Frustrated by Bills failure to stop the run? - listen to Joe Marino - expected points added (EPA)

[BuffaloBill]

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Listen to Joe Marino’s comments about the Bills D. Starting roughly 14 minutes 30 seconds into the podcast, Joe Marino speaks to the Bills defensive strategy.

 

In short, the Bills strategically want teams to run for two reasons:

 

* To take away explosive plays in the passing game

* The Bills allow a very low EPA (expected points added) in run plays. In fact, current stats say the Bills are the 3rd best in the league at it.

 

The net of the discussion, and others by Marino, is that the Bills choose to operate consistently with light boxes against the run. The Bills want teams to run. The Bills will give up yards in the run game because the stats say that teams do not score points against the Bills efficiently when they run.

 

It’s very insightful analysis. Many of us grew up on the mantra “run and stop the run.” McDermott’s system is more like “we pass or run and score with efficiency; you run and don’t score with efficiency.” I think Josh Allen’s ability is a huge part of this strategic approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the most part they are right.  Bills D usually is very good at preventing a lot of points.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

It isn’t rocket since. Bills roll with 2 LBs vs heavy personnel, it’s going to look ugly. 

[GoBills808]

been long on this for quite a few seasons

 

I think everyone knows by now the most efficient way of moving the ball on offense is throwing. Concurrently I believe the most sophisticated defenses and coaches (of which McDermott is certainly one) curate their rush defense in such a way as to incentivize the opponent to run the ball at a -ev frequency.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Regardless of their philosophy, the defense was terrible against Miami. 

 

Intentionally allowing the other team to run on us won't get us wins against the Ravens or Lions.

[Dan]

And it works most of the time.   The defensive philosophy definitely keeps ..most.. every game close and within reach for Josh.  
 

I just wish, they could come up with some wrinkles to throw off the better offenses that can run and utilize the short passing game with high efficiency.  They need something different to get them over the hump in the playoffs.  

[Long Suffering Fan]

Just now, Dan said:

I just wish, they could come up with some wrinkles to throw off the better offenses that can run and utilize the short passing game with high efficiency.  They need something different to get them over the hump in the playoffs.  

 

This.  Their philosophy is the right one, but you need to counter punch against those that are running so well that it is almost like passing.  Instead they seem to stubbornly stick to what is not working in those situations.  It was like the NE wind game that we lost where it was obvious that NE did not want to throw.    

[MJS]

Bernard and Williams were the weak links this game. They usually play better. And the Dolphins have a very sophisticated run game, and they actually stuck with it for once.

[njbuff]

Yeah, but when it comes playoff time and you go against good O’s on a regular basis……

 

these O’s move the ball and score at will against this D.

 

It’s been proven EVERY postseason under McDermott, except the first against Jacksonville in 2017…. with BLAKE BORTLES.

[Charles Romes]

So when I watch the games I should be saying to myself: “Wow they are really gashing us with the run…but that’s a good thing!”

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

So when I watch the games I should be saying to myself: “Wow they are really gashing us with the run…but that’s a good thing!”

In a word yes

[JMM]

The issue on Sunday wasn't so much the light box, it was the horrible tackling. 

[Coach Tuesday]

They didn't stop the pass, either, against Miami.

[billybob71]

This strategy works if you tighten up in the red zone, that didn't happen so much on Sunday. Also it is frustrating when Josh is sitting on the bench while the D gives up long time consuming drives. 

[hondo in seattle]

I love advanced stats like EPA.  Sort of.

 

The reality of the Fins game is that Miami gained something like 400 yards and scored 27 points.

If not for an unlikely 61 yard field go with 10 seconds left, we might have lost the game.  

 

The D needs to get better, whatever EPA or DVOA may indicate.

[blacklabel]

I mean, I think McDaniel and the Fish are a buncha little weasels but they had a good offensive game plan. They used their speed well and the misdirection stuff was working. I feel like they went a little deep into their playbook too since they were basically fighting for their playoff lives. 

 

It happens. The other teams are a buncha professionals too, they're gonna make plays. Sometimes I feel like the expectations people have are like, "Okay, defensively they should allow zero yards, actually it should be like -58 yards and also need a dozen sacks and five picks per game otherwise this defense is abysmal! And the offense needs to rack up 60 a game or they're bums!"

 

I mean, I'm being facetious, I realize most fans would rather not see the D get ran over for 120 yards a game or whatever. But they got the W and that's all that matters. 

[Charles Romes]

14 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They didn't stop the pass, either, against Miami.

the analytics say that’s even better 

[Rubes]

14 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I love advanced stats like EPA.  Sort of.

 

The reality of the Fins game is that Miami gained something like 400 yards and scored 27 points.

If not for an unlikely 61 yard field go with 10 seconds left, we might have lost the game.  

 

The D needs to get better, whatever EPA or DVOA may indicate.

 

True, although on the other hand, they did hold the Fins to 10 points in the first half. The second half was ugly, but it was also ugly for the Fins on defense as well.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

41 minutes ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Regardless of their philosophy, the defense was terrible against Miami. 

 

Intentionally allowing the other team to run on us won't get us wins against the Ravens or Lions.

Someone explain to me the difference between getting beat on a 85 yard td run by Henry or an 85 yard go route to Flowers?  It still results in a score. Our run D got shredded against Mia. and we even got beat by them throwing to their RB's. How is our zone dime supposed to stop that?  In the regular season Josh can offensively will us to wins. Bur that Sh!+ won't fly against elite playoff teams without better defensive strategies. In case you haven't noticed this year, teams are stressing the run game more.

Edited 4 hours ago by LABILLBACKER

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'm normally a fan of advanced stats, but this one doesn't really pass the eye test to me. 

 

With traditional stats this is how the Bills rush DEF ranks:

 

15th in rushing yards allowed per game

26th in rush yards allowed per carry

T-25th in 20+ yard rushes allowed

T-30th in 40+ yard rushes allowed

T-6th in forced fumbles on rushing plays

 

EPA has us as the 3rd best rush defense? At best we're somewhere around average (depending on how much weight you give to the forced fumbles). If we didn't have a handful of games where we jumped out to big leads and the opponent had to abandon the run I think the rushing stats would look even worse. 

 

I'm also not a fan of the philosophy to just let teams run on us. If there's a blue-print to beating elite QBs it's to have your own offense put together long clock killing drives to limit the elite QBs possessions. Why would we invite teams to do that to us?