What to do for Edge Rusher?

[TheBeaneBandit]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Sign Khalil Mack and Koonce.   Get Dolac in the draft of UDFA.   That would be 6 UB Bulls on defense?  

I like the Koonce idea. If fully recovered he could really compliment Groot nicely.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I like this idea a lot. Because like you said the Bills probably gotta throw in some later round picks with one of their seconds to move up to ensure one of the "more of a sure thing" at 1tech. I've also already strongly suspect the 1st rounder could be CB so Elam leaving doesn't hurt my feelings whatsoever 😂

 

 

Yeah I've been doing mock drafts for months and the DT's in this class just keep moving up the boards in the opinions of most.   To the point where despite the depth it feels like it's hit or miss if there is going to be value there, in the form of immediate contribution, late in round 2.   If it were a better draft the depth in the class might go into round 4 but in weak drafts teams aren't as likely to reach past those guys for needs.   There doesn't appear to be much help at DT in free agency either.   It would be a great year from the Bills perspective to swing a Myles Garrett trade for the Bills 25' and 26' #1 picks.........but from the Browns perspective the value of that 25' #1 might not be appealing.  Unless they decide they are in on Joe Milroe and he's still on the board when the Bills pick comes up.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I haven't watched much college ball this year, but I do like Kenneth Grant from Michigan. IDL. Good burst.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I like the Koonce idea. If fully recovered he could really compliment Groot nicely.

 

I'm not sure the Bills would be that interested in Koonce.   A lot of his production when he broke out came out of wide 9 type fronts that the Bills don't employ much.    They like tighter splits with big edge setting DE's because they want to protect the lighter, quick LB's rather than funnel the run into the LB's like Schwartz did when he ran wide 9 in Buffalo.   Von Miller was an exception because he can rush from any split and be good against the run.  Khalil Mack has proven that he would be an exception as well.   Javon Solomon is also smaller like Koonce but I think that was just a value selection even though he doesn't really fit their type.   He's probably going to have to find his inner James Harrison in the coming seasons to get snaps ahead of an edge setter in McD's defense.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Sign Khalil Mack and Koonce.   Get Dolac in the draft of UDFA.   That would be 6 UB Bulls on defense?  

Koonce is substantially younger and more project-able as a 8-10 sacks/ year guy. We would have to probably outbid the Raiders & NE.  Mack is basically an older version of AJE who might give you 5-6 sacks?  After 2023, Malcolm's ceiling looks pretty high. Von will likely be gone this offseason and AJ the next offseason.  The other available 2025 pass rushers like Reddick, Young, Sweat, Mack, Browning just don’t scream sleeper FA acquisition.  Odeyingbo maybe??  Koonce just stands out as a great value compliment to Rousseau. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm not sure the Bills would be that interested in Koonce.   A lot of his production when he broke out came out of wide 9 type fronts that the Bills don't employ much.    They like tighter splits with big edge setting DE's because they want to protect the lighter, quick LB's rather than funnel the run into the LB's like Schwartz did when he ran wide 9 in Buffalo.   Von Miller was an exception because he can rush from any split and be good against the run.  Khalil Mack has proven that he would be an exception as well.   Javon Solomon is also smaller like Koonce but I think that was just a value selection even though he doesn't really fit their type.   He's probably going to have to find his inner James Harrison in the coming seasons to get snaps ahead of an edge setter in McD's defense.  

Maybe it's time to get some slightly larger linebackers?

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Koonce is substantially younger and more project-able as a 8-10 sacks/ year guy. We would have to probably outbid the Raiders & NE.  Mack is basically an older version of AJE who might give you 5-6 sacks?  After 2023, Malcolm's ceiling looks pretty high. Von will likely be gone this offseason and AJ the next offseason.  The other available 2025 pass rushers like Reddick, Young, Sweat, Mack, Browning just don’t scream sleeper FA acquisition.  Odeyingbo maybe??  Koonce just stands out as a great value compliment to Rousseau. 

 

Like I said, we don't know how Koonce would project as a very undersized DE in a very different system.  

 

Khalil Mack and AJ Epenesa are not comps.

 

Despite being the physical prototype that the Bills want in an edge,  Epenesa is a liability against the run.  In that context of run indifference his inability to generate even more pass rush/sacks is disappointing.  

