Week 11 - Chiefs at Bills Game Week Thread

[boyst]

Anyone been watching the lines? The last few weeks it has been Buffalo -1.5 to -1 some times. Yesterday I swear it was Cheifs -1. Today it's back up to Bills -2.5

 

That's after announcements made about Coleman, and unknowns about Cooper and Kincaid.

 

Did anyone else see the Cheifs as the favor yesterday?

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, boyst said:

Anyone been watching the lines? The last few weeks it has been Buffalo -1.5 to -1 some times. Yesterday I swear it was Cheifs -1. Today it's back up to Bills -2.5

 

That's after announcements made about Coleman, and unknowns about Cooper and Kincaid.

 

Did anyone else see the Cheifs as the favor yesterday?

 

Yesterday morning around 9am, Greeny reported on GetUp! that the Bills were favored by 2.5. Sunday night I saw Bills -1. Never saw Chiefs favored, but Im not looking that hard.

[2003Contenders]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

As someone who loves the Bills and is at this very moment wearing a "Just One Before I Die" sweatshirt, I hate myself for what I'm about to say.  

 

I know it was just one game, but I think the Ravens exposed us as paper lions.  We just don't have the roster to beat the league's best teams. 

 

This is only the second time this year that I've gone into a game feeling we were going to lose.  If we win, it'll be a much appreciated gift, but I'm not expecting it.  

If it makes you feel better, while the Ravens have the resources to expose the Bills' weaknesses, I'm not sure the Chiefs do.

 

The key thing that the Ravens do is RUN the ball on offense and STOP the run on defense. While the Chiefs' run defense is outstanding, 83 yards per game (3rd best in the NFL) and 3.65 yards per carry (2nd best), their own run game on offense is pretty bad. They do average 115 yards per game, which is middle-of-the-pack, but when you look more closely and realize that they are averaging over 30 carries per game (7th in the league) and just  3.8 yards per carry (3rd worst in the NFL), their running game does not scare me at all. True, they have been playing without I. Pacheco, who was just designated for return -- but (a la Milano) he is unlikely to suit up for the next couple of weeks.

 

I realize that the Chiefs are 9-0 for a reason. They are well coached, have a generational QB and an outstanding defense. They have also shown a crazy ability to eke out close games. From that perspective, they are certainly a tough match-up for anyone in the league. I just don't see them as a kryptonite kind of match-up for the Bills. For one thing, the Bills have been MUCH better in turnover differential than the Chiefs. Also, many of those close games for the Chiefs have come against teams that sit well below 0.500, while the Bills have been blowing those types of teams out.

 

I see this as a close game between two of the top teams in the NFL that can go either way.

[wjag]

We all know the Chiefs are due for a loss.  Might as well cash that check this week.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, 2003Contenders said:

If it makes you feel better, while the Ravens have the resources to expose the Bills' weaknesses, I'm not sure the Chiefs do.

 

The key thing that the Ravens do is RUN the ball on offense and STOP the run on defense. While the Chiefs' run defense is outstanding, 83 yards per game (3rd best in the NFL) and 3.65 yards per carry (2nd best), their own run game on offense is pretty bad. They do average 115 yards per game, which is middle-of-the-pack, but when you look more closely and realize that they are averaging over 30 carries per game (7th in the league) and just  3.8 yards per carry (3rd worst in the NFL), their running game does not scare me at all. True, they have been playing without I. Pacheco, who was just designated for return -- but (a la Milano) he is unlikely to suit up for the next couple of weeks.

 

I realize that the Chiefs are 9-0 for a reason. They are well coached, have a generational QB and an outstanding defense. They have also shown a crazy ability to eke out close games. From that perspective, they are certainly a tough match-up for anyone in the league. I just don't see them as a kryptonite kind of match-up for the Bills. For one thing, the Bills have been MUCH better in turnover differential than the Chiefs. Also, many of those close games for the Chiefs have come against teams that sit well below 0.500, while the Bills have been blowing those types of teams out.

 

I see this as a close game between two of the top teams in the NFL that can go either way.

 

I also think it will be close. Recent history between these teams would suggest that. I am guessing it will be similar to last year's playoff game with lead changes throughout. Just hope the Bills can be on the winning side this time.

[boyst]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yesterday morning around 9am, Greeny reported on GetUp! that the Bills were favored by 2.5. Sunday night I saw Bills -1. Never saw Chiefs favored, but Im not looking that hard.

I thought I was losing my mind but someone else in my office saw it with me. A 3 slide in one day is remarkable   to go chiefs -1 to +2.

[Jamie Nails]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

I thought I was losing my mind but someone else in my office saw it with me. A 3 slide in one day is remarkable   to go chiefs -1 to +2.

 

Line opened as Bills -1.5 on Bet MGM and has now moved to -2.5

[Sojourner]

8 minutes ago, wjag said:

We all know the Chiefs are due for a loss.  Might as well cash that check this week.

