What Would You Give Up for Aubrey?

[78thealltimegreat]

Aubrey is untouchable. He’s literally the cowboys offense.

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Ecmic82 said:

There are a few instances where the Bills might have kicked a field goal with Aubrey instead of what they actually did (usually punt). A 64 yarder vs Baltimore, a 62 and 66 yarder vs Houston, a 64 yarder vs Kansas City. Maybe they try the 51 yarder vs Kansas City to go up 16-7 instead of going for it on 4th and 3? I’m not mad at the decision, but Aubrey might change the math on that one.
 

These numbers look a little crazy, But Aubrey’s been close to automatic at these distances (he nailed a 64 yarder that had at least 3 or 4 extra yards in it last night, but it was negated by a defensive penalty).

 

Mostly, I’d want a kicker like Aubrey for the playoffs, where the impact of elite kickers is often magnified due to relatively evenly matched teams.

Lol at all the 60 yarders.  Im not gonna assume those are all in.  Noone is automatic from that distance (Aubrey has as many misses this year as bass playing in a DOME!!!!!)

the 64 yarder against Bal is the first drive?  I have that as a 67 yarder as the ball was at the 50.  

the 66 yarder against Houston is risky business as they didnt score that next drive.  if they get the ball in our territory they very well might (probably a FG).

the 62 yarder against Houston is a TD if it misses cause they settled for a FG after a long drive.  

KC i have another 67 yarder as ball was at midfield.  Considering they had to punt on the subsequent drive I wouldnt give them the short field either.  

 

Would love to have an automatic kicker but its way more complicated than you make it out to be (I dont consider anything <90% automatic lol).

[Shortchaz]

Just have to live with bass missing 1 in 10 extra points 

[Draconator]

Knowing Jerry Jones like I've heard about on TV, he would probably want two #1's for him. 

[Ecmic82]

42 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Lol at all the 60 yarders.  Im not gonna assume those are all in.  Noone is automatic from that distance (Aubrey has as many misses this year as bass playing in a DOME!!!!!)

the 64 yarder against Bal is the first drive?  I have that as a 67 yarder as the ball was at the 50.  

the 66 yarder against Houston is risky business as they didnt score that next drive.  if they get the ball in our territory they very well might (probably a FG).

the 62 yarder against Houston is a TD if it misses cause they settled for a FG after a long drive.  

KC i have another 67 yarder as ball was at midfield.  Considering they had to punt on the subsequent drive I wouldnt give them the short field either.  

 

Would love to have an automatic kicker but its way more complicated than you make it out to be (I dont consider anything <90% automatic lol).

I didn’t mean to imply he’s automatic from that range, which is why I tried to be careful with my words. Small sample, but he is 6 for 6 on field goals of 57+ (and 3 for 3 on field goals 60+, with a 64 yard make negated last night, and a 66 yarder called back against the Browns).

 

I am not referring to that particular Baltimore drive, and I’m not referring to that Kansas City drive.

 

of course the negative EPA from potential misses should, in a perfect analysis, be factored, but the negative EPA from actual misses should then also be factored, and Aubrey actually misses far less than most other kickers.

 

And, I know it’s funny to be referencing all the 60 yarders. I get it, but in THIS NFL, where teams are more incline to try 55+ yarders than ever before, the line of demarcation between kicking and punting has become those 58, 59, and 60+ yarders. That’s just the reality of it.

Edited Tuesday at 03:41 PM by Ecmic82

[st pete gogolak]

54 minutes ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

 

My left....  

Foot?

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

Not saying Dallas would be interested but they sure as heck need draft capital. What would you be willing to give up for a kicker who makes 60 yard field goals like extra points?  I’d give up a fourth in a heartbeat. If we had a third, I’d give up a third. What say you?

I think that this is an interesting conversation. I actually think that I agree. It’s crazy to consider that, but on a Bills team with the window open, minimal holes, and lots of draft capital, securing the best kicker in football would be worth it. On paper, it’s an overpay. I value an elite kicker, for this team, more than a depth player that could develop into a starter. The Bills have been incredible at finding depth (it’s the elite talent they’ve had a hard time finding). 

[GunnerBill]

Nothing. 

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

I didn’t mean to imply he’s automatic from that range, which is why I tried to be careful with my words. He is, however, 6 for 6 on field goals of 57+ (and 3 for 3 on field goals 60+, with a 64 yard make negated last night).

 

I am not referring to that particular Baltimore drive, and I’m not referring to that Kansas City drive.

 

of course the negative EPA from potential misses should, in a perfect analysis, be factored, but the negative EPA from actual misses should then also be factored, and Aubrey actually misses far less than most other kickers.

