Frustrated by Bills failure to stop the run? - listen to Joe Marino - expected points added (EPA)

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

The part I have a problem with is - if you are gonna concede the run,  at least take away the pass.

They got ran on for 150 yards and Tua had 3 incompletions in 28 attempts.

 

We stopped the big play though, cool...

 

Well, other than that deep ball to Tyreek that would've been an easy TD if Tua hadn't underthrown it by 5 yards 

[KOKBILLS]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's especially effective when they tackle well... And especially ugly when they don't...

[colin]

our scheme is a bit too one note for my taste.

 

it's great vs bad qbs, you make a negative play here and there vs the run which you run down and force a 3rd and long and make his day hard with a disguised coverage and your up the field fresh legs (why we platoon the dl) pressures the qb and forces an incomplete.  

 

vs a complete team or a good qb, you get what we had vs miami, or baltimore.  the issue for me is our scheme puts immense pressure on the dl to penetrate and not get trapped or washed out, and our LBs and nickle back have to read the gap correctly and blast up the field and make a play.  it makes milano an all pro because he's a human torpedo.  the d "works" when you have DL who can create pressure and win up front, smart near mistake free LBs who read the gap and just destroy it, and a sophisticated secondary who communicate and confuse to stop the deep passes.

 

the long term success of the d is very good, great stats and has been number 1 twice i think in terms of yards.

 

as we all know, vs good qbs and coaches, it gives a nice open book for them to read, so if you don't just flat out plays made up front, or in the back end off of confusion for turnovers, the O just takes what is there and your small D gets gassed out running after the ball and tackling all day and they get hurt too because the average size is small at LB/NCB.

 

i will say it looks better than what the ravens have, with lots of giant scary athletes but who just allow insane long passes at the worst rate in the nfl, but at least the ravens can modify what they do to take away the bills strength, for example, while we look the same in every loss.

 

remember the new england win game in like 2020 or 2021?  they attempted what, 4 passes all day, and beat us just running the ball down our throats.  it also means our roster construction needs a lot of DL to platoon, and a single injury to NCB or LB makes the opponent's QB play on easy mode because they just target the weak link over and over again.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Joe Marino one of the guys who are on WGR 550 in the mornings?

[BillsFan130]

19 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Well, other than that deep ball to Tyreek that would've been an easy TD if Tua hadn't underthrown it by 5 yards 

Haha true. So we gave up the run, gave up the easy 5-15 yard passes, and even still let up a "should have been" big play lol

[WideNine]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Yes.  Mcdermott does not want to give up explosives in the run game.  When he chooses he wants to.  Ideally, entice the run with a light box.  Generate a stop or negative play.  Roll that into a third and long and get off the field.   

 

I get what Joe is saying, but not sure if that explains why RZ defense was terrible.

 

I think I could better live with conceding drives with runs and short passes moving the sticks if those drives ended in 3-point attempts.

 

That is an area on the field where you are not defending explosive (passing) plays so how do the Bills tighten up there?

 

Or just chalk it up to Miami having schemes down there where we did not have answers, but teams will look to do similar things to us if they have the players to pull it off.

 

 

 

 

 

[Saratoga Fan]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Is Joe Marino one of the guys who are on WGR 550 in the mornings?

No

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BB,

 

Thanks for this as I knew the philosophy, but some are caught up in 1980’s football.  McD’s philosophy falls in line with the 2024 NFL.  Announcers who are lazy amd don’t do their hw. Like Marino, think we are getting gashed when in reality a big running day nets 150 yards or our combined 325 yards between passing and running.  
 

It’s hard for people like my dad to wrap their arms around this is an intent strategy.  I have zero problems with a light box amd ever notice how year in and out we rank at the top at eliminating the big play.  It’s much harder to rip off an 84 yard run (other than maybe Henry) than a 40 yard pass with yac.  It’s why I’m not stressed out when I see a 11 yard run.  They are also killing clock, where we are inadvertently controlling clock.

 

ThNks again BB.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

BB,

 

Thanks for this as I knew the philosophy, but some are caught up in 1980’s football.  McD’s philosophy falls in line with the 2024 NFL.  Announcers who are lazy amd don’t do their hw. Like Marino, think we are getting gashed when in reality a big running day nets 150 yards or our combined 325 yards between passing and running.  
 

It’s hard for people like my dad to wrap their arms around this is an intent strategy.  I have zero problems with a light box amd ever notice how year in and out we rank at the top at eliminating the big play.  It’s much harder to rip off an 84 yard run (other than maybe Henry) than a 40 yard pass with yac.  It’s why I’m not stressed out when I see a 11 yard run.  They are also killing clock, where we are inadvertently controlling clock.

 

ThNks again BB.

 

I understand it is a passing league, but I think we are seeing a league-wide trend for 2-TE heavy personnel and more running. I am not looking for a 3-4 defense with Shane Conlin as our ML.. the league evolves and in some ways we see things go out of vogue and get revived with twists.

I certainly think that Derrick is a throw back to RBs of yore.

Against poor teams where we can get up on them early I don't have a lot of concerns, against good teams that can stop our offense and run at will down the field and then score in the RZ  - it's a problem.

Perhaps the aggregate data says it generally works, but curious how that will hold up against the better teams down the stretch in that smaller sample size.

We will see