MVP hype for Allen

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

I would argue that last season Josh had the help of another superstar being Steph Diggs, also that Josh's turnovers could count against him.  

This season Josh has the wins, eliminated the turnovers and does not have a superstar like Derrick Henry to help.  Josh all the way if the voters really think about it.  

 

Diggs wasn't very super-star-like last season, after the first 6 games or so.  

What kept Josh from consideration last season was really all the turnovers.  

[GolfandBills]

10 minutes ago, Saint Doug said:

There’s only one thing Allen has to do to win the MVP. He needs to win the Super Bowl. Otherwise, the other guy will win. It’s that simple. 

[Beck Water]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

The mvp race with Josh is fun at all, only part that sucks is both fan bases just ripping on the other Qb.

 

Lamar and Josh are both playing out of their minds . I get pumping up our guy to win, but I don't see the need to rip on the other elite QB to try to make the point

 

I don't hear a lot of ripping on Lamar, but maybe I'm just not listening.

 

This guy at SI is ripping on Spencer Brown as taking a "thinly veiled shot" at Lamar, though.  I don't see or hear a "shot".  
https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/bills-spencer-brown-takes-shot-baltimore-ravens-lamar-jackson

I think Spencer Brown's point is that last season, Josh did have a lot of stats over Lamar - not "every", OK, but passing yards, passing TDs, 1st downs, 4 Q comebacks, game winning drives, rushing TDs, rushing 1st downs.  Jackson had a higher completion percentage, higher pass Y/A, and more rushing yards and yards/attempt (also more fumbles). 

Then people were making the point to justify Lamar as MVP "well, it's not just about the stats, it's about what he means to the team's success".  So now some of the same people are looking at what Josh Allen means to the Bills success with most of the pundits predicting the Bills have no talent left and wouldn't even make the playoffs or win the division (and also cleaning up the INTs), and those same people are saying "oh, Lamar should win it because he has better stats, more passing yards, more passing TDs".

 

That's Brown's point.

18 minutes ago, Saint Doug said:

There’s only one thing Allen has to do to win the MVP. He needs to win the Super Bowl. Otherwise, the other guy will win. It’s that simple. 

 

Tell us you don't understand how the MVP selection process works, without telling us that you don't understand how the MVP selection process works.

[rajinka]

57 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

I would argue that last season Josh had the help of another superstar being Steph Diggs, also that Josh's turnovers could count against him.  

This season Josh has the wins, eliminated the turnovers and does not have a superstar like Derrick Henry to help.  Josh all the way if the voters really think about it.  

Yeah I honestly didn't think he deserved it last year. 

[jethro_tull]

26 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

I know the MVP is essentially a stats award, but it’s not completely a stats award. You can’t have the MVP of the league be on the 14th best team in the league, your stats have to contribute to the team consistently winning 

stats are part of it but are so situational and not with context.  wins are much more important as well as the quality of help on the rest of the team.  Josh has the wins and does not have another superstar on the offense helping the team win. 

[Logic]

I've been thinking way too much about the MVP race. I CARE way too much about the MVP race. I'm not one of those "I don't give a damn if Josh wins or not, it's all about the Lombardi" guys. I want to see Josh named MVP because he deserves it, because it would validate him undeniably as an all-time great, and because it would burnish his eventual case for the Hall of Fame.

That said...

Two things bother me (which have probably already been more clearly stated by others):

1. The criteria suddenly seems to have changed. For about a decade now, the MVP award has generally been given to the best performing quarterback from one of the top two seeds in either conference. Last year was a great example, with Lamar winning largely because the Ravens were the top seed. His statistics were very ordinary and certainly didn't scream "MVP". NOW all of the sudden, out of nowhere, people are disregarding this precedent and suggesting that the QB of the three-seeded team (with two more losses on its resume) should win solely because of superior statistics, when "superior statistics" hasn't been enough to overcome the "wins" criteria of previous years. Given the way in which the goalposts have been moved on Josh Allen again and again throughout his career, it is hard not to take this a little personally and to wonder if this same "shift" would be happening if it was any other player leading the MVP voting.

2. People consider raw statistics way too much without weighing the context that surrounds them. Specifically, Josh Allen has played 100 less snaps than Lamar Jackson. He's also going to sit next week while Lamar racks up more stats against a bad Browns team. I'm already pre-emptively annoyed at all of the "This seals MVP for Lamar!" stuff I'm gonna hear next week as Lamar plays and Josh sits. But WHY is Lamar playing while Josh sits? That should matter to the outcome of the MVP race. Further, the context of the players Josh Allen has surrounding him and the expectations this Bills team had (or didn't have), vs the players Lamar has surrounding him and the expectations his Ravens team had.

That's it for me. Those are, as best I can sum them up, the two things that make me feel like Josh Allen deserves to win it over Lamar Jackson this year.

