The Transformative 2022 Draft

[Cray51]

11 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Decent draft yes. Transformative? Heck look at KC that same year - Pacheco, Karlaftis, McDuffie, Cook, Moore, Chenal, Watson...that is much closer to transformative. 

I mean, they are both pretty transformative drafts.

Mcduffie is a slight > to Bernard

Rousseau is a slight > to Karlaftis (MISSED THAT THIS WAS 2021 - Disregard!)

Pacheco = Cook

Bernard slight > to Chenal

Shakir big > to Moore

Then you have Araiza who is a starting punter in the league and Elam who looks to be our future CB2 against Watson who is their CB2 and Cook/Williams.

 

I think the Chiefs drafted the best player out of the bunch with McDuffie.  However, I think the Bills draft a better set of core starters with Shakir/Bernard/Cook/Benford

 

So not sure why there is a gap for you from Decent to Transformative...

Edited November 4 by Cray51

[TBBills Fan]

While no GM is perfect, Beane does a really good job with the draft

[DJB]

We need another home run draft this year to keep the pipe line stocked 

 

Specifically and hopefully it’s a DE 

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, Cray51 said:

Agreed.  This is the new core.  They will get 4-6 year deals each, and I'd think Beane will let other aging players go to make sure these guys stick around (Knox, Milano, Daquan Jones, Douglas).

The one player that will be the "surprise" is Cook.  Beane will continue with his running back by committee approach and Cook can go sign for good money somewhere else.

I cannot foresee the Bills outright cutting Dawson Knox. I know he makes a lot, but they do value him. Although, I can see them asking him to take a pay cut.

 

The others you mentioned, Jones, Douglas & Milano, I can see being released.

[CNYfan]

39 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

I cannot foresee the Bills outright cutting Dawson Knox. I know he makes a lot, but they do value him. Although, I can see them asking him to take a pay cut.

 

The others you mentioned, Jones, Douglas & Milano, I can see being released.

I believe Douglas if not re-signed will garner a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.

Jones has had a tough year and may be near the end.  

Knox, imo, will be around for his contract.

Milano I will have to wait and see on.   The FO may give him next year to see what it looks like healthy, not sure.  

[ghostwriter]

4 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Name me one WR in the league who has a better catch percentage as a WR than Shakir this season (93.3%) and career (82.7%) with a minimum of 30 catches. You can't.

 

Potential? He IS an All-Pro RIGHT NOW.

Shakir reminds me a lot of Cole Beasley with better hands and elite speed.

22 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I believe Douglas if not re-signed will garner a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.

Jones has had a tough year and may be near the end.  

Knox, imo, will be around for his contract.

Milano I will have to wait and see on.   The FO may give him next year to see what it looks like healthy, not sure.  

I hope Douglas is extended, same goes for Cooper and Rousseau too. We also have Benford to think about.

[Mark Vader]

45 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I believe Douglas if not re-signed will garner a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.

Jones has had a tough year and may be near the end.  

Knox, imo, will be around for his contract.

Milano I will have to wait and see on.   The FO may give him next year to see what it looks like healthy, not sure.  

It could turn out this way too. 

 

I don't know what salary cap implications would be in cutting Milano. So, that is a wait-and-see.

[billsfan89]

It’s a very very good draft. 4 starters and 2 solid reserves is a great return on any draft let alone a draft that wasn’t heavy on premium selections.

 

I know Elam hasn’t had a great time but I think he’s a quality backup and so is Spector. But Benford and Bernard and two high end starters on offense while Shakir and Cook are quality starters on offense.

