The Frankish Reich Posted November 6 Posted November 6 With a hat tip to two of our best commenters on the football side-- 1. I'm not surprised that Trump won the electoral college. I am surprised that he won the popular vote - the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. It's certainly better than 2016 because we have some clarity. Trump now owns whatever happens politically (and yes, economically) for the next 4 years. He has the Senate and very likely the House, and a compliant Supreme Court. He sets the legislative and foreign policy agenda. Last time he set aside immigration, health care, etc. in favor of Paul Ryan's more standard Republican tax cutting agenda. If there isn't a strong comprehensive immigration reform bill in the first few months I'll have to assume we're in for more of the same. 2. Democrats obviously need to rethink their coalition. Highly educated whites + lesser educated black and brown people isn't going to work. It was an unstable coalition to begin with since there really weren't enough common interests. It just blew up. Good. Trump refashioned the Republican Party/coalition in his own likeness; he will now refashion the Democratic Party/coalition as they respond to the new reality. Where is their Bill Clinton? 3. Bond markets are pricing in increased inflationary expectations. Running for President is easy if you don't issue comprehensive policy plans but just try to target certain groups/states. No taxes on tips! No taxes on social security! But there's deficits, and there's real associated spending cuts that need to happen. 4. Abortion. Exit polls show about a 2:1 split in favor of some Roe-type abortion rights. It remains untenable to have a large swath of the country with abortion bans in this situation. We aren't done with the abortion wars by any means. My prediction: it will involve interstate travel to obtain an abortion. And I don't see how that resolves in a pretty way. 5. Hope for better governance? Well, some smart people have it. Here's one: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/what-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html#comments. I could go along with this! But this is a fantasy. It would depend on having adult, experienced policy advisors. That's not what Trump has promised, and that's not our experience with him. Example from that blog: Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence. What are the chances something like this actually happens? 6. The 2028 race begins today. Trump is term limited. JD Vance will be the initial anointed one. Are other Republicans going to clear the field for him? Umm, no. Ron DeSantis isn't waiting. Several women are ready to grab that First Woman President that Hillary and Kamala couldn't deliver on. On the Democratic side, watch how they play this. I said a Bill Clinton type is what they need, but a significant faction will say why they lost is they marginalized their leftist wing. That wing will storm back. My take: Obama's success wasn't replicable; he was a rare political talent who built a cult of personality that was, of course, personal to him. Not transferable to Hillary or Biden or Kamala. Trump is likewise a rare political talent. The cult of personality around him is not transferable to DeSantis or Ted Cruz or Don Jr. So these are party identifications built on individuals who will exit the scene, not built on stable coalitions or policy choices. In other words, it's wide open. 7. We used to say That come the day We'd all be making songs Or finding better words These ideas never lasted long The way is up Along the road The air is growing thin Too many friends who tried Were blown off this mountain with the wind Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge When my time is up I'm gonna see all my friends Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge If you really mean it, it all comes round again 8. No one is rioting or filing lawsuits or screaming fraud. Maybe, just maybe, that phase of American politics has calmed down. We can hope. 5 1 2
SoonerBillsFan Posted November 6 Posted November 6 4. Abortion. Exit polls show about a 2:1 split in favor of some Roe-type abortion rights. It remains untenable to have a large swath of the country with abortion bans in this situation. We aren't done with the abortion wars by any means. My prediction: it will involve interstate travel to obtain an abortion. And I don't see how that resolves in a pretty way. SCOTUS erred with Roe V Wade by agreeing to listen to the case in the first place. The US constitution is clear, Abortion is not a protected, or even listed, Right in the constitution, therefore its a States issue. Even RBG said she knew it was going to come back to SCOTUS at some point and be overturned. Proponents of abortion are missing the point they have MORE power by forcing it on a state ballot to be voted on like it was in 3 states last night. Florida voted it down, which can happen. You are right, some women will need to travel, but the option hasn't been totally taken away. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted November 6 Author Posted November 6 Just now, SoonerBillsFan said: Florida voted it down, which can happen. But a majority of Floridians voted for it. Under Florida's constitution, they needed 60% to pass. They just missed. 1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said: You are right, some women will need to travel, but the option hasn't been totally taken away No. But Texas is a minefield. Anyone - anyone - can sue a person who has facilitated an abortion. Do you really think anti-abortion activists aren't going to press this when some group transports women from Texas to a New Mexico abortion clinic? I am not exaggerating when I say it will be the new Dred Scott, here implicating what rights states have to control the behavior of their citizens who interstate travel to engage in legal activity in the receiving state. 1