 

Mack is maybe the best edge run defender in the NFL.   Certainly one of the very best(I personally think Rousseau is the best).   I don't expect him to ever get up to 17 sacks again like in 2023 but I'd like to see what he could do in that regard while playing opposite an offense that blows out opponents as frequently as the Bills do.   I don't see him commanding a really big contract and it would make sense to chase a ring in a division that doesn't include a QB like Mahomes.  And the UB ties etc..  Koonce has those ties too but he had one good season and missed all of last season to a knee injury.   Mack played 16 games and put up 2 sacks against CJ Stroud Saturday.   

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Maybe it's time to get some slightly larger linebackers?

 

Tremaine could be back on the market in March?   I mean, I hear you but it might just prove to be change for the sake of change.   In the NFL pretty much everyone is vulnerable in one way or another at LB right now.   Denver allowed the second fewest yards per play all season and had the most sacks.   How do you beat that on paper?  Well, the Bills hung about 500 yards on them.......pretty evenly distributed between air and ground......and they needed some favorable officiating of their grabby coverage or that figure and the 31-7 score might have been worse.

 

Ideally you want to find a way to get more impact from the front 4 in the system you have.   

[LABILLBACKER]

I guess I'm a little naive and looking at things one dimensionally.  We completely agree on AJE's flaws. And I definitely appreciate Khalil's run setting capabilities.  I'm just tired of settling for 5-8 sack per year guys. I just think Koonce is ready to bust out beyond his 2023 numbers. I'd prefer trading for Myles but he's costing an arm and several legs.  Groot can't do it alone, as Von and Epenesa's days are numbered.  Maybe Sawyer can be had in the 2nd?

Edited Friday at 02:32 AM by LABILLBACKER

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I guess I'm a little naive and looking at things one dimensionally.  We completely agree on AJE's flaws. And I definitely appreciate Khalil's run setting capabilities.  I'm just tired of settling for 5-8 sack per year guys. I just think Koonce is ready to bust out beyond his 2023 numbers. I'd prefer trading for Myles but he's costing an arm and several legs.  Groot can't do it alone, as Von and Epenesa's days are numbered.  Maybe Sawyer can be had in the 2nd?

 

Yeah they don't get sacks, and those negative plays matter.   We all thought McD's sack success in Carolina would carry over but there has been an influx of mobile QB's since he became Bills HC and it's clear they need really special talents to put up sacks in this system now.  That's where getting a star like Garrett would be ideal because he doesn't need space to disrupt things.  Von's first season in Buffalo he was that guy.

 

But they are pretty decent against running QB's because of their system up front.   They really hemmed in Bo Nix and that dude can fly.   When they started chasing sacks at the end of that game Bills fans got to see how good Nix is as a runner.   They've had success against Lamar too so I'm optimistic this weekend.   When you have guys like Lamar, Jayden Daniels and Box Nix running over 20 mph and creating big plays with their feet I think it helps to tighten up those splits and contain.   Against Stafford and Goff it would be nice to have more "get home" from the rush.   Against Mahomes, ideally you have both.

[Wizard]

Edge Rusher is a priority after the season. Get rid of Miller and let Epenesa walk. 3 year deal for Rousseau at top 10-12 DE money but not higher than that.

 

First 3 picks probably need to from the DE/DT/WR spot.

 

Rest of draft: depth at CB/Safety, a versatile backup OL to grow, and BPA!

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I've been doing mock drafts for months and the DT's in this class just keep moving up the boards in the opinions of most.   To the point where despite the depth it feels like it's hit or miss if there is going to be value there, in the form of immediate contribution, late in round 2.   If it were a better draft the depth in the class might go into round 4 but in weak drafts teams aren't as likely to reach past those guys for needs.   There doesn't appear to be much help at DT in free agency either.   It would be a great year from the Bills perspective to swing a Myles Garrett trade for the Bills 25' and 26' #1 picks.........but from the Browns perspective the value of that 25' #1 might not be appealing.  Unless they decide they are in on Joe Milroe and he's still on the board when the Bills pick comes up.

 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I guess I'm a little naive and looking at things one dimensionally.  We completely agree on AJE's flaws. And I definitely appreciate Khalil's run setting capabilities.  I'm just tired of settling for 5-8 sack per year guys. I just think Koonce is ready to bust out beyond his 2023 numbers. I'd prefer trading for Myles but he's costing an arm and several legs.  Groot can't do it alone, as Von and Epenesa's days are numbered.  Maybe Sawyer can be had in the 2nd?