[BillsFanForever19]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In order of priority for me:

 

1. Benford

2. Rousseau

3. Bernard

4. Shakir

5. Cook

 

I agree that Benford is 1, no lower than 2. And I understand Cook, being at maybe the most devalued position (outside of Special Teams) being last. But i'm surprised to see Shakir so low. Wide Reciever is one of the most important positions to retain in my opinion (especially with our core) and with the skills he's shown, specifically being INCREDIBLY slippery and getting Yards After Catch being extremely good, I think he's at the top of people to retain. I think of the list of 5 - Shakir, Benford, and Rousseau are must retains. Bernard.... I go back and forth on him. There's times he's extremely good. Then there's times where he's not. And then he seems to get banged up a lot, perhaps for being undersized. I'd like to retain him (like everyone on this list) - but I have him outside the Top 3.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I agree that Benford is 1, no lower than 2. And I understand Cook, being at maybe the most devalued position (outside of Special Teams) being last. But i'm surprised to see Shakir so low. Wide Reciever is one of the most important positions to retain in my opinion (especially with our core) and with the skills he's shown, specifically being INCREDIBLY slippery and getting Yards After Catch being extremely good, I think he's at the top of people to retain. I think of the list of 5 - Shakir, Benford, and Rousseau are must retains. Bernard.... I go back and forth on him. There's times he's extremely good. Then there's times where he's not. And then he seems to get banged up a lot, perhaps for being undersized. I'd like to retain him (like everyone on this list) - but I have him outside the Top 3.

The argument against Shakir is that the WR market is so insane, the money he will be commanding is not going to be "worth" his play as an excellent slot-only guy.

 

And Shakir has been EXCELLENT. He may be up there with the best slots in the game, and he's still quite young.

 

For reference, when Cole Beasley signed with Buffalo in 2019, he was the 38th highest paid WR. He probably wasn't as good as Shakir will be when he's an FA, but that was the money he commanded. He was making $7.25M AAV. The top 10 were all making around $9-$10M more AAV.

 

The 38th highest paid WR in the NFL currently is our own Curtis Samuel for reference. Shakir ain't signing $8M per. The top 23 are all making $12M to $27M more.

 

Khalil is going to dictate top 20 ish money which will push him to around $20M a year imo. And that's right around where I would say they should let him walk.

 

I don't think they will. The WR room will hopefully have another rookie scale guy playing a significant role along with Coleman, and they will use their low contracts to justify paying Shakir as the only true vet producer in the room. Not sure its a good idea, but they will almost certainly pay him unless he asks for ASB money imo.

[MarlinTheMagician]

On Cook, I don't think it is foregone that he's gone.  I think it is a question of price to pay vs cost to replace.  Taking a 2d or 3rd rounder to complement Davis costs us a potential starter elsewhere, so if the price was right I could envision Beane cooking up a second contract.  If the market is greater than the cost to replace in draft capital and salary slot as weighed by Beane, the Cook will have to take the show on the road.

[JP51]

On 11/4/2024 at 1:49 AM, jwhit34 said:

I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class.

 

A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks:

 

Round 1 - Elam

2 - Cook

3 - Bernard

5 - Shakir

6 - Araiza

6 - Benford

6 - Tenuta

7 - Spector

 

This is one heck of a draft:

• 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?)
• Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards.
• 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams.
• 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza).
• Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads.

 

All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. 

 

A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins.

 

Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? 

 

By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year):

• All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills
• Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6)

 

How many other teams have done better? 

 

One of our better ones... Benford in the 6th was huge, along with Shak in the 5th... obviously Bernard and Cook worked out nicely too... but getting starters Day 3 especially pro bowl caliber... makes up for misses like Elam. 

[DCofNC]

On 11/4/2024 at 12:53 PM, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Name me one WR in the league who has a better catch percentage as a WR than Shakir this season (93.3%) and career (82.7%) with a minimum of 30 catches. You can't.

 

Potential? He IS an All-Pro RIGHT NOW.

No, he’s just not.  If you take all 2.5 of his seasons COMBINED, he doesn’t have the stats to be All-Pro.  This year, he’s barely even on pace for 1k yards (17 games projection), with about 90 catches and 5 TDs. and it’s his “break out” year.   He’s good, one of my favorites on the team, but Pro Bowler is a stretch and All Pro is absolutely insane.   It would be a great year for him as he has stepped up a lot if he can pull in 1k yards on 90 catches.  I thought he would have a shot at 75 and 800 this year, he’s doing a bit more, that’s awesome.  I also thought Samuel would be getting some of his targets, unfortunately, Samuel has been one of the bigger busts of the season thus far.

