Week 11 - Chiefs at Bills Game Week Thread

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Well, Bills Mafia better do a great job with CBS to ensure the difference in calls are driven home. Sunday is their one certified golden opportunity with CBS camping out. 
 

And show pics of that KC Clown Taylor, who gets away with False Starting EVERY play! 

Oh I'm definitely not denying the chiefs don't get calls, cause they absolutely do and you're right there. I don't think I see a team benefit more from defensive holding than them.

 

But let's not pretend Josh doesn't get calls, as I believe he leads the NFL in roughing the passer calls against him since entering the league in 2018

[DJB]

40 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m good.  Show me that I’m wrong.

 

i made a statement and i stand by it.  It’s been pretty obvious to the group that I watch every game with.  It’s been a running joke this season.  
 

Not sure how this isn’t apparent to everyone that’s watched every game this season

So you can’t back it up. 
 

Got it 

[Yobogoya!]

16 minutes ago, henry jones said:

Hopefully Brady gets his head out of his a$$ and comes up with a better first half game plan.  Yeah, sure, we're down a couple receivers, but be creative and figure out how to get guys open.  I mean, KC had crap for receivers last year.  Kelce is usually doubled and they still find ways to get him as wide open as the Mexican/US border!!

Our “easy” scripted plays to start the game have looked anything but easy for most of the year, especially the last couple weeks. We’ve come out the gate looking flat and/or confused. 
 

That’s not a great recipe for success in the big games. It would go a long way towards confidence in Brady to see that get turned around. 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, DJB said:

So you can’t back it up. 
 

Got it 

As I said in my original reply to you….. 

 

Just as you can’t back up yours. 
 

got it

[PoundingDog]

Overall, who has the better team?

 

On defense, there is no question the Chiefs are better.

 

On defense, it's a little complicated. I'll give Mahomes the edge over Allen. O-Line is close but the Bills might be a bit better. RB wise Bills are much better whereas TE is the opposite. WR Corp, with all the injuries on both side, we might be better if Cooper plays. So overall the Bills O is a bit better.

 

Thus we all expect a close game and the matchup is such as well. The Bills are slightly favored because we are at home. 

 

In my mind, the Bills running attack holds the key. Spagnuolo is famous for confusing Allen in the past and Allen had to resort to his running and super-man effort to fight thru. This year, Allen has Cook who is playing at Pro-ball level in my opinion at his disposal. If Allen makes the right decisions at LOS, we can really do a job on the Chiefs D. Remember all those blitzes, changing picture stuff go out of the window if you cannot stop the run.  

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think Andy just "plays with his food" every time we face them in the regular season.  Then when we meet in the playoffs we get the full Reid experience. 

 

 

I don't think Reid is quite that smart........he's proven to be a dunce over and over in his career in matchups against Belichick and nobody has blown 2 20 point playoff leads except Reid.  But having employed McDermott for a long time(and firing him) he has that 10K' view of how McDermott thinks defense.   McD doesn't quite have that same edge because he was focused on the defensive side of the ball with the Eagles.  So once McD has shown his hand in that regular season game and the Chiefs get accustomed to the Bills personnel.........it's been easy for Reid to guess how McD will approach the next matchup.      

[26TrapDraw]

On 11/10/2024 at 4:13 PM, BillsFan619 said:

Time to take down the Chiefs for the fourth regular season in a row and give them their first loss of the season.

 

Go crazy, Bills Mafia! Go Bills!!

 

 

 

Josh how do you feel about this game?

“let’s just get out there and put one foot in front of the other and remember that wherever you go, there you are.”

 

enough with the canned response and fear of bulletin board material!

how about “ we are going to go out there and knock the chiefs dick in the dirt. They are coming to our house with their completely lucky record and play a real team and we are gonna take a giant s@&$ on them. Matter of fact I may go out and Fight Patrick Mahomes before the game and kick him in the nuts “

[NewEra]

 

[Dr. K]

Bills better not look past the Chiefs—this is a classic Trap game.

[YattaOkasan]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

As I said in my original reply to you….. 

 

Just as you can’t back up yours. 
 

got it

Coming with a position and asking people to engage you to prove you wrong is sorta the definition of trolling.  i say this cause you usually dont troll.  i think youre just being lazy.  the data is pretty easy to find on PFR so i did. 

