SI Article on Bills Successful Re-load

[FireChans]

29 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Super Bowl era coaches .600 or better in the regular season and never been to a Super Bowl. 

 

Marty, Sean, LeFleur

 

That is the entire list in almost 60 years of Super Bowl era football. 

Fire LaFleur?

[Comebackkid]

4 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

My pendulum swings side to side, and I'll stick with Beane and McDermott instead of some unknown replacement.

But that is just my opinion.

Not saying I'm ready to bail, just that he has done some really good things and some things that have really set us back. 

And like you said, that's just my opinion. 

 

[DrMaxPower]

41 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Super Bowl era coaches .600 or better in the regular season and never been to a Super Bowl. 

 

Marty, Sean, LeFleur

 

That is the entire list in almost 60 years of Super Bowl era football. 

Ask a San Diego fan if firing Marty (who accomplished less than McD in the playoffs) was a mistake.

 

Pretty sure Packers fans aren't clamoring to dump La Fleur.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

As long as we have Josh, it's always gonna be reload vs rebuild.

 

 

True. But it goes beyond just having Josh. We also have a front office duo that puts the right pieces around Josh.

 

Look back through history and you find a lot of terrific QBs having years where their team isn't good even when the QB is healthy.

 

Look at Favre in '99 and '00 and '05, Rodgers in '17 and '18, Marino in '86 - '89, Brees in '07, '08, '12 and '14 - '16, Roethlisberger in '12 and '13, Elway in '90 and '92 to '95. Hell, look at Kurt Warner's career.

 

So far since Allen put it all together, we've been competitive every single year. Even this year when it didn't look like they'd have the team to do it.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Fire LaFleur?

 

I'm not sure, I don't see it as the same situation. LaFleur is an offensive coach, which is far more valuable in todays NFL. He is likely a large reason why Love is even a middle upper. Love isn't carrying the franchise like Josh is either. So parting ways with LaFleur will certainly be a rebuild in a bigger way than McD would (outside of his cooker cutter defensive players). Then Love, it's his second year with him. How much of those playoff failures fall on Rodgers?

 

Not sure on this. But what I do know is his own unit actually performs fairly well in the late playoffs. Around the same level Buffalo's has. It's not the 2nd worse performing unit out of any team since 2020 like the Bills defense is. Further, if you watched the 49ers game last year, yes, LaFleur really cost them in that game. It was a game they should have won. So I would say he is on a warm seat, but not as warm as McMarty. 

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I'm not sure, I don't see it as the same situation. LaFleur is an offensive coach, which is far more valuable in todays NFL. He is likely a large reason why Love is even a middle upper. Love isn't carrying the franchise like Josh is either. So parting ways with LaFleur will certainly be a rebuild in a bigger way than McD would (outside of his cooker cutter defensive players). Then Love, it's his second year with him. How much of those playoff failures fall on Rodgers?

 

Not sure on this. But what I do know is his own unit actually performs fairly well in the late playoffs. Around the same level Buffalo's has. It's not the 2nd worse performing unit out of any team since 2020 like the Bills defense is. Further, if you watched the 49ers game last year, yes, LaFleur really cost them in that game. It was a game they should have won. So I would say he is on a warm seat, but not as warm as McMarty. 

LaFleur had a 4 time MVP at QB and got mortified by Jimmy G and Brock Purdy in the playoffs.

 

If he couldn’t win then, when can he?

Edited 3 hours ago by FireChans

[Thurman#1]

 

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

Super Bowl era coaches .600 or better in the regular season and never been to a Super Bowl. 

 

Marty, Sean, LeFleur

 

That is the entire list in almost 60 years of Super Bowl era football. 

 

19 minutes ago, DrMaxPower said:

Ask a San Diego fan if firing Marty (who accomplished less than McD in the playoffs) was a mistake.

 

Pretty sure Packers fans aren't clamoring to dump La Fleur.

 

 

Yup, this.

 

Oh, and Mikie, you're wrong about that stat. Paul Brown coached plenty of years during the SB era and never made a Super Bowl. Blanton Collier too. George Halas a couple of years.

 

As for Schotty, go back and check how those teams Marty coached did the year before Marty arrived and the year after he left. Hint: not well. Schotty was a terrific coach who made decent rosters into excellent teams. Only had a legit contending roster maybe one or two years.

 

LaFleur and McDermott have plenty of time to go. McDermott, at age 50 probably has 15 years or so left. He'll make it way before then.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

55 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I'm not sure, I don't see it as the same situation. LaFleur is an offensive coach, which is far more valuable in todays NFL. He is likely a large reason why Love is even a middle upper. Love isn't carrying the franchise like Josh is either. So parting ways with LaFleur will certainly be a rebuild in a bigger way than McD would (outside of his cooker cutter defensive players). Then Love, it's his second year with him. How much of those playoff failures fall on Rodgers?

