Frustrated by Bills failure to stop the run? - listen to Joe Marino - expected points added (EPA)

[Einstein]

On 11/6/2024 at 10:47 PM, Nephilim17 said:

Just listened to this Marino podcast today (I catch many of his podcast)
He claims that there's a corelation between limiting explosive plays versus conceding the run and winning. 

 

This is exactly what McD thinks, from my observation watching him coach.

 

But the odd thing is, his defensive philosophy contradicts his offensive philosophy. On defense, he thinks limiting passing and letting teams run will increase the chance of winning. But on offense, he kept pushing Daboll to pass less and run more. To which, we now have an OC who runs nearly as much as he passes and we have very few explosive passing plays (which we did with Daboll). So… based on the logic we have on defense, wouldn’t that decrease our chance of winning on offense?

 

The logic is odd to me.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

This is exactly what McD thinks, from my observation watching him coach.

 

But the odd thing is, his defensive philosophy contradicts his offensive philosophy. On defense, he thinks limiting passing and letting teams run will increase the chance of winning. But on offense, he kept pushing Daboll to pass less and run more. To which, we now have an OC who runs nearly as much as he passes and we have very few explosive passing plays (which we did with Daboll). So… based on the logic we have on defense, wouldn’t that decrease our chance of winning on offense?

 

The logic is odd to me.

 

 

 

I don't think McDermott said he wanted to pass less.  He just wants the ability to run the ball if the passing game is shutdown...be more two dimensional.

Allen is 3rd in the league in passing attempts since 2020 with 3 different coordinators and second in that time in point differential.  He wants to pass the ball.

 

But in the playoff time, in more potential with severe weather, he doesn't want our offense to be stopped because we can't run.

[BADOLBILZ]

59 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

High redzone skinny post is one of Allens favorite throws.  When it’s there he rips it.  I don't buy into any argument against it.  An abstract theory on game management or fan fiction on what happens when he throws it to Diggs?  Maybe Diggs just drops it.  Like he did earlier that drive and multiple times in that stretch of the season.  The pass wasn't a 50/50 fade or deep shot on 3rd down.  He has thrown multiple touchdowns on that pass.  If not for Chris Jones he would have again.  It is not Madden.  You cant assume you can score with 1 sec left.  Gotta take the chances as they come.  
 

 Vs Miami I haven't seen the all 22 to see the touchdowns Allen passed up on.  And if on film that was the case he wont be high fiving, he will be pissed that he missed them.  The offense moved the ball very well.  2 touchdowns taken off the board in the first half made that game closer than it should have been.  

 

Wow to the bolded.

 

Josh Allen was 1 for 12 on throws of over 20 yards in the middle of the field in the 2023 season and playoffs.........the 12th being that idiotic one hopper to Shakir on 2nd and 9.

 

Your entire premise is dead f#cking wrong.  

 

You called it a throw he makes 10 out of 10 times...........in reality he had made it 1 out of 11 times prior. 😂

 

Below is his passing chart.  It slides with the arrow for this year or 2023.  You are just in denial about how stupid of a choice that was.   

 

 

[Nephilim17]

53 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

This is exactly what McD thinks, from my observation watching him coach.

 

But the odd thing is, his defensive philosophy contradicts his offensive philosophy. On defense, he thinks limiting passing and letting teams run will increase the chance of winning. But on offense, he kept pushing Daboll to pass less and run more. To which, we now have an OC who runs nearly as much as he passes and we have very few explosive passing plays (which we did with Daboll). So… based on the logic we have on defense, wouldn’t that decrease our chance of winning on offense?

 

The logic is odd to me.

 

 

I thought this exact same thing yesterday.

I guess the finer points of this philosophy are predicated on...

A) Us running better than the other team

B) Us passing better than the other team and limiting our explosive pass attempts but not ruling them out

C) This year we're getting YAC

D) We have Josh Allen, who is unique

With a defense that is playing some average people as starters (Rapp/Hamlin, D line) we're going to have to pick our poison. I personally am ok with the Belichick philosophy with "make them beat you by taking away, or limiting, their best weapon," which against the Phins was Hill and then Waddle. 

 

When Josh doesn't turn the ball over, plays smart, and our WRs are not injured, I think we've got a very good chance most games. The Coleman pass was all on Keon. 

Until we the D-line gets better this defense will be far from perfect and will have to make concessions. We just don't have the personnel to play perfect D.

 

 

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Wow to the bolded.

