Week 11 - Chiefs at Bills Game Week Thread

[boyst]

12 minutes ago, bills742 said:

Overrated

 

I just hope some of us can enjpy this game for what it should be - and we can all avoid refs, announcers glazing the players, and injuries. Just a good principled game where is fair.

[NewEra]

35 minutes ago, Einstein said:

For the conspiracy theorists

 

 

 

I think all Dan Mitchell content should be banned from this board

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Agree

The counter is the Bills have one win over a team with a winning record.  Chiefs have beaten 4 teams with winning records and one that is 0.500.  

We will know alot more about the Bills in the next 4 weeks.

Consequence of playing in the AFC east and against the AFC South.  Would also note that if Miami doesnt lose Tua they are almost certainly not a sub 500 team (they dont lose to Tenn and Colts).  We beat them with Tua so I do not discount that win so for the moment I would consider that to be wins over a winning team.  

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Agree

The counter is the Bills have one win over a team with a winning record.  Chiefs have beaten 4 teams with winning records and one that is 0.500.  

We will know alot more about the Bills in the next 4 weeks.

Well true but that Ravens game was an outlier. And our defense was a mess at LB. I feel like if we play them again we can get them. I think the difference is the Bills are killing teams. Not just sneaking by. I think our fast ball is the only one In the league close to the lions. When it’s rolling down hill we are a monster. Yes we haven’t beaten a ton of good teams but I think Miami is a lot better than their record. We got them twice at relatively full strength. We’ll see.

35 minutes ago, boyst said:

I just hope some of us can enjpy this game for what it should be - and we can all avoid refs, announcers glazing the players, and injuries. Just a good principled game where is fair.

I got a feeling in this atmosphere, we might get some of that Chiefs treatment for once. Maybe the refs give one back here and give KC a taste of their own medicine. I can see Mahomes and Kelce crying like babies as we get a few home calls for a change.

[SoonerBillsFan]

48 minutes ago, boyst said:

I just hope some of us can enjpy this game for what it should be - and we can all avoid refs, announcers glazing the players, and injuries. Just a good principled game where is fair.

Imagine if we had set Josh up better like Mahomes. 

[MiltonWaddams]

28 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Imagine if we had set Josh up better like Mahomes. 

Good lord. It’s not like they’ve not created a top 5 OL, drafted a top TE, traded for 2 different WR1’s, drafted a high level WR or a top 10 rb in the last 5 seasons…

[Straight Hucklebuck]

9 hours ago, syhuang said:

Greg Olsen - Year 2 - 574 yards, Year 3 - 612 yards

This might be your best argument for two reasons. 1) He went on to have multiple 1,000 yard seasons. 2) His yards/reception increased later in his career.

 

Shannon Sharpe - Year 2 - 322 yards, Year 3 - 640 yards

Reached his peak at age 25. 

 

Zack Ertz - Year 2 - 702 yards

His peak was 25-29, effectively a finished product by 25. Had one 1,000 yard season. 

 

Dallas Clark - Year 2 - 423 yards, Year 3 - 488 yards

Year 6 and 7 he popped, then he fell off. Year 2 and Year 3 are more characteristic of the seasons he mostly had. 

 

Tony Gonzalez - Year 2 - 621 yards

Settled into a rhythm by Year 3 (23 years old) 

 

Vernon Davis - Year 2 - 509 yards, Year 3 - 358 yards

This is not Dalton Kincaid. Vernon Davis was drafted 6th overall and ran a 4.38, benched 33 reps, had a 42" vertical. Career average yards/reception was 13.0, as a rookie he was 13.3. 

Heath Miller - Year 2 - 393 yards, Year 3 - 566 yards

This is a good comparison to Kincaid. Never topped 816 yards. Several years at ~35-45 ypg. 

Cole Kmet - Year 2 - 612 yards, Year 3 - 544 yards

Highest output is 42.3 yards per game. 

 

David Njoku - Year 2 - 639 yards

Year 2 was the second best year of his 8 year career. Also came into the league at 21. He's only 28 now, Kincaid is already 25. 

 

 

the point here is that year 2 receiving yards don’t define a tight end. Most Bills fans want to see Kincaid take off, but his current pace in year 2 isn’t an indicator of how good or how bad his career will be.

 

So how he does this season has zero correlation to how his career will go? I don't agree with that. 

 

Kincaid looks like he has 800-900 yards in him. But do I expect 1,300 yards and 13 yards/reception? No. Can he get to 11 ypc? I think so in his best years. 

 

It's been a steady diet of 10 ypc, 35-40 ypg across 26 games. He's on pace for 605 yards this year in 17 games. 

 

 

 

I disagreed with Joe Marino at the end of 2023 when he said he wanted Dalton Kincaid to lead the team in receiving targets. 

 

We've seen 10-games of the 2024 offense, when has this team leaned on Kincaid to be their best receiver? 

 

I think he's a good player, happy they drafted him, but the fit with Knox already here has always been muddy, so they have him in a role where he's slotted correctly - behind Coleman, Cooper and Shakir - picking up first downs as an outlet. 

 

That's my read on Kincaid - smooth athlete with the ball in his hands, has some wiggle, good feel for zones and pockets. Not exceptionally fast or powerful. 

