Frustrated by Bills failure to stop the run? - listen to Joe Marino - expected points added (EPA)

[WideNine]

36 minutes ago, MJS said:

Bernard and Williams were the weak links this game. They usually play better. And the Dolphins have a very sophisticated run game, and they actually stuck with it for once.

 

I think Oliver can be a bit of a liability too as good teams invite the penetration from 3-techs like him and either let him take himself out of the play or wash him out with wham blocks.

 

Great penetrating pass rushers have to be able to switch gears playing the run.

 

 

 

 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

I think Oliver can be a bit of a liability too as good teams invite the penetration from 3-techs like him and either let him take himself out of the play or wash him out with wham blocks.

 

Great penetrating pass rushers have to be able to switch gears playing the run.

Daquon Jones should have been better as well. He wasn't getting off blocks. Eli Ankou is the best run defending defensive tackle we have. He has one more practice squad call up, then I hope they keep him on the active roster and keep getting him playing time.

[WotAGuy]

10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Someone explain to me the difference between getting beat on a 85 yard td run by Henry or an 85 yard go route to Flowers?  It still results in a score. Our run D got shredded against Mia. and they even got shredded throwing to their RB's. How is our zone dime supposed to stop that?

Letting the opponent score easily incentivizes our offense to get off their ass and get going. 

[SectionC3]

4 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I'm normally a fan of advanced stats, but this one doesn't really pass the eye test to me. 

 

With traditional stats this is how the Bills rush DEF ranks:

 

15th in rushing yards allowed per game

26th in rush yards allowed per carry

T-25th in 20+ yard rushes allowed

T-30th in 40+ yard rushes allowed

T-6th in forced fumbles on rushing plays

 

EPA has us as the 3rd best rush defense? At best we're somewhere around average (depending on how much weight you give to the forced fumbles). If we didn't have a handful of games where we jumped out to big leads and the opponent had to abandon the run I think the rushing stats would look even worse. 

 

I'm also not a fan of the philosophy to just let teams run on us. If there's a blue-print to beating elite QBs it's to have your own offense put together long clock killing drives to limit the elite QBs possessions. Why would we invite teams to do that to us? 

 

It probably works when you force a lot of turnovers and don't turn the ball over like we do.  Efficient patience on our end, inefficient patience on their end.  TBD whether this works against top teams like KC, Detroit, etc. 

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

Daquon Jones should have been better as well. He wasn't getting off blocks. Eli Ankou is the best run defending defensive tackle we have. He has one more practice squad call up, then I hope they keep him on the active roster and keep getting him playing time.

 

Jones has been a shell of himself before the injury last year. He was the best player on our defense most games...now I rarely even know he is in there.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

Jones has been a shell of himself before the injury last year. He was the best player on our defense most games...now I rarely even know he is in there.

Yeah, he needs to be gone after this year. He is washed.

[Bruffalo]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is all well and good but I don't think it means that they executed well on Sunday, or that it couldn't be a lot better. I'm fine with the Bills wanting teams to run.  They can still be better at stopping it without a philosophical change. 

 

Get a solid 1T DT to anchor the D-Line and I think you'll see the defense look more dominant. The initial gaps for Miami on Sunday were ridiculous. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Regardless of their philosophy, the defense was terrible against Miami. 

 

Intentionally allowing the other team to run on us won't get us wins against the Ravens or Lions.

 

I think you're missing the point.

 

[WideNine]

40 minutes ago, MJS said:

Daquon Jones should have been better as well. He wasn't getting off blocks. Eli Ankou is the best run defending defensive tackle we have. He has one more practice squad call up, then I hope they keep him on the active roster and keep getting him playing time.

 

Yeah.

 

I think I saw DQ get blocked on one play cleanly one-on-one by their FB, and that is a battle I normally would expect the big guy to win.

 

Not the best outing for that group for sure

 

 

[Mat68]

Yes.  Mcdermott does not want to give up explosives in the run game.  When he chooses he wants to.  Ideally, entice the run with a light box.  Generate a stop or negative play.  Roll that into a third and long and get off the field.   

[YattaOkasan]

So one question I have for this topic and generally about negative EPAs for run.  Is there a way to calculate the total EPA for the other team after the play (are they likely to score -1 points in the game after a successful play).  Where this is important is that a run play may have a slightly negative EPA play for the offense but may be a bigger negative EPA for the other team because the clock is running and they are losing time (e.g. run to limit possessions for Josh).  If so then this could be a more positive play than passing.  I think this is best highlighted by end of game situations with a lead/tie, where yes you get negative EPA but the opponents gets a much bigger negative EPA.  Wondering if this is calculatable and if so then if could be worked into the calculation.

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

The Run McD can be frustrating to watch at times, but the scheme clearly works more than it doesn’t… However when it doesn’t it can be ugly, as shown by King Henry and the guy they’re up against this week who’s run all over this McDefense on more than one occasion…

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I'm normally a fan of advanced stats, but this one doesn't really pass the eye test to me. 

