What is the future of the AFC East?

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think Ben Johnson goes to the Bengals if they don’t make the playoffs 

 

Problem there is money. They don't pay for coaches. He will be leaving a ton of money on the table if he takes that job. 

 

It looks more and more to me like he really messed up not taking Washington. I was seceptical but the new ownership and front office there seem to have really got that building together and obviously looks like they nailed the QB which is always the most important piece. 

 

If the open jobs end up being: Jets, Saints, Jags, Bears, Cowboys and Giants....

 

I don't think it is beyond credibility that Johnson puts again and stays put. I think of those jobs I might like the Bears situation the most except their division is tough as well as obviously whether he wants to go against Detroit. 

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

I agree with the posts here in that NE is in the best position to challenge the Bills if Maye continues to improve. The Jets and Dolphins look like they will be headed for hard times especially the Jets as they went all in with Rodgers, and it has failed. 

 

When you bet on double zero for the long shot expect to lose your money.

[JP51]

My opinion

 

Miami - With Tua they can contend in the division and remain to this point our biggest threat.  They have weapons like Hill and Waddle Achane Mostert etc... 

Problem: Defense has a lot of money wrapped into it... Jalean Phillips, Chubb etc.. coming off significant injuries, Jalen Ramsey getting older Poyer clearly past is prime. I see D as a problem. On to Tua... with a healthy Tua they can contend.... healthy... with the type of game that he is playing now to stay healthy, he effectively negates the significant edge their speed receivers have and the deep threat they present.  He is getting rid of the ball at lightning speed so he doesnt get hit. What happens when he has to hold on to it... time will tell.  Threat rating - light yellow... a little caution

 

Jets: This season is effectively over for them. Rodgers will likely not be back. Depending how they finish the season (best case they go like 7-10 worst they lose out) they may not find themselves in a position to take a significant top QB next year.  They wont resist the urge to reach and that could set them back even farther. Internally they seem a mess. Divided over their coaches firing causing internal strife. After Rodgers leaves... his buddies stay what does that mean to the internal strife or are they all cut and they need to rebuild complete overall talent. Either way its an issue. Threat Rating : Green no worries for at least a few years

 

Patriots -  Lots of people lover Drake Maye, he has shown some good things. I am not sure that he is going to be elite... Lots of needs for skilled players especially at WR but lots of money to make that happen plus a still solid brand that can attract those types of players if they see that Maye is going to be more than Kenny Pickett or Mac Jones etc.... and more like a Lawrence or Herbert . I do like their defense and I think Mayo is good at this point in starting to develop folks.  But I wonder just how good he really is.  Not seeing alot of innovation and motivation..... but I am not close to it. Threat level : light yellow a little caution. At least for 2 years. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Just to be clear, I don’t think that the Pats are necessarily a “threat” to the Bills at this point. I think by the end of next year, or the beginning of the following year, they are most likely the 2nd best team in the division. They have a QB with a lot of physical skills (which Mac never had) and a boatload of cap space. They are more likely to get good than Miami or the Jets IMO.

I mostly agree, Miami’s best shot of taking the division was last year while Tua was still on that rookie contract and their WRs were younger.  Tyreke is a now year older and all the moves Miami had made to try and get past us appear to have not worked while paying Tua now, which really sets them back.

 

The Jets seem to me less strapped than Miami, so if Drake Maye doesn’t pan out for the Pats, Jets may get that next crack at making a run for us, but who will their QB even be at that point, let alone their next Head Coach?  As shown by teams like the Texans or Commanders, these things can change in one offseason if the right pieces come together, so that’s where being less strapped maybe helps the Jets compete sooner.  But then again, it’s the Jests. 

[ColoradoBills]

Miami is all in with Tua until at least 2027.  Not great with cap space.

NY Jets have a big decision on Aaron during the off season.  He won't retire and wants another $35M

 

Both have a slim chance of having everything go right and winning the division.

 

Pats will get another full draft (plus another 3rd) most likely in the top 10.

They have something like $135M to spend in FA.

All about their new QB.

They have the best chances of things going right for them.

