MVP hype for Allen

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

38 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

 

Mina is awesome, and she's almost always championing Josh Allen. Every sports analyst will have bad takes throughout their career. Every person on this board has a TON of bad takes (myself included).

 

 

Anyone know what the record is for most total TDs in a given month? Allen has to be knocking on the door for December.

 

4 TDs vs the 49ers

6 TDs vs the Rams

4 TDs vs the Lions

 

And he's still got 2 more games to end the month.

 

I couldn't find the record for most total TDs in a calendar month.

 

For passing TDs only the record is Tom Brady with 20 in October 2007 in 5 games played. Peyton Manning had 19 passing TDs in November 2004 in only 4 games played. 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I couldn't find the record for most total TDs in a calendar month.

 

For passing TDs only the record is Tom Brady with 20 in October 2007 in 5 games played. Peyton Manning had 19 passing TDs in November 2004 in only 4 games played. 

 

Brady with 22 in October 2007.

 

Edited Monday at 07:20 PM by Big Turk

[BigDingus]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Brady with 22 in October 2007.

 

 

Awesome, thank you! So he's 5 away from tying Manning for 2nd place and 8 away from tying Brady for 1st.

 

22 TDs in a single month is pretty crazy, but it looks like most of those are in October or November. Brees has the most in December with 16, and Josh should definitely break that.

 

It's also cool to see he's already on this list 3 times!

[Cash]

On 12/2/2024 at 2:02 PM, Cash said:

 

I agree with all of this, in order.  Vegas odds have Allen as a pretty major favorite right now, which reflects where the voters collectively are at.  Doesn't guarantee anything with 5 games left, of course, but it's pretty good evidence that Allen is on pace to win the MVP as things currently stand.  I said after the Chiefs game that if we get the 1 seed, Allen will definitely win MVP this year.  At this point, I'd probably extend that to 1 or 2 seed.  Here's my quick thoughts on the likely competition:

• Saquon or any other non-QB: I'm normally very down with arguments for non-QBs - I think I would've voted for CMC last year if I had a vote.  But c'mon, please just not this year.  And like @Logic, I worry about it but ultimately don't think it'll happen.  MAYBE if Saquon or Henry breaks Dickerson's record or the yards from scrimmage record.
• Lamar: It's hard for me to see voters giving a third MVP to a guy with so little playoff success.  I know it's a regular season award, but these are human beings voting on it, and on some level they want their votes to be at least a little predictive of the playoffs.  But if he's transcendent in leading the Ravens to a comeback division title, he can't be counted out.  I think Allen would have to slip at least a little on top of that, though.
• Mahomes: Seems unlikely now, but let's say they win out and do it because Mahomes catches fire down the stretch.  In that scenario, very good chance he wins another MVP.  You'd need to see a big jump in his stats from where he is now though - just winning won't be enough IMO.
• Goff: It's a little weird that he's gotten so little buzz, because he's the QB on the (seemingly) best team in football, and some of his completion % stats this year have been historically good.  Like, absolutely nuts, but no one seems to care.  I'd put him as the biggest threat to Allen most likely, especially if the Lions beat us and he has a great game.  If they finish something like 15-2 with the 1 seed, and Goff doesn't throw another INT this year, he would be a very deserving MVP.  With that said, I think Allen has a distinct advantage with the voters, and it's that almost every voter would agree that Allen is a much better player than Goff in a vacuum.  So I think if it's close, or "both guys deserve the award", most of those tiebreakers will break towards Allen.

 

At the risk of being gauche, I'm quoting my post from 2 weeks ago to check back in.  First off, Allen's 10 total TDs since then have definitely helped his case, as did beating Goff and the Lions yesterday.  Second, I checked back on all MVP winners up to but not including Adrian Peterson, and they all had the following in common:  1.) Play QB, 2.) Either 1 or 2 seed in their conference.  Most had the best record in their conference, and all but Matt Ryan had 4 losses or fewer.  (Ryan's Falcons went 11-5 that year and were the 2 seed, and there weren't any great candidates that year in general.)  Let's check back in on the competition:

• Saquon: Not looking great but I don't think the coffin is nailed shut yet.  To have a chance, he needs to break Dickerson's record and I think the Eagles also need to get the 1 seed.  He's no longer on pace to break the record but it's still potentially doable.
• Lamar: If he loses to the Steelers on Saturday, it's over.  There's just no way he's winning his third MVP award as a wildcard.  His only hope IMO is to win out, hope the Bills falter, and get the 2 seed.
• Mahomes: Dunzo.  It's looking like he'll miss at least 1 game with his ankle sprain, and he hasn't exactly heated up in the last 2 weeks.  I just can't see a realistic path for him at this point.
• Goff: If we fall to the 3 seed (which would shock me, BTW), I think he's the most likely winner, even over Lamar.  Voter fatigue is real - and should be, in my opinion.  Lions will be either the 1 or 2 seed and Goff has looked great in all but 1 game this year - and he even managed to lead a comeback in that game.  Losing to Allen head-to-head isn't great, but he put up ridiculous numbers in that game.  With all the injuries on defense, and now losing Montgomery for a while, Goff will be getting more credit for every win they put up down the stretch.

Overall, I still say if we're the 1 or 2 seed it's Allen and probably not close.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

At the risk of being gauche, I'm quoting my post from 2 weeks ago to check back in.  First off, Allen's 10 total TDs since then have definitely helped his case, as did beating Goff and the Lions yesterday.  Second, I checked back on all MVP winners up to but not including Adrian Peterson, and they all had the following in common:  1.) Play QB, 2.) Either 1 or 2 seed in their conference.  Most had the best record in their conference, and all but Matt Ryan had 4 losses or fewer.  (Ryan's Falcons went 11-5 that year and were the 2 seed, and there weren't any great candidates that year in general.)  Let's check back in on the competition:

• Saquon: Not looking great but I don't think the coffin is nailed shut yet.  To have a chance, he needs to break Dickerson's record and I think the Eagles also need to get the 1 seed.  He's no longer on pace to break the record but it's still potentially doable.
• Lamar: If he loses to the Steelers on Saturday, it's over.  There's just no way he's winning his third MVP award as a wildcard.  His only hope IMO is to win out, hope the Bills falter, and get the 2 seed.
• Mahomes: Dunzo.  It's looking like he'll miss at least 1 game with his ankle sprain, and he hasn't exactly heated up in the last 2 weeks.  I just can't see a realistic path for him at this point.
• Goff: If we fall to the 3 seed (which would shock me, BTW), I think he's the most likely winner, even over Lamar.  Voter fatigue is real - and should be, in my opinion.  Lions will be either the 1 or 2 seed and Goff has looked great in all but 1 game this year - and he even managed to lead a comeback in that game.  Losing to Allen head-to-head isn't great, but he put up ridiculous numbers in that game.  With all the injuries on defense, and now losing Montgomery for a while, Goff will be getting more credit for every win they put up down the stretch.

Overall, I still say if we're the 1 or 2 seed it's Allen and probably not close.

 

Even if Barkley breaks the record it would be absurd to suggest he is more valuable than Allen when the Eagles were a few minutes from winning the SB 2 years ago without him and then 10-0 at one point last year without him.  How can you be that valuable to a team that's already very, very good without you?  Plus he is running back.  The value compared between RB and QB is not even a discussion.

 

 

Edited Monday at 07:49 PM by Big Turk

[Goin Breakdown]

2 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

How do you stop this?

 

 

This was the throw that got me. Running left and as a right hander, throws the ball at that angle.  

[Chicken Boo]

So long as he doesn't put up 3 stinkers, it's pretty well sewn up.  

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, wnyguy said:

I want him to get Super Bowl MVP and don't really care about League MVP, sure it would be nice but I want the Lombardi.

 

Sorry to disappoint you but Allen is going to get MVP, Super Bowl victory, and Super Bowl MVP all this year. I said what I said.

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Utah John said:

As a Bills fan part of my brain is always pessimistic, and asking what could go wrong.  In this case, it's the Bills' schedule.  Not impressive.  Sure they beat the top team in each conference, that's really great, but look at the rest:

 

Cardinals (W) currently 7-7

Dolphins (W) 6-8

Jags (W) 3-11

Ravens (L) 9-5

Texans (L) 9-5

Jets (W) 4-10

Titans (W) 3-11

Seahawks (W) 8-6

Dolphins (W) 6-8

Colts (W) 6-8

Chiefs (W) 13-1

49ers (W) 6-8

Rams (L) 8-6

Lions (W) 12-2

 

Teams currently above .500 are in bold.  Against them the Bills are 3-3, and in the losses it was only the Rams game where Josh played well.  In fact Josh's poor play (completing 9 out of 30 passes) was really the reason the Bills lost to the Texans.  That game was a wakeup for Josh.  He stopped trying to connect downfield all the time, and turned into smart and deadly Josh.

