The decision to go for the FG - right or wrong?

[That's No Moon]

6 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He made the kick, amazing moment....but was it the right decision?  Be honest, how many of you were holding your palms up saying what is he doing?   If he misses that kick, I think he pitchforks are in McDermott more than they are now.  I used to play poker and the whole with with that game which has a luck factor is you have to evaluate your decision at the time you make the decision, the outcome or what might have come if the rabbit camera picked up your one outer is irrelevant.   

 

If he misses that kick, Miami has 5 seconds and a timeout from the Bills 49, which is a 66 yard kick, could they have gotten 5 yards and their own look at a 61 yarder?  I think they could have.  Curious what others thoughts are on this topic, I know a bunch will not want to engage because he made it.  The people who second guess every outcome that goes the wrong way seem to be silent on almost every decision that that has a positive outcome for the Bills.

I think the question is was it the right call for Miami to take 1 instead of going for 2 after they scored.  If they go for 2 and miss they still have timeouts to get the ball back.  If they go for 2 and make it the Bills play calling is different that whole drive knowing they NEED 3. Additionally, Bass' brain is in an ENTIRELY different place if they need that kick to not lose rather than to win.  With it being a tie game Bass had the freedom to miss.  He could go out and just kick because nobody legitimately would hold missing a 61 yarder against him.  Now if he NEEDS that 61 yarder to win the game? Definitely could have gone differently.

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think they had one left, I think the move was to hold it in case he missed.  Is there any evidence icing works?

Icing works in two ways. 
 

you upset their concentration 

it is hard for a kicker to make 2 back to back 60 yard FGs

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

The wrong choice was McDaniel not freezing the kicker with 2 timeouts left. It's a 61 yard kick! Make him try it twice! His leg woulda been a limp noodle by his 3rd attempt. 

 

Right choice to kick though. We all know he's got the leg, he's just inconsistent. 

Data shows icing the kicker doesn't work but given how shaky Bass has been I would've called a timeout and made him think about it.  

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

Icing works in two ways. 
 

you upset their concentration 

it is hard for a kicker to make 2 back to back 60 yard FGs

Usually they try and call the timeout so they don’t get the “practice” kick and my question is about data.   Is the percentage of good fgs better or worse with icing.  I understand the theory of it….

Edited November 4 by Matt_In_NH

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

Icing works in two ways. 
 

you upset their concentration 

it is hard for a kicker to make 2 back to back 60 yard FGs

 

I recall a game once at the Ralph. It was Trent Edwards first game as the starter against the Dallas Cowboys on MNF.  it came down to the end and Dallas lined up to kick a long game winning 53 yard FG. Coach Jauron called a time out at the last second to "ice the kicker". But the Dallas still snapped the ball cuz it was called right before the snap they didn't know it.  The kicker made it.  After the time out he made it again and we lost.

 

Kickers say they like it because it gives them a little more time at mentally prepare and some seven get a free swing practice try.  I think it's more of  oh well what the neck we're desperate we'll try anything kind of deal. What have you got to lose?

 

I bet today's legend if the game George Wilson remembers that game as he picked off Tony Romo a couple of times.

[RkFast]

“The Bills shouldn’t have tried to score there cause that means Miami might try to score if the Bills didn’t.“

 

Huh????

[without a drought]

This fanbase is tiresome.

[JP51]

Not gonna lie...  scene in my house.... whole group of people... dont make it... 4th down.... 

 

Me: You gotta punt this... there is no way I am taking a low percentage kick at risk of giving it back to the Dolphins

Me: WTF !!! You are not going to kick this... you idiot! They are gonna give this thing back and lose this game

(they line up)

Me: Stupid call ! Dumb @ss call WTF

(the snap)

Me: I dont believe this crap he is really gonna do this! (I was hoping we were gonna try to draw them Offside)

(put down/kick)

Me: this is the dumbest call ever in the history of the game 

(watching it sail thru)

Me: What a brilliant call... the man is a genius! I would of done the same thing ... He just knew ma boy Tyler (who I have been calling for his head) would mic drop this kick!

Rest of the Room: Abject laughter with random ####### comments thrown in.... LOL 

Edited November 4 by JP51

[BobbyC81]

14 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He made the kick, amazing moment....but was it the right decision?  Be honest, how many of you were holding your palms up saying what is he doing?   If he misses that kick, I think he pitchforks are in McDermott more than they are now.  I used to play poker and the whole with with that game which has a luck factor is you have to evaluate your decision at the time you make the decision, the outcome or what might have come if the rabbit camera picked up your one outer is irrelevant.   