 

Love the guy, tough as nails, catches everything and makes things happen with the ball in his hands, but he’s no where near the elite level of Jefferson, Lamb, etc to be considered in the All Pro conversation.

7 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

On Cook, I don't think it is foregone that he's gone.  I think it is a question of price to pay vs cost to replace.  Taking a 2d or 3rd rounder to complement Davis costs us a potential starter elsewhere, so if the price was right I could envision Beane cooking up a second contract.  If the market is greater than the cost to replace in draft capital and salary slot as weighed by Beane, the Cook will have to take the show on the road.

Cook is gone, Davis can replace him effectively as the lead and Johnson is more than capable as a back up.  You can fill the RB stable with vet min guys and be fine.  If Cook was the passing threat they want him to be, he’d be tougher to replace, but he’s inconsistent at best on that front.  You have to let a guy like him walk, he’s not worth what he will be paid, which will likely be in the 10M range.

[DCofNC]

On 11/4/2024 at 7:44 PM, FireChans said:

The argument against Shakir is that the WR market is so insane, the money he will be commanding is not going to be "worth" his play as an excellent slot-only guy.

 

And Shakir has been EXCELLENT. He may be up there with the best slots in the game, and he's still quite young.

 

For reference, when Cole Beasley signed with Buffalo in 2019, he was the 38th highest paid WR. He probably wasn't as good as Shakir will be when he's an FA, but that was the money he commanded. He was making $7.25M AAV. The top 10 were all making around $9-$10M more AAV.

 

The 38th highest paid WR in the NFL currently is our own Curtis Samuel for reference. Shakir ain't signing $8M per. The top 23 are all making $12M to $27M more.

 

Khalil is going to dictate top 20 ish money which will push him to around $20M a year imo. And that's right around where I would say they should let him walk.

 

I don't think they will. The WR room will hopefully have another rookie scale guy playing a significant role along with Coleman, and they will use their low contracts to justify paying Shakir as the only true vet producer in the room. Not sure it’s  a good idea, but they will almost certainly pay him unless he asks for ASB money imo.

I hate it, but you are spot on and I wouldn’t pay him 20+, but someone probably will. If he can command a few more targets, he’s going to have stats that push the conversation to that range.   This is one of the many reasons I thought Beane dropped the ball not double dipping at WR this past draft. 

[90sBills]

On 11/4/2024 at 12:27 PM, ngbills said:

Decent draft yes. Transformative? Heck look at KC that same year - Pacheco, Karlaftis, McDuffie, Cook, Moore, Chenal, Watson...that is much closer to transformative. 

Both teams did great. KC’s class stood out more because their rookies helped bring home a Lombardi that season. 

[The Jokeman]

On 11/4/2024 at 3:27 PM, ngbills said:

Decent draft yes. Transformative? Heck look at KC that same year - Pacheco, Karlaftis, McDuffie, Cook, Moore, Chenal, Watson...that is much closer to transformative. 

James Cook has more receptions than Skyy More. Just sayin'.

[Mister Defense]

 

Yup, an A, A+ actually. And definitely needed to put this in its own thread, not buried in another.  Great move, as now many more will read it.

 

4 high caliber starting players, all of which are already integral parts of an excellent team, and all/most may be consistent Pro Bowlers.

 

Of course, it will not stop the Beane or McDermott haters, and we all know that, but they aren't relevant to conversations like this or about the Bills.

 

Thanks for the info, work put in.  Greatly appreciated.

 

[The Jokeman]

On 11/4/2024 at 5:30 PM, ghostwriter said:

Shakir reminds me a lot of Cole Beasley with better hands and elite speed.

I hope Douglas is extended, same goes for Cooper and Rousseau too. We also have Benford to think about.

Shakir is also bigger than Beasley.