Frustrated by Bills failure to stop the run? - listen to Joe Marino - expected points added (EPA)

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

The part I have a problem with is - if you are gonna concede the run,  at least take away the pass.

They got ran on for 150 yards and Tua had 3 incompletions in 28 attempts.

 

We stopped the big play though, cool...

 

Well, other than that deep ball to Tyreek that would've been an easy TD if Tua hadn't underthrown it by 5 yards 

[KOKBILLS]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's especially effective when they tackle well... And especially ugly when they don't...

[colin]

our scheme is a bit too one note for my taste.

 

it's great vs bad qbs, you make a negative play here and there vs the run which you run down and force a 3rd and long and make his day hard with a disguised coverage and your up the field fresh legs (why we platoon the dl) pressures the qb and forces an incomplete.  

 

vs a complete team or a good qb, you get what we had vs miami, or baltimore.  the issue for me is our scheme puts immense pressure on the dl to penetrate and not get trapped or washed out, and our LBs and nickle back have to read the gap correctly and blast up the field and make a play.  it makes milano an all pro because he's a human torpedo.  the d "works" when you have DL who can create pressure and win up front, smart near mistake free LBs who read the gap and just destroy it, and a sophisticated secondary who communicate and confuse to stop the deep passes.

 

the long term success of the d is very good, great stats and has been number 1 twice i think in terms of yards.

 

as we all know, vs good qbs and coaches, it gives a nice open book for them to read, so if you don't just flat out plays made up front, or in the back end off of confusion for turnovers, the O just takes what is there and your small D gets gassed out running after the ball and tackling all day and they get hurt too because the average size is small at LB/NCB.

 

i will say it looks better than what the ravens have, with lots of giant scary athletes but who just allow insane long passes at the worst rate in the nfl, but at least the ravens can modify what they do to take away the bills strength, for example, while we look the same in every loss.

 

remember the new england win game in like 2020 or 2021?  they attempted what, 4 passes all day, and beat us just running the ball down our throats.  it also means our roster construction needs a lot of DL to platoon, and a single injury to NCB or LB makes the opponent's QB play on easy mode because they just target the weak link over and over again.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Joe Marino one of the guys who are on WGR 550 in the mornings?

[BillsFan130]

19 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Well, other than that deep ball to Tyreek that would've been an easy TD if Tua hadn't underthrown it by 5 yards 

Haha true. So we gave up the run, gave up the easy 5-15 yard passes, and even still let up a "should have been" big play lol

[WideNine]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Yes.  Mcdermott does not want to give up explosives in the run game.  When he chooses he wants to.  Ideally, entice the run with a light box.  Generate a stop or negative play.  Roll that into a third and long and get off the field.   

 

I get what Joe is saying, but not sure if that explains why RZ defense was terrible.

 

I think I could better live with conceding drives with runs and short passes moving the sticks if those drives ended in 3-point attempts.

 

That is an area on the field where you are not defending explosive (passing) plays so how do the Bills tighten up there?

 

Or just chalk it up to Miami having schemes down there where we did not have answers, but teams will look to do similar things to us if they have the players to pull it off.

 

 

 

 

 

[Saratoga Fan]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Is Joe Marino one of the guys who are on WGR 550 in the mornings?

No

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BB,

 

Thanks for this as I knew the philosophy, but some are caught up in 1980’s football.  McD’s philosophy falls in line with the 2024 NFL.  Announcers who are lazy amd don’t do their hw. Like Marino, think we are getting gashed when in reality a big running day nets 150 yards or our combined 325 yards between passing and running.  
 

It’s hard for people like my dad to wrap their arms around this is an intent strategy.  I have zero problems with a light box amd ever notice how year in and out we rank at the top at eliminating the big play.  It’s much harder to rip off an 84 yard run (other than maybe Henry) than a 40 yard pass with yac.  It’s why I’m not stressed out when I see a 11 yard run.  They are also killing clock, where we are inadvertently controlling clock.

 

ThNks again BB.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

BB,

 

Thanks for this as I knew the philosophy, but some are caught up in 1980’s football.  McD’s philosophy falls in line with the 2024 NFL.  Announcers who are lazy amd don’t do their hw. Like Marino, think we are getting gashed when in reality a big running day nets 150 yards or our combined 325 yards between passing and running.  
 

