MVP hype for Allen

[UKBillFan]

9 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

NFL Network is jocking Lamar HARD for his UNPRECEDENTED SEASON where he went 3-0 with 10 TDs head-to-head against Allen and Burrow (who were playing LB and Safety apparently, you know, head-to-head). They even got Baldy talking about the stats with Lamar's UNPRECEDENTED yards and TD's and "you GOTTA give it to him for the stats" and "you can't give it to Allen just because he has 0 and Lamar already has 2" 

To be honest, I’ve got to the point where I feel, if they want to vote for Lamar, they should just give it to them as it just feels like, to some, Josh will just be a token vote as Lamar has two already. He deserves more than that.

[folz]

18 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

You conveniently left out his fumbles.  

 

Well, they generally don't discuss fumbles with QBs, you usually only hear about the interceptions. No one talked about Lamar's fumbles last year when they were dinging Josh for his INTs. Plus Drew wasn't a running QB, so didn't think it was that significant. But to satisfy your post:

 

Brees averaged 2.1 fumbles lost per season in his career. Over the 12-year stretch of unbelievable numbers (his prime), he averaged 2.4 fumbles lost per season.

 

So, that makes an average of 14.9 turnovers per season across his career. And 17.4 turnovers per season during his prime (which, yes, is closer to the "18 turnover average" that you noted).

 

But, just for comparison to some of the recent great QBs, here are their average turnovers (INTs + FMBs) per game-started:

 

Rodgers     0.65 TOs/game started

Brady         0.78     "            "

Mahomes  0.78     "            "

Jackson     0.79     "            "

Burrow       0.88     "            "

Brees          1.00     "            "

Allen           1.00     "            "

Manning     1.01      "            "

Favre          1.68 (added Brett for comparison since he's considered the most INT-prone QB)

 

And again, that is not weighing in number of passing attempts per game. Obviously Lamar's total is low due to the fact that he throws the ball a lot less than all of the other guys on the list. And it makes Rodgers' TO numbers even more impressive since he is more of a gunslinger-type QB like Manning, Brees, Allen, and Favre. And let's face it, Rodgers, Brady, and Mahomes have been the best ever at limiting TOs while still having unbelievable stats. Is it that Brees was so bad with turnovers (in comparison to his stats)? Or is it just because you're comparing him to a few unicorns. And we'll see if Mahomes can even maintain that pace. His interceptions have gone up significantly the last 4 years, while his overall stats have been down for the last two years. Over the last 4 years Mahomes has averaged 14.25 turnovers/season. Not that different from Brees' 14.9 per season career average. Peyton Manning averaged 15.76 turnovers per season. Josh is currently averaging 15.70 turnovers per season.

 

 

[UKBillFan]

I shouldn’t read articles online as I now think Lamar’s got it. And if Josh gets it it’s only because of voter fatigue.

[Process]

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

I shouldn’t read articles online as I now think Lamar’s got it. And if Josh gets it it’s only because of voter fatigue.

Just wait until after we beat them in the divisional round. Then they'll have nothing to say. 

 

To be honest though I am surprised Allen is as big of a favorite as he is. I think there will be a lot of votes for Lamar. 

 

Edited yesterday at 01:40 AM by Process

[Kelly to Allen]

I remember when we drafted Allen. I wasn't hoping for anything crazy. I just wanted a long term starter and maybe something close to Jeff hostetler or McNair. 

 

What he has done with where this franchise was is almost unreal. The man already has the most tds in NFL history in his first 8 years and hadn't even played his 8th season yet 

 

He just had a year where he changed his game slightly to some more West coast concepts and had the least amount of negative plays in NFL history for a QB with 450 plus attempts. I don't even know what to say 

 

I really hope this playoff is his coronation because if it is, it will probably be a moment I don't think any of us fans thought could ever be possible. He obviously has to defeat the great mahomes, but I know we all believe in him and the team to get it done. 

 

 

[zow2]

17 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

To be honest, I’ve got to the point where I feel, if they want to vote for Lamar, they should just give it to them as it just feels like, to some, Josh will just be a token vote as Lamar has two already. He deserves more than that.

 

Don't be concerned.  Josh is getting it and it's not a token vote due to Lamar fatigue.  He earned it.  But it has been mentioned that if Josh already had 2 MVPs and this season Lamar had the better record, the MVP would like go to Lamar.  I'm fine with that.  Lamar has had a great season and like Burrow, he has played hard through the end of the season and racked up stats due to many more offensive plays/snaps.  Josh doesn't get penalized for blowing teams out and sitting 4th qtrs.