 

With traditional stats this is how the Bills rush DEF ranks:

 

15th in rushing yards allowed per game

26th in rush yards allowed per carry

T-25th in 20+ yard rushes allowed

T-30th in 40+ yard rushes allowed

T-6th in forced fumbles on rushing plays

 

EPA has us as the 3rd best rush defense? At best we're somewhere around average (depending on how much weight you give to the forced fumbles). If we didn't have a handful of games where we jumped out to big leads and the opponent had to abandon the run I think the rushing stats would look even worse. 

 

I'm also not a fan of the philosophy to just let teams run on us. If there's a blue-print to beating elite QBs it's to have your own offense put together long clock killing drives to limit the elite QBs possessions. Why would we invite teams to do that to us? 

 

i'm showing our defense after miami game 11th overall in EPA/rush fwiw

 

as to the blueprint for beating elite QBs- don't believe that's the case at all tbh. imo the only way to consistently beat top QBs is to generate consistent pressure in the pocket. to put it another way: if you are facing an elite QB, every time you incentivize their offense to hand the ball off and take it out of their QB's hand is a win.

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

And it works most of the time.   The defensive philosophy definitely keeps ..most.. every game close and within reach for Josh.  
 

I just wish, they could come up with some wrinkles to throw off the better offenses that can run and utilize the short passing game with high efficiency.  They need something different to get them over the hump in the playoffs.  

 

The Bills strategy is going to be good enough to win 70-75% of the time, and keep the rest of our games pretty close.

That's why we keep winning the AFC East, and finish high in most of the analytic charts by season's end.

 

The problem is that winning a Super Bowl requires a final stretch of defeating 3-4 of the best teams in football, most of whom have elite Quarterbacks and/or very smart coaching staffs.  One slip-up and the season is over.  

 

Most opponents get impatient against the Bills, because they are afraid of keeping up with Josh Allen.  So they gradually get away from the run and short/quick passing game.  Which of course plays directly into what we want.  But if our offense starts sluggish in the first-half, and teams are willing to consistently stick with the ground game...that's when we start running into trouble.

 

For some reason, the Chiefs have the reputation for being an explosive offense.  But in reality, they have successfully morphed into a patient dink/dunk attack.  The Ravens are absolutely deadly on the ground, and would certainly lean on it again in a rematch.  If the Bengals squeak into the playoffs, they have proven to be the exact kind of team we don't want to play.  If the Bills were to make the Super Bowl, similar issues would arise against the Lions, 49ers, etc.  This is our path to a Lombardi trophy.

 

If the Bills are just going to accept that teams will destroy them on the ground, they can pretty much just count on another early postseason exit.

 

Edited 5 hours ago by mjt328

[Dan]

17 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

The Bills strategy is going to be good enough to win 70-75% of the time, and keep the rest of our games pretty close.

That's why we keep winning the AFC East, and finish high in most of the analytic charts by season's end.

 

The problem is that winning a Super Bowl requires a final stretch of defeating 3-4 of the best teams in football, most of whom have elite Quarterbacks and/or very smart coaching staffs.  One slip-up and the season is over.  

 

Most opponents get impatient against the Bills, because they are afraid of keeping up with Josh Allen.  So they gradually get away from the run and short/quick passing game.  Which of course plays directly into what we want.  But if our offense starts sluggish in the first-half, and teams are willing to consistently stick with the ground game...that's when we start running into trouble.

 

For some reason, the Chiefs have the reputation for being an explosive offense.  But in reality, they have successfully morphed into a patient dink/dunk attack.  The Ravens are absolutely deadly on the ground, and would certainly lean on it again in a rematch.  If the Bengals squeak into the playoffs, they have proven to be the exact kind of team we don't want to play.  If the Bills were to make the Super Bowl, similar issues would arise against the Lions, 49ers, etc.  This is our path to a Lombardi trophy.

 

If the Bills are just going to accept that teams will destroy them on the ground, they can pretty much just count on another early postseason exit.

 

I tend to agree with you completely.   And I think it’s that 70-75% win rate and high statistical standings that have the coaching staff convinced they just need to remain status quo.    

I think it’s also why we keep getting bumped in the divisional round.  At that point, there are no bad teams left.  McDs defense keeps it close. The O leaves the field with a lead, even.  But the D gives up the cheap score and we’re done. 
 

It’s much to early to start thinking or talking playoffs, but it’s hard to imagine the Bills not being there at this point. Which is awesome!    I just really hope the coaching staff has spent the time to develop an answer, and that it’s more than… if only we can be healthy and have a few good bounces.  
 

We have some tough games coming up and a near lock on the division… should be a good opportunity to try something new out.  

[GETTOTHE50]

Yea I rather stop the run and trust our highly touted secondary to stop the big play 

[CaseyatBat]

Makes sense until we have to go to Baltimore (no 1. rushing team)  in January

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by CaseyatBat

[Rock'em Sock'em]

I'm hopeful Milano comes back which could help.

[BillsFan130]

The part I have a problem with is - if you are gonna concede the run,  at least take away the pass.

They got ran on for 150 yards and Tua had 3 incompletions in 28 attempts.

 

We stopped the big play though, cool...

[HeHateMe]

We aren't winning in the playoffs with this passive defense - it just doesn't work well enough vs good teams.