LeviF Posted November 6 Posted November 6 Solid thoughts. I plan on doing some takes on 1 and 5 with some references to my 2020 doomer thread about all the missteps and promises not kept in his first presidency. With regard to 2, the depressed turnout for Dems is wild. Some initial reports have independent voters (who broke for Kamala but by 4 fewer points than they did for Biden in 2020) outvoting registered Dems. 1 1
SCBills Posted November 6 Posted November 6 Both sides need to do an autopsy. Democrats, for obvious reasons. They’re losing Hispanics and it’s not just a Trump-related phenomenon. As they become more integrated into society, they view themselves as Americans first. And as Americans, who are already more socially conservative, they oppose illegal immigration and vote on who they believe is better on the economy. In other words, they are becoming a white-adjacent voting bloc. Black men are moving right. Not in the same numbers as Hispanics, but Democrats cannot win losing 1 out of every 4 black men. White suburban women are the swing voters & they went for Trump. Abortion didn’t move them. Maybe ask why.. and the answer is because they have families.. they have husbands.. they have sons.. and they will also take their interests into account when voting. You can’t trash their husbands and trash their sons and expect them to vote for you because of abortion, of which many of them have varying views on the issue. Republicans need to figure out how to replicate the coalition Trump has built once he exits stage left in 4 years. JD Vance is the obvious answer, and it will be in a different way than Trump, but if Obama was able to build a coalition that carried him to two terms, JD Vance (imo) is his R equivalent, and one that can carry the coalition into 2028. 1 1
Artful Dodger Posted November 6 Posted November 6 9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: With a hat tip to two of our best commenters on the football side-- 1. I'm not surprised that Trump won the electoral college. I am surprised that he won the popular vote - the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. It's certainly better than 2016 because we have some clarity. Trump now owns whatever happens politically (and yes, economically) for the next 4 years. He has the Senate and very likely the House, and a compliant Supreme Court. He sets the legislative and foreign policy agenda. Last time he set aside immigration, health care, etc. in favor of Paul Ryan's more standard Republican tax cutting agenda. If there isn't a strong comprehensive immigration reform bill in the first few months I'll have to assume we're in for more of the same. 2. Democrats obviously need to rethink their coalition. Highly educated whites + lesser educated black and brown people isn't going to work. It was an unstable coalition to begin with since there really weren't enough common interests. It just blew up. Good. Trump refashioned the Republican Party/coalition in his own likeness; he will now refashion the Democratic Party/coalition as they respond to the new reality. Where is their Bill Clinton? 3. Bond markets are pricing in increased inflationary expectations. Running for President is easy if you don't issue comprehensive policy plans but just try to target certain groups/states. No taxes on tips! No taxes on social security! But there's deficits, and there's real associated spending cuts that need to happen. 4. Abortion. Exit polls show about a 2:1 split in favor of some Roe-type abortion rights. It remains untenable to have a large swath of the country with abortion bans in this situation. We aren't done with the abortion wars by any means. My prediction: it will involve interstate travel to obtain an abortion. And I don't see how that resolves in a pretty way. 5. Hope for better governance? Well, some smart people have it. Here's one: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/what-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html#comments. I could go along with this! But this is a fantasy. It would depend on having adult, experienced policy advisors. That's not what Trump has promised, and that's not our experience with him. Example from that blog: Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence. What are the chances something like this actually happens? 6. The 2028 race begins today. Trump is term limited. JD Vance will be the initial anointed one. Are other Republicans going to clear the field for him? Umm, no. Ron DeSantis isn't waiting. Several women are ready to grab that First Woman President that Hillary and Kamala couldn't deliver on. On the Democratic side, watch how they play this. I said a Bill Clinton type is what they need, but a significant faction will say why they lost is they marginalized their leftist wing. That wing will storm back. My take: Obama's success wasn't replicable; he was a rare political talent who built a cult of personality that was, of course, personal to him. Not transferable to Hillary or Biden or Kamala. Trump is likewise a rare political talent. The cult of personality around him is not transferable to DeSantis or Ted Cruz or Don Jr. So these are party identifications built on individuals who will exit the scene, not built on stable coalitions or policy choices. In other words, it's wide open. 7. We used to say That come the day We'd all be making songs Or finding better words These ideas never lasted long The way is up Along the road The air is growing thin Too many friends who tried Were blown off this mountain with the wind Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge When my time is up I'm gonna see all my friends Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge If you really mean it, it all comes round again 8. No one is rioting or filing lawsuits or screaming fraud. Maybe, just maybe, that phase of American politics has calmed down. We can hope. Great post! 1. The election was a thorough repudiation of progressive governance, the mainstream media, and the establishment, not necessarily in that order rather than an embrace of a new Republicanism. The liberal consensus in this country has been shattered. However, Trump doesn't have a coherent ideology, and he never will. However, we may get a good immigration bill, finally. I hope so. 2,6. Trump is exhausting and people will get tired of him fairly quickly as they did during his first term, and the Democratic Party will come roaring back in the midterms. The Democrats will be strongly favored as the Not Trump party in 2028, whether it has a coherent ideology or not and the Republican candidate is forced to defend the last four years. 