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

4 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

The pats may have the best shot.  Drake maye looks pretty decent and they are looking like a great draft position as of now, and I'd assume cap bux coming available.

I just don't know if mayo is the guy to lead a team and develop a qb.  

 

 

I agree i dont see mayo as a long term solution. I think kraft may have intentionally hired a head coach that would do poorly, so that they could get a higher draft pick next year. The pats were never going to win this year anyways. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a new head coach next year. With drake maye, a top 5 pick in 2025 and an owner willing to spend in free agency the future looks bright for new England. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Rodgers will likely retire after this season and the Jets organization has historically been a train wreck.

 

Tua is bound to have another concussion event which will probably end his career.  Hill & Waddle will become disgruntled and want out.

 

The Patriots have some hope as Maye could turn into a poor man's version of Josh.  But alot will be asked of Mayo (defensive HC) to actually develop their qb.

 

The Bills once rid of the Von cap will have an opportunity to continue dominating a weak division.  Better decisions need to be made at WR & DE.  If we can't stop 15, then we better be prepared to accept yearly regular season accomplishments and nothing more.

[djp14150]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This thread isn’t intended to trash the rest of the trash teams in the AFC East. We heard A LOT this offseason about Miami and the Jets overtaking the Bills. 2 months later, that sounds hilarious and a lot of “football people” lost credibility here. 😂😂 

 

The question is, “what’s next?” The Bills have owned the last 5 years of the division. Entering the season, 2 teams had lower odds to win the division. That was clearly ridiculous. Those 2 teams pushed their chips in and flamed out in epic fashion. Each team loaded up with vets putting out on 18. They both appear heading for massive rebuilds (the Jets more than the Fins).
 

The Bills arrow and trajectory is pointing up. This was a bit of a “reset” but without any step back. What does the division look like in 2025 and beyond? How long does the Bills run go? What changes do our “rivals” make? Who is the biggest threat? I personally think by late 2025 the Pats may be the next best team in the division. 😂😂 It’s interesting to me because generally after 4 straight division titles, the gap closes. It appears that the gap may never be bigger than it is right now. 

 

 

Miami is a decent team. Losing your starting QB can kill seasons. Long term concern. They can’t live with Waddle, Hill,vand Tua. One has to go due to  cap issues.

 

J-E-T-S… W-T-F-?…..  on paper they should be better. You have a QB, a very good young RB and WR, a historically decent defense. They are 2-4 in one score games. another L, was one score entering the 4th. Only the opener at niners did the lose a game by multiple scores earlier in the game.
 

look at KC—they are 8-0 in one score games start/ early in the 4th. A big factor is confidence/ team belief.

 

on new England — thry drafted a QB high in the draft at 3OA. He has started some games.  Wait and see how he develops.  Does he operate an offense that’s tailored to his strengths? What happens later this year and early next year with game tape teams learned patterns/ behavior or schemes he is poor dealing with.  Pats are a young team with cap room to play with to improve the team 

 

 

[DrBob806]

4 hours ago, BillsPride12 said:

I think these Josh Allen Bills teams end up winning more Division titles than the Jim Kelly Bills teams did which is really awesome

The big question is can we build it up to get to the point where we are going to(and hopefully winning🤞) Super Bowls

Very possible. Josh doesn't point fingers at his teammates like Kelly did. 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

How many teams that will have HC openings aren't dysfunctional? Bills were dysfunctional until they drafted Allen. Lions were dysfunctional and are no longer. I agree the Jets are a mess. Let's not forget though they have a Lombardi (lol wasn't called that in 1968) and have been to twice as many AFC Championship games in the 21st century than the Bills have.   If they take Allen instead of Darnold the last 7 years is a much different history.  

How much of Darnold's failures are a result of the organization?  Baker and Darnold both resurrected their careers after leaving the poverty franchises that drafted them. 

 

On an unrelated note, I. Just sat down for a lunch in Nashville, and it's a Bills bar. 

[HappyDays]

I wouldn't count out the Dolphins next year. We just saw firsthand how good that offense is when everyone is healthy and McDaniel is willing to be patient as a play caller. They did anything they wanted to against us, and if they can drag us into a shootout it becomes basically a coin flip game. I still see them as our most viable competition for the next couple years.