 

Kincaid has catch rates of 80% and 57% versus Josh completion % of 66% and 63%.  Kincaid does have better success rate when targeted than Josh averages.  For ADOT Kincaid is below Josh average each year but did increase from 6.0 to 7.2 this year (so could be some of the completion % drop).  

 

What other metrics would you use to support your hypothesis (again sorta why YOU need to come with some data when making a stance).  I think overall theres a only a little bit to support this thought because of the lower completion % this year but I also think its a pretty small sample size (not helped by Kincaid 10% drop rate which would put completion % about where I would expect it to be).  Youre a better poster than this to just ask for people to refute your hot take.  Where is the "debate me " meme. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm    

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KincDa00.htm

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Coming with a position and asking people to engage you to prove you wrong is sorta the definition of trolling.  i say this cause you usually dont troll.  i think youre just being lazy.  the data is pretty easy to find on PFR so i did. 

 

Kincaid has catch rates of 80% and 57% versus Josh completion % of 66% and 63%.  Kincaid does have better success rate when targeted than Josh averages.  For ADOT Kincaid is below Josh average each year but did increase from 6.0 to 7.2 this year (so could be some of the completion % drop).  

 

What other metrics would you use to support your hypothesis (again sorta why YOU need to come with some data when making a stance).  I think overall theres a only a little bit to support this thought because of the lower completion % this year but I also think its a pretty small sample size (not helped by Kincaid 10% drop rate which would put completion % about where I would expect it to be).  Youre a better poster than this to just ask for people to refute your hot take.  Where is the "debate me " meme. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm    

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KincDa00.htm

He eye rolled my post so I was asking for clarification on what he was eye rolling.  It could’ve been an eye roll that Kincaid was injured and might miss times.  All I did was ask him if he thought Kincaid wasn’t the recipient of more errant throws compared to the rest.  
 

I looked for a stat, couldn’t find one.  I’m not going to spend money in order to prove myself correct.  I don’t feel the need to back up every opinion that I have by paying for stats.  I think it’s pretty obvious that Kincaid has been on the 💩 end of the pass pass stick when compared to others.  
 

do you watch the games an have an opinion on this?  I don’t need stats-  just your opinion. I also don’t view this as a “hot take”-  seems obvious to me

 

edit:  if someone has access to this stat, please post.  
 

Edited November 12 by NewEra

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, NewEra said:

He eye rolled my post so I was asking for clarification on what he was eye rolling.  It could’ve been an eye roll that Kincaid was injured and might miss times.  All I did was ask him if he thought Kincaid wasn’t the recipient of more errant throws compared to the rest.  
 

I looked for a stat, couldn’t find one.  I’m not going to spend money in order to prove myself correct.  I don’t feel the need to back up every opinion that I have by paying for stats.  I think it’s pretty obvious that Kincaid has been on the 💩 end of the pass pass stick when compared to others.  
 

do you watch the games an have an opinion on this?  I don’t need stats-  just your opinion

PFR is free and super useful.  Opinions without data are just perceptions.  If were just gonna have a perception discussion i think that has little value and not why I come to this board.  We have in the past had good conversations based on data iirc.

 

My opinion aligns with what i see in the stats and game (confirmation bias can be real so careful), Josh is a little off throwing to him (relative to last year) but overall Josh has more success targeting Kincaid (hes so valuable on 2nd and long).  I think your perceiving something thats worse than it is and thats probably cause of the drop %.  

[Rocky Landing]

11 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Coming with a position and asking people to engage you to prove you wrong is sorta the definition of trolling.  i say this cause you usually dont troll.  i think youre just being lazy.  the data is pretty easy to find on PFR so i did. 

 

Kincaid has catch rates of 80% and 57% versus Josh completion % of 66% and 63%.  Kincaid does have better success rate when targeted than Josh averages.  For ADOT Kincaid is below Josh average each year but did increase from 6.0 to 7.2 this year (so could be some of the completion % drop).  