Good call Jag. I did this myself yesterday morning!

[Gregg]

8 minutes ago, wjag said:

We all know the Chiefs are due for a loss.  Might as well cash that check this week.

 

The game is on Nov 17th. Maybe that is a sign 17 will play lights out. We can only hope.

[Nephilim17]

Would love to see the Chiefs lose but with Coleman out, Cooper  and Kincaid hurt, I'm not feeling good about this. Hopefully Cooper plays, at the very least.

[RichRiderBills]

Call me crazy, I honestly think the Chiefs will not give us their best. The notion we will roll them in the season and lose in the playoffs has become a punchline w them. 

 

I don't think they are going to show us all they have. 

 

My thoughts are at home, reg season , the Bills will win. 

[Nephilim17]

4 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Call me crazy, I honestly think the Chiefs will not give us their best. The notion we will roll them in the season and lose in the playoffs has become a punchline w them. 

 

I don't think they are going to show us all they have. 

 

My thoughts are at home, reg season , the Bills will win. 

Scheme-wise, I could see Reid not showing the Bills much of what he'll do in the playoffs.

But I think they try to win every game and those evil ba$tards have their sights set on a perfect season and Championship. That would make me puke.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

I thought I was losing my mind but someone else in my office saw it with me. A 3 slide in one day is remarkable   to go chiefs -1 to +2.

I didn’t see this but I did hear about it. What’s more important is money on the Bills is why the line moved. A lot of public faith on the team this week. 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

PFR is free and super useful.  Opinions without data are just perceptions.  If were just gonna have a perception discussion i think that has little value and not why I come to this board.  We have in the past had good conversations based on data iirc.

 

My opinion aligns with what i see in the stats and game (confirmation bias can be real so careful), Josh is a little off throwing to him (relative to last year) but overall Josh has more success targeting Kincaid (hes so valuable on 2nd and long).  I think your perceiving something thats worse than it is and thats probably cause of the drop %.  

I couldn’t care less if people see my opinion as truth or perception.  It’s my opinion/perception (along with everyone I watch games with.  I’m sharing that opinion.   I was pretty transparent in saying I have no clue what the actual stats are-  with hopes that someone has them.  But no one has them as of yet.  
 

my perception is that Allen has thrown more off target passes and percentage of off target passes to Kincaid this year than to anyone else.  I’ll stick by that until proven wrong…..and it’s ok if no one agrees with me.  It really doesn’t matter that much

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Scheme-wise, I could see Reid not showing the Bills much of what he'll do in the playoffs.

But I think they try to win every game and those evil ba$tards have their sights set on a perfect season and Championship. That would make me puke.

 

It's tough to buy that any player doesn't give their all in certain games. But everyone also says the speed of the game increases in the playoffs. Players just push themselves further and faster. 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

Anyone been watching the lines? The last few weeks it has been Buffalo -1.5 to -1 some times. Yesterday I swear it was Cheifs -1. Today it's back up to Bills -2.5

 

That's after announcements made about Coleman, and unknowns about Cooper and Kincaid.

 

Did anyone else see the Cheifs as the favor yesterday?

All I know is…

 

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

You are the one that made the blanket statement. You can toss garbage and hope it sticks without providing concrete evidence

 

Otherwise it’s simply poop flinging without providing a reliable source to your statement and it’s simply an opinion and not fact . 

I didn’t hope anything stuck.  I just made my opinion known.  Doesn’t matter if anyone agrees with me or not.  I just wanted to see why you rolled your eyes- there were multiple things said in my post that you could’ve rolled your eyes about.  
 

It’s a message board-  90% of the posts are exactly that-  poop flinging.  I can have an opinion on something AND post about it without knowing it to be true or false.  If proven true or false, the conversation will take on new life.  Yet no one has any stats to prove either side-  so does that make me wrong?  No, it doesn’t.  

[Success]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Would love to see the Chiefs lose but with Coleman out, Cooper  and Kincaid hurt, I'm not feeling good about this. Hopefully Cooper plays, at the very least.

 

If Coleman, Cooper & Kincaid are all out - that will be rough. I know KC is missing some guys too, but I can't see our offense being too effective without at least one of those guys playing.

 

They can basically focus almost exclusively on Shakir at that point.

 

[Chicken Boo]

To not have this as a primetime game initially is beyond weird.  

[billieve420]

4 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Everyone has anxiety over our regular season wins not translating to the playoffs, but if we somehow beat these guys by 3tds and made their offense look bad…it’d go a long way to our playoff outlook. Like beating the ***** out of them now is going to have a lot more bearing on this year’s postseason then 3/4 years ago playoff losses

 

I am not putting a lot of stock either way W or L. Just show me we can compete with them at a high level and I can live with the outcome. End of the day none of it matters unless we can beat them come playoff time.