TSNBDSC Posted November 5 Posted November 5 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html 1 Quote
Dan Darragh Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Why would I pay to get the NY Times? 2 5 1 9 5 1 1 Quote
Mr Info Posted November 5 Posted November 5 2 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said: Why would I pay to get the NY Times? This is all that is required and displayed without a subscription. 1 4 Quote
Ray Stonada Posted November 5 Posted November 5 It gives us a higher chance to win our division than the Chiefs! 1 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted November 5 Posted November 5 1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said: It gives us a higher chance to win our division than the Chiefs! I'm not good at statistics or probability but I do agree with the Times that we have a much better chance of winning the AFCE than the Chiefs. In all seriousness, virtually every year, I feel like Beane & McD give us about a 10% chance of winning it all. Here the NYT is saying we have a 9% chance - roughly the same No team is so good that a Lombardi is guaranteed. And when you consider injuries, bad bounces, poor ref calls, and the one-and-done playoff system, you have to acknowledge that winning the SB requires a combination of skill and luck. Getting our chances up to 9 or 10%, when the average team has a 3% chance of winning it all, represents (mostly) good work by our HC and GM. 3 3 1 Quote
Big Turk Posted November 5 Posted November 5 10 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said: It gives us a higher chance to win our division than the Chiefs! I mean we have a 4 game lead on the entire division and we still play the hapless Patriots twice in the last 3 weeks. 2 Quote
boyst Posted November 5 Posted November 5 22 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said: Why would I pay to get the NY Times? Some people still have cats and birds that need paper to line their cages and literboxes https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor Also includes playoff sim 4 1 1 3 Quote
Buffalo03 Posted November 5 Posted November 5 This week is a big game against the Colts. With a win, we can get to 8-2. The Texans have the Lions on SNF. With a loss the Texans fall to 6-4. Considering they have the head to head on us, getting a 2 game lead on them is big. 6 1 1 Quote
JP51 Posted November 5 Posted November 5 17 minutes ago, Big Turk said: I mean we have a 4 game lead on the entire division and we still play the hapless Patriots twice in the last 3 weeks. with tie breakers 1 Quote
JP51 Posted November 5 Posted November 5 4 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: This week is a big game against the Colts. With a win, we can get to 8-2. The Texans have the Lions on SNF. With a loss the Texans fall to 6-4. Considering they have the head to head on us, getting a 2 game lead on them is big. Agreed.... this one when we all looked at the schedule in July/Aug when training camp started looked at this game as a must win with the difficulty of our schedule.. plus we have a gauntlet to run thru in the Chiefs, Lions, Rams and 9ers. I felt like early on we needed to come thru this 5 game stretch 3-2... Beating the Colts would be huge in that goal... 3-2 run the table against the Pats and Jets.. you are 13-4 fair shot at a bye and a home game... I dont see the Ravens or Texans at 13-4 with their current records and division... Chiefs I think unless they implode have the 1 spot. 1 Quote
Billznut Posted November 5 Posted November 5 The ESPN playoff machine should be coming out soon. It’s free and just as about as good as the NYT machine. 1 1 Quote
YattaOkasan Posted November 5 Posted November 5 (edited) 18 hours ago, boyst said: Some people still have cats and birds that need paper to line their cages and literboxes https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor Also includes playoff sim Didnt see the playoff sim but love this prediction for the rest of the reg season Edit: lol i had to look under the hood. predictor has KC losing to car in Week 12 (after we beat them week 11) while were on the bye. i would melt in joy Edited November 6 by YattaOkasan Quote
bills_fan Posted November 5 Posted November 5 1 hour ago, JP51 said: Agreed.... this one when we all looked at the schedule in July/Aug when training camp started looked at this game as a must win with the difficulty of our schedule.. plus we have a gauntlet to run thru in the Chiefs, Lions, Rams and 9ers. I felt like early on we needed to come thru this 5 game stretch 3-2... Beating the Colts would be huge in that goal... 3-2 run the table against the Pats and Jets.. you are 13-4 fair shot at a bye and a home game... I dont see the Ravens or Texans at 13-4 with their current records and division... Chiefs I think unless they implode have the 1 spot. If we go through that 5 game stretch 4-1 rather than 3-2, and we get a W against KC, we still have a shot at the 1. KC plays 2 games in 4 days (12/21 vs Hou and 12/25 @ Pitt). If they split those and have a loss against us, we just need them to take 1 more loss (split w Denver?) to have a realistic shot at the 1 seed. Quote
Doc Brown Posted November 5 Posted November 5 2 hours ago, Mr Info said: This is all that is required and displayed without a subscription. You have to look really quick. LOL. Quote
JohnNord Posted November 5 Posted November 5 3 hours ago, TSNBDSC said: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html This thing is so worthless. Remember last season when the Bills had a fraction of a chance to make the playoffs and the WGR guys were using the NYT playoff machine as though it were concrete evidence they were finished. I learned to ignored these simulations as there isn’t much validity until the very end of the season Quote
Doc Brown Posted November 5 Posted November 5 1 minute ago, JohnNord said: This thing is so worthless. Remember last season when the Bills had a fraction of a chance to make the playoffs and the WGR guys were using the NYT playoff machine as though it were concrete evidence they were finished. I learned to ignored these simulations as there isn’t much validity until the very end of the season Right and that small chance happened. That's why they do modeled simulations. Having said that, it's useless. 1 Quote
DapperCam Posted November 5 Posted November 5 2 hours ago, Billznut said: The ESPN playoff machine should be coming out soon. It’s free and just as about as good as the NYT machine. The ESPN playoff machine is totally different right? You can find out playoff seeding by manually choosing game outcomes. It doesn't run a model to predict outcomes like the NYT one. Quote
boyst Posted November 5 Posted November 5 1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said: Didnt see the playoff sim but love this prediction for the rest of the reg season Edit: lol i had to look under the hood. predictor has KC losing to chiefs in Week 12 (after we beat them week 11) while were on the bye. i would melt in joy The simulator it has is random at best. But you can insert your own picks and playoffs 1 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted November 6 Posted November 6 4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: I'm not good at statistics or probability but I do agree with the Times that we have a much better chance of winning the AFCE than the Chiefs. In all seriousness, virtually every year, I feel like Beane & McD give us about a 10% chance of winning it all. Here the NYT is saying we have a 9% chance - roughly the same No team is so good that a Lombardi is guaranteed. And when you consider injuries, bad bounces, poor ref calls, and the one-and-done playoff system, you have to acknowledge that winning the SB requires a combination of skill and luck. Getting our chances up to 9 or 10%, when the average team has a 3% chance of winning it all, represents (mostly) good work by our HC and GM. We're at 10%+ every year because of Josh, not the coaching. 1 Quote
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