4. The abortion issue is obviously a loser for Republicans. Eventually nearly every state will settle on legalizing abortions through four months or so which is similar to most European countries. Once we reach that point, the issue will be largely off the table. Not sure how long that will take. 8. Come Inauguration Day, there will be riots in some blue cities including Washington, DC. Since the riots will be characterized as "mostly peaceful," maybe they won't be too destructive. But it may be that this movement has exhausted itself and been discredited and hopefully it won't get another boost from Trump's election. 3
Tiberius Posted November 6 Posted November 6 28 minutes ago, Artful Dodger said: Great post! 1. The election was a thorough repudiation of progressive governance, the mainstream media, and the establishment, not necessarily in that order rather than an embrace of a new Republicanism. The liberal consensus in this country has been shattered. However, Trump doesn't have a coherent ideology, and he never will. However, we may get a good immigration bill, finally. I hope so. It was? How so? What progressive governance is going out the window? Inflation won Trump the election. This boring election that came down to no policy, really. How many million fewer voters this time?
Steve O Posted November 6 Posted November 6 26 minutes ago, Artful Dodger said: 4. The abortion issue is obviously a loser for Republicans. Eventually nearly every state will settle on legalizing abortions through four months or so which is similar to most European countries. Once we reach that point, the issue will be largely off the table. Not sure how long that will take. 8. Come Inauguration Day, there will be riots in some blue cities including Washington, DC. Since the riots will be characterized as "mostly peaceful," maybe they won't be too destructive. But it may be that this movement has exhausted itself and been discredited and hopefully it won't get another boost from Trump's election. re 4 - Every state settling the issue themselves, whether legalizing or not, is the definition of a win for Republicans. re 8 - Hope you're wrong and Frankish is right. As he said, we can hope. 2
BuffaninSarasota Posted November 6 Posted November 6 9 minutes ago, Tiberius said: It was? How so? What progressive governance is going out the window? Inflation won Trump the election. This boring election that came down to no policy, really. How many million fewer voters this time? Are you really that obtuse to suggest that inflation was the only factor which won Trump the election? 1
Tiberius Posted November 6 Posted November 6 Just now, BuffaninSarasota said: Are you really that obtuse to suggest that inflation was the only factor which won Trump the election? Are you that dumb?
Steve O Posted November 6 Posted November 6 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Tiberius said: It was? How so? What progressive governance is going out the window? Inflation won Trump the election. This boring election that came down to no policy, really. How many million fewer voters this time? re progressive governance going out the window - EV mandate for one. Look at charging stocks - EVgo down over 11%, Charge Point down over 12%,Blink down over 13%. On a day when the Dow is up over 1,000 and Nasdaq up over 400. re inflation winning the election - that and people worrying more about foreign invaders killing innocent Americans than a national right to kill innocent babies. Edited November 6 by Steve O
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted November 6 Posted November 6 13 minutes ago, Tiberius said: It was? How so? What progressive governance is going out the window? Inflation won Trump the election. This boring election that came down to no policy, really. How many million fewer voters this time? You told us repeatedly it would be about abortion. What went wrong? 1
BuffaninSarasota Posted November 6 Posted November 6 Just now, Tiberius said: Are you that dumb? Tibs doubling down with the ignorance ..... blissful as usual. Bless your heart. 1
Tiberius Posted November 6 Posted November 6 1 minute ago, Steve O said: re progressive governance going out the window - EV mandate for one. Look at charging stocks - EVgo down over 11%, Charge Point down over 12%,Blink down over 13% re inflation winning the election - that and people worrying more about foreign invaders killing innocent Americans than a national right to kill innocent babies. EV is hardly the whole Progressive agenda We shall see if he really does anything about the border, the bill of which he already killed. If he goes after millions of workers the economy will suffer. Its easy to complain, but actually governing is difficult and this guy is mentally challenged, to say the least Trump can barely speak in full sentences. This should be a fun four years--or less , 3 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said: Tibs doubling down with the ignorance ..... blissful as usual. Bless your heart. No, that's you, actually 4 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: You told us repeatedly it would be about abortion. What went wrong? I was wrong.