 

Josh Allen was 1 for 12 on throws of over 20 yards in the middle of the field in the 2023 season and playoffs.........the 12th being that idiotic one hopper to Shakir on 2nd and 9.

 

Your entire premise is dead f#cking wrong.  

 

You called it a throw he makes 10 out of 10 times...........in reality he had made it 1 out of 11 times prior. 😂

 

Below is his passing chart.  It slides with the arrow for this year or 2023.  You are just in denial about how stupid of a choice that was.   

 

 

I want Allen to make that throw 10/10 times.  Maybe not in 23 but I have seen him make the that throw multiple times in varying distances give or take 20 yards.  Kumerow, Davis, heck this year Hollins have caught touchdowns on similar routes and calls.  It was as open as Diggs.  Diggs drops it Allen is an idiot for missing the open guy in the end zone?   

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I want Allen to make that throw 10/10 times.  Maybe not in 23 but I have seen him make the that throw multiple times in varying distances give or take 20 yards.  Kumerow, Davis, heck this year Hollins have caught touchdowns on similar routes and calls.  It was as open as Diggs.  Diggs drops it Allen is an idiot for missing the open guy in the end zone?   

 

 

Is that really your response to being informed that Allen was 1 for 12 on those throws?  

 

Man you really lean into your wrong. 😂

 

[Julio Hopkins]

EPA was just as inaccurate and generally useless when people used it to defend Ken Dorsey last year.  

[Thurman#1]

 

1 hour ago, Julio Hopkins said:

EPA was just as inaccurate and generally useless when people used it to defend Ken Dorsey last year.  

 

EPA is completely legit, makes a ton of sense. Does an excellent job of showing how dangerous / non-threatening a given situation is. Does it correctly predict the immediate future each time? No. Nothing does.

 

 

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Wow to the bolded.

 

Josh Allen was 1 for 12 on throws of over 20 yards in the middle of the field in the 2023 season and playoffs.........the 12th being that idiotic one hopper to Shakir on 2nd and 9.

 

Your entire premise is dead f#cking wrong.  

 

You called it a throw he makes 10 out of 10 times...........in reality he had made it 1 out of 11 times prior. 😂

 

Below is his passing chart.  It slides with the arrow for this year or 2023.  You are just in denial about how stupid of a choice that was.   

 

 

 

 

While you're right that he was exaggerating, your stat doesn't address his specific claim in the post you highlighted.

 

He's talking about that specific route, the high redzone skinny post. You're including all throws over 20 yards. Which includes such throws as 50 yarders and more. You can't include all those non-high-redzone-skinny-posts, some open and some not, some from a clear pocket and some under great pressure, first down throws and third-and-longs, and pretend you're speaking to his claims about high redzone skinny posts with that stat. You are very much not.

 

Having said that, your overall point about choking out offenses with high percentage throws is a very good one. It's efficient and with guys who are good at YAC - and we have several these days - it can lead to major big plays such as Davis' sixty-three yard TD catch that hit him two yards behind the LOS.

 

QBs these days are are in a totally different environment than they were three and four years ago. The move by defenses to two high shells has made long passes more dangerous and short ones safer and easier. Forcing safeties to move forward through grinding out long drives on productive plays will eventually make safer long passes again available. If we keep scoring 30 points with conservative but productive drives, we're going to win most of our games. Hell, KC has scored 30 points this year in exactly one game.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 03:57 AM by Thurman#1

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

EPA is completely legit, makes a ton of sense. Does an excellent job of showing how dangerous / non-threatening a given situation is. Does it correctly predict the immediate future each time? No. Nothing does.

 

 

 

 

While you're right that he was exaggerating, your stat doesn't address his specific claim in the post you highlighted.

 

He's talking about that specific route, the high redzone skinny post. You're including all throws over 20 yards. Which includes such throws as 50 yarders and more. You can't include all those non-high-redzone-skinny-posts, some open and some not, some from a clear pocket and some under great pressure, first down throws and third-and-longs, and pretend you're speaking to his claims about high redzone skinny posts with that stat. You are very much not.

 

Having said that, your overall point about choking out offenses with high percentage throws is a very good one. It's efficient and with guys who are good at YAC - and we have several these days - it can lead to major big plays such as Davis' sixty-three yard TD catch that hit him two yards behind the LOS.

 

QBs these days are are in a totally different environment than they were three and four years ago. The move by defenses to two high shells has made long passes more dangerous and short ones safer and easier. Forcing safeties to move forward through grinding out long drives on productive plays will eventually make safer long passes again available. If we keep scoring 30 points with conservative but productive drives, we're going to win most of our games. Hell, KC has scored 30 points this year in exactly one game.