Im all in for the idea of an established player a la Myles Garret move but I would be stunned if Beane pulled the trigger on something like this. 
 

I really wouldn’t mind the RD 1 picks in exchange, especially if it’s a draft day move. Those always feel like you’re getting more for a pick there is an immediate exchange of assets instead of a future loss.

 

I do question what the long term plan would be in this scenario. He has two years left on his current deal, and at 30 years old next season he isn’t exactly a spring chicken. It’d almost certainly benefit both parties to sign an immediate extension of an additional year, maybe two…but the money and age would definitely be cause for concern on my end. 
 

If you’re making a move like that, I am guessing it’s because we weren’t able to bring home the Lombardi this year and Beane is pushing all his chips to the table. 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/10/2024 at 4:01 AM, ToGoGo said:

Step 1 is getting rid of Von and his salary. Thank you for your service but we need to move on in 2025. 
 

There is a possibility that Rousseau breaks out further on the pass rush side. He came out raw and is now a very solid starter that is elite against the rush. 1-2 more years and he can be an all around star. 
 

If he stays where he is, then I think you need to trade up to the early or mid first round to get our guy if we have one. Regardless, we should be on the lookout for late 1st, 2nd-4th round guys with elite potential that are raw. 
 

Otherwise, we need to go trade or free agency for a solid although expensive starter while hoping that Epenesa or more likely Solomon can make a surprising leap. 

 

 

With $15.4M in dead cap, cutting Von saves us about $2M. 

 

If he's still our best pass rusher, which appears possible, Von may well be here another year, particularly if he goes along with some kind of renegotiation. 

 

He could easily be gone - he's old - but it's still not a foregone conclusion.

 

Wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them go DL in the first, if the right guy is available at the right pick.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

32 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Im all in for the idea of an established player a la Myles Garret move but I would be stunned if Beane pulled the trigger on something like this. 
 

I really wouldn’t mind the RD 1 picks in exchange, especially if it’s a draft day move. Those always feel like you’re getting more for a pick there is an immediate exchange of assets instead of a future loss.

 

I do question what the long term plan would be in this scenario. He has two years left on his current deal, and at 30 years old next season he isn’t exactly a spring chicken. It’d almost certainly benefit both parties to sign an immediate extension of an additional year, maybe two…but the money and age would definitely be cause for concern on my end. 
 

If you’re making a move like that, I am guessing it’s because we weren’t able to bring home the Lombardi this year and Beane is pushing all his chips to the table. 

 

 

 

 

 

Garrett is arguably the best defensive lineman in the NFL.   His streak of 14 or more sack seasons is literally unprecedented.  And his goal is to catch Bruce Smith.  Maybe he falls off a cliff soon or maybe he plays lights out for another 5+ years.  

 

I wouldn't be surprised by the move, even after a SB win, because the next few years are the prime of Josh Allen.   This is their best chance to win SB's.  That's not to say Josh can't be great in his mid-30's and beyond but right now he is a friggin' machine.   "Them picks"  are more valuable when you need a deeper roster around Allen and want to truly reset your cap.  Like what the Rams did with Stafford.   Stafford isn't the force of nature he was from 2015-2021, commencing with that 41 TD season and a SB win.  But they have a punchers chance still with him pushing 37 despite not having a first round pick from 2017-2023.   

 

I'd also add that the Bills are trying to sell PSL's to a new stadium in 2026.   A SB win will help greatly but the additional promise of more to come is a huge selling point.   When the Yankees got their new stadium they made the mistake of sandwiching that between missing the playoffs for the first time in like 15 years and then winning the WS the season the stadium opened.   The promise is the allure.   Bills fans who haven't experienced a title of any kind will hopefully find out winning a title is fun but it is not what many think it is.  Which is replacing nothing with something.  It comes at it's own expense.  Took the Yanks years to sell out all the premium seats after-the-fact.   A SB win and then a Myles Garrett acquisition, promising another level of greatness perhaps, would probably close the most deals before opening day of 2026 and that is the end game financially.

Edited Friday at 04:07 AM by BADOLBILZ

[BillsShredder83]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Like I said, we don't know how Koonce would project as a very undersized DE in a very different system.  

 

Khalil Mack and AJ Epenesa are not comps.

 

Despite being the physical prototype that the Bills want in an edge,  Epenesa is a liability against the run.  In that context of run indifference his inability to generate even more pass rush/sacks is disappointing.  

