Ravens Revisited

[boyst]

1 hour ago, PoundingDog said:

The Ravens are the worst match-up to the Bills. Detroit might be the 2nd worst.

 

Henry/Jackson and the most complicated run oriented attack match well to the biggest weakness of Bills defense. I want to point out that Jackson's passing game has improved. On offense, man coverage maximizes Bills WR weakness.   

 

Watch how Steelers would even discourage the Ravens running Henry. They have guys like Keenu Benton and Cameron Heyward on DL which are relative unknown compared to Watt but key to disrupt Ravens blocking scheme. The Bills have Oliver and Jones, enough said.

 

I'm not saying we can't beat Ravens in January - most likely in Buffalo, but it would be a hard fought, tough game. Handling them then going to KC is indeed a tall order. Ideally you want to face one of them on your way to the superbowl from AFC.

 

If the Bills can get the #1 seed, it is like gifted a win in January. Facing both Ravens and Chiefs in Buffalo then is OK. In the most likely scenario where the Bills getting the #2 seeds, I hope we get a break avoiding the Ravens before heading to KC and there is a real chance for that based on what the Steelers are doing now. If the Steelers wind up winning the AFCN division, and the Bills manage to maintain #2 seed. The Ravens are going to be #5 or #6 seed. After the division round, say the Ravens win and other division winners pass thru, then the Ravens will actually go to KC. 

 

Things could change but I caution that Steelers might threaten the Bills with the #2 seed. Based on winning opponents remaining, the Steelers have to face Ravens and Eagles away and Chiefs at home. The Bills have Lions and Rams away and 49ers at home. The Lions might be the best team in NFL. 

This matchup is always good with Detroit but it's one of those teams like Green Bay. We always seem to win. 1 loss in almost 30 years and 10 matchups.  Always close, always tough, always an injury. But we win. 

 

We win this one. 

[DCofNC]

24 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Of course, I believe every coach tries to win every week.  I used to believe that coaches throw everything including the kitchen sink at the game in front of them.  A one week at a time mindset.

But I've come to believe, mostly because of comments coaches have made over the years, that they don't always throw the kitchen sink. 

 

I heard one of Belichick's coordinators - forget which one - talk about playing the AFCE.  He said they wouldn't scheme both games the same way (which would be predictable).   They would think ahead and decide to use one scheme one game and another scheme the next meeting.  I'm guessing they employed the better scheme in the matchup they considered more important or challenging. 

 

To give different Pats examples, Belichick devised the so-called "ameoba defense" during the 2011 regular season but didn't utilize it till the playoffs.  In the 2014, Belichick came up with some weird formations with eligible receivers as ineligible - another idea he saved for January.  

 

Sometimes the kitchen sink is saved for the playoffs.  

 

I don't know if McD does this.  It doesn't seem his style.  Yet is seems odd to me that both Babich and Brady both laid big dirty eggs at the same time.  Though, I admit, there's a bit of homerism here.  I don't want to believe we're as bad as that scoreboard.  

 

 

I find it far fetched to think they are bringing anything less than their best to the table against a team they will be in the running against for seeding.  Not only that, this is so early in the season, the odds are you will be playing a far more evolved team, late in the year. 
 

They got it handed to them, it’s over, move on.   They know you can’t let the Ravens beat you with the run game, yet they got run over.  It was a bad game.  Thankfully, it looks like they have made some adjustments to help the run D and challenge QBs to beat them.

[bills_fan]

If you recall, the Bills were down but just starting to turn it on offensively and then Brady called that goofy trick play that resulted in a turnover.  Ravens scored from there and we could not get back in the game.  

[sven233]

I'd have to go back and watch the game to be sure of my assessment as I don't remember it all that well.  But I do know that we are not the same team today as we were then.  No Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, Jordan Phillips (I think he's actually played fairly well for us since he came back), or Quinton Jefferson (see Jordan Phillips).  Of course there was no Cooper for that game and Shakir was banged up and not the same dude he is now.  Also, it is becoming more obvious that Samuel was playing more injures than we all knew at the time as well.  Throw in a potentially healthy Matt Milano and a more seasoned Coleman for the rematch if it works out that way and the game looks a lot different I think.