boyst Posted November 6 Posted November 6 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: With a hat tip to two of our best commenters on the football side-- 1. I'm not surprised that Trump won the electoral college. I am surprised that he won the popular vote - the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. It's certainly better than 2016 because we have some clarity. Trump now owns whatever happens politically (and yes, economically) for the next 4 years. He has the Senate and very likely the House, and a compliant Supreme Court. He sets the legislative and foreign policy agenda. Last time he set aside immigration, health care, etc. in favor of Paul Ryan's more standard Republican tax cutting agenda. If there isn't a strong comprehensive immigration reform bill in the first few months I'll have to assume we're in for more of the same. 2. Democrats obviously need to rethink their coalition. Highly educated whites + lesser educated black and brown people isn't going to work. It was an unstable coalition to begin with since there really weren't enough common interests. It just blew up. Good. Trump refashioned the Republican Party/coalition in his own likeness; he will now refashion the Democratic Party/coalition as they respond to the new reality. Where is their Bill Clinton? 3. Bond markets are pricing in increased inflationary expectations. Running for President is easy if you don't issue comprehensive policy plans but just try to target certain groups/states. No taxes on tips! No taxes on social security! But there's deficits, and there's real associated spending cuts that need to happen. 4. Abortion. Exit polls show about a 2:1 split in favor of some Roe-type abortion rights. It remains untenable to have a large swath of the country with abortion bans in this situation. We aren't done with the abortion wars by any means. My prediction: it will involve interstate travel to obtain an abortion. And I don't see how that resolves in a pretty way. 5. Hope for better governance? Well, some smart people have it. Here's one: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/what-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html#comments. I could go along with this! But this is a fantasy. It would depend on having adult, experienced policy advisors. That's not what Trump has promised, and that's not our experience with him. Example from that blog: Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence. What are the chances something like this actually happens? 6. The 2028 race begins today. Trump is term limited. JD Vance will be the initial anointed one. Are other Republicans going to clear the field for him? Umm, no. Ron DeSantis isn't waiting. Several women are ready to grab that First Woman President that Hillary and Kamala couldn't deliver on. On the Democratic side, watch how they play this. I said a Bill Clinton type is what they need, but a significant faction will say why they lost is they marginalized their leftist wing. That wing will storm back. My take: Obama's success wasn't replicable; he was a rare political talent who built a cult of personality that was, of course, personal to him. Not transferable to Hillary or Biden or Kamala. Trump is likewise a rare political talent. The cult of personality around him is not transferable to DeSantis or Ted Cruz or Don Jr. So these are party identifications built on individuals who will exit the scene, not built on stable coalitions or policy choices. In other words, it's wide open. 7. We used to say That come the day We'd all be making songs Or finding better words These ideas never lasted long The way is up Along the road The air is growing thin Too many friends who tried Were blown off this mountain with the wind Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge When my time is up I'm gonna see all my friends Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge If you really mean it, it all comes round again 8. No one is rioting or filing lawsuits or screaming fraud. Maybe, just maybe, that phase of American politics has calmed down. We can hope. 1) he was duped by Paul Ryan. Ryan is a pos 4) only a ###### would believe the president is involved with roe v Wade. It is not a constitutionally protected activity. It is a States issue. Trump is also the only candidate for the GOP or Democrats to support abortion rights during his entire political life. 5 better governance by most of the Trump supporters would be banning many unnecessary positions and removing the government. No more sec of labor, education, etc. It's damn near libertarian and something that Dems would want 20 yrs ago. 6. Vance/Gabbard vs Newsom/Stein
SCBills Posted November 6 Posted November 6 This election was a rebuke of the Biden/Harris economic policy of which they are linked to inflation, yes… it was also a rebuke of woke/elitism and illegal immigration. NY, NJ, VA etc., didn’t shift noticeably to the right due to only inflation. You don’t have a landslide of this level due to only one issue. This is reflective of an electorate that has had enough of the current iteration of the Democrat Party on multiple fronts. 1 3 2
BuffaninSarasota Posted November 6 Posted November 6 30 minutes ago, Tiberius said: EV is hardly the whole Progressive agenda We shall see if he really does anything about the border, the bill of which he already killed. If he goes after millions of workers the economy will suffer. Its easy to complain, but actually governing is difficult and this guy is mentally challenged, to say the least Trump can barely speak in full sentences. This should be a fun four years--or less , No, that's you, actually I was wrong. Do you want me to list the other reasons why people voted R other than inflation, or would that be too embarrassing for you? 1
