MVP hype for Allen

[VW82]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He leads the NFL in total EPA and EPA per play. EPA is the definition of "valuable." So he in fact has the strongest statistical case out of all of them. He's of course doing this with the weakest set of weapons compared to any other QB in the conversation.

 

Yes he's good in EPA per play but middle of the pack in CPOE. Jackson, Goff, Daniels, Burrow, Hurts are all way out in front there. My point is you have to get hyper-specific to make a statistical case for Josh because he's not all that close in most of them.

 

Edit: I'd also disagree wrt weapons. We've had this discussion before so I won't rehash that here.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2024 by VW82

[BillsFan130]

Just now, VW82 said:

 

Yes he's good in EPA per play but middle of the pack in CPOE. Jackson, Goff, Daniels, Burrow, Hurts are all way out in front there. My point is you have to get hyper-specific to make a statistical case for Josh because he's not all that close in most of them.

 

 

CPOE? What stat is that?

Not trolling, just honestly never heard of that one before 

[VW82]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

CPOE? What stat is that?

Not trolling, just honestly never heard of that one before 

 

Completion percentage above expected. 

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Yes he's good in EPA per play but middle of the pack in CPOE.

 

Why would CPOE matter in the MVP conversation? It doesn't calculate value at all. A QB making safe efficient throws all game would be at a disadvantage compared to, for example, a QB throwing prayers up to AJ Brown all game. Even though the 1st QB has the harder job and the less sustainable offense. EPA literally tells you how much value a QB is adding to the scoreboard.

 

11 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I'd also disagree wrt weapons.

 

The other QBs in the conversation are Jackson and Burrow, and you're not going to convince anyone Allen hasn't been working with less than either of them.

 

I remember before the season when most people said Allen wouldn't be able to produce with his diminished set of weapons and that if he could he would be the MVP for sure. Now it's week 17 and that narrative has mysteriously disappeared.

[MDH]

16 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Yes he's good in EPA per play but middle of the pack in CPOE. Jackson, Goff, Daniels, Burrow, Hurts are all way out in front there. My point is you have to get hyper-specific to make a statistical case for Josh because he's not all that close in most of them.

 

Edit: I'd also disagree wrt weapons. We've had this discussion before so I won't rehash that here.

 

 

 

Wait, what? “You have to get hyper specific”  when, literally, the only stat he trails heavily in is the one you point out…

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I remember before the season when most people said Allen wouldn't be able to produce with his diminished set of weapons and that if he could he would be the MVP for sure. Now it's week 17 and that narrative has mysteriously disappeared.

Like many Bills fans the constant refrain by the "experts" of this point was depressing as the summer wore on.  It was close to a universal opinion.  Now none of these so called "exerts" seems to remember saying this.

 

 

[VW82]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why would CPOE matter in the MVP conversation? It doesn't calculate value at all. A QB making safe efficient throws all game would be at a disadvantage compared to, for example, a QB throwing prayers up to AJ Brown all game. Even though the 1st QB has the harder job and the less sustainable offense. EPA literally tells you how much value a QB is adding to the scoreboard.

 

The other QBs in the conversation are Jackson and Burrow, and you're not going to convince anyone Allen hasn't been working with less than either of them.

 

I remember before the season when most people said Allen wouldn't be able to produce with his diminished set of weapons and that if he could he would be the MVP for sure. Now it's week 17 and that narrative has mysteriously disappeared.

 

EPA isn't the be-all-end-all. Equating it to MVP is too simplistic imo, just as equating DVOA to best team is too simplistic. I don't think voters look at it that way.

 

Burrow isn't in the MVP converation.

 

I wasn't one of those people. This feels a little strawman-ish. Plus, we traded for Amari Cooper. Cook is T1 for rushing TDs. Our RB and TE rooms are some of the best in the league. Our Oline including Six w Anderson is one of the best in the league. It just isn't accurate to claim Josh hasn't been working with the same calibre of weapons.

[HappyDays]

@VW82 since you're clearly a connoisseur of NFL ELO I'll also point out that Allen leads the NFL in total WPA and WPA per play. CPOE is clearly the least meaningful of those advanced stats.

[CincyBillsFan]

43 minutes ago, VW82 said:

It's tough because Josh has basically zero statistical case outside of QBR which has been ridiculed here repeatedly. His entire claim this season is narrative based which historically is a good thing to have but perhaps not the most solid argument. 

No his entire claim is based on the simple fact that Allen has been the most valuable player on his team by a wider margin then Jackson has been on his.  And Allen's team has outperformed Jackson's team.  The clincher is that very few expected Allen to play this well and the Bills to do this well this season.