 

Not sure on this. But what I do know is his own unit actually performs fairly well in the late playoffs. Around the same level Buffalo's has. It's not the 2nd worse performing unit out of any team since 2020 like the Bills defense is. Further, if you watched the 49ers game last year, yes, LaFleur really cost them in that game. It was a game they should have won. So I would say he is on a warm seat, but not as warm as McMarty. 

 

 

You're living in the past. For about two years it looked like offensive coaches were far more valuable. The pendulum is well into a swing back the other way, towards equality.

 

And the sample sizes on that chart are way too low. Interesting but not significant.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Thurman#1

[appoo]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

If that's your take, who is responsible for the Bills talent?

 

Primarily luck of the draw with a helping hand from Beane. But even there, 10% of Beane's job is scouting and then praying your luck works out based on the measurables, and 90% managing your roster & salary cap as you assess the talent you have through the season. 

 

When you accept that much of the draft is getting the measurables right, matching it with production, and then just hope and prayer, you realize that franchises aren't "better" than the rest of the NFL, rather thet get their roulette wheel spinning their way, and hire a coach who has great leadership and knows ball.   

 

Andy Reid didn't make a super bowl until had Donovan McNabb surrounded by talent. He didn't win one until he had Mahomes and Kelce.  That doesn't neccesarily make him better than McDermott (I'd take Reid in a heartbeat over McDermott), it means he sets up an elite culture that allows for his talent to develop and perform, and got lucky with key draft pieces

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Super Bowl era coaches .600 or better in the regular season and never been to a Super Bowl. 

 

Marty, Sean, LeFleur

 

That is the entire list in almost 60 years of Super Bowl era football. 

What does this prove? 

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

BTW, the implication is that he'd be doing this without Allen.  

 

If he had the QBs of the drought era, do you think he would be?  

 

 

That's not at all the implication. Talent is the biggest factor far and away. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, balln said:

Yea they’re 1-1 vs kc in playoffs and got a gift late hit on patty cakes to lose that close game. And curb stomped buf in buf.

 

in my eyes they’re way more successful than McD and bills in post season

Their defense shows up in the postseason. But I am not sure that will continue to be the case. Their defense seems to be really bad now. I am not sure they will be able to flip the switch on the that side of ball come postseason. 

[Mikie2times]

 

 

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

LaFleur had a 4 time MVP at QB and got mortified by Jimmy G and Brock Purdy in the playoffs.

 

If he couldn’t win then, when can he?

It's ok to say his name. I know it sounds worse than 4 time MVP. 

 

37 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Yup, this.

 

Oh, and Mikie, you're wrong about that stat. Paul Brown coached plenty of years during the SB era and never made a Super Bowl. Blanton Collier too. George Halas a couple of years.

 

As for Schotty, go back and check how those teams Marty coached did the year before Marty arrived and the year after he left. Hint: not well. Schotty was a terrific coach who made decent rosters into excellent teams. Only had a legit contending roster maybe one or two years.

 

LaFleur and McDermott have plenty of time to go. McDermott, at age 50 probably has 15 years or so left. He'll make it way before then.

 

 

 

 

 

The guys you mention won the pre Super Bowl version of the Super Bowl. What am I supposed to do, condemn Blanton Collier for only coaching a couple years into the Super Bowl era? Halas and Paul Brown have 13 combined NFL championships.  They didn't spend most or even the better part the careers they had in the era I'm talking about. The three I mentioned are all that exist and last time I checked Allen is about 20 times better than anything Marty had. If you think McD is what is standing in the way of a perennial bottom feeder I don't know what to say. I would rather not live in a bubble knowing a 65+ rating at QB has equaled a 73% win rate since 2020. Josh has hit that number every year. 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Mikie2times

[appoo]

I mean firing McDermott won't make things better unless you're bringing in an elite schemer who's a significant upgrade over Joe Brady. At this point that's like 5 people. Sean McVay, Andy Reid, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shannahan and you can maybe argue Mike McDaniels who's club has been destroyed by injuries. 

 

You can talk about 13 seconds, and sure you can criticize that for him - but in general you're talking about issues that impact the game less than 1% of the time. There was nothing Andy Reid or any other coach would do that was going to get past the Chiefs in the other 2 games. The first time we played them we had a significantly worse team. Last season the defense had no business being on the field with the injury issues they had and the Bills probably maxed out what they could do in that game. 2 years ago against the Bengals, you had another set of huge injury issues defensively, and an emotionally drained club due to multiple factors outside their control.  