 

I don't think people are giving enough credit to how bad the Pats roster is right now... They're kind of where the Bills were in 2018 but arguably with even less talent, and Jerod Mayo has not been good at all IMO. He's a defensive coach and his defense has been abysmal (30th in DVOA). And it's very unlikely Drake Maye becomes as good as Josh Allen. I know they have a ton of resources to spend next year but they are almost like an expansion team starting from scratch. They will have to make a lot of good decisions to climb their way back into contention. I'm really not worried about them at all.

 

The Jets are in for a few years of pain. They made a massive mistake trying to go all in with a 40 year old QB. Short term all in teams very rarely work out. The Rams did it and it worked but it took them a couple years just to get back into wildcard contention and that was with an elite coach and very good QB guiding the ship. The Jets by comparison are lost at sea and don't even have a captain. Get back to me in four seasons, we'll see where they're at.

[Coach Tuesday]

26 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I wouldn't count out the Dolphins next year. We just saw firsthand how good that offense is when everyone is healthy and McDaniel is willing to be patient as a play caller. They did anything they wanted to against us, and if they can drag us into a shootout it becomes basically a coin flip game. I still see them as our most viable competition for the next couple years.

 

I don't think people are giving enough credit to how bad the Pats roster is right now... They're kind of where the Bills were in 2018 but arguably with even less talent, and Jerod Mayo has not been good at all IMO. He's a defensive coach and his defense has been abysmal (30th in DVOA). And it's very unlikely Drake Maye becomes as good as Josh Allen. I know they have a ton of resources to spend next year but they are almost like an expansion team starting from scratch. They will have to make a lot of good decisions to climb their way back into contention. I'm really not worried about them at all.

 

The Jets are in for a few years of pain. They made a massive mistake trying to go all in with a 40 year old QB. Short term all in teams very rarely work out. The Rams did it and it worked but it took them a couple years just to get back into wildcard contention and that was with an elite coach and very good QB guiding the ship. The Jets by comparison are lost at sea and don't even have a captain. Get back to me in four seasons, we'll see where they're at.

 

I agree with you.  Miami, they'd need to address the offensive line the right way this offseason - and then they'd need some real luck, because they're always one play away from disaster given Tua's injury history.  

[HappyDays]

56 minutes ago, Billl said:

Baker and Darnold both resurrected their careers after leaving the poverty franchises that drafted them. 

 

Baker is the same player he was in Cleveland, which is a perfectly decent QB that will always hover around 16th best in the league. Cleveland let him go because they thought Watson could be a top 5 QB, obviously that has not worked out.

 

Darnold hasn't resurrected his career. He will continue to be a backup/bridge starter because he doesn't see the field well and doesn't move through his progressions fast enough. All of his warts are popping up again now that opposing defenses have several games of tape on him in that offense. He'll be the primary reason the Vikings don't go far in the playoffs this year and they'll switch to JJ McCarthy next year.

 

Edited November 6 by HappyDays

[Success]

Pats fans are over the moon about Maye, and think their return to power is inevitable.

 

I watched most of their game last week.  Maye was actually quite bad until the last drive. The last play to get to OT was outstanding, but then he threw a terrible pick in OT.

 

I'm a long way from worrying about that guy.  The Pats aren't going anywhere anyway - they're run now like we were during the drought, or close to it.   The Jets put everything into win now, and there just seems to be something w/ that organization - they can't get out of their own way.  They'll have to start from scratch.

 

Miami is the only team I could see being a real threat in the next 3-5 years.  Tua is really good if he stays healthy, and they have a decent team around him.

 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Miami, they'd need to address the offensive line the right way this offseason

 

I don't know, I think McDaniel's scheme hides OL deficiencies as well as anyone. Ball is in out in 2 seconds, or the run scheme dials up big blockers on small defensive players for an automatic mismatch. I'm sure they'll make a couple investments there but I wouldn't expect it to be a priority... Their biggest need is playmakers at every level of the defense.