 

If he misses that kick, Miami has 5 seconds and a timeout from the Bills 49, which is a 66 yard kick, could they have gotten 5 yards and their own look at a 61 yarder?  I think they could have.  Curious what others thoughts are on this topic, I know a bunch will not want to engage because he made it.  The people who second guess every outcome that goes the wrong way seem to be silent on almost every decision that that has a positive outcome for the Bills.

You kidding?  Think of the history of this team.  They play pass defense for the sidelines and the Jets complete a Hail Mary.  They play deep and Kelce gets 20 yards.

 

Odds are that if the FG was missed, a pass to Achane would get 10 to 15 yards.  The clock would show 0 but the ref would say to put one second on the clock. Or they would call a penalty on the Bills defense.  Miami would then kick a game winning FG

[Matt_In_NH]

2 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

You kidding?  Think of the history of this team.  They play pass defense for the sidelines and the Jets complete a Hail Mary.  They play deep and Kelce gets 20 yards.

 

Odds are that if the FG was missed, a pass to Achane would get 10 to 15 yards.  The clock would show 0 but the ref would say to put one second on the clock. Or they would call a penalty on the Bills defense.  Miami would then kick a game winning FG

lol.  People (not you) are mis interpreting this thread.  I think you could have argued for punt, FG Hail Mary attempt there. And all three were not great for various reasons. My point is to evaluate decisions based on the info when the decision was made and not based on results.  Most people just go by the results and then B word when they don’t like said results.  It was a close call, glad he went for the fg because that was an awesome moment.  

[Mister Defense]

11 hours ago, Orlando Buffalo said:

If Bass has looked good at practice you absolutely kick it, McD has obviously seen improvement this week or he would not have kicked it. 

 

Yup.

 

And the cutting of his back up is likely evidence that this was the case.

 

 

[PoundingDog]

8 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

I think the question is was it the right call for Miami to take 1 instead of going for 2 after they scored

There is no question for me. Miami is going for 1 period. You know Buffalo is driving for a field goal either way. In a tie game, Buffalo might be more conservative actually. The situation is they need a TD so they can't really intentionally get the clock down - they have to take any opportunity presented itself for a score.

 

If they don't get 2, the game is pretty much over despite the fact they have 3 TOs. The Bills had no problem moving the ball between the 20s, even in the first half. High probability the Bills get a 1st down.

[GolfandBills]

15 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He made the kick, amazing moment....but was it the right decision?  Be honest, how many of you were holding your palms up saying what is he doing?   If he misses that kick, I think he pitchforks are in McDermott more than they are now.  I used to play poker and the whole with with that game which has a luck factor is you have to evaluate your decision at the time you make the decision, the outcome or what might have come if the rabbit camera picked up your one outer is irrelevant.   

 

If he misses that kick, Miami has 5 seconds and a timeout from the Bills 49, which is a 66 yard kick, could they have gotten 5 yards and their own look at a 61 yarder?  I think they could have.  Curious what others thoughts are on this topic, I know a bunch will not want to engage because he made it.  The people who second guess every outcome that goes the wrong way seem to be silent on almost every decision that that has a positive outcome for the Bills.

Yes it was the right choice.  Carry on

[Ralonzo]

15 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He made the kick, amazing moment....but was it the right decision?  Be honest, how many of you were holding your palms up saying what is he doing?   If he misses that kick, I think he pitchforks are in McDermott more than they are now.  I used to play poker and the whole with with that game which has a luck factor is you have to evaluate your decision at the time you make the decision, the outcome or what might have come if the rabbit camera picked up your one outer is irrelevant.   

 

If he misses that kick, Miami has 5 seconds and a timeout from the Bills 49, which is a 66 yard kick, could they have gotten 5 yards and their own look at a 61 yarder?  I think they could have.  Curious what others thoughts are on this topic, I know a bunch will not want to engage because he made it.  The people who second guess every outcome that goes the wrong way seem to be silent on almost every decision that that has a positive outcome for the Bills.