 

What other metrics would you use to support your hypothesis (again sorta why YOU need to come with some data when making a stance).  I think overall theres a only a little bit to support this thought because of the lower completion % this year but I also think its a pretty small sample size (not helped by Kincaid 10% drop rate which would put completion % about where I would expect it to be).  Youre a better poster than this to just ask for people to refute your hot take.  Where is the "debate me " meme. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm    

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KincDa00.htm

I'm actually in agreement with @NewEra here. And I don't think just their stat lines are all that informative. I've noticed that Kincaid often catches balls behind him, and I've wondered it they really have the chemistry just yet. Kincaid has great hands, but he doesn't have great footwork, and I feel like Allen doesn't always have the timing of the throw quite right. But, I haven't really thought about it all that much, so I don't have much to base my opinion on.

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Rocky Landing said:

I'm actually in agreement with @NewEra here. And I don't think just their stat lines are all that informative. I've noticed that Kincaid often catches balls behind him, and I've wondered it they really have the chemistry just yet. Kincaid has great hands, but he doesn't have great footwork, and I feel like Allen doesn't always have the timing of the throw quite right. But, I haven't really thought about it all that much, so I don't have much to base my opinion on.

There would be stats for this (they are proprietary).  I think hes throwing to him less efficiently than last year which is warping the perception.  His throws to him are more successful than Josh's throws on average.  Getting 80% of 2nd and long is SUPER valuable and something we sorely lacked since Beasley has left.  

[Mark Vader]

3 hours ago, Nineforty said:

I agree with almost everything said except I think their remaining schedule is about equal to ours, in terms of difficulty. 

 

I also think people are overrating the difficulty of our remaining schedule. SF is not what we thought they were. And I feel too many are giving LAR undue credit based on their past success. 

 

Yes the pedigree of some still scares me, but their records are their records at this point. 

 

 

The game against the Lions will be big. Fans seem to be overlooking that game.

[Nineforty]

9 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

The game against the Lions will be big. Fans seem to be overlooking that game.

That looks to be the toughest opponent on either teams remaining schedule, for sure. 

 

(Not counting the game between the bills and chiefs)

Edited November 12 by Nineforty

[Mango]

19 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I mean I get the mentality. Beating the Chiefs in the regular season does nothing and what matters most is having everyone ready to go in the Divisional Round. 

 

But I don't get the "oh we can't catch up with the Chiefs" mentality. If the Bills win, the toughest team left on the schedule is the Lions are currently the only team two games or better over .500, and also the Niners flying to the East Coast after the Bills bye week. It's entirely possible for the Bills to end the season at 14-3 or 13-4.

 

Meanwhile the Chiefs end the season playing the Steelers, Texans and a road Broncos game where Denver might be playing to get into the playoffs.

 

If Cooper can go I think we can make due for a game.

 

It has nothing to do with the "Oh we can't catch up with the Chiefs". 

I just don't think it matters all that much if we do. 

What does matter more to me is being healthy in January and I would rather lose this game, keep everybody healthy, and keep playing our cards close to the vest. If we are missing all of our best pass catchers this game we will likely have to reveal every possible wrinkle in both our offensive and defensive playbooks. I would rather keep it simple, keep it healthy, and move on. 

I am certainly not advocating a loss, but I also am not sure I view this as a "win at all costs" kind of game either. 

That said, if we can beat them with our practice squad receivers that wouldn't be such a bad thing either...

 

[hondo in seattle]

As someone who loves the Bills and is at this very moment wearing a "Just One Before I Die" sweatshirt, I hate myself for what I'm about to say.  

 

I know it was just one game, but I think the Ravens exposed us as paper lions.  We just don't have the roster to beat the league's best teams. 

 

This is only the second time this year that I've gone into a game feeling we were going to lose.  If we win, it'll be a much appreciated gift, but I'm not expecting it.  

[DJB]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

As I said in my original reply to you….. 

 

Just as you can’t back up yours. 
 

got it

You are the one that made the blanket statement. You can toss garbage and hope it sticks without providing concrete evidence

 

Otherwise it’s simply poop flinging without providing a reliable source to your statement and it’s simply an opinion and not fact . 

Edited November 12 by DJB

[Johnnycage46]

37 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

The game against the Lions will be big. Fans seem to be overlooking that game.

For me personally, if we beat KC, I am "ok" with 2 of the 3 NFC games remaining being losses (obviously want wins though)...as long as we beat NE x2 and Jets. I kind of have the Lions penciled as a loss with a win being a bonus.