 

You can't undersell what having no Bernard in that game meant.  He is the QB of that defense and makes sure everyone knows their assignments and where they need to be.  Our biggest problem in that game was that we were constantly out of position in the run game.  Our gap integrity was atrocious and they had nothing but giant lanes to run through the entire game.  And you give them wide open lanes to run through with Henry, and you are just asking for problems. 

 

As controversial as it might sound, I think the best way to beat that team is to stack the LOS and force Jackson to beat you with his arm down the field.  If you eliminate Henry, they are a much easier team to beat.  I know Jackson is the "MVP" and all, but I think that this year, Henry is arguably more valuable to that team's success than Jackson is.  If you look at the times they are struggling, they are usually having trouble getting Henry established.  Having Spector trying to call this defense and play for Bernard is just a serious downgrade and it was never a fair fight.  We very rarely run blitzed in that game and we actually presented them with a light box for a majority of the game.  To me, that is a recipe for disaster and between the players that we had not playing in this game, and the game plan itself on both sides of the ball, we were begging to get beat and we did get beat.

 

We are in a much better position to compete with that team now.  I am not saying we are that much better than they are because I don't think we are.  They are a bad match up for us because of how they like to play, but physically, if we are completely healthy, I don't think it is as one sided as it looked in that game if we played that game again now.

Edited 2 hours ago by sven233

[hondo in seattle]

In 10+ years on this board, I've never had so many people disagree with me so quickly.

 

Intellectually, you all make a lot of good points.  

Psychologically, I want to believe in Santa, that life is fair, and the Bills are better than the Ravens.  So I'm stubbornly sticking with the idea that the Bills tried to win with their 'B' plan against the Ravens last month while saving the 'A' plan for the playoffs where we'll crush them mercilessly.  

 

 

[Logic]

I think that the idea of an NFL head coach knowingly holding stuff they think will work back from an opponent "just in case" they meet them in the playoffs, is nonsense. It's fallacy. I don't think it happens.

There are too few games in an NFL season, and they're all too important to potential playoff seeding, and everyone works too hard (from coaches to players) to knowingly hold anything back that would help you win a regular season game.

Now maybe when you play a divisional opponent two times within a few weeks, a team you see often, you hold a little bit back in the first meeting to use in the second meeting. But an opponent you only see once in a given year, and as early in the season as we played the Ravens, no less? Absolutely not. I just don't buy it.

I don't think the Chiefs did it against the Bills. I don't think the Bills did it against the Ravens. In both cases, I think one team just outplayed and outcoached the other. It happens. It's the NFL. I don't buy into all the 4D Chess.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

The Ravens game has stuck in my memory and led me to believe the Bills aren't as good as their record.  But I might be reconsidering my evaluation.

 

I don't remember the exact streak, but that game was something like the first Bills contest since the Tet Offensive that we lost by more than one score.  The Raven beat us by 25.  Power rankings, ELO, EPA, DVOA, betting markets, etc. All have us rated ahead of the Ravens, and yet they annihilated us.

 

Brady, who's been having a good year, seemed powerless to generate any offense.  Babich, who is also enjoying a good year, seemed powerless to stop the Ravens attack.  Wierdly, both coordinators picked the very same day to have their worst game of the season.  

 

Maybe the impotency was, in a way, by design?  Maybe McD said something like this to his coordinators, "Come up with two game plans for the Ravens.  Save the better one for the playoffs.  Use the more vanilla one this week."  

 

Thoughts?

 

 

I think we were banged up, there were some poor play calls at inopportune times, and got bullied in the trenches.  It doesn't mean we can't play with them, just that we didn't that day.  

 

Bernard out.  Johnson out.  Literally 3 backups playing at LBer when you factor milano also being out.  Rapp played 16 snaps.  That's a lot of important players who didn't play.  

 

Offensively, this was pre-cooper and we had struggled with man coverage beaters, blitzes and simulated pressures.  Seasons are long, stuff is put on film, and you adapt.  

Edited 2 hours ago by Bleeding Bills Blue

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

In 10+ years on this board, I've never had so many people disagree with me so quickly.

 

Intellectually, you all make a lot of good points.  

Psychologically, I want to believe in Santa, that life is fair, and the Bills are better than the Ravens.  So I'm stubbornly sticking with the idea that the Bills tried to win with their 'B' plan against the Ravens last month while saving the 'A' plan for the playoffs where we'll crush them mercilessly.  

 

 

I think the Bills may be better than the Ravens when healthy.

