Kincaid update? (now declared OUT for Sunday)

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

and based on stats Goff is a more accurate passer than Josh, so is it an OC problem or a QB problem? As just last week Josh missed hitting a wide open Kincaid. I'm guessing that's our OC fault right? 

 

That pass should have added another 50-60 yards and another TD. That one hurt, but Kincaid got himself wide open.

 

Trying to make comparisons like this is difficult because each situation has so many variables. I am not down on Kincaid at all, I can’t wait to get him back. More weapons never hurts, we just need to use them right. 

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

and based on stats Goff is a more accurate passer than Josh, so is it an OC problem or a QB problem? As just last week Josh missed hitting a wide open Kincaid. I'm guessing that's our OC fault right? 

Also missed Kincaid streaking down the field on a huge play against Houston. If Josh hits those two passes, the narrative is different. I’d put Kincaid’s lack of production more on Allen than Joe Brady. Those two missed plays aren’t the only times Kincaid has been open and the ball hasn’t found him for whatever reason.

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 11/12/2024 at 9:27 AM, CNYfan said:

85 gets open

 

 

85 just plain catches the stupidest balls.

 

I will guaranty you that at some point while here Morris will catch a ball that first hits the back side of his head.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[Ayjent]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

These two things do not match. You would look more to the seam ball when a team is playing cover 1 or 3. C2 would have both safeties ON the seams, and when a play such as vertical routes is called vs this look, you have your seam player either:

 

1) bend to the middle of the field to split the safeties

 

2) clear out safeties and run them out of the intermediate range for anything coming underneath

 

It isn’t a great route combination for the TEs vs the two high look. It these circumstances you often see Allen throwing the boundary vert between the CB and deep half, or taking the check down if the flat player carries the boundary WR downfield.

 

I think your overall sentiment here is one that I’d love to know more about in their scheming for downfield passing attack. They continue to lack the consistent ability to stretch the field in structure without relying on Allen to create. There are many levels to this (design, personnel, defensive scheme) but they just seem completely content taking the short to intermediate routes and allowing those deeper options to essentially act as clear outs 

I’m speaking more about the Tampa 2 where seam routes are designed to be in the spaces in the zone scheme and as you point out these are commonly routes that do need to go to the space between the safeties and lbs or the safeties and the corners and aren’t straight into the coverage.  I probably used bad wording saying ‘down the seams” as if I were talking relatively vertical routes on the hashes, although running outside vertical clearing routes can make those effective routes as well when you have good TEs or run a delayed route where another route has pulled coverage away making the seam a bigger target.   TEs are the biggest weapon against a Tampa 2, and I understand that the Bills are seeing a variety of 2 high safety looks not just Tampa 2, but they also have been most successful when they’ve stressed opponents reliance on playing two high with effectively pushing the ball downfield to TEs in the seams and balanced it with utilizing the backs in the passing game when teams try to adjust dropping cbs deeper, leaving the lbs exposed and putting our good blocking WRs in position to make a crucial downfield block. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 hours ago, Augie said:

 

That pass should have added another 50-60 yards and another TD. That one hurt, but Kincaid got himself wide open.

 

Trying to make comparisons like this is difficult because each situation has so many variables. I am not down on Kincaid at all, I can’t wait to get him back. More weapons never hurts, we just need to use them right. 

“We just need to use them right”

 

This has been a common refrain from fans and local media - what do you mean by this in reference to Kincaid?

 

Just down the field I presume? 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

“We just need to use them right”

 

This has been a common refrain from fans and local media - what do you mean by this in reference to Kincaid?

 

Just down the field I presume? 

 

I’ll be honest, I feel the play calling is wonky at times. It seems like we were forcing the ball to Samuel last game, and I’m not sure if that was a need. It seemed forced, rather than opportunistic.

 

I think Kincaid can be used all over the field, but it would help a LOT if we had some other healthy options. I still see a speedy deep threat as a priority this offseason, and maybe that helps open things up. When we get Cooper and Coleman back 100% things could look very different.

 

I like the way the RB’s are being used. The WR’s have faced a lot of injuries. The TE’s seem like we could be getting more. Someone smarter than me with All-22 needs to figure out why that is. I believe in Kincaid’s talent. 

 

Oh, and I don’t hear any of the WNY media, so I wasn’t aware that was a theme. 

[GoBillsForeverAndAlways]

Really hoping Kincaid is back for Sunday as we could sure use him for this one! We need as many receiving options as possible

[Buffalo716]

12 hours ago, Brand J said:

Also missed Kincaid streaking down the field on a huge play against Houston. If Josh hits those two passes, the narrative is different. I’d put Kincaid’s lack of production more on Allen than Joe Brady. Those two missed plays aren’t the only times Kincaid has been open and the ball hasn’t found him for whatever reason.

