Frustrated by Bills failure to stop the run? - listen to Joe Marino - expected points added (EPA)

[ganesh]

57 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

You're right under McDermott they were more aggressive last year

 

I think this year they have the lowest blitz rate in any team in the league though- which is super frustrating, considering the D line struggles to get consistent pressure .

 

I expect them to game plan against KC just like how they did Miami, but I hope I'm wrong

When it comes to the Chiefs for the Bills, it is all about stopping (or the inability) Kelce.  

[GoBills808]

28 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The logic is only odd if you believe the oft-repeated-never-verified story that McD pushed Daboll to pass less and run more.  

 

Who knows that McD and Daboll talked about privately?  I suspect that McD pushed Daboll to play situational football which means running the ball when running the ball is the smart choice given score, down-and-distance, and defense.  

 

I think McD loves when the offense produces chunk plays through the air as much as anyone.  And understands their importance (vis-a-vis analytics).

 

they've built a very odd offense if that's the case

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The logic is only odd if you believe the oft-repeated-never-verified story that McD pushed Daboll to pass less and run more.  

 

Who knows that McD and Daboll talked about privately?  I suspect that McD pushed Daboll to play situational football which means running the ball when running the ball is the smart choice given score, down-and-distance, and defense.  

 

I think McD loves when the offense produces chunk plays through the air as much as anyone.  And understands their importance (vis-a-vis analytics).

 

 

then we are running an offense right now that he doesn’t like.

[hondo in seattle]

56 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

they've built a very odd offense if that's the case

 

That they have.

 

The Diggs issue gave Beane an unsolvable problem.  He got rid of Diggs and ate $30 million in salary which meant he was cash-strapped and shopping for wideouts at the Dollar Store where he found Samuel, Claypool, and MVS.  Given lemons, Brady has been making lemonade.  

 

Hopefully with Coop onboard and players getting healthy, we'll see more downfield passing and chunk plays going forward while playing situational football.  

[Mat68]

On 11/8/2024 at 8:42 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Is that really your response to being informed that Allen was 1 for 12 on those throws?  

 

Man you really lean into your wrong. 😂

 

13 seconds game.  Allen to Davis for 28 and 19 yards similar route.  High redzone is 15-20.  The TD to take the lead with 13 sec left was 19 yard skinny post.  Shakir ran the same route vs the same coverage.  Allen was going there the whole time.  Jones saved the touchdown by Dawkins bumping into Allen. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

That they have.

 

The Diggs issue gave Beane an unsolvable problem.  He got rid of Diggs and ate $30 million in salary which meant he was cash-strapped and shopping for wideouts at the Dollar Store where he found Samuel, Claypool, and MVS.  Given lemons, Brady has been making lemonade.  

 

Hopefully with Coop onboard and players getting healthy, we'll see more downfield passing and chunk plays going forward while playing situational football.  

I was being generous 

 

There's a lot more evidence to suggest that controlling the ball/ clock at the expense of a more explosive offense is the preferred direction of this regime. The Diggs issue imo was partly a problem of their own making... obviously he owns a lot of the blame but let's not pretend his usage under Brady was in any way indicative of an offense that prioritized 'big plays'.

 

We've summarily shipped out the last 2 OCs who wanted to build big time offenses and installed the guy who runs ball control. That's their prerogative and tbh I give them credit for trying something different (even tho philosophically I think it's 180 the wrong direction) in order to get over the postseason hump but to say they actually want a more high flying scheme...that's not a true reading of the facts imo

 

I look at a team like the Ravens as really evolving their system and roster offensively. And that's w a QB who as great as Lamar is doesn't have all the throws Allen can make

[L Ron Burgundy]

5 hours ago, ganesh said:

You mean the Kansas City Chiefs ? 

Bengals too, don't forget.

[jethro_tull]

On 11/5/2024 at 11:37 AM, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With all due respect there is one fatal flaw with this wacky philosophy- running teams keep moving the chains and keep the ball away from our offense.  

A couple runs up the gut and the other team has an easy third down conversion.  Stop the run and force third and long and a predictable passing situation.  

No thanks.  Stuff the run.  Always.