If I look sheerly at their play this season and at the numbers themselves, there is no particularly valid argument that Lamar ISN'T a valid and deserving MVP candidate. But deciding, out of nowhere, to change the rules for deciding the award, to suddenly ignore context, surrounding talent, expectations, win totals, precedent, etc...It feels unfair, and it feels lazy and sloppy, and I don't like it.

TL;DR: The sudden change in MVP criteria sucks. Josh for MVP.

Edited December 30, 2024 by Logic

[Mat68]

You cant win the MVP when you have a running back leading your Conference in rushing yards with over 1800.  Henry is a hall of famer having an all time season.  Jackson is a great player.  His stats have inflated due to defenses accounting for Henry.  I think Allen wins.  Same people that voted last season vote again this season.  Allen has done the most with less and has Buffalo playing its best football since the K gun in 1990. 

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

His stats are MVP worthy. It's not his fault his defense blows.

A big reason he has such huge volume stats is because he has to continue to throw his team back into the game.

 

The two Bills games that come to mind where that happened were the Lions game and Rams game. Imagine if Allen had a season of stats like that.

[finn]

I think Allen has it wrapped up, although it won't be unanimous. Could be given to both, but the arguments about wins, Henry, and pre-season takes outweigh the stats argument, which is hardly a slam dunk anyway. Also, Allen has a far more jaw-dropping plays. Jackson's has a few, including some electrifying runs, but most are rainbow throws to wide-open receivers. 

[PrimeTime101]

14 minutes ago, finn said:

I think Allen has it wrapped up, although it won't be unanimous. Could be given to both, but the arguments about wins, Henry, and pre-season takes outweigh the stats argument, which is hardly a slam dunk anyway. Also, Allen has a far more jaw-dropping plays. Jackson's has a few, including some electrifying runs, but most are rainbow throws to wide-open receivers. 

It never is... But I feel the votes will be heavily split this year between the top 3. because of that... It could hurt Allens chances. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, jethro_tull said:

I would argue that last season Josh had the help of another superstar being Steph Diggs, also that Josh's turnovers could count against him.  

This season Josh has the wins, eliminated the turnovers and does not have a superstar like Derrick Henry to help.  Josh all the way if the voters really think about it.  

 

During the 1st half of the season, but once Brady took over as OC Diggs was mostly invisible and the best player on offense for them receiving wise was Shakir by a long shot.

[dave mcbride]

53 minutes ago, Logic said:

I've been thinking way too much about the MVP race. I CARE way too much about the MVP race. I'm not one of those "I don't give a damn if Josh wins or not, it's all about the Lombardi" guys. I want to see Josh named MVP because he deserves it, because it would validate him undeniably as an all-time great, and because it would burnish his eventual case for the Hall of Fame.

That said...

Two things bother me (which have probably already been more clearly stated by others):

1. The criteria suddenly seems to have changed. For about a decade now, the MVP award has generally been given to the best performing quarterback from one of the top two seeds in either conference. Last year was a great example, with Lamar winning largely because the Ravens were the top seed. His statistics were very ordinary and certainly didn't scream "MVP". NOW all of the sudden, out of nowhere, people are disregarding this precedent and suggesting that the QB of the three-seeded team (with two more losses on its resume) should win solely because of superior statistics, when "superior statistics" hasn't been enough to overcome the "wins" criteria of previous years. Given the way in which the goalposts have been moved on Josh Allen again and again throughout his career, it is hard not to take this a little personally and to wonder if this same "shift" would be happening if it was any other player leading the MVP voting.

2. People consider raw statistics way too much without weighing the context that surrounds them. Specifically, Josh Allen has played 100 less snaps than Lamar Jackson. He's also going to sit next week while Lamar racks up more stats against a bad Browns team. I'm already pre-emptively annoyed at all of the "This seals MVP for Lamar!" stuff I'm gonna hear next week as Lamar plays and Josh sits. But WHY is Lamar playing while Josh sits? That should matter to the outcome of the MVP race. Further, the context of the players Josh Allen has surrounding him and the expectations this Bills team had (or didn't have), vs the players Lamar has surrounding him and the expectations his Ravens team had.

That's it for me. Those are, as best I can sum them up, the two things that make me feel like Josh Allen deserves to win it over Lamar Jackson this year.

If I look sheerly at their play this season and at the numbers themselves, there is no particularly valid argument that Lamar ISN'T a valid and deserving MVP candidate. But deciding, out of nowhere, to change the rules for deciding the award, to suddenly ignore context, surrounding talent, expectations, win totals, precedent, etc...It feels unfair, and it feels lazy and sloppy, and I don't like it.

TL;DR: The sudden change in MVP criteria sucks. Josh for MVP.

People don't mention sack rate and fumbles lost enough. Jackson has been sacked at a rate of 4.95 percent, which is actually pretty good, but Allen has been sacked at a 2.82 percent rate, which is amazing (the Jets would have had four sacks against any normal qb yesterday, btw). Jackson has fumbled it ten times and lost it five; Allen has fumbled it five times and lost it twice. Jackson has 9 total turnovers, while Allen has 8. 

