Kincaid update? (now declared OUT for Sunday)

[Chicken Boo]

9 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

The team is better with just Knox in lineup.  Knox can actually block, and is able to catch the 3 balls that Kincaid catches.

 

You guys are rough 😆

[CaseyatBat]

I dont see it with the "12 personnel" thing. Why on earth would teams with speedy WRs and RBs want to line up with 2 lumbering TEs. Like keeping your Ferraris in the garage and driving around in the 2005 Jeep Cherokees instead

 

The bills offense was at its best with Allen in the shotgun and 4 WRs.. (although these WRs now kinda suck)

 

 

Edited November 12 by CaseyatBat

[notpolian]

I wouldn't say the team is better with Knox in the lineup.  But I think people expect more from Kincaid than he is going to deliver.  He can't outrun DBs.  He is not a big dude so he can't "box out" his way open and he is not good at blocking.  He has good hands and runs good routes. Because of his blocking issues it's hard to have him in there as the only TE if you want to run the ball.

 

He is sort of like a bigger Cole Beasley, and I say that in a positive way.  I don't know if he is being asked to find the soft spots in zones enough (Kelce is painfully good at this).  They don't have him go to the flats that much I think.  He tries hard after the catch.  Many would probably would look at him differently if he wasn't a first round pick.

Edited November 12 by notpolian

[Ayjent]

I think Kincaid and TEs in general might be more effective if there was more emphasis on getting designed routes down the seams when teams play 2 high safeties.  That also starts with the backs running effectively drawing up the LBs and being receiving threats in the short passing game.  These are things that the Bills have the perfect personnel to use, but haven’t quite been consistent in exposing.  They should be abusing teams with lbs that don’t have enough speed and yet the seem determined to run plays that are attacking the intermediate flats and not using their backs as much as they should in passing game.   It’s working but there is another level that they can reach to be more consistent.  Kincaid stats are a product of that in my opinion and he is getting targets but also a good share of those targets aren’t necessarily good throws or easy catches because the coverage is there or the throw is off due to pressure. 

[Buffalo Junction]

12 hours ago, notpolian said:

I wouldn't say the team is better with Knox in the lineup.  But I think people expect more from Kincaid than he is going to deliver.  He can't outrun DBs.  He is not a big dude so he can't "box out" his way open and he is not good at blocking.  He has good hands and runs good routes. Because of his blocking issues it's hard to have him in there as the only TE if you want to run the ball.

 

He is sort of like a bigger Cole Beasley, and I say that in a positive way.  I don't know if he is being asked to find the soft spots in zones enough (Kelce is painfully good at this).  They don't have him go to the flats that much I think.  He tries hard after the catch.  Many would probably would look at him differently if he wasn't a first round pick.

How Brady has used Kincaid as a blocker is kind of interesting. Brady has been getting him downfield to block guys on the second level in different formations and personnel groupings (extra lineman in particular), and honestly Kincaid has been doing a pretty good job at this - many times absolutely demolishing a secondary player pursuing Shakir, Cook (angry runs win), etc. It’s definitely part of the play design, but he’s certainly shown the “want to” needed to help others get extra yardage. I swear almost every time there’s a big run or YAC play Kincaid is near the ball carrier at some point blocking. It’s been fun watching him and these big WRs terrorize secondaries with their blocking, especially during this winning streak. 

 

I also think people forget that it usually takes TEs a long time to come into their own because of all the extra skill sets they need to hone. That’s part of why top TE prospects aren’t a bad choice in the first round; extra year on rookie contract, weapon/safety net for your QB, big pass catcher that can block LBers and secondary players. 

[eball]

Believe me, I want Kincaid playing, but I also think his presence has made people forget about Knox’s pass-catching ability.  That was an absolutely beautiful downfield play on Sunday and terrific over-the-shoulder hands catch.

 

If Kincaid can’t go on Sunday I look for Knox to have an impact.