 

You can only play the teams on your schedule, and the Bills and Josh deserve great credit for winning all the games they've won.  Even mediocre teams have some good players and coaches.  But still, just 3-3 against teams with winning records is not impressive.

 

 

 

 

 

You can make a schedule argument for just about every team. Nobody sits there and plays the Chiefs every week.

[billsbackto81]

On 11/19/2024 at 10:26 PM, Doc Brown said:

LOL.  He's already had 11 different MVP's this season. 

They always say, it's a week to week league. 😆

22 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

This was the throw that got me. Running left and as a right hander, throws the ball at that angle.  

On a rope with perfect placement no less.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

37 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Even if Barkley breaks the record it would be absurd to suggest he is more valuable than Allen when the Eagles were a few minutes from winning the SB 2 years ago without him and then 10-0 at one point last year without him.  How can you be that valuable to a team that's already very, very good without you?  Plus he is running back.  The value compared between RB and QB is not even a discussion.

 

 

A Lamar stats only argument isn’t even super strong…Josh and Lamar are tied in total tds, Lamar has one more total turnover, they’re separated by about 100 passing yards and 250ish rushing yards.  People making it sound like Lamar is miles ahead statistically are strictly lookin at passing stats.  Lamar leads in total yards but not by some ungodly amount 
 

I can’t see Josh not getting it 

Edited Monday at 08:27 PM by Generic_Bills_Fan

[4merper4mer]

3 hours ago, Utah John said:

As a Bills fan part of my brain is always pessimistic, and asking what could go wrong.  In this case, it's the Bills' schedule.  Not impressive.  Sure they beat the top team in each conference, that's really great, but look at the rest:

 

Cardinals (W) currently 7-7

Dolphins (W) 6-8

Jags (W) 3-11

Ravens (L) 9-5

Texans (L) 9-5

Jets (W) 4-10

Titans (W) 3-11

Seahawks (W) 8-6

Dolphins (W) 6-8

Colts (W) 6-8

Chiefs (W) 13-1

49ers (W) 6-8

Rams (L) 8-6

Lions (W) 12-2

 

Teams currently above .500 are in bold.  Against them the Bills are 3-3, and in the losses it was only the Rams game where Josh played well.  In fact Josh's poor play (completing 9 out of 30 passes) was really the reason the Bills lost to the Texans.  That game was a wakeup for Josh.  He stopped trying to connect downfield all the time, and turned into smart and deadly Josh.

 

You can only play the teams on your schedule, and the Bills and Josh deserve great credit for winning all the games they've won.  Even mediocre teams have some good players and coaches.  But still, just 3-3 against teams with winning records is not impressive.

 

 

 

 

If you spin it another way and subtract the results of the Games played against the Bills then you could say that the Bills are 6-3 against teams that are .500 or better.  If the Colts and Niners improve slightly, that’d be 8-3.  The Bills have played 14 games only three of which have come against truly bad teams.  I’m not sure what you’re trying to say.  Are the Ravens bad?  They blew a two score 4Q lead to the Raiders at home.  

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

A Lamar stats only argument isn’t even super strong…Josh and Lamar are tied in total tds, Lamar has one more total turnover, they’re separated by about 100 passing yards and 250ish rushing yards.  People making it sound like Lamar is miles ahead statistically are strictly lookin at passing stats   
 

I can’t see Josh not getting it 

 

And the EPA/play isn't even close.  Allen leads the NFL at .341 EPA/play and QBR, Jackson is 2nd in both, EPA/play is .287.  Essentially what this says is that on every play, on average, Josh Allen is 16% more valuable than Lamar has been. That is crazy. 

 

Also, Lamar has played about 50 more offensive snaps than Allen, amounting to close to a whole game since Allen has sat so much during 4th Q's this year.