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I think all Dan Mitchell content should be banned from this board

Never heard of this guy and as I was watching was wondering if he was being serious or it was some bit

[gordong]

Until the Bills prove that two week stretch when they lost was just an anomaly and they beat winning teams I'm not trusting this team enough to say they should win or even I expect them to win.  Especially with Keon out and possible Cooper and Kincaid, with Allen you almost always have a chance but as we saw against the raven's  not always and that defense is not good, the chiefs are. The tuff part of the schedule is here, you want to be a contender now it's time to put up or shut up (IMHO) 

Edited 8 hours ago by gordong

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Good lord. It’s not like they’ve not created a top 5 OL, drafted a top TE, traded for 2 different WR1’s, drafted a high level WR or a top 10 rb in the last 5 seasons…

Imagine if we had set Josh up like Sam Darnold.

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Smoot and Rousseau are going to be problems against Wanya Morris. Von Miller, who knows. He's probably good for a play.

 

Rousseau and Miller both play at their best from the right side of the offense so I'm sure how much of an advantage we'll have against Morris (or Suamataia if we're lucky enough to have him enter the game). The Broncos dominated the left side of their line last week so hopefully we can do the same. That is definitely the easiest path to stopping the Chiefs offense this year.

[Ray Stonada]

This is a game I am hopeful that we win, but I also thing the potential exists for us to get boat-raced.

 

The Chiefs haven't had much to play for in a lot of these matchups. Hard to get motivated for Denver when you're focused on a three-peat.

 

The Bills are a team that will motivate them, especially Mahomes (along with the Bengals and Texans). Finally a game that means something. And... they're underdogs.

 

Their pass game has major potential, with Hopkins, Kelce, JuJu, and Worthy. Hopkins and Kelce can find holes in zone coverage and if you clamp down, Worthy or JuJu can get deep. A lot will depend on how Mahomes plays.  Against the Bills, he might be fully dialed in. 

 

For us, I think we need a wrinkle. Maybe corner blitzes on D, and on offense a new running play which uses their tendencies. I also think there is major potential for Ray Davis to hurt them catching passes out of the backfield. 

[Dr. K]

Given the injuries to Cooper, Coleman, and Kincaid, I think the Bills are at a real disadvantage in this game and the Chiefs ought to be favored. 

[Steptide]

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

50 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Good lord. It’s not like they’ve not created a top 5 OL, drafted a top TE, traded for 2 different WR1’s, drafted a high level WR or a top 10 rb in the last 5 

All of that and we STILL can't get to, let alone win a superbowl. I wonder what the issue could be?

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Given the injuries to Cooper, Coleman, and Kincaid, I think the Bills are at a real disadvantage in this game and the Chiefs ought to be favored. 

the entire world but vegas thinks so. everyone is betting chiefs.

[Ray Stonada]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5917821/2024/11/14/nfl-week-11-picks-predictions-betting/

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Today’s hot topic on some radio show with people yelling: Are the Chiefs the worst 9-0 team ever? Kudos for blocking a field goal to win a game and having all these great intangibles, but how about just beating someone by two scores? They have done that once all season and their average margin of victory is six points. The Bills, meanwhile, don’t lose at home (4-0), might have more talent and their defense is playing pretty well. Greg Rousseau leads the NFL with 33 splash plays and eight tackles for a loss (non-sacks). This game will come down to which tight ends do more, as it’s a big liability for each defense. (And yeah, we didn’t mention the quarterbacks because they cancel each other out.)

The pick: Bills 

[boyst]

1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5917821/2024/11/14/nfl-week-11-picks-predictions-betting/

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Today’s hot topic on some radio show with people yelling: Are the Chiefs the worst 9-0 team ever? Kudos for blocking a field goal to win a game and having all these great intangibles, but how about just beating someone by two scores? They have done that once all season and their average margin of victory is six points. The Bills, meanwhile, don’t lose at home (4-0), might have more talent and their defense is playing pretty well. Greg Rousseau leads the NFL with 33 splash plays and eight tackles for a loss (non-sacks). This game will come down to which tight ends do more, as it’s a big liability for each defense. (And yeah, we didn’t mention the quarterbacks because they cancel each other out.)

The pick: Bills 

this crap annoys me because it feels like critics are picking the Bills with some hype and will celebrate when/if the Chiefs win by announcing just how amazing they are to squeak out another win, to pull off their best win of the season.

 

if the chiefs win by 1 or 100 the headlines are going to be ecstatic with just how great this overrated undefeated team is; and don't get me wrong, they're very good. they wouldn't beat themselves against their own 2020, 2021, or 2022 teams.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

I just hope some of us can enjpy this game for what it should be - and we can all avoid refs, announcers glazing the players, and injuries. Just a good principled game where is fair.

Yeah not happening. 

[colin]

we lose this game by getting eaten up underneath and the interior OL of KC feasting all day and allowing them to stay ahead of the sticks and not punt.

 

we win if we have positive results running the ball and lots of gainers going to backs, shakir, and TEs in places where we scheme up space.  a little magic from 17 as well.

 

achieving a positive result in either of the above will require our coaches to find some new wrinkles and the players to execute.  OL penalties have been killing us all year, but we've generally been so much better than the opposition it hasn't hurt us (killed us vs miami in buffalo, but we over came and there were some horrible calls and non calls).  kc plays hard and dirty, so we'll have to match that energy and still avoid the flags.

 

winning this game with all the guys hurt will be a huge confidence builder, and if we see them again in the post season but plus coleman, kinkiad, cooper (our three top picks on O skill positions!) along w carter and milano it's gonna be a potential all time showdown.  stacking wins at home is another huge confidence builder.