That Miss last game was so minute... That's a tracking issue at the NFL level .. and I really like Kincaid.. but the best can track the ball without losing speed

 

 

It's one thing if you overthrow a guy by six yards... If it's within fingertips of the guy and he's running down the field he's not doing a good enough job tracking it 

 

Watch guys like DeSean Jackson track a football 60 yards in the air.. they can maintain 19 20 miles an hour while tracking it over their shoulder 

 

While other NFL guys the same ball they dipped down to 17 miles an hour to track it.. and that's the difference between a catch and a fingertip miss

 

One thing if it's 5 yards overthrown.. when it's that close at the NFL level it's generally a tracking issue.. he needs to get better at tracking

 

The best wide receivers or pass catchers when the ball goes in the air they have another gear

 

And yes there is some hyperbole to this there is obviously a such thing as a bad pass but it's the small things at the highest level 

Edited November 14 by Buffalo716

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That Miss last game was so minute... That's a tracking issue at the NFL level .. and I really like Kincaid.. but the best can track the ball without losing speed

 

 

It's one thing if you overthrow a guy by six yards... If it's within fingertips of the guy and he's running down the field he's not doing a good enough job tracking it 

 

Watch guys like DeSean Jackson track a football 60 yards in the air.. they can maintain 19 20 miles an hour while tracking it over their shoulder 

 

While other NFL guys the same ball they dipped down to 17 miles an hour to track it.. and that's the difference between a catch and a fingertip miss

 

One thing if it's 5 yards overthrown.. when it's that close at the NFL level it's generally a tracking issue.. he needs to get better at tracking

 

The best wide receivers or pass catchers when the ball goes in the air they have another gear

 

Okay, I agree with a lot of this, except sometimes if a pass falls JUST beyond a receiver's hands, it can also mean that despite the target's accurate and full speed tracking, the ball was still thrown just a little too hot and/or trajectory a little too flat, or released too early, or just plain slightly overthrown. Maybe a faster WR makes an overthrown pass look more catchable.  

[Buffalo716]

27 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Okay, I agree with a lot of this, except sometimes if a pass falls JUST beyond a receiver's hands, it can also mean that despite the target's accurate and full speed tracking, the ball was still thrown just a little too hot and/or trajectory a little too flat, or released too early, or just plain slightly overthrown. Maybe a faster WR makes an overthrown pass look more catchable.  

I used a little bit of hyperbole 

 

There's obviously a chance it is a bad pass completely... But at the NFL level the margin is so small that it's little things like that

 

I did say generally too emphasize that sometimes it is also a bad pass placement but it's the little things like tracking the ball perfectly that could make a easy catch look harder

Edited November 14 by Buffalo716

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That Miss last game was so minute... That's a tracking issue at the NFL level .. and I really like Kincaid.. but the best can track the ball without losing speed

 

 

It's one thing if you overthrow a guy by six yards... If it's within fingertips of the guy and he's running down the field he's not doing a good enough job tracking it 

 

Watch guys like DeSean Jackson track a football 60 yards in the air.. they can maintain 19 20 miles an hour while tracking it over their shoulder 

 

While other NFL guys the same ball they dipped down to 17 miles an hour to track it.. and that's the difference between a catch and a fingertip miss

 

One thing if it's 5 yards overthrown.. when it's that close at the NFL level it's generally a tracking issue.. he needs to get better at tracking

 

The best wide receivers or pass catchers when the ball goes in the air they have another gear

 

And yes there is some hyperbole to this there is obviously a such thing as a bad pass but it's the small things at the highest level 

The problem with this comp is that Allen doesn’t throw rainbows like Aaron Rodgers, Hurts, and Russell Wilson that allow receivers to track. His arm is frankly too strong for that and his deeper throws are therefore lower trajectory. It’s an apples and oranges thing.  It’s also crazy to blame Kincaid for that play. Allen gave him no chance on that one.

[T master]

On 11/12/2024 at 7:07 AM, Blackbeard said:

Knox needs to step up 

 

I believe he would if given more than 1 or 2 targets a game, ever since they drafted Kincaid it's like they have just pushed Knox a side but when they have targeted him he has made the catch & i for one would like to see more targets for him especially in the red zone .

 

With Kincaid out for a minute they need to continue to look his way and get him more involved in the passing game because he was the guy not to long ago but Brady wasn't the guy calling his number then so it's like he has forgotten that he is another weapon at his disposal .

 

Hopefully come play off time he has some plays specifically for him in mind because a lot of teams are now keying on Kincaid making it harder for him to put up a lot of stats but if they utilize Knox more it could open Kincaid back up for more production .

[GoBills808]

if this guy doesn't play sunday he's soft

 

am i doing it right

[Buffalo716]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The problem with this comp is that Allen doesn’t throw rainbows like Aaron Rodgers, Hurts, and Russell Wilson that allow receivers to track. His arm is frankly too strong for that and his deeper throws are therefore lower trajectory. It’s an apples and oranges thing.  It’s also crazy to blame Kincaid for that play. Allen gave him no chance on that one.

As I said there was some hyperbole to explain typically what happens when an NFL pass is that close 

 

These million dollar pass catchers, do we have one job catch the ball.. now I've seen Kincaid run down the field over 2 years plenty of times and I'm saying he does not track the ball as well as he could

 

I never said it was a perfect throw.. but he's not the best tracker of a football down the field

 

2 years ago Allen had the highest completion percentage on deep throws in the NFL.. he doesn't have the best consistent deep Ball but he does not have anything close to the worse 

 

And technically with how close he was there is a chance.. he literally got fingers from both hands on the ball if I'm correct.. it's a game of inches 

 

And there's a lot of ways to make up that couple of inches running down the field.. better angles , quicker burst to the ball, not losing speed tracking the ball... 