 

 

 

Regarding the highlighted:

 

If you are going to claim that a specific route is a QB's specialty.......then prove it.   @Mat68 was just pulling that out of his a$$.   My point that Josh Allen had been 1-11 on throws of that depth and field location more than adequately squashes that fabrication.   You act like there is some hidden number of similar "high redzone skinny posts" there that Allen was great at.   There ain't.   Allen wasn't even good on intermediate throws over the middle either.    Oh, wait, I'm not specifically addressing the redzone aspect.  What route gets easier as you get closer to the redzone?  I'll wait.   He was just hurling nonsense at the wall to defend an emotion he was having.  

 

To clarify regarding the depth of that throw.......to hit Shakir that ball probably has to travel about 30 yards in the air........the drop back yardage + LOS at the 20 + 3-9 yards into the end zone to completion.    It was absolutely not a short or intermediate throw.   In the context of the rest of your post..........it was a STUPID football decision for Allen and/or Brady to make THAT throw the first option coming out of a 2 minute warning timeout.   Allen never looked away from Shakir.   He was determined to force that throw.   

[frostbitmic]

Unfortunately the strategy of letting Receivers run free on 3rd and long to try and trick teams into running hasn't worked.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/10/2024 at 2:00 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Regarding the highlighted:

 

If you are going to claim that a specific route is a QB's specialty.......then prove it.   @Mat68 was just pulling that out of his a$$.   My point that Josh Allen had been 1-11 on throws of that depth and field location more than adequately squashes that fabrication.   You act like there is some hidden number of similar "high redzone skinny posts" there that Allen was great at.   There ain't.   Allen wasn't even good on intermediate throws over the middle either.    Oh, wait, I'm not specifically addressing the redzone aspect.  What route gets easier as you get closer to the redzone?  I'll wait.   He was just hurling nonsense at the wall to defend an emotion he was having.  

 

To clarify regarding the depth of that throw.......to hit Shakir that ball probably has to travel about 30 yards in the air........the drop back yardage + LOS at the 20 + 3-9 yards into the end zone to completion.    It was absolutely not a short or intermediate throw.   In the context of the rest of your post..........it was a STUPID football decision for Allen and/or Brady to make THAT throw the first option coming out of a 2 minute warning timeout.   Allen never looked away from Shakir.   He was determined to force that throw.   

 

 

As usual, you've loaded the goal posts onto a giant U-Haul and are happily moving them wherever you feel like. Not surprising, that's your constant M.O. But it's still poor logic, poor argumentative skills.

 

You didn't challenge whether that route was his specialty in the post I referred to. It's not him pulling anything out of his ass. It's you. That's what you are doing here ... precisely.

 

If you want to challenge that that route is his specialty, go ahead. Do it. But you didn't. Never said a word about it.

 

And if your point was indeed that Allen been 1-11 of throws of that depth and field location and that that quashed the possibility that he was good on the one particular route, well, why would anyone make a point as obviously dumb and illogical. Of course it doesn't quash that point.

 

If he was 1-11 on all throws to that distance ... you still need to show what he was throwing on that particular route. On that specific route ... was he 1 of 11 on skinny posts? No, obviously not. So what was he? 1 for 4? 1 for 1? 0 for 0? You didn't bother looking. You have no idea. That number has zero probative value on what you're trying to show. 

 

Was he 0 for 2 when on one his arm had been hit when he threw and on the other the receiver fell down before he got near the ball? Sorry, man, I addressed it because it was dumb and it is still dumb. Using numbrs from a set with many elements to prove something about a few elements of a set without then examining the numbers about the specific elements doesn't prove anything. Except laziness.

 

It's like saying that jellyfish populations must be going down because fish populations are going down overall. Simply poor logic.

 

Again, your overall point about how very effective an offense taking short balls when that's what the defense is giving ... that point was - and is - right on target.

 

As for the specific play you're talking about ... honestly I'm too unmotivated to go back and look. Why should I? It's not what I confronted you about. I never addressed the individual play. You're moving the goal posts again. Go talk to him about it if you need to. I confronted you about your poor move in thinking examining a big dataset and thinking that overall trend about the whole set showed much about a few individual elements. It doesn't. The idea's dumb.

 

But I want to say yet again since this post now looks very negative, you're exactly right on the overall thrust of your argument. Having Allen work short - even a lot - can be extremely effective.

[L Ron Burgundy]

Their philosophy unfortunately shifts come playoff time to "let the opposing offense score at will" which has prevented us from winning a Lombardi.   

