MVP hype for Allen

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We are forgetting that Allen threw 18 picks last year and lead the league in total turn overs.

 

Jackson even has less turnovers than Allen this year.

 

Love Allen, hope he gets it, and Jackson has more help, but LJ should be the front runner. 

 

Josh has fewer turnovers this year. All of those "Lamar is winning in every category" posts floating around the internet are leaving out fumbles and sacks. 

[Kelly to Allen]

Tom Brady total turnovers in his first 6 years starting 

95

Tom Brady ints first 6 years starting 78

 

Josh Allen total turnovers in his first 6 years starting 102

Josh Allen ints first 6 years starting 78 

 

Josh Allen has the third LEAST amount of turnovers in his first ten playoff games. Only mahomes and Brady have been better 

 

Josh Allen has the lowest int% in NFL playoff history. Its 1st or 2nd lowest. I can't remember 

 

Josh Allen in 2024:was 3 games away for most consecutive games without an int...

 

Josh Allen in 2024 had the lowest negative plays ever for a QB with 450 pass attempts 

 

Ints, fumbles and sacks

 

 

Can we please for the love of all that is Holy stop this fake narrative that is actually the opposite. Please 🙏 I'm begging someone in the media to post this. It's making me go crazy lol

Edited Wednesday at 04:28 PM by Kelly to Allen

[BeastMaster]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We are forgetting that Allen threw 18 picks last year and lead the league in total turn overs.

 

Jackson even has less turnovers than Allen this year.

 

Love Allen, hope he gets it, and Jackson has more help, but LJ should be the front runner. 

This is actually incorrect 

 

Less INT's, but more fumbles and fumbles lost. He has one more total turnover 

[Doc]

Just now, BeastMaster said:

This is actually incorrect 

 

Less INT's, but more fumbles and fumbles lost. He has one more total turnover 

 

And I recall that at least 2 of Josh's INTs were the fault of the WR.  Not sure about Lamar.

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

No Josh Allen didn't lead the NFL in turnovers 

 

This is true.  Sam Howell did that with 23 to Allen's 22, but he was in his first season of playing, and that's kind of expected of a QB in his first playing year.

 

There is still "narrative" at play though.  Allen had 22 (2nd)  Hurts had 20 (3rd), Tua had 19 (4), Mahomes had 17 (5)

Those are still A Lot of turnovers, but I don't hear the narrative about Hurts or Tua "way too many turnovers, turnover machine" as we've heard about Josh.

[Stretch]

56 minutes ago, Einstein said:

What I find interesting is that the Ravens go run heavy when they are losing.

In other words, they put the game in Henry's hands... instead of Lamar.


 

Interesting.  Is that like a one game anomaly, or has it been a greater sample size?  Cause the passing % was going up until -7, strange that it is so much lower at -14.

[Beck Water]

16 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Josh has fewer turnovers this year. All of those "Lamar is winning in every category" posts floating around the internet are leaving out fumbles and sacks. 

 

And where did this deification of turnover numbers come from? 

Yeah, we all get it, turnovers are bad.  Turnover ratio is very predictive of W/L

 

But there is a risk/reward ratio there.  We all remember 2015 when Taylor had a fantastic season with only 6 INTs.  Well, we also remember how that was a frustrating number for fans because Taylor simply wouldn't throw with anticipation; he was risk-averse to the point of being paralyzed as a passer.

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

This is true.  Sam Howell did that with 23 to Allen's 22, but he was in his first season of playing, and that's kind of expected of a QB in his first playing year.

 

There is still "narrative" at play though.  Allen had 22 (2nd)  Hurts had 20 (3rd), Tua had 19 (4), Mahomes had 17 (5)

Those are still A Lot of turnovers, but I don't hear the narrative about Hurts or Tua "way too many turnovers, turnover machine" as we've heard about Josh.

 

Yup.  Because people can't let go of first impressions.

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is true.  Sam Howell did that with 23 to Allen's 22, but he was in his first season of playing, and that's kind of expected of a QB in his first playing year.

 

There is still "narrative" at play though.  Allen had 22 (2nd)  Hurts had 20 (3rd), Tua had 19 (4), Mahomes had 17 (5)

Those are still A Lot of turnovers, but I don't hear the narrative about Hurts or Tua "way too many turnovers, turnover machine" as we've heard about Josh.

 

 

There are too many other knocks against Tua that are more pressing...

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, Stretch said:

Interesting.  Is that like a one game anomaly, or has it been a greater sample size?  Cause the passing % was going up until -7, strange that it is so much lower at -14.

 

Down by 7 could simply mean that the other team got the ball first.

 

Down by 14 means you’re whole team is playing poorly and you need to reset.

 

The Ravens reset by running. The rest of the league resets by passing.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Wouldn’t be the worst thing if Lamar wins it and then we host them in the playoffs with a point to prove.  As opposed to the other way around…

 

Winner won't be announced until after the conference championship game though so that is not a possibility. 

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

There are too many other knocks against Tua that are more pressing...

 

"Knocks against" Tua I see what you did there!

[VW82]

On 12/29/2024 at 8:54 PM, HappyDays said:

 

No, I mean what I said - less than elite. As in he has the best EPA in the NFL and does not have such a ridiculously good supporting cast that we should wonder if the EPA is inflated by other factors. I think it's more than fair to agree that his EPA actually represents his own value to the team. And in fact my opinion is that his supporting cast deflates his EPA slightly, but if you don't agree with that it's fine, it's not overly relevant to this conversation.

 

So I again will affirm that Allen has the best statistical case in the NFL. Do I think MVP voters actually look at EPA? Probably not for most of them. I'm just talking about the actual definition of MVP and why I think Allen fits that definition.