 

Again I'm not saying this one throw is a direct blame of this I'm saying I've noticed Kincaid doesn't do this the best

Edited November 14 by Buffalo716

[Shaw66]

18 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That Miss last game was so minute... That's a tracking issue at the NFL level .. and I really like Kincaid.. but the best can track the ball without losing speed

 

 

It's one thing if you overthrow a guy by six yards... If it's within fingertips of the guy and he's running down the field he's not doing a good enough job tracking it 

 

Watch guys like DeSean Jackson track a football 60 yards in the air.. they can maintain 19 20 miles an hour while tracking it over their shoulder 

 

While other NFL guys the same ball they dipped down to 17 miles an hour to track it.. and that's the difference between a catch and a fingertip miss

 

One thing if it's 5 yards overthrown.. when it's that close at the NFL level it's generally a tracking issue.. he needs to get better at tracking

 

The best wide receivers or pass catchers when the ball goes in the air they have another gear

 

And yes there is some hyperbole to this there is obviously a such thing as a bad pass but it's the small things at the highest level 

I haven't watched replays carefully. Did he lose speed?  If so, that's a really interesting point, because it was literally a half step, which means the ball was right on the money.  Still, I'll say that given how open he was, Allen could have and probably should have dialed it back a tad. That was a tough run for his receiver. 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I haven't watched replays carefully. Did he lose speed?  If so, that's a really interesting point, because it was literally a half step, which means the ball was right on the money.  Still, I'll say that given how open he was, Allen could have and probably should have dialed it back a tad. That was a tough run for his receiver. 

It definitely wasn't the best throw I ever saw and as I've explained this was more hyperbole to show a lot of times when a ball is that close , the receiver at the NFL level can do a better job of tracking it or taking a better angle or a better burst 

 

I haven't watched this play five times back to come to a complete conclusion but I have noticed that Dalton does seem to lose a little burst tracking a ball over his shoulder occasionally 

 

As I said even going from 17 to 15 miles an hour could be the difference between a catch and hitting your fingertip

 

[dave mcbride]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

As I said there was some hyperbole to explain typically what happens when an NFL pass is that close 

 

These million dollar pass catchers, do we have one job catch the ball.. now I've seen Kincaid run down the field over 2 years plenty of times and I'm saying he does not track the ball as well as he could

 

I never said it was a perfect throw.. but he's not the best tracker of a football down the field

 

2 years ago Allen had the highest completion percentage on deep throws in the NFL.. he doesn't have the best consistent deep Ball but he does not have anything close to the worse 

 

And technically with how close he was there is a chance.. he literally got fingers from both hands on the ball if I'm correct.. it's a game of inches 

 

And there's a lot of ways to make up that couple of inches running down the field.. better angles , quicker burst to the ball, not losing speed tracking the ball... 

 

Again I'm not saying this one throw is a direct blame of this I'm saying I've noticed Kincaid doesn't do this the best

Allen is often accurate; it's when he's not that the catches aren't there. He's not a "general vicinity" deep thrower like Russell Wilson, who specializes in the deep pop fly that his receivers can chase down and shag relatively easily. Allen is basically Giancarlo Stanton. It's why I don't think it's quite fair to criticize his receivers for failing to track the ball. 

Edited November 14 by dave mcbride

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The problem with this comp is that Allen doesn’t throw rainbows like Aaron Rodgers, Hurts, and Russell Wilson that allow receivers to track. His arm is frankly too strong for that and his deeper throws are therefore lower trajectory. It’s an apples and oranges thing.  It’s also crazy to blame Kincaid for that play. Allen gave him no chance on that one.

we've seen that play go for touchdowns many times before w Diggs and Davis

 

just didn't work here for any number of reasons... Allen needed to put more air under the ball, Kincaid gets a little caught up w his DB, Brown's man is in Allen's lap so he throws it off his back foot...it's not like they haven't had success in the past w this throw

[Andrew Son]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Allen is often accurate; it's when he's not that the catches aren't there. He's not a "general vicinity" deep thrower like Russell Wilson, who specializes in the deep pop fly that his receivers can chase down and shag relatively easily. Allen is basically Giancarlo Stanton. It's why I don't think it's quite fair to criticize his receivers for failing to track the ball. 

Before Allen have you ever heard of a QB with too strong of an arm for a deep ball?

 

Seems like a relatively simple fix just to use more loft

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Allen is often accurate; it's when he's not that the catches aren't there. He's not a "general vicinity" deep thrower like Russell Wilson, who specializes in the deep pop fly that his receivers can chase down and shag relatively easily. Allen is basically Giancarlo Stanton. It's why I don't think it's quite fair to criticize his receivers for failing to track the ball. 

Yeah allen throws piss missiles 

 

Russell throws a pop fly