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:42 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Wow to the bolded.

 

Josh Allen was 1 for 12 on throws of over 20 yards in the middle of the field in the 2023 season and playoffs.........the 12th being that idiotic one hopper to Shakir on 2nd and 9.

 

Your entire premise is dead f#cking wrong.  

 

You called it a throw he makes 10 out of 10 times...........in reality he had made it 1 out of 11 times prior. 😂

 

Below is his passing chart.  It slides with the arrow for this year or 2023.  You are just in denial about how stupid of a choice that was.   

 

 

This whole argument relies on the assumption that any throw over 20 yards to the middle of the field has the same percentage of success as his previous throws of that type that year which is pretty comical.  Joshs numbers were dismal because he didn’t often have very easy throws like that one to pad them…teams worked hard to take that stuff away.  That throw was an absolute layup that any halfway decent rec league flag football qb makes pretty easily if their allstar high priced olineman doesn’t get blown up at the last possible second of course 😂

 

Edited yesterday at 02:37 PM by Generic_Bills_Fan

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Their philosophy unfortunately shifts come playoff time to "let the opposing offense score at will" which has prevented us from winning a Lombardi.   

You mean the Kansas City Chiefs ? 

[billsfan89]

I do wonder what McD is going to have planned for KC and some of the better teams like the Lions. I think McD likely felt like Flacco was going to make mistakes and at worst kick field goals. 

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

I do wonder what McD is going to have planned for KC and some of the better teams like the Lions. I think McD likely felt like Flacco was going to make mistakes and at worst kick field goals. 

It's going to be a lot of the same. Rush 4, 2 deep safeties and keep everything in front of them. 
 

I get it to a certain point, but man is it frustrating to watch and I wish they would be more aggressive 

[billsfan89]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

It's going to be a lot of the same. Rush 4, 2 deep safeties and keep everything in front of them. 
 

I get it to a certain point, but man is it frustrating to watch and I wish they would be more aggressive 

 

I feel like they "pick their spots" to be aggressive esp in 2023 when McD was the coordinator. I would like to see them do those blitzes and stunts a bit more, but McD is a very good defensive mind I think he knows what he is doing. 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I feel like they "pick their spots" to be aggressive esp in 2023 when McD was the coordinator. I would like to see them do those blitzes and stunts a bit more, but McD is a very good defensive mind I think he knows what he is doing. 

You're right under McDermott they were more aggressive last year

 

I think this year they have the lowest blitz rate in any team in the league though- which is super frustrating, considering the D line struggles to get consistent pressure .

 

I expect them to game plan against KC just like how they did Miami, but I hope I'm wrong

Edited yesterday at 03:30 PM by BillsFan130

[Sweats]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:16 AM, Einstein said:

 

This is exactly what McD thinks, from my observation watching him coach.

 

But the odd thing is, his defensive philosophy contradicts his offensive philosophy. On defense, he thinks limiting passing and letting teams run will increase the chance of winning. But on offense, he kept pushing Daboll to pass less and run more. To which, we now have an OC who runs nearly as much as he passes and we have very few explosive passing plays (which we did with Daboll). So… based on the logic we have on defense, wouldn’t that decrease our chance of winning on offense?

 

The logic is odd to me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personally, i don't need to see big explosive plays in our run game.......just keep moving the chains or setting up 3rd and short.

 

This philosophy of letting runners run all over us on D, but sparing the big passing game may work for now, but it is going to put us at "one and done" in the post season.

[hondo in seattle]

On 11/8/2024 at 7:16 AM, Einstein said:

 

This is exactly what McD thinks, from my observation watching him coach.

 

But the odd thing is, his defensive philosophy contradicts his offensive philosophy. On defense, he thinks limiting passing and letting teams run will increase the chance of winning. But on offense, he kept pushing Daboll to pass less and run more. To which, we now have an OC who runs nearly as much as he passes and we have very few explosive passing plays (which we did with Daboll). So… based on the logic we have on defense, wouldn’t that decrease our chance of winning on offense?

 

The logic is odd to me.

 

 

 

The logic is only odd if you believe the oft-repeated-never-verified story that McD pushed Daboll to pass less and run more.  

 

Who knows that McD and Daboll talked about privately?  I suspect that McD pushed Daboll to play situational football which means running the ball when running the ball is the smart choice given score, down-and-distance, and defense.  

 

I think McD loves when the offense produces chunk plays through the air as much as anyone.  And understands their importance (vis-a-vis analytics).