 

 

[MDH]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

 

EPA isn't the be-all-end-all. Equating it to MVP is too simplistic imo, just as equating DVOA to best team is too simplistic. I don't think voters look at it that way.

 

Burrow isn't in the MVP converation.

 

I wasn't one of those people. This feels a little strawman-ish. Plus, we traded for Amari Cooper. Cook is T1 for rushing TDs. Our RB and TE rooms are some of the best in the league. Our Oline including Six w Anderson is one of the best in the league. It just isn't accurate to claim Josh hasn't been working with the same calibre of weapons.

They’re all just a data point. EPA is more of an offensive and defensive stat, not individual. The fact that the Bills’ O is great at EPA despite their weapons is a nod to QB and the OL.

[VW82]

6 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

Wait, what? “You have to get hyper specific”  when, literally, the only stat he trails heavily in is the one you point out…

 

 

 

Passer rating (9th), AY/A (6th), ANY/A (3rd), Passing TD (9th), Passing yards (11th), Y/Q (7th),...etc., etc.

[zow2]

48 minutes ago, VW82 said:

It's tough because Josh has basically zero statistical case outside of QBR which has been ridiculed here repeatedly. His entire claim this season is narrative based which historically is a good thing to have but perhaps not the most solid argument. 

 

He has a better record, a better seed, and the most impressive thing is going 2-0 vs KC and Detroit and 12 games 30+ points.

 

Meanwhile Lamar’s Ravens were the projected team to win AFC North again, added a HOF RB who has nearly 1,800 yards and they lost to KC and Philly.

Edited December 30, 2024 by zow2

[VW82]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

No his entire claim is based on the simple fact that Allen has been the most valuable player on his team by a wider margin then Jackson has been on his.  And Allen's team has outperformed Jackson's team.  The clincher is that very few expected Allen to play this well and the Bills to do this well this season.

 

 

 

For the record, I would vote Josh MVP. He's the best. I'm just highlighting the fact that his statistical case isn't exactly ironclad. 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

EPA isn't the be-all-end-all. Equating it to MVP is too simplistic imo, just as equating DVOA to best team is too simplistic. I don't think voters look at it that way.

 

I have no clue how voters look at it because the conversation is constantly changing to accommodate the narrative du jour. I do know that CPOE is not even part of the conversation because it doesn't measure QB value. If EPA isn't the one stat that measures value better than any, then I don't know what is. And I'm not saying EPA alone ends the debate. If for example Jalen Hurts led the NFL in EPA I would say well lets take into account the context of the situation around him because it's almost absurd how good it is. But with Allen he leads the NFL in EPA, AND has a less than elite supporting cast even under the most generous interpretation, AND has more wins than his MVP competition. To me those factors combined close the case. And I don't have to be "hyper specific" to come to that conclusion.

[Punch]

If McDermott padded Josh's stats at the same rate Harbaugh pads Lamar's, Josh would have more than 4,000 pass yards and possibly 50 total TDs. The Bills have taken their foot off the gas pedal late in games often and other RBs have been involved in the red zone. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have combined for 5 rushing TDs, only one Raven other than Derrick Henry or Lamar has a rushing TD (Justice Hill has 1).

[VW82]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

@VW82 since you're clearly a connoisseur of NFL ELO I'll also point out that Allen leads the NFL in total WPA and WPA per play. CPOE is clearly the least meaningful of those advanced stats.

 

Ok. Let's back up for a second. Can we agree that Josh is the best player in the league? Yes? Good. I'm making the case that Josh doesn't have the best statistical case. Do we still disagree?

 

Edit: you answered this above

Edited December 30, 2024 by VW82

[SoonerBillsFan]

When is MVP announced? I forget!

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

When is MVP announced? I forget!

When it's announced it'll either be a cool addition or the only thing we have left to look forward to this season.

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

When is MVP announced? I forget!

I believe Just before the Super Bowl 

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I have no clue how voters look at it because the conversation is constantly changing to accommodate the narrative du jour. I do know that CPOE is not even part of the conversation because it doesn't measure QB value. If EPA isn't the one stat that measures value better than any, then I don't know what is. And I'm not saying EPA alone ends the debate. If for example Jalen Hurts led the NFL in EPA I would say well lets take into account the context of the situation around him because it's almost absurd how good it is. But with Allen he leads the NFL in EPA, AND has a less than elite supporting cast even under the most generous interpretation, AND has more wins than his MVP competition. To me those factors combined close the case. And I don't have to be "hyper specific" to come to that conclusion.

 

I wonder if this is generally agreed upon by most NFL fans. Do you have basis for this argument beyond just your opinion? Edit: and I assume by "less than elite" you mean "less than his contemporaries."

Edited December 30, 2024 by VW82