MVP hype for Allen

[strive_for_five_guy]

21 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Allen is not winning it dude 

Weren’t you saying Josh would win it in a landslide recently?  He’s still got a shot , but it’s obviously going to be close.

[Aussie Joe]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know. It could 100% be confirmation bias on my part because I really do want Allen to win and cement his legacy, but even before the announcement today I sincerely had thought that Lamar as all-pro/Allen as MVP was a fairly likely result. I'd heard it floated by a couple other analysts too.

 

It starts by acknowledging that this MVP race in particular has become very very hostile. There was a viral thread on Twitter where a Ravens fan basically threatened to find Dan Orlovsky when he was in Baltimore and hurt him. Sure it was almost certainly just a joke but it crossed a line and you never know in this day and age. And then there are several analysts trying to make the whole thing into a racial divide. The conversation has just gotten terrible and there's no way that isn't having at least some effect on the voters. So if you're a voter who wants to give Allen MVP but you don't want to be threatened or accused of racial bias, the easy answer is to vote Lamar as 1st team all-pro to give yourself plausible deniability. In that scenario you basically plant yourself on the fence and no one can accuse you of bias.

 

This all sounds insane as I'm typing it out but I think there's some truth to what I'm saying. I would still bet on Allen to win MVP. The all-pro/MVP split would be unprecedented in recent history but this is an unprecedented MVP race in general for a number of reasons.

 

If you think Allen is winning …I hope you have waited until now to put your bets on him … go and fill your boots …some good odds now ..

 

 

[Kelly to Allen]

17 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Weren’t you saying Josh would win it in a landslide recently?  He’s still got a shot , but it’s obviously going to be close.

I assumed the writers would be rational 

 

 

[BillytheKid]

3 hours ago, Process said:

You're looking at old information. Please share where you are seeing LIVE odds that have Allen as favorite.

It’s not old info.

 

its on vegasinsider. It updates everyday. 
 

You scroll to future odds and it shows what different sports books have for the day. Guess I will look tomorrow and see if anything has changed but currently Josh leads all of them. I have accounts with almost every leading sports book you can have including Bovada. 
 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Best of luck finding that with this front office.

 

Completely incapable of finding and drafting top end receivers 

Not so far.  I really like Coleman and I think he will be an absolute stud #2.  And hell they cant find stud pass rushers either

[AllenMania]

Don’t know how many noticed this: Out of the 50 ballots, Allen was on 42 of them. Lamar was on 49 of them. Cannot lose out on both fronts. 
Even if Lamar gets more first place votes, Allen has to be second place on the remaining ballots to make up the difference. Third -fifth places votes won’t help much. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Weren’t you saying Josh would win it in a landslide recently?  He’s still got a shot , but it’s obviously going to be close.

MVP is such a momentum award, especially today. Josh slowed down statistically while Lamar put up stats in must win games.

 

It was back and forth. A month ago I definitely thought it was Allen’s. Vegas made him the big favorite. Lamar finishing strong gave him an historic regular season to go with a division title.

 

 Both players deserve the award.

[Punch]

39 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

It’s not old info.

 

its on vegasinsider. It updates everyday. 
 

You scroll to future odds and it shows what different sports books have for the day. Guess I will look tomorrow and see if anything has changed but currently Josh leads all of them. I have accounts with almost every leading sports book you can have including Bovada. 
 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

None of the books listed at this link have live odds listed for NFL MVP futures, fwiw. The odds listed at vegasinsider appear to be from before the shift, but we'll see.

Edited 3 hours ago by Punch

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

I don't think the race is over yet. Here's what will happen - everyone that voted Allen 1st team all-pro will also vote him MVP. But some of the Lamar 1st team all-pro voters will give Allen the MVP. Their logic will be that Lamar was the best QB (based on volume stats) but Allen was the most valuable QB (based on narrative and team record). The final result will come down to how many of Lamar's 30 voters fall in that bucket. If even just 10 of them do, Allen will win. And to be honest that's what I think will happen.

 

This right here. 
 

Virtually zero percent chance any of the 18 Allen voters do not vote him for MVP.

 

There is a 12 vote difference between Allen and Lamar in first team all pro votes.

 

that means Allen only needs 6 of the 30 Lamar votes to switch to him for the two to be tied in first place votes. Then it comes down to who gets more second place votes or who can swing the two votes that went to a QB not named Allen or Jackson.

 

I don’t find that u reasonable at all. Very well could end up being about 8 -10 votes that switch from Jackson to Allen maybe even more. But on paper Allen needs at least six at minimum and that seems likely.

 

 

 

 

[Awwufelloff]

On 12/29/2024 at 2:56 PM, Awwufelloff said:

Allen isn’t winning mvp

I was right.