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Ayjent said:

I think Kincaid and TEs in general might be more effective if there was more emphasis on getting designed routes down the seams when teams play 2 high safeties.  That also starts with the backs running effectively drawing up the LBs and being receiving threats in the short passing game.  These are things that the Bills have the perfect personnel to use, but haven’t quite been consistent in exposing.  They should be abusing teams with lbs that don’t have enough speed and yet the seem determined to run plays that are attacking the intermediate flats and not using their backs as much as they should in passing game.   It’s working but there is another level that they can reach to be more consistent.  Kincaid stats are a product of that in my opinion and he is getting targets but also a good share of those targets aren’t necessarily good throws or easy catches because the coverage is there or the throw is off due to pressure. 

These two things do not match. You would look more to the seam ball when a team is playing cover 1 or 3. C2 would have both safeties ON the seams, and when a play such as vertical routes is called vs this look, you have your seam player either:

 

1) bend to the middle of the field to split the safeties

 

2) clear out safeties and run them out of the intermediate range for anything coming underneath

 

It isn’t a great route combination for the TEs vs the two high look. It these circumstances you often see Allen throwing the boundary vert between the CB and deep half, or taking the check down if the flat player carries the boundary WR downfield.

 

I think your overall sentiment here is one that I’d love to know more about in their scheming for downfield passing attack. They continue to lack the consistent ability to stretch the field in structure without relying on Allen to create. There are many levels to this (design, personnel, defensive scheme) but they just seem completely content taking the short to intermediate routes and allowing those deeper options to essentially act as clear outs 

Edited November 13 by EmotionallyUnstable

[97bills]

I would love to see what Allen and our offense could accomplish with a veteran play caller. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

You guys are rough 😆

It’s gotta be hyperbole haha Knox isn’t anywhere near as good as Kincaid. 

[Beck Water]

23 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

In what area?  In blocking, Knox is night and day more consistent than Kincaid.

 

In terms of target vs reception, Knox has caught 10 of his 16 targets (62.5%), while Kincaid has caught 34 of his 59 targets (58%).

 

 

Reception % does not tell you the whole story here.  Kincaid is asked to run routes downfield.  He's respected enough as a receiver that defenses shift coverage towards him.   Kincaid is smooth and fluid in his routes and with his hands.

Yes, Knox is a better blocker, though Kincaid has improved.

Edited November 13 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, notpolian said:

I wouldn't say the team is better with Knox in the lineup.  But I think people expect more from Kincaid than he is going to deliver.  He can't outrun DBs.  He is not a big dude so he can't "box out" his way open and he is not good at blocking. 

 

Kincaid is 6'4", 240.  If a 6'4" 220 lb receiver like Nico Collins can box out or we hope a 6'3" 215 lb receiver like Coleman can learn to box out in the pros as he did in college, Kincaid should certainly be able to do it.

 

Kincaid is an effective blocker down field, at the second level on run plays.  He started out with "just get in the way" and is now actually blocking.

 

Kincaid is not effective as an in-line blocker, where Knox has learned to be, that much is true.

 

 

[JP51]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Believe me, I want Kincaid playing, but I also think his presence has made people forget about Knox’s pass-catching ability.  That was an absolutely beautiful downfield play on Sunday and terrific over-the-shoulder hands catch.

 

If Kincaid can’t go on Sunday I look for Knox to have an impact.

 

agreed he has proven himself capable 

[hondo in seattle]

16 hours ago, CaseyatBat said:

I dont see it with the "12 personnel" thing. Why on earth would teams with speedy WRs and RBs want to line up with 2 lumbering TEs. Like keeping your Ferraris in the garage and driving around in the 2005 Jeep Cherokees instead

 

The bills offense was at its best with Allen in the shotgun and 4 WRs.. (although these WRs now kinda suck)

 

 

 

I like an exciting passing attack with 4 wideouts too but you already explained why we don't see that more with the "kinda suck" remark.  I think 12 personnel has a place in the Bills offense.  Here's why...

