The Transformative 2022 Draft

[jwhit34]

I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class.

 

A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks:

 

Round 1 - Elam

2 - Cook

3 - Bernard

5 - Shakir

6 - Araiza

6 - Benford

6 - Tenuta

7 - Spector

 

This is one heck of a draft:

• 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?)
• Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards.
• 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams.
• 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza).
• Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads.

 

All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. 

 

A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins.

 

Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? 

 

By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year):

• All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills
• Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6)

 

How many other teams have done better? 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

It is an all timer Draft, even with the Elam pick in Round 1. Instead of getting Day 1 Talent out of our 1st Round CB and Day 3 Talent out of our 7th Round CB - we got Day 1 Talent out of our 7th Round CB and Day 3 Talent out of our 1st Round CB. It evens out.

 

We've got the rest of this year and next year with all of these guys. But after that, we're really going to have a heck of a time getting them all back.

 

Khalil Shakir, Greg Rousseau (bc of the 5th year option), Christian Benford, James Cook, and Terrel Bernard are all scheduled to be Free Agents after next season. We're probably going to want to get a head start on some of them this coming offseason.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

It is an all timer Draft, even with the Elam pick in Round 1. Instead of getting Day 1 Talent out of our 1st Round CB and Day 3 Talent out of our 7th Round CB - we got Day 1 Talent out of our 7th Round CB and Day 3 Talent out of our 1st Round CB. It evens out.

 

We've got the rest of this year and next year with all of these guys. But after that, we're really going to have a heck of a time getting them all back.

 

Khalil Shakir, Greg Rousseau (bc of the 5th year option), Christian Benford, James Cook, and Terrel Bernard are all scheduled to be Free Agents after next season. We're probably going to want to get a head start on some of them this coming offseason.

 

In order of priority for me:

 

1. Benford

2. Rousseau

3. Bernard

4. Shakir

5. Cook

[shane nelson]

Well said!!

 

[JerseyBills]

6 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class.

 

A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks:

 

Round 1 - Elam

2 - Cook

3 - Bernard

5 - Shakir

6 - Araiza

6 - Benford

6 - Tenuta

7 - Spector

 

This is one heck of a draft:

• 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?)
• Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards.
• 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams.
• 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza).
• Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads.

 

All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. 

 

A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins.

 

Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? 

 

By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year):

• All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills
• Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6)

 

How many other teams have done better? 

 

Shakir is phenomenal 

 

Reminds me of Kupp in his prime,  when Coop is back , watch out..

[MarlinTheMagician]

2023

 

Kincaid

Torrence

Dorian Williams

 

And I think 2024 may be his best of these three drafts, too early to tell.  We are loaded with young talent.  Thank you Mr. Beane!

[RyanC883]

fantastic draft.  going to need to hit on a few replacements for those guys next year because keeping them all will be hard. 

Edited 14 hours ago by RyanC883

[JohnNord]

7 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class.

 

A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks:

 

Round 1 - Elam

2 - Cook

3 - Bernard

5 - Shakir

6 - Araiza

6 - Benford

6 - Tenuta

7 - Spector

 

This is one heck of a draft:

• 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?)
• Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards.
• 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams.
• 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza).
• Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads.

 

All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. 

 

A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins.

 

Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? 

 

By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year):

• All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills
• Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6)

 

How many other teams have done better? 

 

I think that this draft highlights the strengths of the drafts under Brandon Beane’s squad.  They were able to draft really well in the mid-to-late rounds with Bernard, Shakir, and Benford as high quality starters.   Cook also was a hit for a late 2nd round selection.  
 

I disagree a bit on Elam.  I’m not sure he’d be a starter on other teams but it’s hard to tell since he’s only played sporadically.  

 

Also if a draft pick becomes a star under a different regime, I don’t think you can give the GM who drafted them credit for the pick.  
 

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

Shakir is phenomenal 

 

Reminds me of Kupp in his prime,  when Coop is back , watch out..

Yes, I think Shakir could have All-Pro potential 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Yes, I think Shakir could have All-Pro potential 

 

Name me one WR in the league who has a better catch percentage as a WR than Shakir this season (93.3%) and career (82.7%) with a minimum of 30 catches. You can't.

 

Potential? He IS an All-Pro RIGHT NOW.

[Rigotz]

The draft looks like an A++ if you re-arrange two guys:

 

Round 1 - Benford - impact Cornerback

Round 2 - Cook - impact RB

Round 3 - Bernard - team captain

Round 5 - Shakir - reliable slot weapon

Round 6 - Elam - great depth and raw talent

Round 7 - Spector - solid LB depth

 

Either way, fantastic draft

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In order of priority for me:

 

1. Benford

2. Rousseau

3. Bernard

4. Shakir

5. Cook

Agreed- but I would flip flop Shakir and Bernard if Bernard goes down with another injury.  I love the dude.  Helluva LB, leader and person.  Just seems like he’s always going to be injured. That said, I don’t think there’s much chance that McD would let him go

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Agreed- but I would flip flop Shakir and Bernard if Bernard goes down with another injury.  I love the dude.  Helluva LB, leader and person.  Just seems like he’s always going to be injured. That said, I don’t think there’s much chance that McD would let him go

 

I think the Bills will try very hard to sign all the top 4 on my list.

[Draconator]

Isn't Beane supposed to be a horrible GM who doesn't know how to draft? I read that here so it must be true.

[Cray51]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Bills will try very hard to sign all the top 4 on my list.

Agreed.  This is the new core.  They will get 4-6 year deals each, and I'd think Beane will let other aging players go to make sure these guys stick around (Knox, Milano, Daquan Jones, Douglas).

The one player that will be the "surprise" is Cook.  Beane will continue with his running back by committee approach and Cook can go sign for good money somewhere else.

[Process]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Bills will try very hard to sign all the top 4 on my list.

Hope they can pull it off, would love for all 4 to stick around. 

 

After 2025 is also when we can get out of some bad contracts I believe? Von, Dawson, Jones, Samuel. Not sure on all of these. Hopefully that will help.

Edited 8 hours ago by Process

[Cray51]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Hope they can pull it off, would love for all 4 to stick around. 

 

After 2025 is also when we can get out of some bad contracts I believe? Von, Dawson, Jones, Samuel. Not sure on all of these. Hopefully that will help.

If I'm reading things right, Von + Knox + Samuel cut in 2025 offseason leading into 2026 would result in $34M in cash off the books (Cap-dead cap).  Would think that would be enough to sign Bernard +Shakir long term.  Then use the other money to try to get Rousseau and Benford done.  Maybe another extension for Allen to kick money down the road.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

Agreed.  This is the new core.  They will get 4-6 year deals each, and I'd think Beane will let other aging players go to make sure these guys stick around (Knox, Milano, Daquan Jones, Douglas).

The one player that will be the "surprise" is Cook.  Beane will continue with his running back by committee approach and Cook can go sign for good money somewhere else.

 

I like the "new core" description. I think the last 3 drafts the Bills have picked up some really good young players. What they need is one or two of them to really elevate to "star" status for Allen era II. The Poyer, Hyde, White, Diggs, Morse, Milano, Dawkins core was great for this franchise. No doubt. But hopefully as this new core matures into those leadership roles they can help us get over the hump. 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Bills will try very hard to sign all the top 4 on my list.

Agreed.  Love me some James Cook but paying a RB would be a bad idea.  Even worse idea knowing we have Ray Davis.  

[ngbills]

Decent draft yes. Transformative? Heck look at KC that same year - Pacheco, Karlaftis, McDuffie, Cook, Moore, Chenal, Watson...that is much closer to transformative.