 

And, I know it’s funny to be referencing all the 60 yarders. I get it, but in THIS NFL, where teams are more incline to try 55+ yarders than ever before, the line of demarcation between kicking and punting has become those 58, 59, and 60+ yarders. That’s just the reality of it.

But the question is what would you give up for it and its crazy to me to think Aubrey is worth a 4th round.  Particularly when he has as many misses as Bass and he plays in a dome!  Getting the best kicker has some value but its a tricky game cause their play can be very streaky. 

 

Agree the line has moved back but Bass has the leg for it too so its not like it moves the line back much (again Aubrey is kicking those in great conditions).  Aubrey has played 3 games outdoors and he has 2 misses in those games.  I aint paying a 4th for that.

[Sweats]

I work with a woman named Aubrey........we can't stand her.

[Mr. WEO]

why would they get rid of their best player?

[djp14150]

2 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

He hit a goal post. Gotta be accurate to do that!

You hit the goal podt and in you get extra points. A 6 pt kick hits all 3 bars. Get a point if you hit the bar

Edited Tuesday at 03:52 PM by djp14150

[Ecmic82]

10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

But the question is what would you give up for it and its crazy to me to think Aubrey is worth a 4th round.  Particularly when he has as many misses as Bass and he plays in a dome!  Getting the best kicker has some value but its a tricky game cause their play can be very streaky. 

 

Agree the line has moved back but Bass has the leg for it too so its not like it moves the line back much (again Aubrey is kicking those in great conditions).  Aubrey has played 3 games outdoors and he has 2 misses in those games.  I aint paying a 4th for that.

Yeah, I get it. I predicated my post with the acknowledgment that I probably value elite-elite kickers more than most people do. Maybe it’s a blind spot for me.

 

For me, the piece of mind of going into the playoffs with a kicker like Aubrey is worth more than the value-add of a late 4th round pick, particularly when factoring in timelines. As an example, Davis has been a great surprise for me this year, but I’d rather pair Allen with possibly the best kicker in the NFL(maybe yet to become the best in history?) for the rest of his playoff career than probably anything else that could be, on average, had in the 4th round, but that’s just my value judgment, and could be short-sighted 🤷‍♂️.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 03:52 PM by Ecmic82

[djp14150]

Ummm…I’m not trading for a dome kicker

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

Yeah, I get it. I predicated my post with the acknowledgment that I probably value elite-elite kickers more than most people do. Maybe it’s a blind spot for me.

 

For me, the piece of mind of going into the playoffs with a kicker like Aubrey is worth more than the value-add of a late 4th round pick, particularly when factoring in timelines. As an example, Davis has been a great surprise for me this year, but I’d rather pair Allen with possibly the best kicker in the NFL(maybe yet to become the best in history?) for the rest of his playoff career than probably anything else that could be, on average, had in the 4th round, but that’s just my value judgment, and could be short-sighted 🤷‍♂️.

 

 

I get it.  and there is def value to an elite kicker.  but i dont think its worth the cost and potential unknown when we have potentially have a good one already.  If we dont have Davis then we are gonna give carries to Evans or Gore Jr?  Nah I think we get a few more first downs (and thus points) from having Davis.  appreciate you talking through it though.

[Ray Stonada]

Didn’t he miss a 40 yarder last night?

[st pete gogolak]

12 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Didn’t he miss a 40 yarder last night?

Yeah, he slipped on the turf and hit the upright.   He also nailed a 64 yard FG with room to spare.

[davefan66]

Not going to be traded. He is the only constant for that team right now.

 

I had hope they would look at Jake Bates when he was available as a FA.  Dude is 15-15 FG and 39-40 extra points.  8 of his FG’s are 30-49 yards.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

49 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

But the question is what would you give up for it and its crazy to me to think Aubrey is worth a 4th round.  Particularly when he has as many misses as Bass and he plays in a dome!  Getting the best kicker has some value but its a tricky game cause their play can be very streaky. 

 

Agree the line has moved back but Bass has the leg for it too so its not like it moves the line back much (again Aubrey is kicking those in great conditions).  Aubrey has played 3 games outdoors and he has 2 misses in those games.  I aint paying a 4th for that.

 

He doesn't have as many misses as Bass.

 

Aubrey has 2 misses this year (and one block). 10 FGs made from 50+ yards

 

Bass has 7 misses (3 FGs and 4 PAT).  2 FGs made from 50+ yards

 

Not to mention Bass had one of the worst playoff meltdowns ever last season. 

 

I'd gladly give up a 4th for Aubrey, but doubt the Cowboys would take it. 

[Metal Man]

Every year young kickers coming out are getting better and better.

 

Just scout well and draft our own Aubrey on day 3.

 

There will be much better players/positions to be found with the 3rd or 4th round picks being talked about here.