 

Mack is maybe the best edge run defender in the NFL.   Certainly one of the very best(I personally think Rousseau is the best).   I don't expect him to ever get up to 17 sacks again like in 2023 but I'd like to see what he could do in that regard while playing opposite an offense that blows out opponents as frequently as the Bills do.   I don't see him commanding a really big contract and it would make sense to chase a ring in a division that doesn't include a QB like Mahomes.  And the UB ties etc..  Koonce has those ties too but he had one good season and missed all of last season to a knee injury.   Mack played 16 games and put up 2 sacks against CJ Stroud Saturday.   

Is he though?  He was coming out.... but we put him on that strange calista flockhart diet.  Seems too small now and either gets washed out easily, or takes a 180degree loop path to the QB, taking too long and losing contain. His entire tenure here has been strange

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Is he though?  He was coming out.... but we put him on that strange calista flockhart diet.  Seems too small now and either gets washed out easily, or takes a 180degree loop path to the QB, taking too long and losing contain. His entire tenure here has been strange

 

I think he is talking more about the length, especially the freakishly long arms. 

[JP51]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah they don't get sacks, and those negative plays matter.   We all thought McD's sack success in Carolina would carry over but there has been an influx of mobile QB's since he became Bills HC and it's clear they need really special talents to put up sacks in this system now.  That's where getting a star like Garrett would be ideal because he doesn't need space to disrupt things.  Von's first season in Buffalo he was that guy.

 

But they are pretty decent against running QB's because of their system up front.   They really hemmed in Bo Nix and that dude can fly.   When they started chasing sacks at the end of that game Bills fans got to see how good Nix is as a runner.   They've had success against Lamar too so I'm optimistic this weekend.   When you have guys like Lamar, Jayden Daniels and Box Nix running over 20 mph and creating big plays with their feet I think it helps to tighten up those splits and contain.   Against Stafford and Goff it would be nice to have more "get home" from the rush.   Against Mahomes, ideally you have both.

I dont know how you get a Garrett or Parsons etc... without breaking the bank at the cost of other players and what capital it would take... but I will say this.. and said it before... The Bills Superbowl teams had Bruce Smith... not that you will ever replicate him... but I do firmly believe that you need a Defensive player at the level other teams have to game plan around... I do not believe we have that today... Von I think was supposed to be that guy on a hope he could continue at his age... that worked out only fairly well... for a bit.. but I do think getting a player like that is critical for us. Lets hope our Defense as it stands can pull it off...  

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Is he though?  He was coming out.... but we put him on that strange calista flockhart diet.  Seems too small now and either gets washed out easily, or takes a 180degree loop path to the QB, taking too long and losing contain. His entire tenure here has been strange

 

 

Yeah he has great height and long arms and he's not light for an NFL DE.    I really expected him to become a 10 sack guy this season.  On the hoof, he looks he part.   He just isn't consistent enough to force the Bills to give him more snaps.   I think there is another level of effort to be tapped into there.   Having his walk year hit after playing less than 50% of the snaps in games he played might have contributed to him re-upping with a bridge deal and maybe not being quite as motivated as he could be.   Not saying he's dogging but walk years just raise the intensity for many players.   Learning how to regularly reach your max effort is harder than maintaining it afterward, IMO.  Maybe he gets motivated next year and takes his game up to the next level.   Hard to get 10 sacks playing 40-55% of snaps and coming off the field for Von on 3rd downs though.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I’d also add that the Bills are trying to sell PSL's to a new stadium in 2026.   A SB win will help greatly but the additional promise of more to come is a huge selling point.   When the Yankees got their new stadium they made the mistake of sandwiching that between missing the playoffs for the first time in like 15 years and then winning the WS the season the stadium opened.   The promise is the allure.   Bills fans who haven't experienced a title of any kind will hopefully find out winning a title is fun but it is not what many think it is.  Which is replacing nothing with something.  It comes at it's own expense.  Took the Yanks years to sell out all the premium seats after-the-fact.   A SB win and then a Myles Garrett acquisition, promising another level of greatness perhaps, would probably close the most deals before opening day of 2026 and that is the end game financially.

Maybe I’m naive in this, but I would not for a second think any roster move as large as this would be influenced at all by the desire to sell more tickets. 
 

Pegula may like it, but why would Beane and co care at all? 

[stuvian]

Matthew Judon

Hassan Reddick 

Josh Sweat 

Chase Young 

All Free agents going into 2025