 

their offensive gameplan worked great when we had Baylon Spector and Dorian out there trying to read and react. 

With Bernard, Milano and Taron out there, that gameplan won’t work nearly as well imo. 

[eball]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think the Ravens exposed our limitations on both sides of the ball. Reasons to be encouraged are Johnson, Bernard and Milano all missed that game and the Ravens attacked that "second level" of Lewis, Williams and Spector relentlessly. I counted it up and in the first half they called only 2 offensive plays not designed to attack that unit. And on the other side they, by their own admission, compressed the field because they didn't think the Bills could beat them outside down the field. I doubt they'd be so confident to do that with Amari Cooper on board. 

 

Yup.  And despite all of that, the Bills were down 21-10 with the ball at midfield in the 3rd quarter (and momentum) when Brady had an absolute brain fart and almost got his QB killed.

 

87-yard TD runs are an anomaly and this game is a distant memory at this point in the season.

 

[machine gun kelly]

My feelings on the Ravens and Texans losses…

 

Ow, what’s that for, Don’t worry it’s in the past.  Oh great and wise Rafiki.  You can learn a few things from some Disney movies.

 

Im honestly, not worried about any AFC team on the path to the SB.  That doesn’t mean we will with the AFCCG, just we can.  As far as the SB, if it happens this year, we’ll probably face the Lions so a healthy Bills team in four weeks will most likely be a preview.

 

That would be a fun game in NO.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, eball said:

 

Yup.  And despite all of that, the Bills were down 21-10 with the ball at midfield in the 3rd quarter (and momentum) when Brady had an absolute brain fart and almost got his QB killed.

 

87-yard TD runs are an anomaly and this game is a distant memory at this point in the season.

 

I believe the last time we got blown out it was Indy and taylor just gashed us.  And much like that game a massive brain fart occurred - at 17-7 with about 2 minutes left in the half and a chance to double dip - mckenzie fumbles and we get it back 24-7 and never got out of the pass happy approach.  

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yup.  And despite all of that, the Bills were down 21-10 with the ball at midfield in the 3rd quarter (and momentum) when Brady had an absolute brain fart and almost got his QB killed.

 

87-yard TD runs are an anomaly and this game is a distant memory at this point in the season.

 

 

Yea the Brady trick play was a momentum killer for sure. 

[hondo in seattle]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

I think that the idea of an NFL head coach knowingly holding stuff they think will work back from an opponent "just in case" they meet them in the playoffs, is nonsense. It's fallacy. I don't think it happens.

There are too few games in an NFL season, and they're all too important to potential playoff seeding, and everyone works too hard (from coaches to players) to knowingly hold anything back that would help you win a regular season game.

Now maybe when you play a divisional opponent two times within a few weeks, a team you see often, you hold a little bit back in the first meeting to use in the second meeting. But an opponent you only see once in a given year, and as early in the season as we played the Ravens, no less? Absolutely not. I just don't buy it.

I don't think the Chiefs did it against the Bills. I don't think the Bills did it against the Ravens. In both cases, I think one team just outplayed and outcoached the other. It happens. It's the NFL. I don't buy into all the 4D Chess.

 

You're probably right, Logic, and - if you pardon the pun - your logic is flawless.  And that's certainly what I've believed most of my football-watching life.

But over the years I've heard coaches & players talk about 'saving things for the playoffs' (though, admittedly, mostly denying it).  Or 'putting things on film' so they can surprise a later opponent by doing something different.  We've seen Reid, Belichick, and others roll out wrinkles - which they've sometimes admitted originated earlier in the season - in the playoffs.

 

Watching Belichick in the playoffs, I would wonder if he was as much a strategist as a tactician.  He knew those Brady teams were heading to the playoffs.  Maybe he looked at the big picture and decide to potentially lose some battles but win the war by saving some of his best ideas for January.  The amoeba defense, for example.     

 

I don't think all coaches attempt to play 4D chess for the reasons you mention.  But I think Belichick did and Reid does.  And so I wonder if McD does too.   

[RyanC883]

you always go with your best gameplan.  But this game I believe is what got us Cooper, so we won that way so far.  Seeing what the Steelers did to Lamar is hopefully instructive for us if we face the Ravens again.  