 

They have a segment today on The Facility, "What would an MVP mean for Josh Allen".  They are jocking him today.  There's no Lamar talk.

 

 

[stevewin]

22 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

Josh’s odds went up in his favor after the Ravens game. Josh will win easy. 
 

5 Sportsbooks listed here
 

 

BetMGM -250

 

Draftkings -500

 

Caesar’s -400

 

Fanduel -470

 

Bet rivers -250

I find the sports book odds weird in this case - to be relevant and accurate it would need to be based on an analysis of how each of the 50 people vote and nothing more.  Is the assumption they have some inside info on how each of the voters are voting?

Edited 12 hours ago by stevewin

[GoBills808]

54 minutes ago, stevewin said:

I find the sports book odds weird in this case - to be relevant and accurate it would need to be based on an analysis of how each of the 50 people vote and nothing more.  Is the assumption they have some inside info on how each of the voters are voting?

to be relevant and accurate the odds just need to reflect how a reasonable majority of the betting public feels at a given moment

 

doesn't necessarily have to align w how the mvp guys actually vote

[stevewin]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

to be relevant and accurate the odds just need to reflect how a reasonable majority of the betting public feels at a given moment

 

doesn't necessarily have to align w how the mvp guys actually vote

So then it is not relevant at all as a barometer to whether Josh will get MVP

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, stevewin said:

So then it is not relevant at all as a barometer to whether Josh will get MVP

no more or less relevant than a team -450 will win that particular game for example

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Vegas is saying it’s Allen’s. I trust Vegas.

[strive_for_five_guy]

20 minutes ago, stevewin said:

So then it is not relevant at all as a barometer to whether Josh will get MVP

I’d say it depends how much you think the betting public’s opinion lines up with the voters’ opinions.  If one guy puts a ton money on a player (say $1M) to win an award, the house may lower that person’s odds to lessen their liability on that end, and will want to attract money on the other players.  The sports books are there to make money, so they want as much diversified action as they can get so that they’re guaranteed to win via the juice embedded in the odds they’re offering.  There should be some relevancy between the odds and who wins each award, but there’s no guarantee.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

It seems perfect for Allen to be named MVP and Lamar Offensive Player of the Year.

[stevewin]

24 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’d say it depends how much you think the betting public’s opinion lines up with the voters’ opinions.  If one guy puts a ton money on a player (say $1M) to win an award, the house may lower that person’s odds to lessen their liability on that end, and will want to attract money on the other players.  The sports books are there to make money, so they want as much diversified action as they can get so that they’re guaranteed to win via the juice embedded in the odds they’re offering.  There should be some relevancy between the odds and who wins each award, but there’s no guarantee.

OK - I guess my feeling is that in this case there is such a small and specific set of voters I wouldn't necessarily expect the distribution of their votes to follow public opinion

[Boatdrinks]

I still believe Allen will win MVP by a solid margin. 

[BillytheKid]

54 minutes ago, stevewin said:

So then it is not relevant at all as a barometer to whether Josh will get MVP

It is actually very relevant. I do this stuff for a living.

 

Nobody that has been favored by as much as Josh is, after the last game of the regular season has ever not got the award. 
 

Josh is getting the MVP. 
 

Also most voters don’t like to give a guy a 3rd MVP if he hasn’t won a championship. 
 

No player in the NBA has ever won a 3rd MVP without winning a championship first.

 

The NFL has never had a player get a 3rd MVP without winning a championship first.

 

Johnny Unitas did win 3 MVP’s before first winning a Super Bowl but he won the NFL championship before they called it the Super Bowl. 
 

So if Lamar won it, he would be the first player in history in either the NBA or NFL to win a 3rd MVP without ever winning a Championship..

[Alphadawg7]

At this point, it would not at all surprise me if Lamar won it.  But I still come back to the fact that because this is the first year in 5 years I did not put a preseason bet on Allen winning MVP (was going to, just was getting ready for 2nd baby and prepping for a move and totally forgot)...so this will now be the year that he wins it.  So when he does, you know who to thank haha

[strive_for_five_guy]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

At this point, it would not at all surprise me if Lamar won it.  But I still come back to the fact that because this is the first year in 5 years I did not put a preseason bet on Allen winning MVP (was going to, just was getting ready for 2nd baby and prepping for a move and totally forgot)...so this will now be the year that he wins it.  So when he does, you know who to thank haha

You are the Ja‘Marcus Ingram to our Sam Martin punt.

[Scott7975]

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

44 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

My favorite that game was Josh running full speed to the left, and hitting Cook in stride as he was running to the right.  He makes so many unbelievable throws.