3 hours ago, Utah John said:

As a Bills fan part of my brain is always pessimistic, and asking what could go wrong.  In this case, it's the Bills' schedule.  Not impressive.  Sure they beat the top team in each conference, that's really great, but look at the rest:

 

Cardinals (W) currently 7-7

Dolphins (W) 6-8

Jags (W) 3-11

Ravens (L) 9-5

Texans (L) 9-5

Jets (W) 4-10

Titans (W) 3-11

Seahawks (W) 8-6

Dolphins (W) 6-8

Colts (W) 6-8

Chiefs (W) 13-1

49ers (W) 6-8

Rams (L) 8-6

Lions (W) 12-2

 

Teams currently above .500 are in bold.  Against them the Bills are 3-3, and in the losses it was only the Rams game where Josh played well.  In fact Josh's poor play (completing 9 out of 30 passes) was really the reason the Bills lost to the Texans.  That game was a wakeup for Josh.  He stopped trying to connect downfield all the time, and turned into smart and deadly Josh.

 

You can only play the teams on your schedule, and the Bills and Josh deserve great credit for winning all the games they've won.  Even mediocre teams have some good players and coaches.  But still, just 3-3 against teams with winning records is not impressive.

 

 

 

 

 

What are we talking about here?  Lamar has 2 losses to teams that are a combined 5-22 this year in the 2-11 Raiders and 3-11 Browns. Forget only a few great wins, Lamar has 2 terrible losses. all of the Bills losses have come to teams above .500 at least and there are 2 fewer ones than the Ravens have.

 

Bills also beat 2 teams that are a combined 25-1 against the rest of the NFL. Can't get any more impressive wins than that. And in those games the Lions never led and the Chiefs led by 1 point early on(thanks Bass) and never led in the 2nd half.

Edited Monday at 08:35 PM by Big Turk

[The Wiz]

Last 3 games:

7 passing TDs

1 receiving TD

6 rushing TDs

Edited Monday at 08:46 PM by The Wiz

[All_Pro_Bills]

23 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

A Lamar stats only argument isn’t even super strong…Josh and Lamar are tied in total tds, Lamar has one more total turnover, they’re separated by about 100 passing yards and 250ish rushing yards.  People making it sound like Lamar is miles ahead statistically are strictly lookin at passing stats.  Lamar leads in total yards but not by some ungodly amount 
 

I can’t see Josh not getting it 

Lamar and the Ravens lost to the Raiders. That by itself results in automatic disqualification from consideration for the MVP award.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Lamar and the Ravens lost to the Raiders. That by itself results in automatic disqualification from consideration for the MVP award.

Oh yea I’m saying even ignoring total losses the case still isn’t super strong 

[Warcodered]

3 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

I must have missed Richard Sherman's rant about "numbers matter" when Lamar won MVP last year.  I'm guessing they didn't matter as much in 2023.

The numbers matter argument doesn't even make sense anyway, Allen has just as many TDs and fewer turnovers than Lamar.

[Dr. K]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

I get your point, but I respectfully disagree.

Josh Allen has been doubted, ridiculed, laughed at, and insulted his entire career. He has had to fight, claw, and scrap to get where he is. You all already know the story -- the no college offers, the 1,000 letters he wrote, the "if Josh Allen succeeds, he will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself" article, all of it -- so I won't go into more detail on it. But make no mistake: If we're talking about legacy, if we're talking about going down as an all-time great and a first ballot Hall of Famer, Josh Allen DOES need to win an MVP award. He absolutely does.

Not only does he need it for his legacy, but he deserves to win it. For the work he puts in, for the way he has transformed this franchise, for the way he lifts up an entire region, for all the good he does in the community. He deserves it.

Aside from needing the award to help cement his legacy, and deserving the award, I also just WANT him to win it. He's a good, kind, funny, genuine, selfless, awesome person and an All-World golden retriever lumberjack space alien with a howitzer for an arm, and *****, I want him to have an MVP on his resume. 

So yeah...I get it. It's all about a Lombardi. I'm sure Josh Allen would say the same thing, and I'm sure coach McDermott would say the same thing. But I, as a fan, don't have to say the same thing. I can admit it: I WANT JOSH ALLEN TO WIN THE MVP AWARD. I want it badly. 

I want Allen to get the MVP for all the reasons you state.

 

But right now I want him healthy and able to play. That's much more on my mind given what he said after the game about his shoulder. 

[The Wiz]

the perfect game (January 15th, 2021)

Allen:

84% comp

308 passing 

5 passing TDs

0 ints

66 rushing yards

[GASabresIUFan]

13 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

the perfect game (January 15th, 2021)

Allen:

84% comp

308 passing 

5 passing TDs

0 ints

66 rushing yards

I'm surprised the Bills PR team hasn't posted a retort.