L Ron Burgundy Posted November 6 Posted November 6 2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: With a hat tip to two of our best commenters on the football side-- 1. I'm not surprised that Trump won the electoral college. I am surprised that he won the popular vote - the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. It's certainly better than 2016 because we have some clarity. Trump now owns whatever happens politically (and yes, economically) for the next 4 years. He has the Senate and very likely the House, and a compliant Supreme Court. He sets the legislative and foreign policy agenda. Last time he set aside immigration, health care, etc. in favor of Paul Ryan's more standard Republican tax cutting agenda. If there isn't a strong comprehensive immigration reform bill in the first few months I'll have to assume we're in for more of the same. 2. Democrats obviously need to rethink their coalition. Highly educated whites + lesser educated black and brown people isn't going to work. It was an unstable coalition to begin with since there really weren't enough common interests. It just blew up. Good. Trump refashioned the Republican Party/coalition in his own likeness; he will now refashion the Democratic Party/coalition as they respond to the new reality. Where is their Bill Clinton? 3. Bond markets are pricing in increased inflationary expectations. Running for President is easy if you don't issue comprehensive policy plans but just try to target certain groups/states. No taxes on tips! No taxes on social security! But there's deficits, and there's real associated spending cuts that need to happen. 4. Abortion. Exit polls show about a 2:1 split in favor of some Roe-type abortion rights. It remains untenable to have a large swath of the country with abortion bans in this situation. We aren't done with the abortion wars by any means. My prediction: it will involve interstate travel to obtain an abortion. And I don't see how that resolves in a pretty way. 5. Hope for better governance? Well, some smart people have it. Here's one: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/what-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html#comments. I could go along with this! But this is a fantasy. It would depend on having adult, experienced policy advisors. That's not what Trump has promised, and that's not our experience with him. Example from that blog: Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence. What are the chances something like this actually happens? 6. The 2028 race begins today. Trump is term limited. JD Vance will be the initial anointed one. Are other Republicans going to clear the field for him? Umm, no. Ron DeSantis isn't waiting. Several women are ready to grab that First Woman President that Hillary and Kamala couldn't deliver on. On the Democratic side, watch how they play this. I said a Bill Clinton type is what they need, but a significant faction will say why they lost is they marginalized their leftist wing. That wing will storm back. My take: Obama's success wasn't replicable; he was a rare political talent who built a cult of personality that was, of course, personal to him. Not transferable to Hillary or Biden or Kamala. Trump is likewise a rare political talent. The cult of personality around him is not transferable to DeSantis or Ted Cruz or Don Jr. So these are party identifications built on individuals who will exit the scene, not built on stable coalitions or policy choices. In other words, it's wide open. 7. We used to say That come the day We'd all be making songs Or finding better words These ideas never lasted long The way is up Along the road The air is growing thin Too many friends who tried Were blown off this mountain with the wind Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge When my time is up I'm gonna see all my friends Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge If you really mean it, it all comes round again 8. No one is rioting or filing lawsuits or screaming fraud. Maybe, just maybe, that phase of American politics has calmed down. We can hope. Great post. I'm just disgusted and embarrassed today. But hopefully the party recognizes it's shortcomings and makes some big changes. Bad immigration policy and not taking more action to address inflation. That's it. That's what lost it. Kamala wasn't a great candidate either. No women candidates next time. Sorry. Your don't have full rights why would you think you can be president? Losing to a guy who thinks airports were taken over during the revolutionary war. A criminal. If he does half of what he said he was going to do these 4 years will be bad for lower middle class and poor people. I'm making money on crypto though so there is a bright side. 1
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted November 6 Posted November 6 5 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said: Great post. I'm just disgusted and embarrassed today. But hopefully the party recognizes it's shortcomings and makes some big changes. Bad immigration policy and not taking more action to address inflation. That's it. That's what lost it. Kamala wasn't a great candidate either. No women candidates next time. Sorry. Your don't have full rights why would you think you can be president? Losing to a guy who thinks airports were taken over during the revolutionary war. A criminal. If he does half of what he said he was going to do these 4 years will be bad for lower middle class and poor people. I'm making money on crypto though so there is a bright side. Care to elaborate on the bad immigration policy? My condolences.
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