It’s hard for people like my dad to wrap their arms around this is an intent strategy.  I have zero problems with a light box amd ever notice how year in and out we rank at the top at eliminating the big play.  It’s much harder to rip off an 84 yard run (other than maybe Henry) than a 40 yard pass with yac.  It’s why I’m not stressed out when I see a 11 yard run.  They are also killing clock, where we are inadvertently controlling clock.

 

ThNks again BB.

 

I understand it is a passing league, but I think we are seeing a league-wide trend for 2-TE heavy personnel and more running. I am not looking for a 3-4 defense with Shane Conlin as our ML.. the league evolves and in some ways we see things go out of vogue and get revived with twists.

I certainly think that Derrick is a throw back to RBs of yore.

Against poor teams where we can get up on them early I don't have a lot of concerns, against good teams that can stop our offense and run at will down the field and then score in the RZ  - it's a problem.

Perhaps the aggregate data says it generally works, but curious how that will hold up against the better teams down the stretch in that smaller sample size.

We will see

[Nihilarian]

When you think about the Dolphins' 2023 season with Tyreek Hill and his 1799 yards receiving and 13 TDs, Jaylen Waddle also had 1014 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Which BTW, was the #2 in points for, and #1 in yards for offense in the NFL that season.

 

When Tua was healthy in week two Buffalo this season held Tyreek Hill to 6 targets, 3 receptions for 24 yards. Waddle had 4 targets, and 4 receptions for 41 yards.

 

Miami in this past game with their season on the line at 2-6, Hill had 5 targets, and 4 receptions for 80 yards. Waddle had 2 targets, and 2 receptions for -4yards. And Tua was near perfect with 25 of 28 for 235 yards, 2 TDs.

A win is a win!

 

I just hope the Buffalo defense has an answer for that 2021 game with Taylor's 32 rushes for 185 yards, and 4 TDs in a 41 to 15 loss.  

[Einstein]

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They didn't stop the pass, either, against Miami.

 

Yeah…

 

The podcast kinda overlooked that.

Dolphins ran the ball at will… and Tua had like 3 total incompletions.

[Kyle and freddy]

Doesn’t letting teams run on you let them control more clock and take ball out of Josh hands …

[BillsFan130]

6 minutes ago, Kyle and freddy said:

Doesn’t letting teams run on you let them control more clock and take ball out of Josh hands …

Yep. Which is why I will always be in the camp of I would rather be more aggressive and get burned the odd time, compared to "death by 1000 cuts" and keeping Josh on the sideline.

 

I feel like the Bills game plan like underdogs a lot of the time, even though they are 6 plus point favourites 

Edited November 6 by BillsFan130

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, eball said:

 

I think you're missing the point.

 

 

Marino's point was to deceive.   I think perhaps he is angling for Shill Capaccio's sideline reporter job. 

 

Rushing the ball isn't usually a great way to score points?   Who'd have thought that running the ball largely serves to set up the pass?

 

If only Ron Jaworski new this 30 years ago he'd have been able to tell ESPN viewers that points come from the passing game.

 

Per PFF........the Dolphins average EPA per play in the game was .32 and the Bills was .06.    Marino didn't mention the Bills EPA per rush(which clearly also sucked) but he did say how beautiful he feels their zone rush offense is.   

[BillsFan130]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Marino's point was to deceive.   I think perhaps he is angling for Shill Capaccio's sideline reporter job. 

 

Rushing the ball isn't usually a great way to score points?   Who'd have thought that running the ball largely serves to set up the pass?

 

If only Ron Jaworski new this 30 years ago he'd have been able to tell ESPN viewers that points come from the passing game.

 

Per PFF........the Dolphins average EPA per play in the game was .32 and the Bills was .06.    Marino didn't mention the Bills EPA per rush(which clearly also sucked) but he did say how beautiful he feels their zone rush offense is.   

I usually love his all 22s, but this one was a bit bizarre.

 

He talked about how the Bills conceded the run and used "EPA" to back up that it was a smart move. I disagree, but ok.

 

But..  Then didn't mention anything at all about the bills getting gashed in the passing game as well.

 

If bills conceded rushing yards but only gave up 150 passing yards, ok.. But that wasn't the case and Tua was slicing and dicing them all game long

Edited November 6 by BillsFan130

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

BB,

 

Thanks for this as I knew the philosophy, but some are caught up in 1980’s football.  McD’s philosophy falls in line with the 2024 NFL.  Announcers who are lazy amd don’t do their hw. Like Marino, think we are getting gashed when in reality a big running day nets 150 yards or our combined 325 yards between passing and running.  
 