 

You can run a variety of run and pass plays from 12.  You can keep Kincaid in tight or send him wide depending on the needs of the play.  You don't have to substitute to go into a run or pass formation.

 

Because of the flexibility of 12, the opposing DC doesn't know whether to go heavy and load the box, or go light and play the pass.  Often the D will send out bigger personnel to counter the possibility of run when facing 12, creating mismatches in the passing game.  

 

There's the old dictum that you should 'put your best 11 on the gridiron.'  Knox and Kincaid are both arguably among our best 11, particularly when we have injured wideouts.

 

While 12 is often considered a run formation, last year the Bills were 6th in pass EPA when using 12 personnel (and 8th in total EPA).

 

 

[ganesh]

37 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Kincaid is 6'4", 240.  If a 6'4" 220 lb receiver like Nico Collins can box out or we hope a 6'3" 215 lb receiver like Coleman can learn to box out in the pros as he did in college, Kincaid should certainly be able to do it.

 

Kincaid is an effective blocker down field, at the second level on run plays.  He started out with "just get in the way" and is now actually blocking.

 

Kincaid is not effective as an in-line blocker, where Knox has learned to be, that much is true.

 

 

Knox was a full time blocker at college 

[Billl]

20 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

LaPorta and Kincaid have almost identical stats this season this year. 

 

19 hours ago, Pete said:

LaPorta only has 25 catches this year

LaPorta has 32 targets on the year.  Kincaid has 59.  LaPorta still has more yards and touchdowns.

[Bockeye]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

 

LaPorta has 32 targets on the year.  Kincaid has 59.  LaPorta still has more yards and touchdowns.

Is this more a product of play design than the player?

 

hell - look at what MVS did after released.

[notpolian]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Kincaid is 6'4", 240.  If a 6'4" 220 lb receiver like Nico Collins can box out or we hope a 6'3" 215 lb receiver like Coleman can learn to box out in the pros as he did in college, Kincaid should certainly be able to do it.

 

Kincaid is an effective blocker down field, at the second level on run plays.  He started out with "just get in the way" and is now actually blocking.

 

Kincaid is not effective as an in-line blocker, where Knox has learned to be, that much is true.

 

 

You are right and I hope he becomes a more effective blocker.  I also admit I was lazy and didn't look up his height and weight.  He sure seems to play small for his size.  I guess the term I should have used is he doesn't play with power.  He strikes me as a finesse TE, though he does try to go through tackles for YAC.

 

Just an aside, but I also would have swore Brock Bowers was bigger than Kincaid but Bowers is actually 6'3".  I haven't seen Bowers play this year at all but he is leading the league in TE yards for a bad team.  I saw him a lot at Georgia and he was dominant. His 40 time is a bit faster than Kinkaid's (4.55 vs 4.71) fwiw.  He also is not a great blocker but was a big play guy in college with good hands.  Kincaid hasn't had many big plays this year IIRC.  Maybe not a totally fair comparison but they were the first TEs drafted two years in a row.

 

Anyway, I hope Kincaid can play this week and if not gets healthy ASAP.

[Artem Lipatov]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

LaPorta has 32 targets on the year.  Kincaid has 59.  LaPorta still has more yards and touchdowns.

LaPorta looks bigger and stronger than Kincaid. He can dominate DBs. He reminds Gronk and Kelce more than our guy from the same draft.

I hope Kincaid will develop but right now I would take LaPorta over him

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

 

LaPorta has 32 targets on the year.  Kincaid has 59.  LaPorta still has more yards and touchdowns.

and based on stats Goff is a more accurate passer than Josh, so is it an OC problem or a QB problem? As just last week Josh missed hitting a wide open Kincaid. I'm guessing that's our OC fault right? 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

 

LaPorta has 32 targets on the year.  Kincaid has 59.  LaPorta still has more yards and touchdowns.

Big shock- one purpose