 

Ok well when this discussion first started, it was "weakest set of weapons compared to any other QB in the conversation" and now it's "less than elite" so just wanted to clarify. I agree he has a much weaker WR group than Burrow, but Josh has a better OL, RBs, and TEs. Josh also has a better defense which is important if we're counting wins. Lamar has better RB, but the OL, WR, and TE are debateable. I'd lean Bills there though Ravens probably have a healthy advantage in terms of WR top end talent (but not depth).  

 

Josh's EPA per play is 0.33 vs. Lamar at 0.32. It's pretty close. Lamar leads the league in TD%, Y/A, Passer Rating, QB rushing yards, QBR, ANY/A, 538ELO,...they're both well back of Burrow in WPA.

 

I think Josh will win it, but it'll be as much narrative as anything else. It's "his turn," he's made as many or more best-player-in-the-league plays this season as anyone, and we have more wins than Ravens to your earlier point. I just don't think he's the favourite in terms of stats alone, and I don't buy that his offensive teammates just aren't as good, so we can agree to disagree there.  

 

Edited Wednesday at 06:24 PM by VW82

[DapperCam]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We are forgetting that Allen threw 18 picks last year and lead the league in total turn overs.

 

Jackson even has less turnovers than Allen this year.

 

Love Allen, hope he gets it, and Jackson has more help, but LJ should be the front runner. 

Jackson has more turnovers than Allen this year.

 

Jackson has one more turnover (actually way more fumbles but most were recovered), and two more TDs. In the span of a season their stats are basically a wash unless you really care about yards which seems silly because the Ravens and Bills are basically tied in offensive metrics like points per game.

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Ok well when this discussion first started, it was "weakest set of weapons compared to any other QB in the conversation" and now it's "less than elite" so just wanted to clarify. I agree he has a much weaker WR group than Burrow, but Josh has a better OL, RBs, and TEs. Josh also has a better defense which is important if we're counting wins. Lamar has better RB, but the OL, WR, and TE are debateable. I'd lean Bills there though Ravens probably have a healthy advantage in terms of WR top end talent (but not depth).  

 

Josh's EPA per play is 0.33 vs. Lamar at 0.32. It's pretty close. Lamar leads the league in TD%, Y/A, Passer Rating, QB rushing yards, QBR, ANY/A, 538ELO,...they're both well back of Burrow in WPA.

 

I think Josh will win it, but it'll be as much narrative as anything else. It's "his turn," he's made as many or more best-player-in-the-league plays this season than anyone, and we have more wins than Ravens to your earlier point. I just don't think he's the favourite in terms of stats alone, and I don't buy that his offensive teammates just aren't as good, so we can agree to disagree there. 

 

Gesicki has almost 150 more yards than Kincaid and the same number of TDs.  And their RB Brown has (slightly) more yards rushing and receiving but 6 fewer TDs.

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I don't buy that his offensive teammates just aren't as good

 

I only see that take on here. Every analyst I've seen discuss the MVP race has conceded that Allen doesn't have the same caliber of supporting cast.

 

By the way TE is not debatable. Look at Baltimore's roster again. I'll agree we have the better OL. Offensive coaching I'll call a wash because it's too hard to separate the coaching from the QB play on both sides. Every other measure of supporting cast goes to Baltimore - RB, TE, WR. I am certain almost every GM in the league would agree with me. Lamar is responsible for 68% of his offense's production. Allen is responsible for 80% of his.

 

It's two incredible MVP type performances, there are just too many factors going slightly in Allen's direction to not call him the clear winner.

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Gesicki has almost 150 more yards than Kincaid and the same number of TDs.  And their RB Brown has (slightly) more yards rushing and receiving but 6 fewer TDs.

 

And Cook has more explosive plays, rushing yards per game, and much better Y/A (5.0 vs. 4.3).

 

The strength of our RB and TE rooms are the depth. Kincaid goes down and there's basically no drop off to Knox. Ty Johnson has been one of the best 3rd down RBs in the league.

Edited Wednesday at 06:33 PM by VW82

[Ya Digg?]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Gesicki has almost 150 more yards than Kincaid and the same number of TDs.  And their RB Brown has (slightly) more yards rushing and receiving but 6 fewer TDs.

This MVP has taken so many weird turns. We have now reached the point where people feel the need to make sure to downgrade as many Bills as possible

[VW82]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I only see that take on here. Every analyst I've seen discuss the MVP race has conceded that Allen doesn't have the same caliber of supporting cast.

 

By the way TE is not debatable. Look at Baltimore's roster again. I'll agree we have the better OL. Offensive coaching I'll call a wash because it's too hard to separate the coaching from the QB play on both sides. Every other measure of supporting cast goes to Baltimore - RB, TE, WR. I am certain almost every GM in the league would agree with me. Lamar is responsible for 68% of his offense's production. Allen is responsible for 80% of his.

 

It's two incredible MVP type performances, there are just too many factors going slightly in Allen's direction to not call him the clear winner.

 

What's this based on?  Total yards (passing + rushing) / Total TD:

 

Lamar: 4807 yrd / 43 td

Allen: 4262 yrd / 40 td 

8 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

This MVP has taken so many weird turns. We have now reached the point where people feel the need to make sure to downgrade as many Bills as possible

 

It's the Lebron phenomenon. Lebron fans will denigrate anyone, including HOFers, in order to prop up Lebron in all contexts. I fear we're doing the same with Josh. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

What's this based on?  Total yards (passing + rushing) / Total TD:

 

Lamar: 4807 yrd / 43 td

Allen: 4262 yrd / 40 td 

 

Fewer turnovers.  Fewer sacks.  And again not even a 1,000 yard rusher or receiver.