Week 11 - Chiefs at Bills Game Week Thread

[SoonerBillsFan]

34 minutes ago, boyst said:

Wasn't he literally missing from the planet? Like debt collectors had been searching for him for a long time and no one could find him?

Can he still suit up?

[boyst]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Can he still suit up?

if the creditors can't find him i don't have much faith that josh will be able to.

[Simon]

17 minutes ago, boyst said:

if the creditors can't find him i don't have much faith that josh will be able to.

 

It's probably harder to find a little beetch that always seemed to be hiding behind his teammates.

I'm kind of grossed out that they invited him back, especially this week. 

[RichRiderBills]

15 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Is it? 
 

My point was that he has not elevated his level of play THIS SEASON to where many people (myself included) expected him to be in year two. You reference his year one catches as a rebuttal to my point that he’s improved in year two, yet he isn’t on pace to meet that total in 2024. If that’s the stat you want to use, it is directly supporting my stance that he has not in fact been more impactful. 

 

However, I don’t think receptions is a fair way to assess his presence. We don’t judge a running back’s impact on a game solely by looking at how many carries they had. We must do the same with pass catchers.
 

His 73 catches came at less than 10 yards per reception in 2023, which is not a good number even for a tight end. Good rookie year, sure! I am not arguing that. Albeit a ton of quick game and check down work, he was making plays doing what he was asked. It left a lot to be desired. 

So looking again at year two, where many expected a much nore threatening presence from Kincaid, we haven’t really seen it. His current yards per reception is sitting at 10.5 (a respectable number- not the best for TEs but decent). Interestingly, his receptions are down, although he’s seen an increase in target share (16% to 20%) and is on pace to see more total targets than he saw last year. 

My take away here is that the Bills have continued to use Kincaid as a large part in their passing attack. He’s been asked to do more down the field, and in turn has seen some decrease in his overall catches and yards but a humble increase in yards per catch. But it hasn’t really amounted to the caliber of player we all hoped we’d be getting from a Round 1 talent. These numbers this year aren’t too far off from what we saw from Knox in 2021 and 2022. 
 

To be clear, I didn’t say he was a bum. He is nodoubt a good player. One area I’d like to see info on (maybe someone can provide it?) is the # of first downs he’s secured compared to last year. I’ve often seen 1D/ route run and 1D/ catch as good advanced indicators of efficiency. I’d like to see that compared from year one to year two, and how it stacks up to other pass catchers around the league. 
 

All of this doesn’t mean he is not the occasional playmaker, or won’t ascend to be a top 5 guy at the position, but to me there is no doubt he is not there yet.
 

I was only agreeing that his potential absence this week might not be as heavily felt in terms of a talent gap from TE1 to TE2 compared to other potential absences. 

 

Again, terrible take. Offensive TEs are judged on receptions, TDs, and blocking. Yes, a few ( a very few) have been lauded for high YPC , total yards, but this is so rare, highly dependent on the offense and system. 

 

I repeat, Kincaid had one of the best tookie seasons for a TE in NFL history. 

 

It took Kelce 3 years to get 74 catches.  It's just so silly. He's actually not even off his same pace much from last year. 

 

Some of the problem is just a few deep throws they've missed on.  A couple of these were Josh fault. 

 

Again, hit 1-2 of those deep throws and it makes his whole stat line look better. 

 

 

[bills742]

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

4 minutes ago, bills742 said:

 

Yay he doesn't hate being a Bill!!

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[HopelessNJBuffaloFan]

Chiefs 27, Bills 20. You know it is going to happen. The script is done. 

[Simon]

33 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

Holy *****, he turned black!

All y'all mf'ers are in for it now......

 

[Sierra Foothills]

7 hours ago, boyst said:

The Bill's Chiefs are being discussed on serious right now

 

Siriusly?