 

You can point to basically 1 game where another coach may have extracted a win where McDermott's Bills didn't, and keep in mind that game was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history - the Bills played really really well in that game. 

 

Mostly, I just wish Bills fans would appreciate what they have in McDermott. I honestly don't understand how you can live through our history and NOT. 

Edited 2 hours ago by appoo

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, appoo said:

I mean firing McDermott won't make things better unless you're bringing in an elite schemer who's a significant upgrade over Joe Brady. At this point that's like 5 people. Sean McVay, Andy Reid, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shannahan and you can maybe argue Mike McDaniels who's club has been destroyed by injuries. 

 

You can talk about 13 seconds, and sure you can criticize that for him - but in general you're talking about issues that impact the game less than 1% of the time. There was nothing Andy Reid or any other coach would do that was going to get past the Chiefs in the other 2 games. The first time we played them we had a significantly worse team. Last season the defense had no business being on the field with the injury issues they had and the Bills probably maxed out what they could do in that game. 2 years ago against the Bengals, you had another set of huge injury issues defensively, and an emotionally drained club due to multiple factors outside their control.  

 

You can point to basically 1 game where another coach may have extracted a win where McDermott's Bills didn't, and keep in mind that game was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history - the Bills played really really well in that game. 

 

Mostly, I just wish Bills fans would appreciate what they have in McDermott. I honestly don't understand how you can live through our history and NOT. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, appoo said:

I mean firing McDermott won't make things better unless you're bringing in an elite schemer who's a significant upgrade over Joe Brady. At this point that's like 5 people. Sean McVay, Andy Reid, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shannahan and you can maybe argue Mike McDaniels who's club has been destroyed by injuries. 

 

You can talk about 13 seconds, and sure you can criticize that for him - but in general you're talking about issues that impact the game less than 1% of the time. There was nothing Andy Reid or any other coach would do that was going to get past the Chiefs in the other 2 games. The first time we played them we had a significantly worse team. Last season the defense had no business being on the field with the injury issues they had and the Bills probably maxed out what they could do in that game. 2 years ago against the Bengals, you had another set of huge injury issues defensively, and an emotionally drained club due to multiple factors outside their control.  

 

You can point to basically 1 game where another coach may have extracted a win where McDermott's Bills didn't, and keep in mind that game was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history - the Bills played really really well in that game. 

 

Mostly, I just wish Bills fans would appreciate what they have in McDermott. I honestly don't understand how you can live through our history and NOT. 

You think there are only 5 offensive minds better than Brady😂😂holy ***** dude

[appoo]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You think there are only 5 offensive minds better than Brady😂😂holy ***** dude

That are significantly, no doubt better? I guess you can add the Lions OC. But yes. Absolutely. 

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Guaranteed that there will complainers even after a Bills Super Bowl win. 

 

 

 

In what scenario? If they start 0-5 the following year?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

QB records the last 3 years with a 65 or better QBR (excluding Allen)

 

119-43  73.5%

 

Allen's record the last 3 years (all 3 at 65 or better)

 

35-15    70%

 

Lets not overcomplicate things 

 

 

 

I know your numbers don’t go back as far but Brees and the Saints are the outlier. For 5 consecutive years from 2012 to 2016, Brees posted a 65+ QBR but the Saints had a losing record of 39-40 with him playing QB. 
 

Brees never won an MVP despite some monster seasons. He’s a good comp for Allen in that regard. 
 

I believe Brees (3) and Allen (4) are the only two QB’s to have 3+ consecutive seasons with 40+ TD’s. 

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You think there are only 5 offensive minds better than Brady😂😂holy ***** dude

Thanks, I wasn’t going to keep going after that one

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, appoo said:

It's not his fault that people don't seem to want to agree that Talent + Availability is the biggest differentiator between winning and losing in the playoffs

 

So in your opinion the Chiefs who will likely be missing their top 2 WRs and their #2 CB are not favorites to win the AFC this year?

[foreboding]

7 hours ago, DrMaxPower said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills-bond-on-and-off-the-field-paying-dividends-afc-east

 

Good article on the foundations that have allowed the Bills to reload instead of rebuild.

 

I think sometimes we are too close to the situation to fully appreciate what we have. For as much as people want to crap on McD, he's one of the best in the league and we'd be hard pressed to replace him with somebody equal, let alone an improvement.

Yep. No way I'd let him go unless Andy Ried suddenly dislikes Pat Mahommes.