What Would You Give Up for Aubrey?

[st pete gogolak]

Not saying Dallas would be interested but they sure as heck need draft capital. What would you be willing to give up for a kicker who makes 60 yard field goals like extra points?  I’d give up a fourth in a heartbeat. If we had a third, I’d give up a third. What say you?

[Bruffalo]

I'd say the trade deadline has passed. 

[WotAGuy]

He hit a goal post. Gotta be accurate to do that!

[st pete gogolak]

2 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

I'd say the trade deadline has passed. 

Uh, in the off-season.

[Bruffalo]

1 minute ago, st pete gogolak said:

Uh, in the off-season.

 

Then you should just draft one. Why would you give up massive capital like a 3rd when you can use a 5-6th and get someone similar?

 

Why specifically would we want Aubrey? The big leg? I don't want McDermott to have any reason to try and kick 55+ yard fieldgoals instead of going for it on 4th down. 

 

 

[Ecmic82]

I’d definitely give up a 4th, probably even a 3rd, but I probably value the elite-elite kickers more than the average fan. He’s probably worth 1-2 points more per game than a league-average kicker, which is a better return than I think could reasonably expected from a late 4th round pick.

 

I also think he could’ve made a meaningful impact in the playoffs last year.

Edited November 19 by Ecmic82

[st pete gogolak]

11 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

 

Then you should just draft one. Why would you give up massive capital like a 3rd when you can use a 5-6th and get someone similar?

 

Why specifically would we want Aubrey? The big leg? I don't want McDermott to have any reason to try and kick 55+ yard fieldgoals instead of going for it on 4th down. 

 

 

Fair enough but I don’t think guys like Aubrey just fall off trees.  If you get the ball on the 30, you’re two first downs from FG range.  Phenomenal weapon.

[BuffaloBillyG]

He seems to be what Justin Tucker was before this year. And I've seen a LOT of Baltimore wins happen because of Tucker. 

 

I'd go as high as a 3rd straight up. An offer Id assume Dallas would laugh at and hang up the phone.

[Ya Digg?]

Using a 3rd or 4th round pick on a kicker right in the middle of Josh's prime would be an absolute and utter waste of resources.  There are so many other spots on the field that you can use those picks for before you waste it on a kicker - who by the way you are now paying top dollar for.  So now a draft pick has been traded and you're using up cap space.  Not a smart move at all

[Bruffalo]

3 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Fair enough but I don’t think guys like Aubrey just fall off trees.  If you get the ball on the 30, you’re two first downs from FG range.  Phenomenal weapon.

There's only 3 kickers who have made a 60+ yard field goal this season and Tyler Bass is one of them.  

 

I'm not trying to say that Aubrey and Bass are on the same level, but you wouldn't be getting a markedly better kicker. It'd change the Bills win percentage chances by what? 2 percent? It would be a misuse of resources to trade for any kicker, especially in the offseason. 

 

For all the hemming and hawing about Bass on this board, he's actually about a middle of the road kicker after the last few games. He has a stronger than average leg though, which could matter in clutch situations when you absolutely need it. 

 

The real point here is that we shouldn't want to settle for field goals, regardless of who the kicker is. 

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

these kickers have so many ups and downs. Wouldn’t surprise me if he suddenly gets the yips in a season or two, just like Bass.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Has he kicked outdoors yet?

[YattaOkasan]

15 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

I’d definitely give up a 4th, but I probably value the elite-elite kickers more than the average fan. He’s probably worth 1-2 points more per game than a league-average kicker, which is a better return than I think could reasonably expected from a late 4th round pick.

 

I also think he could’ve made a meaningful impact in the playoffs last year.

So you have to consider points greater than what we have, which is Bass.  Hes left a total of 13 points on the field this year (little known fact, if he hits his next 2 FGs its his best kicking % of his career).  Please let me know if theres any situation you think McD would have kicked instead of punted (cause that would add to the total).  So thats 1 point per game that bass has left on the field versus a perfect kicker.  I think Ray Davis's 428 yards have resulted in 13 points (see the Jets game) over replacement, so I def think a 4th round pick at a position offers greater return.  You can start convincing me maybe in the 5th, but really the 6th.  And again this is against a perfect kicker.  

Edited November 19 by YattaOkasan

[MJS]

You know, kickers are weird. Half of their ability is mental. Getting traded and going to a new environment is exactly the type of thing that might get a kicker into a mental spiral and cause a decline. New city, new teammates, new coaches,and a new holder. That seems like a recipe for kicking problems.

[BritBill]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

You know, kickers are weird. Half of their ability is mental. Getting traded and going to a new environment is exactly the type of thing that might get a kicker into a mental spiral and cause a decline. New city, new teammates, new coaches,and a new holder. That seems like a recipe for kicking problems.

 

At least 8 more games kicking in a tumble dryer. 

[Bruffalo]

9 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

So you have to consider points greater than what we have, which is Bass.  Hes left a total of 13 points on the field this year (little known fact, if he hits his next 2 FGs its his best kicking % of his career).  Please let me know if theres any situation you think McD would have kicked instead of punted.  So thats 1 point per game that bass has left on the field versus a perfect kicker.  I think Ray Davis's 428 yards are worth more than 13 points (see the Jets game), so I def think a 4th round pick at a position offers greater return.  You can start convincing me maybe in the 5th, but really the 6th.  And again this against a perfect kicker.  

It's worth mentioning that Aubrey only has a 2% greater FG hitrate than Bass as well (86.4 vs 88.5).

 

The extra points are frustrating but the narratives surrounding Bass are out of hand given his production since the Miami game. 

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

 

My left....  

[Ecmic82]

23 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

So you have to consider points greater than what we have, which is Bass.  Hes left a total of 13 points on the field this year (little known fact, if he hits his next 2 FGs its his best kicking % of his career).  Please let me know if theres any situation you think McD would have kicked instead of punted (cause that would add to the total).  So thats 1 point per game that bass has left on the field versus a perfect kicker.  I think Ray Davis's 428 yards have resulted in 13 points (see the Jets game) over replacement, so I def think a 4th round pick at a position offers greater return.  You can start convincing me maybe in the 5th, but really the 6th.  And again this is against a perfect kicker.  

There are a few instances where the Bills might have kicked a field goal with Aubrey instead of what they actually did (usually punt). A 64 yarder vs Baltimore, a 62 and 66 yarder vs Houston, a 64 yarder vs Kansas City. Maybe they try the 51 yarder vs Kansas City to go up 16-7 instead of going for it on 4th and 3? I’m not mad at the decision, but Aubrey might change the math on that one.
 

These numbers look a little crazy, But Aubrey’s been close to automatic at these distances (he nailed a 64 yarder that had at least 3 or 4 extra yards in it last night, but it was negated by a defensive penalty).

 

Mostly, I’d want a kicker like Aubrey for the playoffs, where the impact of elite kickers is often magnified due to relatively evenly matched teams.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

15 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

My left....  

Was coming here to do the same thing, although I might go with the right one

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

A Klondike bar.