 

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Rousseau and Miller both play at their best from the right side of the offense so I'm sure how much of an advantage we'll have against Morris (or Suamataia if we're lucky enough to have him enter the game). The Broncos dominated the left side of their line last week so hopefully we can do the same. That is definitely the easiest path to stopping the Chiefs offense this year.

 

What you say is true however I believe Rousseau's strip/sack last week came when he was playing RDE.

 

4 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5917821/2024/11/14/nfl-week-11-picks-predictions-betting/

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Today’s hot topic on some radio show with people yelling: Are the Chiefs the worst 9-0 team ever? Kudos for blocking a field goal to win a game and having all these great intangibles, but how about just beating someone by two scores? They have done that once all season and their average margin of victory is six points. The Bills, meanwhile, don’t lose at home (4-0), might have more talent and their defense is playing pretty well. Greg Rousseau leads the NFL with 33 splash plays and eight tackles for a loss (non-sacks). This game will come down to which tight ends do more, as it’s a big liability for each defense. (And yeah, we didn’t mention the quarterbacks because they cancel each other out.)

The pick: Bills 

 

Thanks for posting. The Chiefs average margin of victory is 6 points. That's interesting.

 

3 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Success said:

That's great news.  In the clip I saw yesterday, he seemed to have no problem catching anything.  

 

If the wrist is the only issue, I can't see why he wouldn't be able to play given that.  But of course, I know nothing.

 

 

I think the main concern is that Cooper doesn't injure the wrist and make it worse.

 

Probably they're most concerned about all the handfighting that receivers have to do when being pressed.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

I agree.  Trying to find the source but heard the chiefs are pretty rough against spread.  If Kincaid is out this needs to be 11 personnel game.  LB corp for KC is deep  and I would much rather they have to put another CB on the field.  

McDuffie on Shakir gonna be a real tough matchup though.  Even though KC has been real solid against the run, I think we’re going to need to make the extra effort to get the run game going against their will.  Limit the pressure that Spags can put on an offense and possible turnovers they can cause.  O-Line needs to show up and be ready to battle in the trenches.

[Simon]

6 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Probably they're most concerned about all the handfighting that receivers have to do when being pressed.

 

Exactly.

Not to mention that every Chiefs DB is going to be hacking the shlitz out of it every time he extends it, and ripping at it when he doesn't.

[bills742]

 

[macofniagara]

4 hours ago, Steptide said:

 

Why are they eye to eye here?  Kermit standing on a stool?

[Sojourner]

Just now, bills742 said:

 

So all I’m seeing is people speculating Coop isn’t playing whilst he himself believes there’s a chance to play. 
 

Friday I think he remains limited on participation putting him as a game time decision. Got a feeling he plays. 

[No_Matter_What]

10 minutes ago, bills742 said:

 

Is it me or somehow nobody here talks about Spencer Brown trending towards not playing on Sunday?

 

If he doesn't play, I guess that means Van Demark starts and Gouriage is elevated.

 

 

[TBBills Fan]

[YattaOkasan]

22 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

McDuffie on Shakir gonna be a real tough matchup though.  Even though KC has been real solid against the run, I think we’re going to need to make the extra effort to get the run game going against their will.  Limit the pressure that Spags can put on an offense and possible turnovers they can cause.  O-Line needs to show up and be ready to battle in the trenches.

agree McDuffie on Shakir could be rough, but I think having an extra OL on the field is the preference for KC defense.  OL will def need to show up cause my plan requires them having 5 man protection which is tough and your plan has them run which requires them to get push in the run game.  KC defense is def a tough nut to crack, and i think running into the best run defense in the league is not wise.    

[Simon]

11 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Is it me or somehow nobody here talks about Spencer Brown trending towards not playing on Sunday?

 

 

I'd guess there is some relativism at work.

They've played games this year with the entire starting LB corps out.

They played last week without a single legitimate NFL outside receiver dressed.

We've played the Chiefs in the playoffs with no less than 6 defensive starters hurt.

Losing one starter on the OLine probably seems like it's barely worth a mention at this point. 🤷‍♂️