The Frankish Reich Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM Just now, K D said: 5-10% of your net worth is a pretty safe bet That's perfectly sane. Hey, I always hold a little gold as a hedge against inflation. But I know people - young people (at least to me) - who are basically putting their entire nest eggs in crypto. And I've heard stories of other people doing things like taking loans from their 401k in order to buy Bitcoin. That kind of thing usually doesn't end well. The case for Bitcoin itself (which is better than the case for crypto in general) is still remarkably weak. After those 13 years it still does not function as a medium for transactions other than shady/criminal transactions, which is more of a statement about it's ability to avoid regulation than it is about intrinsic worth as a medium for transactions. And wild price fluctuations vs. other world currencies are a bug, not a feature. There should be no need for a Tether in a world that is actually using Bitcoin for its intended purpose. The fact that Tether exists tells us that crypto has not crossed the threshold into being a useful mechanism for exchange. Maybe it will; I doubt it. 2 1
K D Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Author Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM (edited) 32 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: That's perfectly sane. Hey, I always hold a little gold as a hedge against inflation. But I know people - young people (at least to me) - who are basically putting their entire nest eggs in crypto. And I've heard stories of other people doing things like taking loans from their 401k in order to buy Bitcoin. That kind of thing usually doesn't end well. The case for Bitcoin itself (which is better than the case for crypto in general) is still remarkably weak. After those 13 years it still does not function as a medium for transactions other than shady/criminal transactions, which is more of a statement about it's ability to avoid regulation than it is about intrinsic worth as a medium for transactions. And wild price fluctuations vs. other world currencies are a bug, not a feature. There should be no need for a Tether in a world that is actually using Bitcoin for its intended purpose. The fact that Tether exists tells us that crypto has not crossed the threshold into being a useful mechanism for exchange. Maybe it will; I doubt it. As with any investment, if people are that bullish it's usually a bad sign that it's at the top and needs a correction. I think the things keeping Bitcoin going is how scarce it is compared to the increased institutional demand (ETF's and corporate balance sheets) and the fact that Trump has promised a US Bitcoin reserve which will likely result in all industrialized nations doing the same. There's only so much Bitcoin to go around and if every country wants a reserve then there is all of a sudden going to be some insane supply shock where it's not crazy to think that it could go from 100k to 500k just as quickly as it went from 50k to 100k. It's going to be big money fomo'ing into the space in 2025. I think the kids doing the silly meme coins is a get rich quick thing, which is different, and those never pan out. I feel pretty confident in Bitcoin itself currently. If you feel like you already missed the Bitcoin boat (I don't think you did) or want to diversify into other crypto - Ethereum is the silver to Bitcoin's gold, LTC and Solana will probably be next to get ETF's, Elon loves Doge coin, and banks love Ripple XRP as a replacement to wires. Everything else is purely speculation and everyone has their favorites. We'll see! Edited Tuesday at 06:36 PM by K D
Doc Posted Tuesday at 09:40 PM Posted Tuesday at 09:40 PM 4 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Still relevant, 177 years later. Bitcoin as the newest, fanciest tulip bulb? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds The first volume begins with a discussion of three economic bubbles, or financial manias: the South Sea Company bubble of 1711–1720, the Mississippi Company bubble of 1719–1720, and the Dutch tulip mania of the early seventeenth century. According to Mackay, during this bubble, speculators from all walks of life bought and sold tulip bulbs and had even declared futures contracts on them. Allegedly, some tulip bulb varieties briefly became the most expensive objects in the world during 1637. Don't forget the fourth economic bubble: the mid-1990's Beanie Baby bubble. I don't know much about the tulip bulb bubble but tulip bulbs/flowers can be grown and the higher abundance of them as time went on likely led to the crash. There will only ever (eventually) be 21M BTC.
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