 

Burrow has been sacked at a 6.77 percent rate and has fumbled it 10 times too (also 5 lost), so he has 13 total turnovers. 

[Process]

12 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

It never is... But I feel the votes will be heavily split this year between the top 3. because of that... It could hurt Allens chances. 

Top 3? Not sure who you have as the third but there isn't a guy outside of Josh and Lamar that will get a single first place vote.

[mjt328]

On 12/29/2024 at 8:13 AM, dave mcbride said:

Honestly—and this won’t be popular—I think the MVP this season is essentially a three-way tie between Allen, Jackson, and Burrow. Burrow is having a ridiculously great season. With average qb play, that Bengals team would be 4-12 right now.

 

Let me ask this... What is the main purpose of having an MVP award?

I would argue that it exists to build up the legacy of individual players.

 

In 15-20 years, when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are finished with their careers, much of their greatness will be attributed to the number of MVP awards they won.  Nobody considers Jackson the best QB in the NFL, outside of very biased Ravens fans.  The vast majority have him #3 or 4 in the league.  Allen is generally considered the #1 or #2 guy, neck and neck with Patrick Mahomes.  How ridiculous would it be for Jackson to have three MVPs, Mahomes have two and Allen have zero at this point of their careers?

 

Again.  When it comes to Jackson, you MUST disregard any (slight) stat advantage he's got over Allen... simply because the voters disregarded Allen's (large) advantage last year.  We are talking about 15 more touchdowns in 2023.  This year, Jackson has a whopping 2 touchdown lead... despite Allen sitting the entire 4th Quarter in something like six games this season.  

 

[zow2]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I've been thinking way too much about the MVP race. I CARE way too much about the MVP race. I'm not one of those "I don't give a damn if Josh wins or not, it's all about the Lombardi" guys. I want to see Josh named MVP because he deserves it, because it would validate him undeniably as an all-time great, and because it would burnish his eventual case for the Hall of Fame.

 

Adam Schein is a voter.  He said on his Sirius show this morning it's Allen and it's not close in his opinion.  He's not impressed much with the Bills weapons outside of Cook and he's not overly impressed with the Bills D.  But he said Allen is everything and 13-3 is amazing for this club.  And if the Bills win the Super Bowl it will be ALL Josh Allen.  So that's 4 guys this morning that have said they'd vote for Josh (and 2 are voters).

 

 

[njbuff]

I’m probably in the minority, but I don’t EVER or have ever thought about individual awards.

 

The only MVP that matters to me is the SB MVP (and actually winning the SB), which, of course, is the only individual award that matters to Bills fans.

[julian]

51 minutes ago, Process said:

Top 3? Not sure who you have as the third but there isn't a guy outside of Josh and Lamar that will get a single first place vote.

Yeah I’m thinking it’s not as close as some people are saying, Allen will receive somewhere in the 40 1st place vote range and maybe more imo.

[billieve420]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Top 3? Not sure who you have as the third but there isn't a guy outside of Josh and Lamar that will get a single first place vote.

 

Barkley is going to get votes when he breaks the all time season rushing record next week. Definitely won't be unanimous and maybe closer than people think as award is week to week narrative. So see both Barkley breaking the record and Lamar putting up numbers next week to make it close.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Diggs wasn't very super-star-like last season, after the first 6 games or so.  

What kept Josh from consideration last season was really all the turnovers.  

 

And those mostly were under Dorsey due in large part to terrible spacing concepts that created a lot of traffic in the same area.

[Saint Doug]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't hear a lot of ripping on Lamar, but maybe I'm just not listening.

 

This guy at SI is ripping on Spencer Brown as taking a "thinly veiled shot" at Lamar, though.  I don't see or hear a "shot".  
https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/bills-spencer-brown-takes-shot-baltimore-ravens-lamar-jackson

I think Spencer Brown's point is that last season, Josh did have a lot of stats over Lamar - not "every", OK, but passing yards, passing TDs, 1st downs, 4 Q comebacks, game winning drives, rushing TDs, rushing 1st downs.  Jackson had a higher completion percentage, higher pass Y/A, and more rushing yards and yards/attempt (also more fumbles). 

Then people were making the point to justify Lamar as MVP "well, it's not just about the stats, it's about what he means to the team's success".  So now some of the same people are looking at what Josh Allen means to the Bills success with most of the pundits predicting the Bills have no talent left and wouldn't even make the playoffs or win the division (and also cleaning up the INTs), and those same people are saying "oh, Lamar should win it because he has better stats, more passing yards, more passing TDs".

 

That's Brown's point.

 

Tell us you don't understand how the MVP selection process works, without telling us that you don't understand how the MVP selection process works.

Sorry, I meant “a” Super Bowl win. Allen has outplayed a good number of MVP winners over the years, but still hasn’t won a SB. For this, he just doesn’t get the respect across the league. Why not? I don’t know.