It’s hard for people like my dad to wrap their arms around this is an intent strategy.  I have zero problems with a light box amd ever notice how year in and out we rank at the top at eliminating the big play.  It’s much harder to rip off an 84 yard run (other than maybe Henry) than a 40 yard pass with yac.  It’s why I’m not stressed out when I see a 11 yard run.  They are also killing clock, where we are inadvertently controlling clock.

 

ThNks again BB.

 

I think the primary concern among reasonable fans is that the Bills defensive style seems to be too conservative against the best offenses, which gets exposed in the playoffs each season. This Dolphins gameplan felt a lot like that. The front four consistently failed to disrupt the Dolphins. And they didn't even get their hands up effectively like they have in the past against Tua. Just really passive/reactive overall. 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I think the primary concern among reasonable fans is that the Bills defensive style seems to be too conservative against the best offenses, which gets exposed in the playoffs each season. This Dolphins gameplan felt a lot like that. The front four consistently failed to disrupt the Dolphins. And they didn't even get their hands up effectively like they have in the past against Tua. Just really passive/reactive overall. 

 

 

 

Yeah it was definitely reminiscent of the playoff loss to the Chiefs last year in the way Miami had little trouble moving the ball.   They didn't put up 9 yards per play like Chiefs did but they put up 6.5 yards per play.  Only the Ravens have averaged more than 6.5 yards per play on the season so it's a notably high number to allow, particularly at home.

[Don Otreply]

The strategy “mostly” failed against Miami, they ran, passed  and scored effectively on us,  it has as well “mostly “ failed annually in the playoffs against the better teams, it was effectively a 0-0 game when a damn good Kick by Bass won the game, and I’m super happy with the win, and every other win for that matter, it’s takes some getting used to, watching teams have their way right up to the last seconds, but that the chances you take as a Bills fan, lol, 😁👍🍸🚬

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Richard Noggin]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah it was definitely reminiscent of the playoff loss to the Chiefs last year in the way Miami had little trouble moving the ball.   They didn't put up 9 yards per play like Chiefs did but they put up 6.5 yards per play.  Only the Ravens have averaged more than 6.5 yards per play on the season so it's a notably high number to allow, particularly at home.

 

Indeed.

 

I'm always willing to recognize that this passive defensive gameplan/performance was only one game, against a specific, talented, divisional opponent, and of course THEY WON. But it doesn't inspire confidence moving forward for what games against dangerous passing offenses might look like. 

 

**The Bills remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts, in that their defense can effectively compliment a high scoring offense. They don't get bullied or exposed when opposing offenses abandon the run. But otherwise, their absolute reliance on nickel personnel without much beef at the 2nd level (Bernard/Spector, Milano/Williams, Johnson/Lewis), who play behind a DL that doesn't consistently disrupt, and who play in front of deep safeties...this setup can result in cumulative run defense failures. Which can allow an offense to exploit a fast flowing front-7's tendencies with misdirection and play-action and screens. Get the defense on skates. 

[Saxum]

18 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Indeed.

 

I'm always willing to recognize that this passive defensive gameplan/performance was only one game, against a specific, talented, divisional opponent, and of course THEY WON. But it doesn't inspire confidence moving forward for what games against dangerous passing offenses might look like. 

 

**The Bills remind me a little of the Peyton Manning Colts, in that their defense can effectively compliment a high scoring offense. They don't get bullied or exposed when opposing offenses abandon the run. But otherwise, their absolute reliance on nickel personnel without much beef at the 2nd level (Bernard/Spector, Milano/Williams, Johnson/Lewis), who play behind a DL that doesn't consistently disrupt, and who play in front of deep safeties...this setup can result in cumulative run defense failures. Which can allow an offense to exploit a fast flowing front-7's tendencies with misdirection and play-action and screens. Get the defense on skates. 

 

I do agree Bills need more mass available on 2nd level for the players on it cannot afford the wear and tear - too many injuries.

 

Good thing Bills owner owns a Hockey team and can bring in consultants to help playing defense of skates.  Maybe even put an "enforcer" type on practice squad to be called up when needed.