23 minutes ago, sven233 said:

I'd have to go back and watch the game to be sure of my assessment as I don't remember it all that well.  But I do know that we are not the same team today as we were then.  No Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, Jordan Phillips (I think he's actually played fairly well for us since he came back), or Quinton Jefferson (see Jordan Phillips).  Of course there was no Cooper for that game and Shakir was banged up and not the same dude he is now.  Also, it is becoming more obvious that Samuel was playing more injures than we all knew at the time as well.  Throw in a potentially healthy Matt Milano and a more seasoned Coleman for the rematch if it works out that way and the game looks a lot different I think.

 

You can't undersell what having no Bernard in that game meant.  He is the QB of that defense and makes sure everyone knows their assignments and where they need to be.  Our biggest problem in that game was that we were constantly out of position in the run game.  Our gap integrity was atrocious and they had nothing but giant lanes to run through the entire game.  And you give them wide open lanes to run through with Henry, and you are just asking for problems. 

 

As controversial as it might sound, I think the best way to beat that team is to stack the LOS and force Jackson to beat you with his arm down the field.  If you eliminate Henry, they are a much easier team to beat.  I know Jackson is the "MVP" and all, but I think that this year, Henry is arguably more valuable to that team's success than Jackson is.  If you look at the times they are struggling, they are usually having trouble getting Henry established.  Having Spector trying to call this defense and play for Bernard is just a serious downgrade and it was never a fair fight.  We very rarely run blitzed in that game and we actually presented them with a light box for a majority of the game.  To me, that is a recipe for disaster and between the players that we had not playing in this game, and the game plan itself on both sides of the ball, we were begging to get beat and we did get beat.

 

We are in a much better position to compete with that team now.  I am not saying we are that much better than they are because I don't think we are.  They are a bad match up for us because of how they like to play, but physically, if we are completely healthy, I don't think it is as one sided as it looked in that game if we played that game again now.

 

I think the Steelers did this.  But you also have to have a solid secondary, which we have.  So we should be able to go after the run game and pressure Lamar.  I think our secondary can hold it's own against the Raven's WRs.  

[colin]

the team and the coaches who showed up (williams and that white guy at lb, and cam lewis instead of TJ, just shocking downgrades at the positions we need most based on our scheme and what the ravens do) which had a totally green coleman and no cooper and a hurt samuel (and waste or roster spot mvs) was never gonna win that game.  baltimore had a great plan, we did not, and with the above mentioned holes (not to mention rapp who has been a real bright spot, and shakir who is our best wr going down!) it would be too much to overcome on the road.

 

now, if brady and babich adjusted better on the fly (some change on D, not having the stupid trick play) we might have made a game of it, but no way we win.

 

if we can get fully healthy (milano, kinkaid, no cast coop, coleman, spencer brown, carter, smoot) for the detroit game and we still get blow out, then i'll concede im being a homer and we just don't have what it takes for these kind of match ups.  if we beat detroit, then im confident we beat the ravens at home in the playoffs. 

[machine gun kelly]

34 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

You're probably right, Logic, and - if you pardon the pun - your logic is flawless.  And that's certainly what I've believed most of my football-watching life.

But over the years I've heard coaches & players talk about 'saving things for the playoffs' (though, admittedly, mostly denying it).  Or 'putting things on film' so they can surprise a later opponent by doing something different.  We've seen Reid, Belichick, and others roll out wrinkles - which they've sometimes admitted originated earlier in the season - in the playoffs.

 

Watching Belichick in the playoffs, I would wonder if he was as much a strategist as a tactician.  He knew those Brady teams were heading to the playoffs.  Maybe he looked at the big picture and decide to potentially lose some battles but win the war by saving some of his best ideas for January.  The amoeba defense, for example.     

 

I don't think all coaches attempt to play 4D chess for the reasons you mention.  But I think Belichick did and Reid does.  And so I wonder if McD does too.   

Hondo, you last statement we’ll never know so I don’t think about those questions.  No one is ever going to cop to it so why bother.  I think McD does everything he can to win each week, amd don’t buy he’s holding back.  The only evidence I see is All in the biggest games lets it fly.  It was not an accident he ran twice as much in the Chiefs game than he did most of the season.  We’ll see it again in Detroit, and the playoffs.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by machine gun kelly

[TheBrownBear]

We were injured during those two games.  Defense had a bunch of holes.  On offense, Shakir was beat up for most of the Ravens game and out against Houston.  If we enter relatively healthy when we play them in the playoffs, I like our chances.