentioned was Benford as 2nd team CB.

 

Josh was not graded as either First [Lamar] or Second [Burrow] QB

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

So basically Allen faces perfect coverage at an above average rate, and is the only QB that has a positive EPA in those scenarios which is absurd.

 

Having a positive EPA seems like it's probably ***** insane.

[Doc Brown]

52 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If Josh gets voted in as 1st team All-Pro, I think it’s a lock that he will be MVP (if it isn’t already).  Even if Lamar is 1st team and Josh 2nd team, still think Josh’s MVP chances are good.  But I think some voters may have a different definition between All-Pro v. MVP, since Lamar’s been amazing this year too and his stats are arguably better.

It definitely is but Lamar got 45 out of 50 1st team all pro votes and 49 out of 50 MVP voters last year.  That's at least four voters who though all pro and MVP were different criteria.  So, if Lamar gets say 28 first team all pro votes Allen could still win MVP.

[AllenMania]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

PFF came out with their All-pro team.  Only Bill mentioned was Benford as 2nd team CB.

 

Josh was not graded as either First [Lamar] or Second [Burrow] QB

 

 

The crazy thing with this: I went and looked at their 2023 All pro teams. 

Josh was their highest graded QB last year but still had Lamar as the first team QB.

This year the grade becomes a important thing.

Edited 17 hours ago by AllenMania

[zow2]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Interesting chart based on betting odds.  Allen not winning would be the exception to the rule

 

 

He's winning it.  He's the guy this season.