 

Seems like McD (finally) figured out to take the wind for the 4th quarter, since Miami got the ball to start the 2nd half. Because of that, even on a relatively calm day (for OP - 10mph), a wind-aided 61-yarder is going to be a completely different animal than a 66-yarder the other way. Even a 3-4 second play to get 6-7 yards, in the other direction, is much less of a probability than a 60-yarder the direction Bass was kicking. Every kickoff that direction was going out of the end zone, it was a real thing.

 

In this case, I think it was very good game day decision making from McD, and it paid off with a W.

Edited November 4 by Ralonzo

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Seems like McD (finally) figured out to take the wind for the 4th quarter, since Miami got the ball to start the 2nd half. Because of that, even on a relatively calm day (for OP - 10mph), a wind-aided 61-yarder is going to be a completely different animal than a 66-yarder the other way. Even a 3-4 second play to get 6-7 yards, in the other direction, is much less of a probability than a 60-yarder the direction Bass was kicking. Every kickoff that direction was going out of the end zone, it was a real thing.

 

In this case, I think it was very good game day decision making from McD, and it paid off with a W.

I thought it was INTO the wind not with the wind?

[Ralonzo]

19 minutes ago, PoundingDog said:

There is no question for me. Miami is going for 1 period. You know Buffalo is driving for a field goal either way. In a tie game, Buffalo might be more conservative actually. The situation is they need a TD so they can't really intentionally get the clock down - they have to take any opportunity presented itself for a score.

 

If they don't get 2, the game is pretty much over despite the fact they have 3 TOs. The Bills had no problem moving the ball between the 20s, even in the first half. High probability the Bills get a 1st down.

 

Nice point you make here. There are 4 outcomes for Miami:

 

1) Go for 2 and miss. Fair probability of that. Game is essentially over.

2) Go for 1 and miss. Very low probability of that. Game is essentially over.

3) Go for 2 and make it. Miami has the lead, Bills have the ball. Game situation for the Bills is, they MUST score on the next drive. Every set of downs is 4-down.

4) Go for 1 and make it. Tie game, and you give the Bills a choice to make on 4th down where they may not go for it on 4th down and punting is a real possibility.

 

Situationally, as dangerous as the Bills offense had been in the 2nd half, you can argue a strategic advantage to NOT forcing them to go offense on all 4 downs every series, and force a game-situation decision for 4th downs.

4 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I thought it was INTO the wind not with the wind?

 

I thought the kickoffs in that direction were going deeper, or I might have been drunk.

[Alphadawg7]

 5 pages?  First reply should have been "Yes."  Then...

 

/endthread.

 

Make or miss, you 100% go for the win when your kicker has the leg to kick it that far.  The fact this had to be discussed for 5 pages is a little dumbfounding TBH.  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 5 pages?  First reply should have been "Yes."  Then...

 

/endthread.

 

Make or miss, you 100% go for the win when your kicker has the leg to kick it that far.  The fact this had to be discussed for 5 pages is a little dumbfounding TBH.  

 

You 

Play

To

Win

The

Game

[Rigotz]

What is your alternative? 

 

10 seconds left with no time outs ... you probably can't get the 1st without going to OT.

 

So the other option is Hail Mary. Significantly lower probability.

 

It was the right call at the time and turned out to be the right call now.

[Billsatlastin2018]

9 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

I think the question is was it the right call for Miami to take 1 instead of going for 2 after they scored.  If they go for 2 and miss they still have timeouts to get the ball back.  If they go for 2 and make it the Bills play calling is different that whole drive knowing they NEED 3. Additionally, Bass' brain is in an ENTIRELY different place if they need that kick to not lose rather than to win.  With it being a tie game Bass had the freedom to miss.  He could go out and just kick because nobody legitimately would hold missing a 61 yarder against him.  Now if he NEEDS that 61 yarder to win the game? Definitely could have gone differently.

100%!

 

As the Fish were matriculating down the field, I messaged my Sis as follows… “What really worries me here is, if they score, they’re going for 2 for the Win”

 

If your Surname commences with ‘McD’, is your end of game brain reduced to being the village eedgit as HC?

 

McSuntan… dude you’re 2-5, with your season AND perhaps your JOB on the line! You have been almost skunked during the Josh Allen era except where you subjected the Bills to heat stroke and even that was because there was clock mismanagement by our McD… to not allow a winning FG try.

 

You cannot give #17 the ball and 1:38 and 2 TOs in a Tie game and roll the die he’s gonna screw it up!

 

You MUST play for the W there!

 

If the seasonal positions were reversed, I would have gone crazy if McClappy did the same.