On 12/25/2024 at 6:59 PM, Awwufelloff said:

Lamar wins his 3rd MVP

yep

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know. It could 100% be confirmation bias on my part because I really do want Allen to win and cement his legacy, but even before the announcement today I sincerely had thought that Lamar as all-pro/Allen as MVP was a fairly likely result. I'd heard it floated by a couple other analysts too.

 

 

 

100% with you.

 

i never thought for a second Allen would be first team all pro. I’m actually a bit shocked he won 2nd team all pro by such a wide margin.

 

thought there was a real chance it could be Jackson and Burrow in that order.

 

This doesn’t change the MVP narrative at all.

[AllenMania]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

This right here. 
 

Virtually zero percent chance any of the 18 Allen voters do not vote him for MVP.

 

There is a 12 vote difference between Allen and Lamar in first team all pro votes.

 

that means Allen only needs 6 of the 30 Lamar votes to switch to him for the two to be tied in first place votes. Then it comes down to who gets more second place votes or who can swing the two votes that went to a QB not named Allen or Jackson.

 

I don’t find that u reasonable at all. Very well could end up being about 8 -10 votes that switch from Jackson to Allen maybe even more. But on paper Allen needs at least six at minimum and that seems likely.

 

 

 

 

Also there is a scenario where Lamar votes go to Saquon. So technically Allen may not gain votes here. But Lamar may lose some of his. Of course everyone had talked about the potential of some of them flipping. There are paths to victory here but rather be Lamar obviously. 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

I was right.

yep

 

Congrats. You use the same illogical arguments the voters use to discredit Allen constantly and hype up Lamar every chance they get.

 

It makes zero sense that by the voters own admission Lamar plays with a veritable cast of All-Stars while Allen plays with a team of "bums" but yet they somehow think what Lamar does while riding Henry's coattails is somehow more "valuable" than what Allen does.

 

Their argument by their own votes inherently makes no sense.

[MDH]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

This right here. 
 

Virtually zero percent chance any of the 18 Allen voters do not vote him for MVP.

 

There is a 12 vote difference between Allen and Lamar in first team all pro votes.

 

that means Allen only needs 6 of the 30 Lamar votes to switch to him for the two to be tied in first place votes. Then it comes down to who gets more second place votes or who can swing the two votes that went to a QB not named Allen or Jackson.

 

I don’t find that u reasonable at all. Very well could end up being about 8 -10 votes that switch from Jackson to Allen maybe even more. But on paper Allen needs at least six at minimum and that seems likely.

 

 

 

 

2 voters gave Burrow 1st place votes for All Pro too. Doubtful they vote for him for MVP.

 

I don’t think Allen wins but I can see it being closer than people think at this moment.

[BananaB]

The NFL awards are pretty much a joke at this point anyway. Let Lamar have his MVPs and his playoff losses, they look good together. When you need him most he plays his worst. 

[BillytheKid]

33 minutes ago, Punch said:

None of the books listed at this link have live odds listed for NFL MVP futures, fwiw. The odds listed at vegasinsider appear to be from before the shift, but we'll see.

Yeah just noticed they don’t.

 

If they open back up with Lamar Favored then Lamar will win it. 
 

Honestly don’t even care. Allen will ball out in the playoffs like he always does and Lamar will struggle again and everyone will wonder why they voted for Lamar.

 

Buffalo just needs to win the Super Bowl. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

I posted the combined stats for Josh and Lamar over the past two years, the difference before the last game of this year was 100 more rushing yards and 4 less turnovers for Lamar and 12 more TDs for Josh over the two years and they have the same victories over the two years. If you voted for LJ last year you have to vote for Josh this year or else you are voting for something other than the players ability to play the game and win games. 

[Billznut]

44 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

Yeah just noticed they don’t.

 

If they open back up with Lamar Favored then Lamar will win it. 
 

Honestly don’t even care. Allen will ball out in the playoffs like he always does and Lamar will struggle again and everyone will wonder why they voted for Lamar.

 

Buffalo just needs to win the Super Bowl. 

Someone changed their tune awfully quickly. 

[BillytheKid]

30 minutes ago, Billznut said:

Someone changed their tune awfully quickly. 

Not sure what you mean?

 

I’ve said all along whoever is favored last will win the MVP. Vegas odds always tell the correct story. I’ve  said it all along. 
 

You should probably know what you are talking about it before you speak. 

[SaulGoodman]

5 hours ago, Buryravens said:

Was being respectful. 
 

I don’t know why it’s shameful to be compared to PR. 
 

The Brady Manning of the past is now the Mahomes Lamar ordeal. 
 

Thats all

Lol. Lamar needs to do something in the playoffs to earn that comparison.