[Kirby Jackson]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I wouldn't count out the Dolphins next year. We just saw firsthand how good that offense is when everyone is healthy and McDaniel is willing to be patient as a play caller. They did anything they wanted to against us, and if they can drag us into a shootout it becomes basically a coin flip game. I still see them as our most viable competition for the next couple years.

 

I don't think people are giving enough credit to how bad the Pats roster is right now... They're kind of where the Bills were in 2018 but arguably with even less talent, and Jerod Mayo has not been good at all IMO. He's a defensive coach and his defense has been abysmal (30th in DVOA). And it's very unlikely Drake Maye becomes as good as Josh Allen. I know they have a ton of resources to spend next year but they are almost like an expansion team starting from scratch. They will have to make a lot of good decisions to climb their way back into contention. I'm really not worried about them at all.

 

The Jets are in for a few years of pain. They made a massive mistake trying to go all in with a 40 year old QB. Short term all in teams very rarely work out. The Rams did it and it worked but it took them a couple years just to get back into wildcard contention and that was with an elite coach and very good QB guiding the ship. The Jets by comparison are lost at sea and don't even have a captain. Get back to me in four seasons, we'll see where they're at.

 

7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

I agree with you.  Miami, they'd need to address the offensive line the right way this offseason - and then they'd need some real luck, because they're always one play away from disaster given Tua's injury history.  

I guess for me, the Dolphins are a bigger threat than the Jets. What’s happened the last few years though is tough to overlook. Maybe they can get back to a 10 win team with some changes to the OL & D. I just don’t believe in them. That feels like their absolute ceiling and it doesn’t seem like that window will be around long. Maybe next year? At some point Tyreek & Ramsey are cooked. They have a ton of money tied up in an average, to slightly above average, QB. It just doesn’t feel like that team can compete with the Bills at any point soon. The Pats have the “unknown” element. They have a young QB that looks like he may be the 2nd best QB in the division relatively soon. They have a young star CB, boatloads of cap space and early picks. If they get competent coaching (TBD) and do well with their asset allocation, it won’t be hard to go by both Miami & NY.

[corta765]

5 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’d say let’s see Drake Maye versus McD’s defense, before anointing the Pats as the next best challenger.  Wasn’t too long ago Mac Jones was being touted as the Pats future, how long did that last?  Between McD and Josh, the both have a way of showing they own this division.

Maye is a far more talented QB physically in a league which mobile passers is becoming the greatest desired thing a QB can do. Not saying he is their solution at all, but in terms of being a threat the attributes Maye has and what I have seen are far more real and scary IF he were to develop then anything Jones ever showed.

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

Pats will get another full draft (plus another 3rd) most likely in the top 10.

They have something like $135M to spend in FA.

All about their new QB.

They have the best chances of things going right for them.

Yep. But even so they are still a year away from being a real threat in division just given the time it takes for QBs to develop and the amount of talent they need to restock. I can see them as a wild card team next year if all goes well, but division is 26' or later IF it all goes well.

[BillnutinHouston]

If the bedrock you are building your team on includes either a scramble-brained or 40 year old QB, you have actually built on a sand foundation.  Recipe for failure.

[eball]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The problem for all three is that this was the weakest point in the Bills cycle. And they competitors missed it. Might be 3 or 4 years before the roster is this week again.

 

Exactly.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Problem there is money. They don't pay for coaches. He will be leaving a ton of money on the table if he takes that job. 

 

It looks more and more to me like he really messed up not taking Washington. I was seceptical but the new ownership and front office there seem to have really got that building together and obviously looks like they nailed the QB which is always the most important piece. 

 

If the open jobs end up being: Jets, Saints, Jags, Bears, Cowboys and Giants....

 

I don't think it is beyond credibility that Johnson puts again and stays put. I think of those jobs I might like the Bears situation the most except their division is tough as well as obviously whether he wants to go against Detroit. 

 

I'd probably say cowboys or bust.  Jerry's gonna want to make a splash after this crap year. 

 

Probably makes you the highest paid HC in the league.

HC for one of the most valuable and prestigious teams in the league.

A QB - say what you want about dak but he's better than every other likely opening